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Gold - $2,000 Is a Death TrapThis is a follow up to my June 2 call for a new ATH on Gold, that will be bearish, instead of bullish: Gold - When A New ATH Prints, Will You Get Trapped? In the process of tracking this, price action did not meet expectations (in the sense that it has not traded low enough), and so I began to reconsider the overall topography of the market. Also, right now, I have an open call on silver for $33: Silver - 33 Moons However, as price has not traded down the levels I regard as requisite to trigger a bull impulse, while I still believe that these high prices will manifest in the future, the market makers desire lower prices first. One thing to note about gold is both the monthly and weekly bars are actually bearish despite price having formed a long-term triple top: But in the shorter term (1H-4H-1D) candles, gold is clearly heading towards higher prices after bouncing exactly over $1,900. As I've said before, one of the problems with a metals bull market right now is that Xi Jinping and the Chinese government (the Chinese Communist Party) have amassed a large amount of gold in recent months. China's economy is doing extremely poorly following the decimation of the Party by Wuhan Pneumonia and the CCP faces threats on all sides, especially from the International Rules Based Order who now chatters about "de-risking" from China. Since the United States tends to be the market maker of everything, this is trouble for China's central bank. Large stocks of gold and a heavily declining price will put the regime in a great deal of trouble, depleting the money it has available for buying people off. And this is a huge geopolitical threat, for Xi Jinping has one Trump card to play: throw away the CCP in the middle of Beijing time, which is the U.S. night, and weaponize the 24-year-long persecution and genocide against Falun Dafa (Falun Gong) meditation, which was launched by Jiang Zemin and its band of toad cronies in Shanghai. Another thing to note is since the pandemic crash, BUT BEFORE 2022, gold has had something of an inverse covariance with the SPX and the SPX has an inverse covariance with the USD. But after 2022, gold has traded mostly in lockstep with the SPX, although in recent days and weeks that has begun to decouple. Looking at the daily covariance, gold and the USD have an inverse covariance with the overextended equities market: And I anticipate a USD rally, as I state here: DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia Since I believe what the market makers have in store for us is a significant downtrend in the equities market until September: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' Gold setting a new high right now doesn't make sense. And so what I believe will happen is the target for the algorithm right now is $2,030, and it amounts to a short squeeze/bull trap. This will both take out the June high and draw in buyside demand over the $2,000 level, since retail goldbugs are always pining for a new all time high. But the rally will fail, again, and the markets at large will fail again (except for Natural Gas). Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember Her And as the rally fails we'll see lower prices. Probably ending in the $1,800 range. This amounts to a 10%~ drop and is pretty painful if you're sitting leveraged long and even worse if you're leveraged on call options. If $1,800 is violated, then the top is probably already in, in my opinion. So, be careful and make sure you practice social distancing from atheism, Marxist-Leninism, the Theory of Evolution, QAnon, and the CCP itself. Long gold is about returning to tradition, and mankind's Heaven sent traditions are even more luminous than an entire vault of 100.00% pure AU.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by LordWrymouth
1
VIX - The 72-Handle PreludeI will reiterate again, as I have in my past posts, notably: Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal That if you are bullish on US equities into the future and want to see a healthy economy into '24 and '25, you DO NOT want to see a new all time high to be set yet. Instead, you want a correction. A major correction is just that: a correction. A correction gives a number of elements an opportunity to rebalance and reload so that a new phase of markup, and thus profits for longs, can unfold. The VIX controls a lot of things, namely the price of options. Really, what this means for most people is it controls the price of "protection," i.e. puts. And since the VIX is now trading at a low not seen since June of '21 and in an area of accumulation that spanned 3 years between '18 and '20, if you think a new all time high on equities is coming, you're actually saying that VIX is going to trade to 5. And you may very well be right. It's a very difficult situation. However, net liquidity is coming out of the system, and the indexes and equities rallied from mid-June to mid-August of last year. The algorithm rarely runs the same pattern at the same time twice. Moreover, there's a lot of problems brewing in this world with the War in Ukraine connected to Vladimir Putin and the situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping still at the helm of the notorious and unforgivable Chinese Communist Party. There are handles a major arranged correction in the markets are not going to print on VIX. 1. VIX will not print GFC highs 2. VIX will not print the millennial-titled "Coronavirus Disease 2019" highs 3. VIX will not print 50-handles Instead, VIX, in my opinion, will print a 72-handle. One of the truths in the market place is the easiest and most consistent money