Cycles and Their Impact on Market TrendsCycles are a powerful tool to integrate into your trading awareness. Plotting from bottom to bottom is the most straightforward way to visualize cycles. The concept of Hurst cycles comes into play here—they highlight the importance of understanding periodicity in market behavior. Hurst cycles focus on the timing of market movements and how price tends to repeat over consistent intervals, giving traders insight into potential future price action. They’re particularly useful for spotting turning points and understanding the rhythm of the market.
In this chart, I’ve drawn several green semicircles to illustrate cycles of varying lengths, from larger to smaller. While these cycles don’t always align perfectly, they offer a useful framework. It’s crucial to remember that when multiple cycles end or begin simultaneously, the resulting move (whether up or down) tends to be much stronger than when a single, smaller cycle completes on its own. What goes up must come down, and vice versa, but these fluctuations don’t change the overall degree of trend.
By acknowledging these cycles, you gain a better understanding of how market fluctuations occur. You can also backtest historical data and project forward to identify likely peaks and troughs in future trends. However, it’s important not to rely solely on cycle analysis. Combine it with your cocktail of methods—whether that’s Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, or other technical indicators—and look for patterns or signals that align across multiple strategies. The goal is to find where your methods “jive” and provide you with the most confidence in your market outlook.
Models
Forecast is for rain (market top)Chart shows SPY (2D) and the percentage of stocks above their 20DMA(aqua) and 200DMA (yellow).
Each series is the mean percentage of 7 index's which, in turn, aggregate several thousand underlying stocks. The 7 indexes: S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell, TSX, NYSE, AMEX
The peaks of the index coincide with market tops (as shown in the chart). Based on this pattern it's reasonable to forecast a top. Like the weather forecast, the timing is uncertain, the underlying averages lag, and their are plenty of false positives**.
Current forecast is for rain.
** Why do we listen to a weather forecast that we know is somewhat inaccurate? Because it's useful in answering questions like: "should i take an umbrella with me today?" **
All models (and indicators) are meant as useful approximations of reality.
AMC charting I made this a month ago. It was originally a fib speed resistance fan that I made with the ATH of 77$ and recent lows.
Then I put a fan box then removed the speed fan. Then put a speed fan on previous low at the date of previous ATH then match the fans left sided with the ATH of 77$. That have perfect accuracy
Tesla update The so-called "phantom braking" problem is being looked at by US regulator the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).
It received 354 complaints in the past nine months and its investigation will cover approximately 416,000 Tesla Model 3 and Model Y vehicles from 2021-22.
Drivers say the issue occurs using the Autopilot driver assistance system.
The feature gives the vehicle control over some elements of braking and steering when driving, although it is not a substitute for a human driver.
Despite the name, Tesla recommends drivers remain vigilant and supervise their vehicle, noting the Autopilot ADAS system "does not make the vehicle autonomous".
Tesla is currently under investigation by the NHTSA over two other matters.
In December 2021, it disabled its Passenger Play feature that allowed games to be played on its touchscreen while the car is in motion, leading to an open investigation covering an estimated 580,000 vehicles.
And last August, the NHTSA started to look into the role of the Autopilot system in 11 crashes involving emergency vehicles, covering approximately 765,000 Tesla cars.
Curvy Mayhem, Stock-to-Flow, and a Critique of Pure SimplicityDisclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not a statistician. I am not a trading/investing expert. I am a wildlife biologist. This is just a regurgitation of my research, thoughts, and opinions, along with my attempt at having fun with numbers to create an incredibly speculative model for Bitcoin’s future price action. Hang in there folks, this is a long one.
Since I entered the crypto realm in 2017 (I know, such a newbie), I have been obsessed with Bitcoin’s historical logarithmic price chart. Something about the way it smoothly sweeps across the orders of magnitude separating its former obscurity from its financial relevance has drawn me into a fantasy of elegant mathematics, an illusion of design, and a tempting allure for fate. The hindsight is heavy, and it all seems so simple, but it rarely ever is. I often see BTC log charts with curves that march atop the market cycle peaks or support the lengthy slumber of the prices below. I’ve fallen into this habit myself, but these curves are all equally vapid. You can fit infinite curves to any three points after all. (Which of the twelve curves above is the correct one? I personally like light green.) When we create models, we mustn’t be arbitrary for the sake of beauty. What feels right is usually not what ends up being right. Any experienced day-trader will tell you this. We need objectivity.
