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🔥 Bitcoin: The Most Accurate Cycle Top Forecast To Date! 🚨Preface This analysis is based on historical price action. Since BTC only had a couple of cycles before, the data presented is based on just a few observations. Furthermore, this analysis will use calculations based on a mathematical model based on these few observations. TLDR/Summary at the bottom. Goal of this analysis In this analysis I'm going to take an attempt at making an educated guesss at when Bitcoin will top, and around which value it will top. With the information at hand, I'm reasonably certain that this is one of the best forecasts currently on the market. Indicators and Assumptions The first indicator on the chart is the Bitcoin Logarithmic Bands indicator, a personally made indicator which tries to calculate a Bitcoin top during a certain time frame by calculating a bottom and top band within BTC will top. More information below: The second indicator (or better said, assumption) that we use is the fact that Bitcoin has previously always topped between 34 - 47 weeks AFTER closing a weekly candle above the previous all-time high. I came to this conclusion after making this analysis below: Making the calculation 34 weeks after the 4th of March = 28th of October. 47 weeks after the 4th of March = 27th January. If the above will remain true for this cycle, we can expect Bitcoin to top between October 28th 2024 and 27th of January 2025. Now that we know the dates, we can also easily calculate the values. Naturally, we assume that the Bitcoin Logarithmic bands indicator will hold. (rounded for readability) 28-10-2024 lower band: 135.000$ 28-10-2024 top band: 195.000$ 27-01-2025 lower band: 144.000$ 27-01-2025 top band: 208.000$ Summary Based on the "New ATH to Top" model and the "Bitcoin Logarithmic Bands" model, we calculated that Bitcoin will top between 28-10-2024 and 27-01-2025, with a value between 135.000$ and 208.000$. Enjoy this analysis? Leave a like and a comment 🙏
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
21
Elliott Wave C/3 Entry Model ExampleIf you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Also, check out the links in my signature to get to know me better! Elliottwave and Elliotwave 3/C Entry Model. This is the minimum you should consider doing when laying out,"on paper", your favorite/profitable trade setups. Especially if it is new to you. More can be added as you see fit. I left most of my other confluences off TBH.
Education
by CryptoKnee
🟨 STEM Update - CAUTIONUpdate on the current environment - Orange The market has never gotten into an easy dollar environment according to the STEM model! Do not judge the market hostility based on what indexes are doing - this is simply WRONG, if you follow the Breakout methodology taught by Mark Minervini, William O'Neil, CANSLIM investors, Gil Morales and the likes. Currently, the market is 🟨 Orange this means selective or highly rotational, signalling a need for caution. Performance Indicator 💼 Instead look at you own performance of last 5 trades and level of stress are good indicators of the current trading environment. In an "easy dollar" market, stocks move up easily and profits come without much stress. However, over the past year, protecting profits has become increasingly important. Here are some additional notes I have written earlier that would help you understand the methodology better: 22MAR23: For traders, it is crucial to manage risk diligently in this environment, as it can become a trap of 'death by a thousand cuts. 26JAN23: The times when the general market is directionless (like now) and the individual names are breaking out - is the first sign that we will likely tranition to an easy dollar environment - this is why we want to gauge how is the watchlist doing. 28DEC22: Yesterday, we had some coal names that tried to move and I was close to alerting them but as I was expecting they reversed and closed near lows. While in a good market this is not a problem, we are not seeing any evidence that we have moved away from the 'hard penny' environment. If you want to learn more about the methodology - make sure you read the description here:
SP:SPXShort
by TintinTrading
