MOASS or loss porn? An opinion on AMC Entertainment.Dear babbling smooth brained baboons of the interweb, it's your ol’ boy Magnus here!
I have come to present a case for AMC. I do believe we are about to witness the end of the “battle for $40” in the war of “The smooth brained simians vs. The hedgies“.
Now dear fellow, I know you have never seen such artistic magnificence before! But do stop licking the screen and allow us to move along, ei?
Well, as you can see. According to my most sophisticated calculations we should either MOASS or have lots and lots of epic loss porn for our ape brethren over at r/wallstreetbets before the year is out!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is an opinion. Magnus is not a financial advisor.
Moass
Is history repeating itself? GameStop-the run up part two. It appears that GME is preparing for launch on the monthly time frame. Candles from pre January liquidity test are printing same pattern.
My preferred method of trading GME is quite simple. I buy big bags via IEX, I DRS as soon as shares settle, I rinse and repeat.
Big moves are comingFrom a cyclical perspective, and with Heikin Ashi candle sticks, we can see better the cycle of AMC. It forms sort a huge cup and handle on the weekly chart, a reverse h&s in the 1h chart, a neutral RSI in short et midterm charts and a volume divergence where bears have less and less momentum creating higher lows. I don't thing there is going to be a final sell test, but i could see that we stay neutral for a day or 2, and have a strong move up after market maker clean up the options chain. With Fib levels i see this kind of move, plus with Elliott wave we look like we're finishing the a-b-c-d-e bearish pattern (like dave pointed in his video) in the longer term perspective and ready for a reversal very soon. Last thing, there is lots of Gamma in the options chain close to Jan 2022, so it could be triggered around this date. NFA, just my opinion on the stock I love haha! Cheers!
Crucial SPY test ,MEME counter argument The Fed..
Scholars running the show are now, after denying the fact that the Evergrande mess was contained, are now admitting that the ramifications could spill into the U.S. Economy.
The Fed..
Also sent out a WARNING that the act of holding a meme stock threatens the stability of the U.S. Financial system.
I would like to point out that holding meme stocks isn't the actual problem. Though I am very biased on this, as I am, and have been accumulating AMC for about a year now, the issue is what has happened to make "MEME" stocks an issue along with why it's being called a "MEME" stock.
In my early 20's I worked as a crane rat, learning everything from mechanical to electrical engineering along with ladder logic programming, how to diagnose an issue with a piece of machinery crucial to any random company that needed one repaired on the fly.
If it was a mechanical problem, MOST times it was an easy fix. However when it was an electrical problem there was a lot of wire chasing looking for a short , an issue with software, a bad high or low voltage coil. If it was a fuse, what made the fuse , or circuit pop? Was it a short, or was there a mechanical problem like a bad bearing that led to an overdraw of current that popped or blew the circuit?
In the event that it was certainly a mechanical issue it was fixed by replacing a bearing or what not.
Let's look at the accusation of holding a "MEME" stock as a disruptor in our beautiful financial system.
Let's compare our Financial system as an electrical circuit , which it basically is. You work, you get paid, you spend, money goes back to the manufacturer and you get paid again. The more efficiently you spend your money, you develop a savings and invest in a stock that seems to be doing really well, in the hopes you can increase your nest egg.
When the circuit is broken the fuse blows and the system goes down, not just because of a mechanical issue but it could also be a software issue.
Let's look at the mechanics of the financial system as well.
(1) From Investopedia, "Individual and institutional investors come together on stock exchanges to buy and sell shares in a public venue. Share prices are set by supply and demand as buyers and sellers place orders. Order flow and bid-ask spreads are often maintained by specialists or market makers to ensure an orderly and fair market."
Seems legit right? Everyone is happy, everything works, and best of all its cyclical . I absolutely love this system! It is FLAWLESS! It works, the machine is in tip top order, clean and ready to rock.
It's only when one of the 3 main and/or 6 sub parts of this machine goes bad that we find issues in the circuitry, mechanical and software end of it, and it fails.
These 3 main and 6 sub parts are as listed in the quote above from Investopedia:
1.)The Electrical;
I.) Individual
II.) Institutional Investor
2.)The Mechanical;
III.) The buyer
IV.) The seller
3.)The Software;
V.) The Specialist
VI.) The Market-Maker
Let's test my in the field diagnosis of this machine:
1.) Looks like the Electrical is working just fine. Stocks have been bought and sold by both investors and institutional investors on a day to day, month to month and year to year basis. Heck I even know a guy who has held Microsoft for 35 years. He keeps reminding me how it "IPO'd at 21 bucks a share". Seems legit to me, This is how it's supposed to work.
