Get started

Momentum Indicator (MOM)

Simple RSI-MA Algo Beats DOW By Huge Margin Over Past 100 Years!This simple RSI-MA long/short algorithm beats the Dow by a FREAKING HUGE margin over the past century (excluding dividends and trading costs). The algorithm uses a fast SMA of the RSI as a buy/cover signal and a slow SMA of the RSI as a sell/short signal. Backtest period = 09/17/1916 - 11/02/2015 DJIA = 98 --> 17,830 = +18,094% = 5.38% CAGR Algorithm = net profit + open P/L = +43,349% = 6.31% CAGR Notice how the algorithm dodged both the 30s' Great Depression and the 2008 Crisis. Pretty cool huh? :) ALGORITHM'S FORMULA (use weekly chart): Buy/Cover = MA10(RSI10) cross> 50 Sell/Short = MA50(RSI10) cross< 50 STRATEGY TESTER'S SETTINGS: - Initial cash = $10,000 - Pyramiding disabled - Re-investment enabled (order size = 100% of equity) - Trade re-calculations disabled DISCLAIMER: None of my ideas and posts are investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This strategy was constructed with the benefit of hindsight and its future performance cannot be guaranteed.
DJ:DJI
by Stable_Camel
4
SPX Long/Short Momentum Algorithm Beats S&P500 By A Huge Margin!This simple algorithm uses Exponential Moving Averages of the S&P 500's Relative Strength Index to trigger buy/sell and short/cover signals on a daily chart. I've backtested the algorithm for SPY (1994-present), SPX (1981-present), SPX500 (1971-present), and it beats the S&P 500 in every occasion. The algorithm cannot correctly time every single crash or correction but for the most part, it can avoid and even profit from most major market downturns. Backtest results show that it would have timed both the 2000 and 2008 crashes beautifully. By the way, a new sell/short signal was generated just a few days ago. The last time this happened was in 2008. Hmm... :) Algorithm Rules: Long Entry/Short Exit = EMA100(RSI50) cross> 50 Long Exit/Short Entry = EMA200(RSI50) cross< 50 Enjoy! ~Kory
AMEX:SPY
by Stable_Camel
2
USDCAD Potential Swing to the Upside *READ* Rules for EntryI often see much debate about how to use trend lines among traders. You hear a lot of people with very strict rules for drawing trend lines, however price action is powered by human interaction with the market and just as humans are not perfect the market is not perfect either. Despite how and where the trend line is drawn on the USDCAD it is unarguable that buyers come into the market every time price actions come around the area marked off by the two trend lines and the green diagonal horizontal drawn on my chart. As this morning's data caused a decent sell of on this pair and price action approached this trend line zone buyers swooped into the market to try to respect it. Throughout the day price action will give us confirmation if it wants to respect this trend line zone and potentially swing up to at least previous structure highs, but potentially even higher forming a new structure high as up-trending markets usually do. Please note the following rules below for entry: The trend line zone holding as support Continued momentum to the upside Enter on bullish momentum breaking out above the 1.32600 level Profit whatever you can get, but the previous structure high marked off by the red rectangle could be a good target Stops at around 1.31700 This trade will lose its potential if first rule becomes no longer applicable. For example if more bearish momentum enters into the market and we see price action move substantially below the trending zone. You will find that my style of trading often holds a greater risk than reward, however the potential of price action moving in the favor of my position where profit can be liquidated and banked before price action moves against me is very high when the rules are followed. If you find yourself liking my style of trading please feel free to follow me as I will post potential trades like this rather frequently.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn261897
4
S&P 500 Long-Term Momentum Tactical ModelThis S&P 500 timing model is comprised of 2 components: 1) A 10-period (50 days) Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 40-period (200 days) EMA are plotted on the weekly chart of the S&P 500. When EMA10 crosses from above to below EMA40, a sell signal is generated. When EMA10 crosses from below to above EMA40, a buy signal is generated. 2) A 10-period (50 days) Relative Strength Index (RSI) is plotted on the weekly chart of the S&P 500. Then, a 40-period (200 days) moving average (MA) of the RSI is plotted. When the MA crosses from below to above 50, a buy signal is generated, indicating that the market has entered the accumulation phase (bull market). When the MA crosses from above to below 50, a sell signal is generated, indicating that the market has entered the distribution phase (bear market). For simplicity, I've hidden the RSI and only the MA is shown. IMPORTANT: The model requires 2 sell signals from both components to exit an existing long position but it only requires 1 buy signal from either component to initiate an existing long position. When an existing long position is exited, the model goes to cash until it re-initiates a new long position. As you can see, the model right now is super close