GRS (Groestlcoin) | Fundamentals, price model, etc Launched on 22 March 2014 with a focus on technological advancement, Groestlcoin (GRS) is SEGWIT, TAPROOT and Lightning Network ready. Groestlcoin has been in constant active development, providing development updates and enhancements every 3 months for 8 years. It is the first coin that activated SEGWIT (January 2017) and TAPROOT (The last update was released on March 8, 2022) Groestlcoin's final supply is limited to 115 million coins from which around 80 million coins currently in circulation and only 15 million coins left. If you're familiar with the concept of scarcity, you know why it's important. Once something becomes scarce enough, it becomes precious and can be used as money. The market cap of Groestlcoin is around $57 million, while the capitalization of the entire crypto market exceeds $2 trillion. Therefore, it can grow significantly by attracting a small portion of this capital. Technical Analysis Take a look at the chart. Right after Bitcoin's third halving (July 2016), we have a falling wedge pattern on the chart. This consolidation pattern was actually an accumulation zone. As you can see, the 2017 Bull Run started right after the pattern completed. Each complete bitcoin cycle (Duration between two halving events) takes about 4 years. Now, about 4 years after the last bitcoin halving, we are again seeing a consolidation pattern formed on the chart. Now the triangle pattern is completed and the price is about to break out. So, this could be the beginning of a bull run. << However, always remember that past results are no guarantee of future performance >> Price Model Well, maybe a bull run is coming, but where can the targets be? I use a price model to determine the range of price movements. Bitcoin is the leader and in the crypto world everything follows it. I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the GRS price data and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio. I have plotted the model price (black) over time on the chart. To estimate the range of price movements, I used a set of trendlines plotted one or two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from the model. For more information on price models, see my article titled Ripple (XRP) Model Price via the link below the post. Terms What is segwit? Segwit stands for "segregated witness" and is a technique that reduces transaction fees. What is the taproot? Taproot is a modified advanced form of MAST that allows participants to aggregate their signatures and spend from a multi-sig just like a normal transaction together. What is lightning network? The Lightning Network is a second layer added to the blockchain that enables off-chain transactions, i.e. transactions between parties not part of the blockchain network. What is Bitcoin Stock-to-flow? The 'Stock-to-flow' is a number that shows how many years, at the current production rate, are required to achieve the current stock.
GLong
by BobRivera990
Ripple (XRP) Model PriceAn article titled Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model was published in March 2019 by "PlanB" with mathematical model used to calculate Bitcoin model price during the time. We know that Ripple has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. But does this correlation have a definite rule? In this study, we examine the relationship between bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and the ripple(XRP) price. The Halving and the stock-to-flow ratio Stock-to-flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there. SF = stock / flow The term "halving" as it relates to Bitcoin has to do with how many Bitcoin tokens are found in a newly created block. Back in 2009, when Bitcoin launched, each block contained 50 BTC, but this amount was set to be reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years). Today, there have been three halving events, and a block now only contains 6.25 BTC. When the next halving occurs, a block will only contain 3.125 BTC. Halving events will continue until the reward for minors reaches 0 BTC. With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio increased and Bitcoin experienced a huge bull market that absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But what exactly does this affect the price of Ripple? Price Model I have used Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and Ripple's price data from April 1, 2014 to November 3, 2021 (Daily Close-Price) as the statistical population. Then I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the natural logarithm of the Ripple price and the natural logarithm of the Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). You can see the results in the image below: Basic Equation : ln(Model Price) = 3.2977 * ln(BSF) - 12.13 The high R-Squared value (R2 = 0.83) indicates a large positive linear association. Then I "winsorized" the statistical data to limit extreme values to reduce the effect of possibly spurious outliers (This process affected less than 4.5% of the total price data). ln(Model Price) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 If we raise the both sides of the equation to the power of e, we will have: ============================================ Final Equation: ■ Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * BSF ^ 3.3297 Where BSF is Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ============================================ If we put current Bitcoin's stock-to-flow value (54.2) into this equation we get