Financial models are hard to create. For centuries, humans have struggled to keep up with the emergent complexity of the markets they formed. The intricacies of our systems tend to outpace us, and some things forever elude our understanding. However, we desire simple answers to complex questions. We see patterns in everything; it’s just an evolutionary heuristic that our prehistoric ancestors utilized for hunting, gathering, and not dying. But in our hyper-complex modern world, this feature of pattern recognition is usually used to a fault. In the following paragraphs, I outline some issues with models created by others and myself. On the surface, these models appear elegant and well-fit, but when we delve into the assumptions behind such models we often find that simple answers are woefully insufficient to predict the future of a complex and turbulent world.
BITCOIN STOCK TO FLOW MODEL
While the controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model introduced in 2019 by Plan B has proven to be a good fit for Bitcoin’s early price growth thus far, there are several fundamental problems with the model, like failure to account for demand as an influence of price and the lack of a relationship between price and S2F in other scarce stores of value including cryptocurrencies. But perhaps worst of all, this model fails to address the growth-resistant factors that Bitcoin will soon face. Linear regression models on a log-log plot predict infinite growth when extrapolated. Whether limitations arise from resource depletion, social and political behaviour through competition and regulation, or even the laws of physics, nothing can grow indefinitely.
So what will ultimately limit Bitcoin? Let’s start with the energy consumption problem. Bitcoin already consumes about 0.5% of the world’s energy supply, more than most individual countries on the planet, and this percentage is increasing rapidly. The issue lies with Bitcoin’s proof-of-work architecture, an algorithm used in the Bitcoin blockchain that incentivizes miners to expend computational energy to cryptographically secure others’ transactions. As speculation drives the price of Bitcoin higher and the available minable supply decreases, miners face greater competition and expend more energy. Eventually, and probably sooner than later, Bitcoin’s price will rise to such a level that the hash rate, and subsequent mining cost, will no longer be able to keep up. Even putting human behaviour aside, Bitcoin’s energy consumption would exceed the entire energy supply on Earth by the 2030’s given the unfettered growth predicted by the S2F model. This may be the gravest threat to Bitcoin’s development into an economic juggernaut, though some solutions like proof-of-stake have been proposed to address this crisis.
Two more restrictive factors on Bitcoin’s price are governmental regulation and financial pressure. For the most part, Bitcoin has been allowed to grow naturally without too much interference. However, as it becomes a more significant market force, powerful governmental and financial forces will inevitably attempt to influence, control, or even destroy it. Perhaps the latter is unlikely to happen, if not impossible to do, but market adoption can absolutely be decelerated, leading to a suppression of demand and price.
Finally, assuming relatively tame fiat inflation rates, there’s not even enough money on Earth to support the level of growth predicted by the S2F model for even a couple more decades. Eventually, the market will become saturated, demand will diminish, and the price will stabilize. The only way this model works and gives us bitcoins worth $1 trillion in 2050 is if USD inflation goes nuclear and sends the global economy into abject chaos. Even Plan B has admitted as much. By then, your crypto gains would probably be the last thing on your mind.
I think it’s clear that any models attempting to predict the future price of Bitcoin need to include a factor that limits growth over time or extrapolates from existing decelerating price patterns. So I decided to create two alternative models based solely on Bitcoin’s price history. For simplicity’s sake, I chose the more speculative route of creating a model based on the peaks of each of Bitcoin’s bubbles. (Note: Data used in statistical analysis was monthly high bitcoin prices collected from barchart.com and yahoo finance.)
FOUR-PARAMETER LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL
Even a brief glance at the logarithmic chart shows a pattern of price bursts steadily decreasing in intensity, revealing a long-term trend of logistic growth. This is not surprising, considering it gets prohibitively harder to 10x a market cap the second, third, or eighth time around. The best-fitting model for four points following a logistic pattern is, of course, the four-parameter logistic model. This provides a moving target for an end to this bull run. (Note: I made this chart before INDEX:BTCUSD was released, so pre-August 2011 prices were drawn in)
Despite giving a tamer near-term outlook, this model still overestimates long-term prices and runs into many of the same problems as S2F, leveling out at a price of 10^230 USD long after our planet is gone and stars stop forming… but at least it levels out. I would also argue that this model is heavily overfitted, using four parameters given only four data points. Furthermore, it places too much emphasis on the starting price of Bitcoin, which may have had little or no influence on its future price.