is not only that the market goes up, but selling volatility after the dust on periodical propaganda has settled is free money. A free money train always continues and you're never a part of it because you're trying to long MULN and Bed Bloodbath and Beyond for a MOASS. So, let's take a look at the ETFs. There are some notable pieces of evidence in the price action that show something ought to change, and quickly. The first is in the SVXY inverse VIX ETF, which has taken out the pre-COVID high, and by a lot. LT short seller funds: they dead. But a more notable case is that of the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF It was 5:1 reverse split to start the year, had one bounce during the bank collapse hysteria, and then lost 80% of its value. UVIX trades under $1 pre-split. You're looking for a MOASS on shitcoins, but here's a real opportunity. Notable is also that HUV, the Toronto Stock Exchange VIX (non-levered bull) ETF, is in a similar boat. It 6:1 reverse split in February, had one bounce, and lost half its value, trading to barely over $3 pre-split. You can care about Canada because there are arbitrage opportunities with the USDCAD currency pair and because our holidays and your holidays are not the same, like "Juneteenth," and so there is opportunity in manipulation. What I can say is that there's an argument, if nothing else, to long volatility in extreme situations as a way of defending your long positions. People are willing to allocate 40 percent of their portfolio to bonds that just don't go up when the market pumps and don't go up when the market goes down. So why not hedge with volatility? That being said, if Nasdaq goes to 9,000 points, are you really willing to hold your $400 NVDIA? Humans never believe in what they don't see. They only believe after they've been shown, and then it's too late. What I truly hope for everyone who has a kind heart is not only that you can preserve your money through the chaos and manipulation, but walk out of the machinations stronger, better, healthier, and with a bright future. For this, and only this, is what you have waited for.
TVC:VIXLong
by LordWrymouth
4
IWM Russel 2000 - No Love For Small CapsI hadn't really looked at IWM until a follower asked me about it on Twitter, and after thinking about it for a few hours and comparing it against SPY and QQQ, I realized that it's not that IWM is lagging, it's that it's not going to follow the recent mania. Some wisdom I heard recently is that breadth is important in markets because it indicates a large amount of liquidity has entered or left, indicating the emergence of new bull and bear markets. Unfortunately, with the exception of Friday alone, breadth has been terrible in this debt ceiling crisis pump, which means even though Nasdaq is flirting with 15,000 and SPX with 4,300, it's a bullish impulse within bearish macro conditions. There's a lot of trouble on the horizon with the 2024 Presidential Election close enough that the game has to played and the trouble brewing in mainland China with the Communist Party being about to fall and the globalist bloc struggling to either cuckold or depose Xi Jinping. What a bullish impulse in a bearish macro framework means for small caps is that although Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Tesla, Amazon, Apple might pump, liquidity is not going to be going "risk on" on small caps and zombie corporations. Instead, prices will be driven lower because as they sell the cycle highs in the blue chips, they'll be bidding a portion of their profits with lowball asks on small caps for the purposes of pumping them, and then dumping them, on retail's head after interest in the big names has become exhausted. Those very large lowball asks will lead the algorithms to drive price towards them because the algo is designed to generate volume. But on small caps, unless the company has significantly exceptional fundamentals, your expectations on how high it can go and how long it can go for during a reversal will have to be quite reserved. In other words, if you missed the July '20 to October '22 pump on IWM then you missed the train and it's never coming back. It is what it is. Just accept it. You can make a lot of money trading puts on this thing on the way down. It just means that if it really does bounce around $125, your expectation for where it can bounce to shouldn't be a new ATH, but probably back to $170. Again, you can make a lot of money trading calls from $125 to $170. But if you want to bUy tEh bOtToM fOr thE mOaSS and think you're going to get a 50 bagger instead of a "tiny little" 5 bagger, you're going to blow your account. And if that's who you are, it's probably better you blow your account and go back to working a real job and learn the value of money again. So here's the trade. This recent breakout looks like it's just a consolidation squeeze. It's going down. But it might screw around for a while and could be as annoying as trading over $200 again. It's really hard to say. Areas you'd really like to short and/or buy puts are called $188 or $190. You'll need 4-6 months or so to get to the $127 level. But either way, the R/R on a $188 short with a $212 stop and a $130 target is almost 7 to 1. Go do sports betting for a while and enlighten to how hard it is to hit a +700 if you don't think that's a worthwhile trade. You need to quit wanting to get rich quick. Getting rich isn't important and it isn't even valuable. What you need is to wake up to what's important in life and what you're really here to do. And that question is answered in mankind's traditions and that 5,000 year old culture sitting in Mainland China after the CCP is utterly annihilated.