(2) From the "Wall Street and the Stock Exchanges: Historical Resources web page:
" Stock exchanges have a long history in the United States. In 1790, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, originally named the Board of Brokers of Philadelphia, was founded. Two years later saw another big competitor—the New York Stock Exchange."
If "1" is working, let's check the mechanical end of this machine: The buyer and seller
III.) Looks like the BUYER end of this machine is working. I can certainly see it's been heavily used and may have had some problems along the way, which I can certainly hope have been repaired. {Robinhood} . Further diagnosis is needed. In this case I would write a note to myself and carry on with the diagnosis.
IV.) The seller. This looks pretty good, minor wear to it, but it is functioning as intended. Certainly not as bad as the "BUYER" end of it.
the Electrical end of this machine has had some problems, a note has been added but overall still seems to be functioning correctly.
This puts me at my third stage of diagnosis. If the electrical and the mechanical aspect of this machine are working, and I haven't overlooked anything, the problem must be in the software.
Let's analyze first the directions of in which the market is supposed to work:
From the instruction manual :
(1) "Individual and institutional investors come together on stock exchanges to buy and sell shares in a public venue. Share prices are set by supply and demand as buyers and sellers place orders. Order flow and bid-ask spreads are often maintained by specialists or market makers to ensure an orderly and fair market." ~ Investopedia
Well, would you look at that!?!? Seems We found the glitch in the machine.
"Order flow and bid-ask spreads are often maintained by specialists or market makers to ensure an orderly and fair market." AND
"Order flow and bid-ask spreads are often maintained by specialists or market makers to ensure an orderly and fair market."
Seems we found the issue, it also seems why we may have found why the "Buyer" showed some defectiveness as well.
This is why no one singular person or anybody should feel singled out for ruining a perfectly working machine. It is when "Special instructions" are issued to a machine without the engineers approval that the warranty is void.
The repair is very very simple. As a field tech, I would simply allow the machine to fail, remove the software and build upon the roots that established it as a working machine.
Let's start with a buy is a buy. what does this mean? This means no dark pools. Not for you, me or God. A lit exchange is necessary to have an open and fair market. A buy is a buy and a sell is a sell . There isn't a loop hole in that. what it does bring to light is a buyer beware and ensure stop losses are set.
T1 settlement. My electric company has the ability to shut my power off remotely, we have high tech machines that do transactions at light speed, but it takes 3 days to transfer money from one place to another? come on, this i T# and T2 settlement shit is rubbish.
Abolish PFOF. This actually should be placed at the top of the list. With todays applications on the Cellular networks, there is absolutely no reason PFOF should exist! Want free trades? Deal with this advertisement first. Or subscribe to our non advertisement plan for blah blah blah a month.
a system much like Bitcoin or Ethereum, where every transaction can be placed recorded and viewed publicly. Which is tied hand in hand with the anti-dark pool update.
Here is your machine from the 1790's working as intended, more efficient and more transparent. When something goes wrong you know exactly where the error occurred.
I am thinking of doing a Yellen , Pelosi essay next. It will be titled Cybernetic Untrustworthy Network Tyrants as soon as I finish some well deserved solitude from the markets and my working life.
Credits :
(1) Investopedia.com "How does the Stock Market work"
(2) Https:guides.loc.gov "Wall Street and the Stock Exchanges: Historical Resources
(1)
AMC " 1 banana 2 " The handle of this pattern is just about complete. if we break 44.34 which will end the cup and handle pattern, the measured move, is right around 54.33. Under normal circumstances and I stress the word "NORMAL", the measured move generally exceeds the dip of the cup. Under FOMO its anyone's guess where it goes. Either way apes, the bananas are on sale! Get some while they're cheap.
Good luck to all , and Happy Friday to everyone!
$AMC bringing tendies just in time for thanksgiving!Here is my rough estimate for AMC prices this month based on the previous cycle. last couple weeks line up to a T and I expect the prices to continue following this pattern. Im guessing AMC hits between 140 and 280 on the 23rd as the peak for this cycle.
Possible $AMC Squeeze This MonthSimple trend analysis of $AMC.
I'm seeing many similarities in Jan-Jun as I am in Jun-Oct.
If we continue to follow the pattern from the previous squeeze just as we have been for the last 5 months, we could see the following:
Nov 4th - 50
Nov 16th - 60
Nov 17th - 73
Nov 18th - 100
Nov 23rd - 246
Will this be enough to trigger The MOASS?
Only time will tell.