MARKET CYCLE RATE-OF-INCREASE POWER REGRESSION MODEL
Instead, I looked to a different measure to predict Bitcoin’s bubble behaviour: price increase over time within each market cycle, extrapolated with a power regression model. I defined market cycles as the time between peaks and calculated the percentage price increase over time (in months) from peak to peak. During the first cycle, when Bitcoin jumped from its first-traded value of $0.09 to about $30, the rate of increase over time was astronomical. The percentage rise of each subsequent bubble has decreased since then while market cycles have lengthened. This gives us three complete market cycles ending in June 2011, November 2013, and December 2017, and three data points describing, as an average monthly percentage, the constant rates of increase in price from one peak to the next. Extrapolated with a power regression (y = 2758x^-4.119; R^2 = 0.994), we are left with a shallower rate of increase between the 2017 peak and the approaching peak. This again provides a linear moving target for an end to the run. On a logarithmic chart, the straight lines between peaks look a little different.
This model proves much more flexible than many others. Instead of a specific date or price level, Bitcoin is free to trade however it wishes until the moving target is hit, whereupon the bubble will deflate and we enter a new cycle with a new sloped upper bound. The slope of this bound is determined by the previous market-cycle peak price and the next rate-of-increase value provided by the power regression. These slopes constantly increase, but by less and less each cycle until the price of Bitcoin plateaus. The price level of this ceiling would be determined by the frequency/length of market cycles. Time itself acts as (or at least tracks) the decelerating force.
So, it’s a fun model, and quite pretty on a logarithmic chart, but how good is it actually? Well…
Problems with this model:
It fails to properly define peaks. One can gain an intuitive sense of when each bubble ended, but without an objective definition of this point, the very parameters on which this model relies can be interpreted differently by others. How are we to know if this current run has ended? Was the spike in April 2013 a peak? (Probably not, but you get the point). This one is easy enough to remedy, but I can’t be bothered.
We have only three data points, hardly enough to make a reliable trend, let alone one we can extrapolate (Counterpoint: The power regression extrapolation of only the first two points predicts the third with a surprisingly reasonable margin of error for these scales – about 0.2 orders of magnitude, suggesting this model may already have some predictive power. In other words, if you had followed this dubious two-point model in 2017, you’d have sold at about $12,000.). Additionally, extrapolation leaves us with a much greater margin of error than interpolation, especially when we’re working with such a small sample size. At this point, we risk falling into the trap of moving the goalposts by adjusting our model to match new data as it comes in, not unlike what has been done with the S2F model. This ad hoc method constantly maintains the fit of a model but proves that the initial version had somewhat poor long-term predictive power to begin with.
This model also places too much emphasis on Bitcoin’s starting price in July 2010. I find it unlikely that this asset’s long-term growth dynamics were heavily influenced by this initial value.
It relies on the assumption that the declining rate-of-increase of market-cycle price peaks can be extrapolated into the future. It might be possible to justify this, but I can’t be bothered. This write-up is already nearing 2,000 words.
The use of a power regression forces the assumption that long-term growth will never be negative; instead, Bitcoin will approach a plateau at some point. While there are any number of black swan events that could deflate Bitcoin’s price, no simple price extrapolation model can predict and incorporate these possibilities with any reliability.
If this model somehow plays out perfectly, I’d be elated. But I wouldn’t have been right. I’d have been lucky. The possibilities for Bitcoin’s behaviour during this cycle and the next are innumerable. All you need is 3 data points and you can make anything happen. Perhaps you remember that colorful, curvy chart a bit further up. However, that doesn’t mean it’s not fun to try. Probing the long-term price action of a novel market with statistical fervor has proven to be a rather entertaining and educational experience. It also shows the difficulty, and perhaps the futility, of finding simple solutions to incredibly complex systems.