value of 2.95USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model. There is a power law relationship between the market price and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). Power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems. I plotted XRP model price (black) over time on the chart. Estimating the range of price movements I also used several bands to estimate the range of price movements and used the residual standard deviation to determine the equation for those bands. Residual STDEV = 0.82188 ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 + Residual STDEV => ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) – 11.392 => ■ First-Upper-Band = Exp(-11.392) * BSF ^ 3.3297 In the same way: ■ First-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.036) * BSF ^ 3.3297 I also used twice the residual standard deviation to define two extra bands: ■ Second-Upper-Band = Exp(-10.570) * BSF ^ 3.3297 ■ Second-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.858) * BSF ^ 3.3297 These bands can be used to determine overbought and oversold levels. Estimating of the future price movements Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future. At the time of the next halving event, Bitcoins will be produced at a rate of 450 BTC / day. There will be around 19,900,000 coins in circulation by August 2025 It is estimated that during first year of Bitcoin (2009) Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin creator) mined around 1 million Bitcoins and did not move them until today. It can be debated if those coins might be lost or Satoshi is just waiting still to sell them but the fact is that they are not moving at all ever since. We simply decrease stock amount for 1 million BTC so stock to flow value would be: BSF = (19,900,000 – 1.000.000) / (450 * 365) =115.07 Thus, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow will increase to around 115 until AUG 2025. If we put this number in the equation: Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * 114 ^ 3.3297 = 36.06$ Ripple has a fixed supply rate. In AUG 2025, the total number of coins in circulation will be about 56,000,000,000. According to the equation, Ripple's market cap will reach $2 trillion. Note that these studies have been conducted only to better understand price movements and are not a financial advice. Related indicator:
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDEducation
by BobRivera990
4
BTC Model 1: Longer Cycles = More MoneyI believe that TA is only so useful without good research and a models to back it up. I have been investing in crypto since the 2012, when a stoner friend of mine convinced me that BTC was going to be the money of the future and an exponential growth asset. Stoned as he was, he was also a heck of a math wiz and I guess he saw the potential for this currency very early on. I bought in 5k @ ~$10. He told me don't sell till it hits 100k. I happily sold most of it at $100 right as it started going back down, excited and full of emotion. How those emotions changed in only a few months as I saw it shoot up 10 over 1k and never hit 100 dollars again.... This model is the result of learning the hard way the importance of patience, not trading on feelings, and having a plan. I think this chart should speak for itself. The cycles are getting longer. Current price action is confirmation of this. This includes the halving cycle itself. It's not 4 years. It's not 3 years, 7 months, it's 210000 blocks. The time it takes to get there is a function of the rate of btc creation and how many machines are running and being added to the network. The second halving to the third halving took 6.91% longer than it did from between 1 and 2. This cycle will be important for determining what sort of variable we're really working with, but if we go from the implied growth rate of 6.91 we arrive at 1504 days till the next halving, 188 days more than the first halving. That's not exactly a small span of time, and plenty could happen within it. Btc has really never went below the green trend line since the halving events started. No reason to think it will any time soon. We're still a ways off, well within range of what's expected for the mid cycle shake out. Regarding that shakeout concept, I've heard the idea that price remembers. Here on this chart you can see that play out. Very interesting where this shakeout started when you look at cycle 1, isn't it? I expect us to go up till around the 511 day mark past the halving, have another scary bump like this, and then finally ascend to the true top. This pattern will repeat and overlap until it invalidates itself and could last several halvings/decades and become very complex. It should be noted that the only thing that took us out of the green wave was Covid, a global plague that killed tons of people. It also recovered quickly, in classic black swan fashion. I'd imagine that line is pretty safe, and that this slow bleed won't even touch it. BTC is an asset that is capable of exponential growth. It has shown a multi phase structure in the past, and I suspect that structure will continue, and become more complex. We have seen wave 1 of 2, possibly 3. the 2016 halving cycle started to produce a third wave, though it never put in a new ATH with it. This time it will, and then produce a 4th smaller wave after that during the bear market. 