Momentum Indicator (MOM)
ACRX- 9 on the horizonContinuing coverage of ACRX this week, we saw ACRX pullback with the market as a whole early this morning. ACRX broke right through support at the .236 retrace, but found support at yesterdays congested zone at the .382 retrace. Uptrend remains in place. $9 remains 1st target. Stop now at 7.70.
ACRX- Strong Momentum ACRX traded for an 8.5% gain today. With above volume for the day, and a strong close we can see momentum carry through into tomorrow. Look for price to hold above 7.90 to continue its' run to $9.
HAL Back to $70Bullish Piercing Candle at support on above average volume at channel support with momentum divergence. We had a higher low recorded on the MACD histogram as well. I am looking for HAL to retest its next resistance level at $70. With stop losses below the low of Friday the trade gives you a 1.5R.
FCX at Support w/ Momentum DivergenceVolume Spike on Friday at support brought a pin bar like candle on extremely noticeable momentum divergence. I would look to get long at the closing price of Friday; however, the more conservative trade would be to wait for a break of Friday's high or even a close above that price. I would look for a retest of the first major resistance level around $37 - profit target put just in front of that level. There should be some resistance seen at $36 as well which would be a good level to raise stops to break even.
Goldman Sachs Short - Overbought Momentum LossGoldman Sachs is a short to me here on the daily for a quick short. I'll disclose now that on the Weekly chart I am long based on the giant indented head and shoulders and the smaller head and shoulders that makes up the right shoulder. That is in my IRA however, as I do not purchase stock (writing covered calls) in my trading account simply because it ties up too much capital (usually).
The weekly outlook aside, I like what we see for a potential brief pullback here. Working from the top down, RSI is approaching it's previous two time resistance around 74, indicating to me that the stock is overbought. Both of these prior occurrences happened in the current trend.
Secondly, we have a shooting star after a two week up move, now followed by what looks like it will be a Harami. GS does not have a historical pattern of breaking out above the BB, even after a slight contraction in volatility. When it has, it's usually a quick retracement.
The one thing I do not like here is that OBV usually leads price and it has now crossed above it's 21WMA. Last time this happened it led a leg up. This time, however, over 50% of the move has already happened and it's just crossing positive, so perhaps it's not much to worry about.
IV%R is low in GS, at only 12% so that leaves the possibility of selling anything for a credit out of the books. That means I'm looking for a Long Put Spread basically. A diagonal wouldn't do because diagonals usually require some time passage, and this should be quick. Although I may keep an eye on the diagonal just to see how it would pan out. This low volatility market is no fun, and leaves my option strategies severely limited. Hopefully we will find some nice charts with higher volatility sometime tomorrow that we can enter some strangles and naked calls/puts with.
WFC Rejected at Trend LineWFC bouncing off trend line yesterday and today again to form a shooting star. There is some hidden bearish momentum divergence seen on the histogram, and the stochastic is coming out of overbought levels without price having broken the previous swing point high. This does look like a bull flag forming, but I am looking for one more move down to retest support before the next move up. Profit target right in front of support for a healthy 1:1.5 R/R ratio.
MRK Tight Consolidation Break - Long/Short (SAR)As I point out in the chart, MRK is in a very tight consolidation here. With the RSI holding inside of bullish territory after it's recent bounce off the 150EMA it has run into previous resistance. This resistance coincides with a sort of ascending triangle based on the higher-lows it has been making since March '14. This pattern comes to us after a long run up from Nov '13, leading me to have a bias for this play to the upside.
The goal here is to watch it intraday and get long one tick above the most recent bar high ($59.37). Alternatively, we will get short intraday at one tick below the most recent bar low ($58.89) and holding it short expecting a bounce off of the resistance.
The idea is to SAR (Stop & Reverse) the position on a close one tick above/below the same high/low, depending on how we entered.
This means we have $0.77 cents of risk either direction. With a target on the downside around $56.30 and to the upside $64.75 by conservative estimates, that gives us a favorable risk reward. All said and done, the thinking here is that with this tight consolidation at a key level, a big decision will be made here in the coming days, that will make a big play for us. What happens after these candles could be the deciding factor, and we may even see a candle that reinforces one direction over the other to help us in our decision.