CONCLUSION
I recently watched a youtube video posted by an astrophysicist. He discussed whether we should rely on beauty and simplicity when creating models to accurately describe the intricate and incredibly complex details of our physical universe. Take the theory of gravity and planetary motion, for example. As physicists, theoreticians, and thinkers studied the skies for millennia and searched for simple answers, the theories progressed from that of circular orbits, to more complex ellipses, to a law for gravitational attraction, to requiring special and general relativity – a dramatic increase in complexity and certainly a less beautiful solution, even if more accurate. I have noticed the same trend in my own field. The theories describing ecosystem equilibrium and the interactions between species have grown more complex as ecologists learn more about the biosphere at various resolutions. I believe these same principles can be applied to most aspects of reality. Simplicity has its place, but we often take it for granted. As tempting as simplicity and beauty are, we mustn’t fail to respect and embrace the complexity of our world, however we interact with it.
TRADERSAI - A.I.POWERED NIFTY50 TRADING PLANS for TUE 08/11Hey folks,
The trading levels for today, TUE 08/11, are as given in the chart (these are same as the levels for yesterday, Mon 08/10). Read below for more details.
Our debut message below (published on Thursday, 07/30) explains the notation and how to interpret the trading plans we publish, and who we are in this space. This is the Trading Day-7 of our limited test-launch for the Indian stock market NIFTY 50 Index. Appreciate your feedback and comments.
NOTE: Pay attention to the Take Profit and Stop Loss levels added as note ( iii ) below.
Good luck with your trading today!
***********************************************************
Hey everyone!
After two years of unprecedented growth and consistent performance in the US with daily trading plans on the S&P 500 Index , we are now testing our models on the Indian stock markets with the NIFTY 50 Futures . This is our debut for you all who have been waiting for it!
While we know this would enthrall many readers that have been asking for it, we are cautious about jumping on these trades right away - give these models a few days, see how they perform, and then begin to adapt them to your own trading style and risk appetite. And, please do share your feedback, thoughts, ideas, and suggestions about anything glaring or missing - we are new to the Indian markets and are still trying to learn its idiosyncrasies. Thank you!
Notation:
(i) Use these line crosses on your choice of time frame chart.
Most aggressive - on a 1-minute chart
Moderate - 5 to 15 minute chart
Intraday swing - 30 minute chart
Note that the lower your time frame, the more choppiness and whipsawing you might experience in your results.
(ii) Cross Above (Below) - triggered when the previous close was below (above) the line and the current close is above (below). Aggressive traders may use other criteria such as high crossing the line, close crossing the line without regard to the previous close, etc.
Solid Green Line: Models would go long on a cross above this line
Dotted Green Line: Models would close out a short (buy to close an open short but NOT go long). You can use Close-to-Close basis OR Open-to-Close basis OR Low-to-High, depending on your trading style.
Solid Red Line: Models would go short on a cross below this line
Dotted Red Line: Models would close out a long (sell to close an open buy but NOT go short). You can use Close-to-Close basis OR Open-to-Close basis OR High-to-High, depending on your trading style.
( iii ) Take Profit: Our NIFTY models are currently using a 20-point trailing stop activated once a 10-point profit level is reached.
Stop Loss: Our NIFTY models are currently using a 20-point stop loss level activated at the entry.
This is NOT an investment advice. This is meant for experienced traders to use as another tool to inform and guide their own trading decisions.
TRADERSAI - A.I.POWERED NIFTY TRADING PLANS for MON 08/09Hey folks,
The trading levels for today, MON 08/09, are as given in the chart. Read below for more details.
Our debut message below (published on Thursday, 07/30) explains the notation and how to interpret the trading plans we publish, and who we are in this space. This is the Trading Day-7 of our limited test-launch for the Indian stock market NIFTY 50 Index. Appreciate your feedback and comments.
NOTE: Pay attention to the Take Profit and Stop Loss levels added as note ( iii ) below.
Good luck with your trading today!
***********************************************************
Hey everyone!
After two years of unprecedented growth and consistent performance in the US with daily trading plans on the S&P 500 Index , we are now testing our models on the Indian stock markets with the NIFTY 50 Futures . This is our debut for you all who have been waiting for it!
