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Update to Dow Jones Industrials Time At Mode Back in 2015 I had published a chart with annual data for the Dow Jones Industrials. I will provide a link at the bottom. The research for this patterning is something I did myself by hand using pencil and paper back in the 1980's. These patterns show up in all time frames. There is plenty of room to enhance the research on this technique and a group of us gather in the chat rooms here at TradingView to discuss new trades that set up and point out when trades expire. Notice how these two grey boxes (which are both 50% drops in price) that expand wider in time from the 1960's to the 1980's and the 2000-2010's had a multi-year trend, followed by a monster crash (1987 was 40% and 2000 was 37%) and then just two+ years later there was a secondary bear market of 20% in 1990 and 22% in 2022. Keep in mind this is just for the DJ:DJI and not the Nasdaq Composite or S&P500 which were greater corrections. The 11-year time frame of the 1999-2011 pattern allows for an 11-year rally from 2012 (which was year 1 of the 11-year rally) shows that time expired. As you can see from the 1943-1962 trend, a smaller 5-year mode formed at the end of the 20 year trend and then the market peaked in 1972-1973 when time expired for the second, smaller mode. I had to reconstruct this chart after the data for the previous chart changed symbol. See the link below to see the original. I look forward to your additional research onto this pattern and its implications to the idea that we are in a similar period to 1993-1994 with rally years of 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000 ahead of us. All the best, Tim October 19, 2024 3:31PM EST
Editors' picks
TVC:DJI
by timwest
14
TIME AT MODE IN CRUDE OIL DAILY MARCH 18 2021 818AM ESTHere's a quick TREND ANALYSIS using a simple method I like to call "TIME AT MODE" in the current crude oil market. I'm using the April 2021 futures contract to do the daily analysis. FIRST, notice that the crude oil market has not made a new high in over 5-days. That observation makes me look for downside trades in crude oil by first finding the "mode" since the high and then working from there. Here are the steps to analyze the setup. ///////////// Here's a CLOSER look at $CLJ2021 April Crude Oil ONCE there are 5-days without a new high, put a trend arrow at the peak, then work forward from there... From that first 5-days, there is a mode that I have labeled "4d" for 4-days at this price, which is the highest 4-day mode since the peak/start of the downtrend There is a RgExp decline that I have labeled with the yellow triangle, marking the start of the 4-day downtrend (which ends today) Since that first "trend day", the "RgExp down day" with the Yellow Triangle... there has been minimal follow-through and that has allowed the MODE to drop to the "7d" mode you see labeled there just under $65 at $64.96 (the high of the "lowest range" day last week on Wednesday). There is a chance that stocks are leading $USOIL down here, so it could just be taking its time or perhaps crude oil longs don't care about the drop in stocks now that the stimulus bill has passed. The 7-day mode hasn't confirmed yet by RangeExpanding down to kick off a new 7-day decline from the $64.96 level.... The RgExp level is where the market is down MORE TODAY than YESTERDAY'S RANGE... Tim West, March 18, 2021 8:18AM EST //////////// I will follow up this chart with another chart discussing the 7-day downside implications for Crude Oil. Simply stated, measure the "range around the mode" and project that price down from the highest point of the mode. That is your first target. The next possible target is 2x the range around the mode, projected down. Add that to your chart. Tim West, March 18, 2021 8:25AM EST
NYMEX:CLJ2021Short
by timwest
10
Top in $TSLA Was Outlined Weeks in Advance at Key Hidden Levels The “TIME AT MODE” method of analyzing price consolidations and subsequent trends nailed the top in $TSLA in the latest peak. Very simply stated: We outlined the top based on the # of weeks at the last consolidation. Once a market “breaks away” from that consolidation by “range expanding” as shown with the yellow triangle, you can begin counting down time based on the # of bars (in this case, weekly bars) that touch the most frequent price (mode). Once time has expired, as shown, the price can correct back towards the start of the trend. Wishing you all good fortune in the markets. I also outlined fundamental reasons for the decline in $TSLA, which I will outline in a subsequent comment to this chart. Best regards, Tim West
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by timwest
13
$AMZN - Amazon is "OUT OF RALLY TIME" using Time@Mode Amazon has rallied for 15 weeks into last week's close after accumulating at the mode back this past fall for 15 weeks. In other words: Amazon has "run out of time". Once Amazon blasted off on its previous earnings report back in October, it kicked off a 15 week rally which ran far beyond the rally that was implied by the previous move from $766 (where it lingered for 17 weeks in 2016 and had a 22 week rally out of that accumulation). A move from $766 to $980 was 29% and the implied rally from $980 was also 29%, but it ran up over 50% (see chart). Now that $AMZN has reached $1498, the PSR reached 4 times (an extreme reading) while the free cash flow yield has fallen to 1%, which means that the $7 billion in free cash flow is only 1% of the $700 billion in market cap for Amazon. Growth over the coming decade will help drive up that yield, but right now that is the return you would earn if you took Amazon private. Using the Time@Mode methodology, together with Key Earnings Levels stemming from quarterly earnings reports and raw and relative valuation analysis, we can see here that Amazon has "RUN OUT OF TIME" on a weekly basis for this rally and would only expect it to move sideways to down over the upcoming 15 week time frame as a new level of consolidation builds as the fundamentals "catch up". For now: It is opportunistic to sell short $AMZN with 5%-10% downside targets. Cover and re-short on 75% rebounds as many times as possible for the next 14 weeks. Tim 12:41PM EST February 7, 2018 $1439 last $AMZN