Hanging Man for ACTACT testing previous resistance, and this time it is coming on hardly any volume in relation to its daily average. The most recent decline had noticeable volume to go with it, and there seems to be nothing behind the ascent to keep price pushing any higher from here. With hanging man patterns - I look for a sell stop 1 penny below the low of the day and go for a straight 1 to 1 Risk/Reward given the high success rate but also realizing this is a counter trend trade. Stop loss 1 penny above the high of the day.
JCP - Riding the Bull to mid $11 Another beautiful little Fib setup. if you measure the distance of AB, that distance will equal what I drew as CD. This is what you are looking for. The level here at D ($11.30-$11.40) is also the 50% rertracement from the drop at the end of last year.
I always like to use the 1.618 extension, however, JCP retraced to the 50% level (not the 38.2% level) in this case.
VZ Riding SupportVZ has come to trade in a nice little squeeze of a channel here for the past week. This support level also happens to be the .618 of the bigger picture leg. Momentum continues to see higher lows which should lead to this level holding up and a retest to the next resistance level.
CVX Long EntryBullish momentum divergence occurring at a major support level for CVX which also happens to be hitting the 100 SMA. A couple of candles of indecision make it look like CVX could be prime for a climb to its newly formed resistance level.
SP500 still got legsIt's always difficult to call a top in uncharted territory or see how long the trend will hold.
The S&P index has been in a beautiful trend for quite sometime now and, as with any trend, new entrants may become increasingly more anxious of getting in too late.
From the very simple analysis here, it looks like the index has some way to go before one needs to prudent and contemplate exiting the positions.
Here we have weekly chart that is making all time highs. The fib extension from last peak to trough suggest 2100 as the next major level and the rally doesn't look too overbought from CCI. The vol is low (The reasons for low vols are well documented and that's a topic for another discussion).
As such, it is to early to be worried about booking profits or even contemplating whether it's too late to enter.
The music is still playing
Coal is what really powers a plug in electric Hybrid car...Arch Coal based nicely from July 2013 to April 2014 and then pulled back 30%... I think it's almost time for a long black train to comeback into the station. If natural gas has any price or supply issues this winter coal will roar back. It's that time of year to start thinking about winter which is a few months away. Coal is still hated but needed and will not go away for a very very long time....Reality is COAL is what turns on the lights, cools and heats our homes and charges those plug in Hybrid cars ....GL
SWN is about to get see some energy. SWN bounced off support the past 2 days coming of a 'double bottom' Bat Pattern at major support which happens to also be precisely at the .618 retracement of the larger leg which is very visible on the weekly chart. This is all coupled with some very sizeable momentum divergence from the 'B' Leg swing point to where price has currently found some stabilization. There was above average volume on the support level touch which created a reversal candle. I am looking for a retest of the 'B' Point of the identified Bat Pattern.
And yes. I am terrible at catching my 'Title' errors before it's too late. Sigh.
Bitcoin Price and On Balance Volume (OBV)While it is well and good to create charts, monitor indicators and attempt to discern the direction of the Bitcoin price, it is easy to get buried in complexity and blinded by bias. That is why the On Balance Volume (OBV) is so valuable.
You can read more about it by following the link below:
www.investopedia.com
Essentially OBV allows you to eliminate a lot of the noise from day to day volume movement and get a clear idea which direction it is headed in. Price and volume are highly correlated as you can see by looking at the chart.
On the OBV, I have added a horizontal black line where OBV has clearly pivoted recently. OBV isn't going to help much in determining price so much as price momentum. Prices below the horizontal line tend to be lower (but aren't always) than the prices below the line. This is relative. For instance, you shouldn't apply this months back. You use it to look at more recent price action not to compare today to several months ago.
You'll notice that OBV is below the horizontal line and has not moved dramatically lower. This helps explain the recent flat Bitcoin price.
The OBV should also help - in conjunction with other patterns and indicators - when to buy or sell Bitcoin. For instance, it may not be a great time to go long Bitcoin since the direction of price isn't clear. Should the volume continue to decline, then price will likely decline with it.
BA likes to Swim for Recreation but curretly needs Air.Ignore the MA Death Crossover that BA underwent just recently. BA at this very appealing support level should become a necessity to buy up for any fund holding it. There has been some noticeable bullish momentum divergence to boot and a look to the 4hr chart indicates that we should see a little pop in the coming days to keep us out of danger. Look for a retest of 130. This should provide a nice 1:2 R/R opportunity for most.