to exiting its current long position that was initiated back in December 2011; I'm expecting this to happen next week. My model is extremely accurate in predicting major crashes and bear markets, such as the 2000 Tech Bubble and 2008 Financial Crisis. However, minor market corrections like the one 2011 could generate fake-out signals and fool the model into thinking that a major crash/bear market is coming when in reality, the market quickly rebounded following the short correction. The strength of the model lies in its ability to predict and avoid major crashes/bear markets, not small corrections. Additionally, the model cannot predict flash crashes (i.e., 1987). Backtest results from 1970 to present day shows that this model would have outperformed the S&P 500: 8.06% vs. 7.14% CAGR (trading costs and dividends excluded). Below is a link to the backtest spreadsheet: docs.google.com P.S. - I don't know how to code in Pine (yet) so could someone please code this model with the Strategy Tester for me? I would GREATLY appreciate it :) thanks! ------------------------------------------------------------------------ EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGES' SETTINGS - 1st EMA's length = 10 weeks (50 days) - 2nd EMA's length = 40 weeks (200 days) RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX'S SETTINGS - Look-back period = 10 weeks (50 days) - Moving average's length = 40 weeks (200 days) MODEL'S RULES Only initiate a new long position when ANY of the following conditions are met: - MA40(RSI10) > 50 - EMA10 > EMA40 Only exit an existing long position when ALL following conditions are met: - MA40(RSI10) < 50 - EMA10 < EMA40
FX:SPX500
by Stable_Camel
Sell GE: Wolfe Wave & Bearish Crab - Perfect Confluence!GE has completed a bearish crab pattern in the optimal sell zone for a short Wolfe Wave trade. There is significant bearish divergence in addition to an overbought RSI which add to the bias toward the short side. Two missed weekly pivots sit below price as well, which may help drag the price down. Stop loss can be placed above a significant S/R level while maintaining a substantial R/R. The higher probability target is the .382 retracement of the xa leg at 25.24, but a more aggressive trader may chose to target the 1-4 target line. Confluence in the PRZ: 1. 1.618 extension of XA (bearish crab pattern completion) 2. 1.786ab=cd 3. 1.618ab=cd 4. .886 XA 5. 2bc projection 6. Overbought RSI 7. Bearish divergence Follow me for more updates and trade ideas!
NYSE:GEShort
by glennmercer
COPPER Long Term Buying OpportunityThis trade technically constitutes as calling a bottom (which I don't particularly like to do), although I have a few good reasons why I'll be taking this long trade. First and foremost, Copper is currently tuning away from the bottom of it's long term curved downtrend channel. Secondly, last week's candle was a fairly large hammer. Thirdly, Squeeze momentum is as oversold as it's ever been. The final reason is that over time, Copper has consistently gone through fairly rigid periods of increase and decrease. These periods range from about 100-150 days. Copper is nearing the end of it's current period of decline. A combination of reasons I have listed above describe why I will be long in Copper until approximately January 2016. Leave your thoughts, comments and a like if this was helpful in any way to you. Happy Trading!
FX:COPPERLong
by IceTrading
5
Stocks update: Symantec bullish ahead of earningsSymantec (SYMC) is scheduled to report earnings on Aug 11, after market close. The EPS consensus is 43 cents per share vs. 45 year ago. A number of bullish candlestick patterns have emerged lately: Morning Star, Piercing Line and break-away gap. They suggest there is a Double Bottom formation in place, which may lead to higher prices (24,72 and 24,68). Upside potential exceeds 5%. Symantec Corporation is a security, backup and availability solutions. The Company’s products and services protect people and information in any digital environment from the smallest mobile device, to the enterprise data center, to cloud-based systems. The stock is down 10% YTD. It has P/E of 18.02 and forward P/E of 11.26.
S
by Nickonomics
GBP/JPY DOUBLE TOP FORMING ON 1HR TIME FRAME?GBP/JPY IS APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE AT 194.59, OFFERING A LOW RISK SHORT TRADE AS A DOUBLE TOP MAY POTENTIALLY FORM. PRICE ACTION PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED THE 194.59 LEVEL WAS PROTECTED BY SELLERS, A REJECTION OF R1 AGAIN EXPOSES THE DOWNSIDE OF 190.97 (S1) - A BREAK OF THE SHORT TERM TRENDLINE THAT HAS FORMED WOULD ADD EXTRA CONFIRMATION OF FURTHER SELLING. S1 OFFERS A GOOD PROFIT TAKING AREA AS IT IS THE 0.382 RETRACE OF THE ORIGINAL 185.00 (S3) SWING LOW AND THE 194.50 SWING HIGH (R1), A BREAK OF THIS LEVEL WOULD EXPOSE 189.20's. THE 150 DAY MA HAS BEEN ACTING AS SHORT TERM SUPPORT FOR THE PAIR, A BREAK OF THE 150 MA, AND A CROSSOVER OF THE MA'S WOULD ADD FURTHER CONFIRMATION OF SHORT TERM SELLING. CURRENTLY THE SHORT TERM 16 DAY MA IS POINTING TO THE DOWNSIDE. ORDERS ARE BEST PLACED JUST BELOW R1 AT 194.41, IF PRICE REVERSES PRIOR TO THIS LEVEL ENTRIES CAN BE MOVED TO THE AREA OF THE TRENDLINE BREAK - STOPS CAN REMAIN ABOVE R1. SAFE TRADING.