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by timwest
19
Gold's 17 Year Bull Market is only in Year 13The YEARLY TREND of $XAUUSD or Gold is still in an uptrend from a massive, 17 year mode at the $395-$398 zone. The 26-year sideways period from 1979-2004 had 17 years at a $3 price level between $395.3 and $398.3, which is a remarkably long time for a market to stay at one price. Once a market gets moving out of a range like that it tends to go for 17 years in total. That first year was 2005, so that makes 2017 the 13th year of the 17-year uptrend. The other interesting part is that the price range of the consolidation as measured from low to high was $633 or 292%. When adding $292% to the mode of $395.3, you get a target of $1530, which has been surpassed already, but oddly the $1527 level was the "HIGHEST YEARLY LOW" which happened in the year 2012. I would also add that Gold has formed a new 6-year mode from $1226 to $1178, so anytime Gold is above $1226 it can extend gains and move back towards the highs above $1527. The best way to trade long term uptrends is to buy when shorter term trends turn down and then exhaust themselves. Which means, essentially, that you jump back into the long term uptrend when short term selling occurs to push the price down temporarily which provides a low risk entry point. Stay tuned - and next look at the "MONTHLY TREND" and then the "WEEKLY TREND" and the "DAILY TREND". We often cover these in the Key Hidden Levels chat room since Gold is such an important market to everyone in the world. PS - I'm putting a "Long" on this chart because the Gold UPTREND is still in tact and in control. Tim April 29, 2017 2:41PM EST
FX:XAUUSDLong
by timwest
14
Time At Mode Methodology in $SPY Daily & WeeklyFrom the low in November in the 5% "lock-limit-down" move after the US Presidential Election, we begin a new UPTREND. I updated the trading chat room "Key Hidden Levels" with this analysis as the rally unfolded out of the December-January trading range that is shown where there are 20-days at one price. There were also 7-weeks at one price, which implies that the market would advance for both 20-days and for 7-weeks once it "disconnected" from that price. Disconnected means to "range expand away from" the mode and to trade with an entire range above the mode. You can see both did that where I have yellow and red arrows marking Day-1 and Week-1. The rally time has exhausted, and typically that means you have an amount of time equal to the rally to congest and test the mode. If the mode holds, then assume a larger uptrend. You can trade short for the next few days or the next few weeks, but keep in mind that I didn't analyze the monthly trend on this chart. Either way, I just wanted to show you how mechanically and mathematically we analyze trends in the "Key Hidden Levels Chat Room." Sidenote: We do use emotions too, but that's for another chart on another day. Cheers, Tim
AMEX:SPY
by timwest
8
Australian Dollar AUDUSD set up for a 10% rallyUsing a mechanical-only approach to analyzing the market can provide disciplined, unbiased and unemotional projections. The AUDUSD has been building a base down here for the last 9 months where every single month has traded between 0.75 and 0.764. The trend-indicator "RgMov" hit a new 44-bar high in early 2016 which pointed to opportunities to buy 11-week oversold (using CCI(11)) and two signals have occurred so far. We are close to a 3rd signal. The last 6 months have been a period of diminishing volatility as the monthly ranges have tightened. Notice the reduced ATR% line at the bottom. You can also see it in the size of the trading ranges on the monthly boxes. The potential fundamental lift here is for the expectation of a rebound in commodities as investors look for a Gov't led infrastructure spend here in the US. The "ENTRY LONG" for AUDUSD will take several steps, but I like my odds here even though the market hasn't started moving away from the "white box" "mode" on the chart. If we hold above the yellow line at .7476 the market is in very strong hands and if above .7640 there is a strong chance for acceleration up. If we see acceleration up, then you want to force yourself to jump on board and to be prepared to buy dips, as labeled in the green rally forecast to the "target zone" shown. Stop loss 0.7400 Target 0.84-0.87 Time frame: 3-7 months Tim 11/11/2016 .75519 last
Long
by timwest
7
Gold elliott wave and time@mode analysis (2016-06-25)Gold was bottomed at December 3rd last year and was confirmed at December 17th with a double bottom. I made an elliott wave analysis previously and pointed that the five waves down were finished and would start a three waves correction. From elliott wave analysis the wave A correction has raised from 1046.23 to 1263.37 with 70 days. Then it underwent an expanding triangle correction for 109 days which is wave B. It broke out of the correction region at Friday. If this breakthrough is confirmed in the following week, gold will head for higher. I made a time@mode analysis based on @Tim West and @Ivan Labrie's method. Price target: TP1: 1391 TP2: 1463 Time target: T1: August 31th T2: November 04th Good luck for everyone! Notes: Pay attention to whether the breakthrough will be confirmed in the following week. If it does, gold is in wave C.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by zhipengcfel