100k-200k is the range I'm looking for the cycle top in. If you think the run is over, I'd suggest we haven't even gotten started. What we all just saw is what I call the attention wave, it hooks everyone back into the market and tells big money to start looking again. Then they shake out all the unprepared new guys and cowards, and push us into the parabolic phase, which only gets supported by everyone buying back into it. Sure, that rise we saw is technically parabolic... but... well.... just wait.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoidiotQ
1
BTC/USD S2F trend modelAs a trend investor, I made my own S2F based on the trend of the pre-halving era, 1st and 2nd halving. I added some baby curves that can cross the wicks. Pre-halving era : - Lasted more than 28 months. - Made +15602.93% from $0.07 to $10.21 in 11 months - Angle of 66° 1st halving : - Lasted 44 months (x1.5714285714285714285714285714286 more than pre-halving era) - Made +4880.22% (/3.1971775862563572953678317780756 less than pre-halving era) from $10.21 to $508.48 in 12 months (x1.0909090909090909090909090909091 more than pre-halving era) - Angle of 58° (/1.1379310344827586206896551724138 less than pre-halving era) 2nd halving : - Lasted 46 months (x1.0454545454545454545454545454545 more than 1st halving = /1.5031055900621118012422360248448) - Made 1603.07% (/3.0442962565577298558391087101624 less than 1st halving = /3.0442962565577298558391087101624) from $508.48 to $8659.76 in 16 months (x1.3333333333333333333333333333333 more than 1st halving = x1.2222222222222222222222222222222) - Angle of 41° (/1.4146341463414634146341463414634 less than 1st halving = /1.2431633407243163340724316334072) 3rd halving : - Should last 32 months (x0.69552967693463561232156273478581 less than 2nd halving) - Should make 553.02583373988050817025363976673% (/2.8987253437314376227954450287342 less than 2nd halving) from $8659.76 -> $56550.46993987267 in 26 months (x1.6296296296296296296296296296296 more than 2nd halving = x1.2222222222222222222222222222222) - Should make an angle 36° (/1.1379310344827586206896551724138 less than 2nd halving = /1.2431633407243163340724316334072)
BNC:BLXLong
by Nugacity_Fracedinous
1
Distribution & Follow-Through DaysInvestor Business Daily model follows the model of distribution and follow-through days based on volume as follows: Distribution days: A distribution day is defined as a day in which the move by the index is moves -0.5% on stronger volume than the previous day. Follow-Through days: On Day 4 or later of the attempted rally, at least one of the key market indexes must deliver a strong gain in volume up from the previous day. That big gain in rising volume is the follow-through day, which confirms that a new uptrend is underway. A follow-through day can't pick the exact day that a market bottoms, but it can get you in close to the bottom. Because this model is intended to value the market health, and how market-makers are positioning themselves, this cluster historically signifies a more defensive market.
AMEX:SPYShort
by dorfmanmaster
1
Have We Actually Hit the Bottom Yet?Have we hit the bottom yet? Weekly 200MA which many people use point towards a double bottom test that we have had, yet other indicators which I believe are more useful in showing accumulation zones show that March's drop to 4k was not actually a second accumulation zone. You can check out this chart I have uploaded.... ibb.co CVDD and Balanced Price are really good indicators showing us where the market has bottomed. It does not appear to show a second accumulation bottom which the weekly 200MA does indeed show. Staying in the 4.2-4.5k zone for a short period of time I believe will be the true bottom.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Danimal69
3
Operation "Burnt Bear".This is possibly another good opportunity to hodl another portion of BTC while you still can afford it! The beloved by market makers tripple zigzag formation has just finished evolving. See xyz-w-xyz-w-xyz group. And some strong bullish divergences on 5m confirm it. Let.s run this rodeo, bulls!!!! Prepare for the lift off! Await further confirmations from the General in the coming hours. And some history lessons are in order too) Good luck to you, fellow trader! Long it to the skies! And hodl forever)))
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by orbborisson