Short
by JoeNeilCarey
Long SHAK on Strong Divergence and TL Break at S/R ZoneAn hourly close above the 7-week-long bearish trendline provides a great opportunity to go long SHAK, which has made a strong bullish move at its daily support zone. With low float, high volume, and an appearance on Friday's Top Gainers for many popular signal services, there is a high probability of more bullish movement in the upcoming weeks. Enter on any short-term pullbacks. Minor resistance area below the unhit monthly pivot for July provides a nice target. SL should be placed below daily support area.
NYSE:SHAKLong
by glennmercer
AUD/JPY BEARISH GARTLEY PLUS DOUBLE TOP OFF 0.382 RETRACE POTENTIAL COMPLETION OF XABCD PATTERN ON AUD/JPY, WITH THE COMPLETION LEG FINISHING ON THE 0.382 RETRACE OF LONG TERM SWING HIGH/SWING LOW. A BEARISH REVERSAL CANDLE ON 30M TIME FRAME MAY ADD TO FURTHER CONFIRMATION OF SHORT TERM SELLING, WITH THE 91.30 HANDLE ACTING AS STRONG STRUCTURE RESISTANCE. DAILY SUPPORT ACTS AS A NICE POTENTIAL PROFIT TAKING AREA, SHORT TERM SELLING CANNOT BE RULED OUT - RSI PIERCING THE OVERBOUGHT MEDIAN LINE ADDS FURTHER CONFIRMATION.
Short
by JoeNeilCarey
3
USD/CAD BREAKS DAILY RANGE - POTENTIAL LOW RISK TRADEA DAILY CLOSE ABOVE RANGE RESISTANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FURTHER UPSIDE, A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF LONG TERM RANGE EXPOSES 1.2520's THE 150 DAY MA THAT WAS PREVIOUS RESISTANCE ON 4H CHART HAS BEEN BROKEN, A POTENTIAL MA CROSSOVER TO THE UPSIDE CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER - ADDING TO FURTHER CONFIRMATION OF UPSIDE POTENTIAL A RETEST OF PREVIOUS RESISTANCE TURNED SUPPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, A HOLD OF THIS LEVEL WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT - LITTLE RESISTANCE LIES AHEAD OF THE DOLLAR AND FOLLOWS THE LONG TERM BULL TREND OF THE PAIR
Long
by JoeNeilCarey
EURAUD Trending into Supply ZoneEURAUD received a big boost as the Aussie dollar practically cratered. The mild pullback in the dollar, along with optimism over the Greece turmoil, has boost the euro from it's intraday lows. Momentum on the intraday chart is looking to putter out. A 70 pip move is rather small for this pair, but see it as a reasonable pullback - but price action could continue north on the break of the supply zone. A close above this level would also correspond to price extension above the 200-daily EMA (Bullish). Initially, if EURAUD closes above the zone, upside target lies at 1.4385 and 1.4435. However, a pullback to 1.4235 is probable.
by CommoditiesTrader
EUR/JPY short target in sight - close of 4H candle criticalUPDATE FROM YESTERDAYS TRADE: After the sell off this morning EUR/JPY is re testing its 4h trend line which came into play yesterday, fresh lows of 133.90 but failure to close at these levels show potential further downside to my target of 133.50. RSI is still holding its downwards trend, plus Ichimoku shows that we've had a cloud crossover as well as a TK crossover - both of which are pointing to further downside. Saying that I am skeptical about this signal as the Chickou-span still stays within price as well as being within the previous cloud (giving me the impression that price could potentially hold in this area), a clear close below the 4h trend line and a continuation of RSI/MACD showing further downside will encourage me that my target is still within range. A break into oversold territory will add further momentum to the downwards move, the close of this latest 4h candle will be critical again.
Short
by JoeNeilCarey
PBR: 7 Year Bear Run Over?How do you not like a stock that doubles in a little over a month? PBR killed it on their last earnings report and it has been on fire ever since (with the help of the energy market). Pull up a monthly chart on this stock and you can see their is a lot of momentum behind this move. I suspect this rally to last another 2-5 months at least. Expect a strong trending market to continue to form. I marked out the current main support trendline from the lows in march. Intermediate target right now I have set at the .387 retrace of $11 and .5 retrace of $13. I can easily see PBR rallying pass these targets as they reported higher YoY revenue, net income, and cashflow. Intermediate support is seen at 9.50-9.40, 9, and main support at 8.50. Expect momentum to continue as long as price remains above 8.50 Have a chart you want me to analyze? Comment below!
NYSE:PBRLong
by Ape
8
NFLX Losing MomentumAfter gapping up on good news NFLX put in a shooting star on increased volume. The MACD cross over and inability to put in a new high despite consolidating inside the Bollinger Bands could be a sign that all the buyers are in and there is a possible pullback coming. A break of the upper resistance line would be a no trade for me due to the previous reasons. Possible short trades could be an entry when the RSI breaks 70 (if you are a more indicator based trader) or the break of the key support at ~552. However, the last time NFLX had a large gap up and the MACD indicator showed slowing momentum it actually put in new highs before finally (and slowly) rolling over. Any feedback and constructive criticism is welcome. UPDATE - NFLX never broke the trigger point and breached resistance. No trade.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by chasel1