Motor Oil Q3 - 9M Performance ReviewMotor Oil has reported its financial results for the first nine months of 2024, revealing a significant drop in net profitability. The company faced pressures due to global energy instability, geopolitical tensions, and a catastrophic fire at its refinery in Kalamaki, Corinth.
Significant Profit Decline
Motor Oil’s financial data showed a 68.9% reduction in net profits, amounting to €224.05 million, down from €717.25 million in the same period of 2023. The third quarter was particularly unfavorable, recording net losses of €137.9 million, offsetting positive performances in the earlier part of the year.
This decline in profitability was attributed to:
Reduced refining margins
Increased operating costs due to the refinery fire
Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, which heightened energy market volatility and disrupted operations
Stable Revenues but Lower EBITDA
Revenue for the nine months reached €9.368 billion, a marginal decline of 6% compared to €9.968 billion in the same period in 2023. However, EBITDA dropped by 34% to €768 million, reflecting lower efficiency in refinery operations and reduced product margins.
Notable changes in product margins:
Jet Fuel margins decreased from $31.6/bbl in Q3 2023 to $15.7/bbl in Q3 2024.
Increased Investments and Negative Cash Flow
Despite challenges, Motor Oil maintained its investment strategy:
Capital expenditures (Capex) rose to €298 million in 2024, compared to €246 million in 2023, underscoring its commitment to clean energy and sustainable development.
However, free cash flows turned negative at -€129 million, a stark contrast to the positive €746 million in 2023. Net debt also increased to €1.836 billion from €1.518 billion at the end of 2023, due to higher investments and liquidity pressures.
Extraordinary Refinery Taxation
The company’s tax obligations have been affected by new policies:
In July 2024, Law 5122/2024 introduced a temporary solidarity contribution of 33% on taxable profits exceeding 20% of the average taxable profits for the 2018-2021 period, as defined by EU Regulation 1854/2022.
The Pillar II Global Tax initiative mandates a 15% minimum tax rate for multinational enterprises with annual revenues above €750 million, effective from January 2024. While this affects Motor Oil’s activities in the UAE, Croatia, and Cyprus, the impact is expected to be minimal.
Dividend Distributions
Motor Oil continues its tradition of rewarding shareholders:
For 2023, a total gross dividend of €199.41 million (€1.80 per share) was approved and distributed in two phases.
An interim dividend of €0.30 per share was declared for 2024, payable on January 3, 2025.
Risk Management and Corporate Governance
Amid geopolitical tensions and economic instability, Motor Oil has strengthened its risk management framework:
Three Lines of Defense Model:
Operational units assess and manage risks.
Risk Management and Compliance Units provide oversight and guidance.
The Internal Audit Unit independently evaluates the system’s effectiveness.
Financial risks, including commodity price, currency exchange, and interest rate fluctuations, are managed using financial derivatives.
Additionally, the company remains committed to transitioning to clean energy and sustainable practices, integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria into decision-making processes.
Challenges and Resilience
Motor Oil has faced significant challenges in 2024, including:
Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Fluctuations in energy prices and exchange rates.
The decline in Brent crude prices from $87/bbl in Q3 2023 to $80/bbl in Q3 2024.
Recent developments include:
Competition Fine: A €9.2 million fine from the Hellenic Competition Commission, contested by the company.
Fire Incident: A fire on September 17, 2024, reduced refinery capacity to 65-80%. Repairs are underway, with full capacity expected by Q3 2025.
Leadership Changes: Following the passing of Chairman Vardis I. Vardinogiannis, the Board appointed Ioannis V. Vardinogiannis as Chairman and Georgios Prousanidis as Vice Chairman.
Outlook
Motor Oil remains focused on adapting to evolving market conditions, maintaining its resilience and commitment to long-term sustainability and growth. While 2024 has been marked by challenges, the company’s strategic direction and robust risk management frameworks position it for recovery and continued success.
MOH
New all-time highs for MOH stock predicted good continuation..Motor Oil has reached a point which is historically high. The stock has made incredible profits and the refining margins favor the continuation of this path. its dividend yield year after year is stable and increases a little.
At these levels of course it needs attention positioning . We remain hold and in any case, we buy, especially when the price drops below 10 euros...
MOH, price moved above its 50-day Moving Average on November 02This price move could indicate a change in the trend, and may be a buy signal for investors. Tickeron A.I.dvisor found 45 similar cases, and 40 were successful. Based on this data, the odds of success are 89%. Current price $212.10 is above $193.02 the highest resistance line found by Tickeron A.I. Throughout the month of 10/01/20 - 11/02/20, the price experienced a +6% Uptrend, while the week of 10/26/20 - 11/02/20 shows a -3% Downtrend.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 10-day Moving Average for MOH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2020. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +2.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MOH advanced for three days, in 246 of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
MOH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 187 of 261 cases where MOH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.
$MOH tight consolidation at ATH - Long@173/Target 200 - 5/1/2020MOH (Biotech stock) has been consolidating tightly at ATH. There is clear R/S in this name despite the recent market weakness. On the 65m chart, MOH cleared the HVN above 172 and looks primed for continuation next week. Went long at the HVN break and above the intraday higher high.
Entry - 172.96
Stop Loss - 165
Target - 200
I will continue to update this post as the trade develops.
MOH GOOD BUY - AT 52.00Molina Healthcare is led by a physician and Molina family members remain in leadership roles at the company.
Today, J. Mario Molina, MD (a son of the founder C. David Molina, MD), who made his start sweeping Molina Medical Clinic floors as a child, now serves as company president and CEO.
I like the stock of this company at 52 because it has been showing good Results on the income statement for the past five years and had a good looking Annual Income Statement Report for 2015 in my opinion. Also on the technical side we can see that is a stock that remains above the 20 and the 50 SMA , besides it is lower than the 200 day moving average. Besides this because it has been closing positively on the past five years I take this as a good investment if we are expecting to keep the stock at least until December.
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Willing to serve, God Bless You All.