While we know this would enthrall many readers that have been asking for it, we are cautious about jumping on these trades right away - give these models a few days, see how they perform, and then begin to adapt them to your own trading style and risk appetite. And, please do share your feedback, thoughts, ideas, and suggestions about anything glaring or missing - we are new to the Indian markets and are still trying to learn its idiosyncrasies. Thank you!
Notation:
(i) Use these line crosses on your choice of time frame chart.
Most aggressive - on a 1-minute chart
Moderate - 5 to 15 minute chart
Intraday swing - 30 minute chart
Note that the lower your time frame, the more choppiness and whipsawing you might experience in your results.
(ii) Cross Above (Below) - triggered when the previous close was below (above) the line and the current close is above (below). Aggressive traders may use other criteria such as high crossing the line, close crossing the line without regard to the previous close, etc.
Solid Green Line: Models would go long on a cross above this line
Dotted Green Line: Models would close out a short (buy to close an open short but NOT go long). You can use Close-to-Close basis OR Open-to-Close basis OR Low-to-High, depending on your trading style.
Solid Red Line: Models would go short on a cross below this line
Dotted Red Line: Models would close out a long (sell to close an open buy but NOT go short). You can use Close-to-Close basis OR Open-to-Close basis OR High-to-High, depending on your trading style.
( iii ) Take Profit: Our NIFTY models are currently using a 20-point trailing stop activated once a 15-point profit level is reached.
Stop Loss: Our NIFTY models are currently using a 30-point stop loss level activated at the entry.
This is NOT an investment advice. This is meant for experienced traders to use as another tool to inform and guide their own trading decisions.
TRADERSAI - A.I.POWERED NIFTY50 TRADING PLANS for THU 08/06
Hey everyone,
The trading levels for today, THU 08/06, are the same as for yesterday. Read below for more details.
Our debut message below (published on Thursday, 07/30) explains the notation and how to interpret the trading plans we publish, and who we are in this space. This is the Trading Day-5 of our limited test-launch for the Indian stock market NIFTY 50 Index. Appreciate your feedback and comments.
NOTE: Pay attention to the Take Profit and Stop Loss levels added as note ( iii ) below.
Good luck with your trading today!
***********************************************************
Hey everyone!
After two years of unprecedented growth and consistent performance in the US with daily trading plans on the S&P 500 Index , we are now testing our models on the Indian stock markets with the NIFTY 50 Futures . This is our debut for you all who have been waiting for it!
While we know this would enthrall many readers that have been asking for it, we are cautious about jumping on these trades right away - give these models a few days, see how they perform, and then begin to adapt them to your own trading style and risk appetite. And, please do share your feedback, thoughts, ideas, and suggestions about anything glaring or missing - we are new to the Indian markets and are still trying to learn its idiosyncrasies. Thank you!
Notation:
(i) Use these line crosses on your choice of time frame chart.
Most aggressive - on a 1-minute chart
Moderate - 5 to 15 minute chart
Intraday swing - 30 minute chart
Note that the lower your time frame, the more choppiness and whipsawing you might experience in your results.
(ii) Cross Above (Below) - triggered when the previous close was below (above) the line and the current close is above (below). Aggressive traders may use other criteria such as high crossing the line, close crossing the line without regard to the previous close, etc.
Solid Green Line: Models would go long on a cross above this line
Dotted Green Line: Models would close out a short (buy to close an open short but NOT go long). You can use Close-to-Close basis OR Open-to-Close basis OR Low-to-High, depending on your trading style.
Solid Red Line: Models would go short on a cross below this line
Dotted Red Line: Models would close out a long (sell to close an open buy but NOT go short). You can use Close-to-Close basis OR Open-to-Close basis OR High-to-High, depending on your trading style.
( iii ) Take Profit: Our NIFTY models are currently using a 20-point trailing stop activated once a 15-point profit level is reached.
Stop Loss: Our NIFTY models are currently using a 30-point stop loss level activated at the entry.
This is NOT an investment advice. This is meant for experienced traders to use as another tool to inform and guide their own trading decisions.
TRADERSAI - A.I.POWERED NIFTY TRADING PLANS for WED 08/05Hey guys and gals,
Our debut message below (published on Thursday, 07/30) explains the notation and how to interpret the trading plans we publish, and who we are in this space. This is the Trading Day-5 of our limited test-launch for the Indian stock market NIFTY 50 Index. Appreciate your feedback and comments.