Elliott wave analysis on GoldGold is in consolidation for couple of weeks. Price has reached to the bottom of the rising channel. Current price area gets supported from the previous support zone. From EW analysis, a clear ABC correction waves have been done. If price does not break the rising channel, it will go up again to 1243 first then 1276. Break of the resistance trendline will confirm the rising. Just buy the break out with SL outside of the rising channel. Notes: If it breaks out of the rising channel, it will go down to 1183~1193 zone. Good luck for everyone!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by zhipengcfel
8
Bitcoin - BTCUSD - Bitstamp -Time@Mode Rally CompleteBitcoin rallied to the time@mode targets based on the methodology I have presented here at TradingView. You can do the analysis yourself by following the guidelines. The analysis on the left hand side of the chart is untouched from the last chart I published (see link below for original chart). The current rally completed an 11-day rally out of the 11-day mode that was created at the 243 level. The range around the mode was 258 to 234, which when you add the 24 point range to the 243 level provided an upside target of 267 which the market reached in 4 days. The action since then is also bullish and the mode is rising and there are many bullish signs within the price action that are long term bullish. The buyers are aggressive and they are clearing out the sellers. I look forward to pointing out the next trade as it sets up. Tim 11:53PM July 9, 2015
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by timwest
8
USDCAD - Daily Time@Mode Analysis - Top ReachedThanks to @IvanLabrie who is constantly following and trading FOREX who pointed out this chart to me this morning, but it was so clear I felt it was worth showing all of you. The pattern here is as clear as you want to find in a trade setup. @IvanLabrie caught it nicely in his analysis and here it is plain and simple. #1 - Start the trend at the lowest price on the chart. #2 - Find the most common price since the low (disregard all price action to the left, initially) #3 - Find the range around the most frequent price (aka - mode). #4 - Project up the range starting from the mode to get a target price. - Enter long when you see range expansion from the mode and a low > mode. #5 - Exit at the target. You can exit and go short too at the target, but that is another style of trading that you may only want to do once you have piled up some profits first. The best way to sell at the extreme is to wait for the range of trading to contract, as it did in this example yesterday. And you you can sell with 1 average range as your stop loss and target the mid-point of the range initially. You can add to your position as the market falls under the highest low, as it has done today. You want to see "range expansion" to the downside to confirm your trade as soon as possible too, which is happening right now as I type. Range expansion is when the decline today is greater than the range of trading yesterday. The KEY to this too is the Trend Indicator at the bottom which shows the path of least resistance of the market by looking for this indicator to be on a 2-month high to look for longs and a 2-month low to look for shorts. The key is that selling short up here is a contra-trade to the trend, so you don't get greedy when trading against the trend, rather, you look for fast profits and if they don't emerge, you walk away. Feel free to send charts to me or to publish charts that set-up with this methodology so we can all find great trades together. Time@Mode Tim 8:52AM July 9, 2015
Short
by timwest
11
EURUSD - EuroCurrency - Daily - Uptrend in Tact + ForecastI have drawn out a guess for how the EURUSD will advance back to the 1.13-1.14 area. I draw reactions from clusters of time and where there is low time and draw a progression of about 16 days similar to the number of days at the mode across March through April. The secondary reason for this chart is today's "Range Expansion Down Day" that started from a "HIGHER LEVEL" than the last one (marked in a Purple Triangle). If you get aggressive selling at higher levels, then the market isn't controlled by the sellers, rather the buyers are in control and the sellers are "hoping". For those of you new to trading, always keep a close eye on what news is due and watch how the market reacts to it. You can tell how strong a market is by how it reacts to news. Bull markets have small down days on bad news (or even a small up day) and rally strongly on good news days. Bear markets reveal downward price action on good news (or even a small up day) and move down strongly on bad news days.
Long
by timwest
31
BITCOIN -BTCUSD - Builds another 11-day rally patternFrom my last post in BTCUSD where I highlighted an 11-day rally pattern, the time expired and during that rally a NEW 11-day rally pattern emerged. At the end of today, May 11, 2015, yet another 11-day pattern will form but will only trigger once another daily range is entirely above current levels. Don't count that until it confirms, but just making you aware of it ahead of time. The red-arrows are from my last chart, and I just left them exactly where they were. You can see how volume is at the 234.44 level and marks the "continental divide" where the market is BULLISH if above this level or BEARISH if below. Stay tuned - ask questions: Tim Monday, May 11, 2015 10:58AM EST
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by timwest
58