Also, wish I could edit title to correctly spell 'currently'..
8/22/14: due to the hanging man yesterday and the solid run up thus far: I'd raise any stops to under yesterday's low.
SCTY looks ready for move higherSolarCity poked its head off consolidation and looks ready to amke move higher. Overall, stock gained 400% since it became public.
This has largely been driven by its attractive business model, which has allowed it to grow its customer base at a feverish pace. Unlike other installers who require customers to make upfront cash payments, SolarCity foots all the installation costs upfront and then leases the solar system back to the home or business on whose roof it sits.
After it found top at $88, then it was sold off very hardly (lost almost half of its value) and found at $46 -$48. After it broke up descending chanel, it caught momentum buying. Controlled pullback and resuming of buying - that is what we have. Combine it with strong overall markets and that is how you get high probability tardes. Holding above $66.50 could keep its momentum intact for potential move to $74-$76 (previoous high and trend line). Manage this position according to your timeframe and risk management rules. For swing traders, if it will go below $62.50, then it makes this idea invalid. For more active traders, use short term moving averages to judge price action.
Pulling strongly AUDUSD to the downside - Longterm MomentumMomentum is trending down and the market broke to the up side (momentum was against it but there was a wedge), later it broke down in harmony with momentum, momentum has been trending down. It look like AUDUSD is moving down, and there is a chance that it will move quickly in 'harmonic move' fashion. There are many ways how to play this out and some of theme can bee seen in the screenshoot. Some bearish candles would be a good confirmation (like-hammer-bearish candle).
To enter I'll look for Fibonacci and structure confluence.
More aggressive traders could short around 0.9365.
EURCHF DownTrend Deep Pullback SHORT1. moving averages are 20,50,100,200 and the 200 period MA is above all, 100, is above all except 200. 50 period MA is higher than 20 period Moving Average. Along with Lower Lows and Lower Highs in a downtrend this says the pair -EUR/CHF has been in a down trend.
2. Stochastics are oversold and losing momentum.
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EUR/USD Channeling up to previous High, Resistance & Fib. levelBased On: Structure, Fibonacci levels, Channel, Stochastics, RSI, Momentum..
IF EUR/USD Reaches 1.3648. Economic Calendar events will effect this heavily, i am looking forward to a volatile day (TODAY:EUR Interest Rate, Decision, ECB Press Conference, US Nonfarm Payrolls, US Unemployment Rate, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ) If these events will be positive for EUR and Negative for Dollar, this could be a fast move (1day).
Then ==> I will Buy EUR/USD, I may however buy it at a slightly higher price as the price action up has already strated, but it would be safer to wait till the price drops and then but, it could also not happen.
(IF EUR/USD will go up very slowly THEN i will take some profits of early)
IF Today's big economic calendar events goes in conflict with a move up THEN ==> i will close my position and possibly open it again if an opportunity presents itself.
Thoughts & Why's
UP SIDE
There is a clear channel that is going up and is likely to continue.
Stochastics RSI is Oversold at 11 (11.4)
Momentum is gaining
Strong structure (6-8 points)
US Dollar INDEX (DXY) look's like a sell along with USD/CHF ( ) so EUR/USD should go up as dollar weakens.
There is also a double bottom, which is also a medium sign that EUR/USD is going to go up in short term.
DOWN SIDE
1. Major Fibonacci Level 0.382
2. Structure (Confluence with Fib Level 0.382)
A major 0.382 Fibonacci level at 1.3689 that and structure right there as well.
When Fib Level 0.382 (EUR/USD=1.3689) a retracement will probably take place if Dollar index goes down.
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EURUSD heading to the next resistancePair formed its bottom around 1.35200 and broke up resistance at 1.35800. Above that traders accepted new prices and after break up of tight consolidation it accelerated to upside and topped at 1.36400. After such a big nove in short time it took some time to absorb this price action and it have built series of higher highs and lower lows - indecision pattern (wedge) that was resolved to upside. If you baught near bottom of this wedge then you can add here. I want to see how buyers will hold 1.36123 previous high which now should act like support. I will measure strength with 8/21 EMAs. My intermidiateTARGET is 1.36328, the resistance zone around 1.36400. I dont want it to see below 1.36100 (1/2 of recent up move) if buyers want to keep control.
Short Term SilverBull flag from the recent run up... Let's see... Long on the physical stuff, charting the forex.