NOTE: Pay attention to the Take Profit and Stop Loss levels added as note (iii) below.
Good luck with your trading today!
***********************************************************
Hey everyone!
After two years of unprecedented growth and consistent performance in the US with daily trading plans on the S&P 500 Index , we are now testing our models on the Indian stock markets with the NIFTY 50 Futures . This is our debut for you all who have been waiting for it!
While we know this would enthrall many readers that have been asking for it, we are cautious about jumping on these trades right away - give these models a few days, see how they perform, and then begin to adapt them to your own trading style and risk appetite. And, please do share your feedback, thoughts, ideas, and suggestions about anything glaring or missing - we are new to the Indian markets and are still trying to learn its idiosyncrasies. Thank you!
Notation:
(i) Use these line crosses on your choice of time frame chart.
Most aggressive - on a 1-minute chart
Moderate - 5 to 15 minute chart
Intraday swing - 30 minute chart
Note that the lower your time frame, the more choppiness and whipsawing you might experience in your results.
(ii) Cross Above (Below) - triggered when the previous close was below (above) the line and the current close is above (below). Aggressive traders may use other criteria such as high crossing the line, close crossing the line without regard to the previous close, etc.
Solid Green Line: Models would go long on a cross above this line
Dotted Green Line: Models would close out a short (buy to close an open short but NOT go long). You can use Close-to-Close basis OR Open-to-Close basis OR Low-to-High, depending on your trading style.
Solid Red Line: Models would go short on a cross below this line
Dotted Red Line: Models would close out a long (sell to close an open buy but NOT go short). You can use Close-to-Close basis OR Open-to-Close basis OR High-to-High, depending on your trading style.
(iii) Take Profit: Our NIFTY models are currently using a 20-point trailing stop activated once a 15-point profit level is reached.
Stop Loss: Our NIFTY models are currently using a 30-point stop loss level activated at the entry.
This is NOT an investment advice. This is meant for experienced traders to use as another tool to inform and guide their own trading decisions.
TRADERSAI - A.I.POWERED NIFTY50 TRADING PLANS for TUE 08/04 Hey all,
Our debut message below (published on Thursday, 07/30) explains the notation and how to interpret the trading plans we publish, and who we are in this space. This is the Trading Day-4 of our limited test-launch for the Indian stock market NIFTY 50 Index. Appreciate your feedback and comments.
Good luck with your trading today and have a great week ahead!
***********************************************************
Hey everyone!
After two years of unprecedented growth and consistent performance in the US with daily trading plans on the S&P 500 Index , we are now testing our models on the Indian stock markets with the NIFTY 50 Futures . This is our debut for you all who have been waiting for it!
While we know this would enthrall many readers that have been asking for it, we are cautious about jumping on these trades right away - give these models a few days, see how they perform, and then begin to adapt them to your own trading style and risk appetite. And, please do share your feedback, thoughts, ideas, and suggestions about anything glaring or missing - we are new to the Indian markets and are still trying to learn its idiosyncrasies. Thank you!
Legend:
(i) Use these line crosses on your choice of time frame chart.
Most aggressive - on a 1-minute chart
Moderate - 5 to 15 minute chart
Intraday swing - 30 minute chart
Note that the lower your time frame, the more choppiness and whipsawing you might experience in your results.
(ii) Cross Above (Below) - triggered when the previous close was below (above) the line and the current close is above (below). Aggressive traders may use other criteria such as high crossing the line, close crossing the line without regard to the previous close, etc.
Solid Green Line: Models would go long on a cross above this line
Dotted Green Line: Models would close out a short (buy to close an open short but NOT go long). You can use Close-to-Close basis OR Open-to-Close basis OR Low-to-High, depending on your trading style.
Solid Red Line: Models would go short on a cross below this line
Dotted Red Line: Models would close out a long (sell to close an open buy but NOT go short). You can use Close-to-Close basis OR Open-to-Close basis OR High-to-High, depending on your trading style.
This is NOT an investment advice. This is meant for experienced traders to use as another tool to inform and guide their own trading decisions.