AMC Future Move?Look at the similarities, where it retraces and bounces. Also the George Dubyah (aka Double Bottom). Looks like crap but it tends to be following same pattern but longer since HF dont want this to move like it did. Think of it as trying to make the fight longer, but at some point it ends. I feel like the breaking point where they start to cover will be around $90-100 mark because GME battled around this area before it made its move higher up. Think its a psychological point where they will give up and start covering. After that, who knows where we will go.... Actually its the $118-132 mark without the shorts covering. With shorts covering, is a different question that remains unanswered. Therefore, P I C K Y O U R F L O O R , N A M E Y O U R P R I C E
Possible $AMC Squeeze In NovemberSimple trend analysis of $AMC.
I'm seeing many similarities in Jan-Jun as I am in Jun-Oct. If cycle theory is true, we could see a repeat of the last two squeezes playing out on the $AMC chart in November.
Will this be enough to trigger The MOASS?
Only time will tell.
GME Everything Is pointing towards ANOTHER RUN ! Bullish !Not Financial Advice
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Technical Analysis :
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First looking solely at the TA , considering the ticker cyclical behavior everything shows that it should shoot up anytime.
Ascending Triangle inside the "Golden Triangle"
MACD/RSI are showing the same clear signals as before precedent runs.
Not shown on the graph, but IV is also at the same value as before JAN 2021 Run.
Now I believe more volume is required to beat the downward pressure from Bears Hedge Funds.
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Run down of possible Catalysts :
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Earnings
Now we're in this dynamic right before earnings , with the cyclical behavior in mind, it only adds to the bullish case.
Video game industry sales are extremely seasonal. and Nov , Dec are by a large margin the best months for the whole industry.
Adding to that that Gamestop sells much more PC hardware, clothes, phones... And is the process of shifting to an e-commerce model. It is plausible in my opinion that they will crush this quarter.
One of the sources : www.statista.com
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SEC Report :
During June earnings meating Gamestop board anounced they were in talkings with SEC.
SEC issued a report that's overall pretty bullish from SEC, basically stating that Shorts are trapped in this case.
Source : www.sec.gov
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My personnal belief as I said is that volume is required to back the bullish case.
With FTDs rolling for Shorts we could also see a fabricated upward momentum.
We can also believe it will go to 200 then back before 170 before another run early November. In case volume is as dry as it has been lately.
Honestly no precise price target in case it shoots up, just up.
AMC's 3rd Squeeze PredictionAMC has been prepping for it's next squeeze for almost 5 months now. Short Interests is at all time highs meaning shorts have not covered and the technicals show bullish momentum starting to build up once again.
Some indicators that suggest the next squeeze is starting.. low volatility, low volume (increasing now), high short interest, pennant close to breaking out, and previous trend analysis.
My price target is taken from AMC's Speed Trendline & Fib Retracement levels which suggest the next squeeze will peak end of November at around the $150 area
Low/High Weekly Price Targets:
October 22 - $38/$48
October 29 - $42/$62
November 5 - $52/$80
November 12 - $73/$88
November 19 - $87/$104
November 26 - $96/$150
BIG NEWS ApeArmy!! It's YUUUUUUGE!
As usual, this is not financial advice. Do you own due diligence. This is just what I see forming.
An ABC correction is forming that, if it proceeds to develop as I see, will constitute the first leg of a Motive Wave.
This correction will need to break through the descending resistance (blue) and add 100% of the A-leg. This will form the 1-leg peak (~$252). If it does that and rejects the (now) descending support as a 50% retracement (~$199) retest, that retracement coincides with the 618-level which sets GME up for a textbook Elliott Motive Wave.
This is SUPERCALIFRAGILISTICLY bullish.
As this is developing on the DAILY, do not expect this to happen overnight. However, that retest 618 retracement still needs to exceed the 1-leg peak to provide confirmation.
The cautious take: wait until the price closes above the 1-leg peak before entering.
The conservative take: wait for TWO closes above.
The aggressive take: enter after the bounce BUT above the A-leg peak ($231.44). Importantly, you should expect a quick pullback before advancing again (see ME.)
ME: Already committed, I'm looking for a 123-wave stopping short of the 1-leg peak. I'm looking for ANOTHER 618-level retracement owing to the fractal nature of Elliott Waves. That would set up a sub-wave to map out the entire 3-leg.
I'm very, VERY excited about this development. **IF** everything progresses according to theory, we could be looking at a $370+ for the 3-leg peak and a $480-ish for the 5-leg. (My money's on $460-ish.)
The Euphoric take: Is this it? The MOAM (Mother of all Motives)? The MOASS? I dunno, but given what's happened in the past during run-ups ... Hoooooooooo-boy, I'm not gonna risk missing this rollercoaster.
SideNote: If this is the squeeze, we will likely see an extension of the 3 & 5 legs. What does this mean? It's the 3-phase runup. What does it look like? See what you can expect with my $SHIBUSD chart.
Trade smart. Trade Safe. PROFIT!