AMEX:IWMShort
by LordWrymouth
4
AMC ready to fade. Too Much Big Short Money to OvercomeI like the theory of beating the Hedge Funds and their over capitalized naked shorts but the reality of the markets is that they exist to hurt us (the poor and middle class). I'm expecting a fake breakout sometime between now and Christmas, this will pull in a final round of suckers. then going into the new year, this will print a definitive new lower low on a ton of volume. The AMC Movie Theatre business fundamentals don't matter at all, this is a meme asset that is narrative and emotion driven only
NYSE:AMC
by noam_chom
24
GME moment of truth -- will the Algo break the trendline??GME algo is in full control, as you can see from the two upward blue channels that follow with a sharp drop. The good news is that the upward orange trendline has held on 3 separate occasions now -- Feb '21, May '22, and Sep '22. This signifies that while the algo remains mostly in control, the lows aren't as low as they could be because DRS diamond hands are holding the line. The moment of truth will come within the next couple weeks, as the algo goes for the "mega drop", similar to what we saw in January when we went from $40 to $20. If we're lucky, we will mimic the movement of April '20 before the sneeze, where the price temporarily dropped below the trendline and back into it, igniting the squeeze in just a few months. So I'd expect a quick drop below the channel to the $15-20 range and back into it shortly thereafter. If this happens, MOASS is most definitely imminent within the next 3 months. However, if it doesn't bounce back into the channel, MOASS would be delayed and a new trend would most likely take shape over the next 6 months or so before we can make any real judgement. At that point, we'd be totally dependent on DRS numbers sucking out liquidity before we saw anything really reminiscent of MOASS.
NYSE:GMELong
by bouncytrades
3
AMC Could hit $14? Naw its AMC DayWe Fell Back below resistance before close, but IDC Tomorrow Who Ever is Holding AMC will receive an APE on the 22nd!!! This Will be Monumental! Even if they don't close? 1. The Buying and Holding Pressure tomorrow will be Extreme!! 2. We will have holders from baby and game piling into AMC 3.For the First Time Ever we could finally expose Synthetic Shares in the Market!!! 4. I would think the 90 million short shares, would at the least have to be covered!!! $33 with Ease Win Win Win Win!!! We are Making History & showing the whole world things can change!!!! See you on the Moon. This is not financial advice Short Interest 95,091,742 shares Short Interest Ratio 1.43 Days to Cover Short Interest % Float 18.45% Off-Exchange Short Volume 17,363,626 shares Off-Exchange Short Volume Ratio 59.90%
NYSE:AMCLong
by FibonacciN
2
History always repeats!Back when I posted the 'accumulation on AMC' I though the fractal between January 2021 and June 2021 was just slanted. This would mean a clockwise rotation of the fractal. basically a skewed version of the fractal. Downward moves would be more extreme and sharp. Upwards move would look more like a consolidation. Consolidation would look like a slight down trend, following the angle at which the fractal is rotated. I was early when I thought August 3rd 2022 was may 26th 2021 on the fractal. It seems to me that today August 5th 2022 was May 13th 2021 on the fractal.
NYSE:AMCLong
by GuiltBeCrowned
8
AMC Squeeze ProjectionNot sure if a 'kite shape' has ever come up in technical analysis but for the sake of meta we can just say diamond. I think we will run sideways until the half point is tested where we will get a breakout to ~100. After that, since it would be at the top of a rising wedge, we would see a slow consolidation to test the extended bottom trend (orange) where we will see a push to another high point where the squeeze should occur (summer 2024). If we breakdown, then its just wrong and I can see 5 being a bottom. I've been holding since Jan 2021 and plan to sell -if it works out- at 100 where I will wait for the end of the consolidation period where I will re-enter and hold for another year for capital gains (woohoo waiting!!) Ultimate sell target: $1,000.00 I know this idea is based off the Short Swap theory present throughout meme stock talk. I believe AMC and GME are the most profitable and I believe the short swap theory is true. When the economy crashes, people will look for anything going up. And when the shorts exit, amc and gme will be that ticket to big gains - the initial cause for the squeeze. The top is impossible to chart.. 1k seems reasonable to me. Good luck
NYSE:AMCLong
by W40kProfit
5
194 by June 24th 2022I've liked this setup for the past couple weeks and have had an approximate initial target of ~170-180. Something happened last week that gave me enough information to calculate a point target for the end of next week. I believe these next 4 trading days will be the beginning of a monster run to 300+. My point target for June 24th is 194.12. If it can hold around that level without giving it all back, my target range by end of 2022 (likely by October 2022) is 333-357. This company has shown it can hang in the sky since its ascension back in 2021. That was all just a preview tho to true MOASS. If she gets to 300 chances are she ain't coming back and will achieve levels us apes cant even count to. Wow. Proud of u gamestop. We Believe in U. Best, Millie Bobby Brown P.S. take my word that the stochastic RSI setup on the weekly is as bullish as it gets.
NYSE:GMELong
by JerryManders
7