TRADERSAI - A.I.POWERED NIFTY50 TRADING PLANS for MON 08/03 Hey all,
Our debut message below (published on Thursday, 07/30) explains the notation and how to interpret the trading plans we publish, and who we are in this space. This is the Trading Day-3 of our limited test-launch for the Indian stock market NIFTY 50 Index. Appreciate your feedback and comments.
Good luck with your trading today and have a great week ahead!
***********************************************************
Hey everyone!
After two years of unprecedented growth and consistent performance in the US with daily trading plans on the S&P 500 Index , we are now testing our models on the Indian stock markets with the NIFTY 50 Futures . This is our debut for you all who have been waiting for it!
While we know this would enthrall many readers that have been asking for it, we are cautious about jumping on these trades right away - give these models a few days, see how they perform, and then begin to adapt them to your own trading style and risk appetite. And, please do share your feedback, thoughts, ideas, and suggestions about anything glaring or missing - we are new to the Indian markets and are still trying to learn its idiosyncrasies. Thank you!
Legend:
(i) Use these line crosses on your choice of time frame chart.
Most aggressive - on a 1-minute chart
Moderate - 5 to 15 minute chart
Intraday swing - 30 minute chart
Note that the lower your time frame, the more choppiness and whipsawing you might experience in your results.
(ii) Cross Above (Below) - triggered when the previous close was below (above) the line and the current close is above (below). Aggressive traders may use other criteria such as high crossing the line, close crossing the line without regard to the previous close, etc.
Solid Green Line: Models would go long on a cross above this line
Dotted Green Line: Models would close out a short (buy to close an open short but NOT go long). You can use Close-to-Close basis OR Open-to-Close basis OR Low-to-High, depending on your trading style.
Solid Red Line: Models would go short on a cross below this line
Dotted Red Line: Models would close out a long (sell to close an open buy but NOT go short). You can use Close-to-Close basis OR Open-to-Close basis OR High-to-High, depending on your trading style.
This is NOT an investment advice. This is meant for experienced traders to use as another tool to inform and guide their own trading decisions.
TRADERSAI - A.I. POWERED NIFTY50 TRADING PLANS for FRI 07/31 Hey all,
Our debut message below explains the legend and how to interpret the trading plans we publish, and who we are in this space. This is the Day-2 of our limited test-launch for the Indian stock market. Appreciate your feedback.
Good luck with your trading today and have a great weekend ahead!
***********************************************************
Hey everyone!
After two years of unprecedented growth and consistent performance in the US with daily trading plans on the S&P 500 Index , we are now testing our models on the Indian stock markets with the NIFTY 50 Futures . This is our debut for you all who have been waiting for it!
While we know this would enthrall many readers that have been asking for it, we are cautious about jumping on these trades right away - give these models a few days, see how they perform, and then begin to adapt them to your own trading style and risk appetite. And, please do share your feedback, thoughts, ideas, and suggestions about anything glaring or missing - we are new to the Indian markets and are still trying to learn its idiosyncrasies. Thank you!
Legend:
(i) Use these line crosses on your choice of time frame chart.
Most aggressive - on a 1-minute chart
Moderate - 5 to 15 minute chart
Intraday swing - 30 minute chart
Note that the lower your time frame, the more choppiness and whipsawing you might experience in your results.
(ii) Cross Above (Below) - triggered when the previous close was below (above) the line and the current close is above (below). Aggressive traders may use other criteria such as high crossing the line, close crossing the line without regard to the previous close, etc.
Solid Green Line: Models would go long on a cross above this line
Dotted Green Line: Models would close out a short (buy to close an open short but NOT go long)
Solid Red Line: Models would go short on a cross below this line
Dotted Red Line: Models would close out a long (sell to close an open buy but NOT go short)
This is NOT an investment advice. This is meant for experienced traders to use as another tool to inform and guide their own trading decisions.
S&P 500 MODEL TRADES for THU 12/26Tread Lightly in this Light Trading
Compulsive trading could lead to hazardous outcomes. It is even more applicable in low liquid markets and market days. Exaggerated moves likely in either direction to wipe out weak hands/stops until normal liquidity and volumes return post holidays.
