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Another speculative bubble: Alcatel-Lucent [Banking] [Crypto]First... a little introduction about mainstream speculation, then I will talk about 50 year market cycles, and then about banking & currencies. Coronavirus: The "best" models by "the brightest minds" predicted - taking into account lockdown & social distancing - "tens of millions of deaths". MrRenev predicted - it's only a few months old - that this was extremely exagerated. By Late April, 200,000 people have died. The rate is high in cold countries (~40°N, interestingly this is New York and Rome latitudes), I think deaths of colds by this coronavirus are as high as all other colds combined. Anyway, I got alot of heat but I was right, as usual. I also predicted that lockdown was useless and did no good (but does a whole lot of harm), and I will soon compare lockdown countries to non lockdown ones to show it, plus studies will say the same thing, same old, same old. A study has shown New York had several millions infected! More than 1 in 5! (As I predicted...got patronized and everything but I was right - AGAIN! - so don't mind me if I am arrogant and condescending). Cough cough: 11,544 deaths in New York City 15,740 in the New York state A death rate around .5%, it's a little higher than other places, but it's pretty cold there, and air quality isn't great, and americans are fat so obviously it will be worse. Also there is another reason why the rate could be higher there but I won't even mention it because the USA sees racism everywhere and they still control the world (not for long ;}) and I can't be bothered. I had the numbers for all colds but idk where they are now, but for the flu & pneumonia last years they were almostas many deaths as for covid-19 alone. And if I remember correctly covid-19 had about as many deaths as all colds combined. So it's pretty big but way smaller than all the clowns predicted. "Low end mortality prediction 3%, but could be as high as 10%" "Worse than the spanish flu" "Deadlier than feared" LMAO clowns! CO2 : Sigh. CO2 will kill us all. Another pathetic dogma and ridiculous calls. "World hunger will be extreme", actually earth population went up exponentially and hunger went down even in nominal terms. 30-50 years ago: "Temperature will go up 5 to 15 degrees" (15? really? Chimp). Went up 1 degree. In the North Hemisphere. And 0 in oceans & around the equator. 0.5 overall. They're desperate to make "adjustment" to make it look worse lmao, but then there are inconsistency and they deviate from other measurements and other countries etc and keep coming up with excuses to cover up their previous lies. "12 years left" We've had 12 years left for the past 30 years boy. Terrible, really terrible calls. I could make a long list. There are really funny ones, well they're all funny, another example is the "end of the world millenium bug", heard of that one? Oh, every one knows this one :"The Titanic is unskinkable" OOOH MY this one DID NOT AGE WELL! "Prosperity Will Never End" (1929). "We have to transitions to renewables because our advanced economics predict Oil will cost $380 a barrel in 10 years and it's fundamentally impossible we are wrong" (economists in 2005 - barrel priced at minus 40 a few days ago and Trump fighting to keep the long term price above 20 bucks). Cycles: So I remind you, 1780-1830: Steam Engine, Mechanisation 1830-1880: Railway, Steel, Comm (telegraphs), ( Start of wageslavery ) 1880-1930: Electricity, Chemicals, Heavy Engineering 1930-1975: Automobiles, Oil, Mass Production & Consumerism 1975-2020: IT, Comm (satelittes, computers, internet, phones) 2020-2060: Banking (& Currencies), Health (billions of obese...), ( Decline of Wageslavery/Change in Work structure ) Comm continued between 1880 and 1975 and was growing before 1830, but it made its biggest revolutionnary gains in the 2 periods mentionned I think. Idk maybe traders are communists after all, alot want freedom and hate the exploitation of man by man, the difference with official commies is we are smart enough to understand freedom comes from making money by yourself (profit) not by electing dictators that control everything and put chains around your neck (so obvious...). Banking & Currencies : A banking revolution is necessary, by revolution I mean changing this rotten system completely. All this money printing... In the US retail banks are making ridiculous loans to uneducated people that won't ever be able to pay, squeezing them, and then taking away their houses and more... Cryptocurrencies were the earliest element in this new banking Kondratiev cycle, like computers of the 60s (first popular computer game spacewar that you might have heard of run on a 1960 model), and the space race. If you stored very pricey Disk Storage Drives and CRAM from 1962 you might be able to sell a few to collectors but that's it. Wouldn't get your money back and I didn't say inflation adjusted. Companies are developping in this area, I mean quick payments, they're starting to replace banks. There are issues but it's growing. I better perform well in this cycle and know what to invest in, I can proudly say I am an engineer in security & electronic payments, isn't that funny, in another life I might have been part of the next bubble, at least I learned something useful at school. Forgot it all thought. So anyway ye, all those mobile phone companies, and optic cable companies (Alcatel was both), went way way down. Mobile phones got really big, optic fiber too, doesn't mean their share price HAVE to go up, if they started already 500% too high duh, and there are other factors. People are so dumb. That's why it is called dumb money. Finance is getting more and more complex, probably because of the Flynn effect, mmm because the smart are getting smarter and the dumb are getting dumber. And people are getting fatter and fatter + the world is open so diseases can spread on easy mode. Plague inc casual difficulty. Next big things banking/currencies/and even the rest of finance, and Health / bio-tech. The cattle that gets excited and greedy about potential profit and becomes obsessed and blinded with reasons to go up (the halving, bakkt, cme futures, etc) will get slaughtered and turned into delicious steaks, smart money will keep profitting I wonder... finance becoming more advanced efficient complex... Gives an even bigger edge to the smart. And dum dums get punished harder (as Robinhood users positions demonstrate). The dum dums breed like rats, the smart (especially women) not much... So this means more brainlets money to end in the pocket of less smart players. And all the little cockroaches that were cheating before everything got computerised (floor traders) stopped making money so now only pure skill / smarts is rewarded. The smart can make more money but then have to pay for dum dums that can't even survive on their own. And get dumber and so on. Without brains humans are just animals that don't run fast and aren't very strong. Nothing is more risible that delusional dumb money that gets blinded by 1 fact and ignore everything else and gets excited. The Alcatel chart, like many others, is not available anymore. There is still a remnant on the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Those bubbles, those dumb money movements happen ALL THE TIME. And they never learn, and it gets forgotten, and it's always the same story. And they are cocky when the price goes up, and they are persuaded they can't be wrong, and they get wiped out and turn silent. History will keep repeating itself for a long long time. Don't be one of those idiot gamblers. Investing and speculating take a very large amount of learning and a very large amount of thinking. This is what happens to gamblers 99.999% of the time:
EURONEXT:ENEducation
by MrRenev
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