Structurally, we are still in the bull territory. A daily close below 3180 is needed to put the bulls under pressure again. But, the bear is NOT visible in the vicinity, until a daily close below 3140.
Read below to check out our models' trading plans for the day. And, whether a bull or a bear, take some time off the markets to bond with family and friends, and spread and share the holiday spirit!
tradersai.com
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #china, #tradewar, #recession, #yields, #tariffs, #impeachment, #economy
TRADERSAI.com - A.I.POWERED S&P 500 MODEL TRADES for TUE 10/01Pivotal Month Ahead: For Today, New Month in-flows to Keep the Markets (Artificially) Up?
In the absence of any major drivers, markets are mainly driven by exogenous factors such as the quarter end window dressing (yesterday), and potentially beginning of the month inflows today.
As we wrote on Friday morning, the SPX is stuck in a range of 2945-2995, until something pushes it out meaningfully in either direction. In the meantime, expect directionless meandering within this range.
Read below for our models' trading plans for today.
tradersai.com
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #china, #tradewar, #recession, #yields, #tariffs, #impeachment
TRADERSAI - A.I. POWERED MODEL TRADES for Today, MON 09/23Geopolitical Headlines or Economic Releases to Dominate this Week?
Expect a lot of headlines involving the United Nations, the unfolding Trump-Ukraine scandal, and key economic releases this week (Consumer Confidence, Advance Trade Balance, GDP number, Durable Goods, and PCE Core).
Which one of these could drive the markets which way is anybody's guess, but our models indicate a slow grind up rather than down unless some major negative headline hits the wires. Read below for our models' trading plans for today.
tradersai.com
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #china, #tradewar, #recession, #yields, #tariffs, #Fed, #Saudi, #Iran, #FOMC, #UnitedNations
TRADERSAI - A.I. POWERED MODEL TRADES for Today, FRI 09/20No Bad News is Good News, For Now
With the Fed in the rear view mirror(?), the trade dispute rhetoric appearing to be cooling off (could change with one tweet, though), and the geopolitical headlines not portending the sky falling off...markets are sporting a buoyant bias this morning.
In the absence of major macro drivers and in the light of the weekly option expiration today, open interest around major options strikes and other market micro structure related factors likely to determine the market action today. Read below for our models' trading plans for today.
tradersai.com
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #china, #tradewar, #recession, #yields, #tariffs, #Fed, #Saudi, #Iran, #FOMC
TRADERSAI - A.I. POWERED MODEL TRADING for Today, THU 09/19Spike in Overnight Funding Rates an Anomaly or the Tip of the Iceberg?
The Fed has announced their operation in the overnight funding market today morning to arrest the spike in their rates - third time in as many days. The last time they had to do this was in 2008. Observers are scratching their heads to figure out just what might be going on - is this a temporary cash crunch or just the tip of something more ominous that is yet to surface?
For now - as of this morning - the equity futures markets seem to be not too concerned by it (or, by the increasing noise of the US-Saudi-Iran rhetoric). Unless these operations become more frequent, chances are that this would fade away; but, IF if it does repeat and raise concerns of potential spread to other markets, it could be a replay of 2008! While no need to panic right now, be alert to any further developments in this space. Read below for our models' trading plans for today.
tradersai.com
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #china, #tradewar, #recession, #yields, #tariffs, #Fed, #Saudi, #Iran, #FOMC, #iceberg
TRADERSAI - A.I. POWERED MODEL TRADES for Today, WED 09/18Interest Rates and Powell to Trump Everything Else Today
The geopolitical scenario hasn't changed dramatically over the last couple of days, but the markets' focus will be entirely on the FOMC rate decision and outlook today. While the 25 basis point cut is almost a given, the outlook for future rate cuts is going to be the key that determines the market direction today, after 2pm EST.
While the outlook is anybody's guess, and is completely dynamic and dependent on many exogenous factors that even the Fed can not control or predict, pundits will be parsing every word Powell utters and does not utter, and the markets will be obsessed on the "outlook interpretation". Expect huge volatility and spikes in either direction surrounding the announcement, with only the daily close to give some small sense of the near term direction. Read below for our models' trading plans for today.
tradersai.com
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #china, #tradewar, #recession, #yields, #tariffs, #Fed, #Saudi, #Iran, #FOMC