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Momentum Indicator (MOM)

ETHUSD Perspective And Levels:320 Break Will Confirm Lower High.ETHUSD update: There is a minor higher low at 320 but the current price failure renders it insignificant because the high of this bullish swing has peaked just under the 346 to 367 resistance zone. Plus the ETHBTC price action has failed below its corresponding resistance. I interpret these signs to mean near term bearish momentum is more likely. First let me say that in the long term, I am bullish on this market which means as a buy and hold, it is a good idea. If that is your goal then the most value that you will get from my analysis is when to add to your position. And for those with very limited knowledge of trading, my analysis is short term and best used for day trading or swing trading strategies which focus on near term fluctuations. My evaluation is an interpretation of the clues that price action offers and the goal is to estimate the PROBABILITIES of what price action is more likely to do next in the short term. It is not about being "right", it is about "listening" to the market and ADJUSTING when it provides new information. I feel the need to write this because it appears there are some in this community who still have a very limited understanding of the inner workings of financial markets and the value of technical analysis. I welcome criticism, but if you cannot provide a detailed analysis and explain the reasoning behind your perspective to the community, then you are not providing any value to those who are trying to educate themselves further so please be considerate. On that note, let's talk about the current price situation. There is a minor higher low at the 320 level and now a failed high at 340 on this time frame. This is bearish because higher lows often lead to higher highs, NOT failed highs. This coupled with the fact that the recent bullish swing has peaked just under the 346 to 367 resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing) also adds to the argument that this market is more likely forming a lower high compared to the 392 level. If price breaks below 320, this market is more likely to see the 309 support, and possibly the 292 to 281 area as well because lower highs often lead to lower prices. It is even possible to still see a retest of the 260 area. Upon a retest of any of these supports IF price stabilizes, it will likely be building a broad higher low which would offer an attractive swing trade opportunity to get long. If I see that scenario unfolding I will evaluate the risk at that time. What also adds to the retest argument is the fact that ETHBTC is not supportive at all. Just like it signaled the price failure of this market days BEFORE the China news. Keep in mind I am not going to make decisions based on this alone, but I would like to see more supportive price action from this pair if I was looking to take a new position. Keep in mind, if price some how finds the strength to push above 340, that would be a bullish breakout. The reason why I will not take that trade is because the 346 resistance is just above and not worth the risk. It would need a strong catalyst to catapult it through that resistance zone so I prefer to wait for a more attractive support level and I am willing to miss it if the retrace that I am waiting for never unfolds. Managing risk is more important so I prefer to wait until the environment is more favorable. In summary, this market still maintains its long term bullish structure. It is just that price is lacking the bullish momentum that many are hoping for. Upon a retest of the supports mentioned earlier, if they can show stability (like a reversal pattern or bullish candle formation), that would establish a larger degree higher low which would then open the door to a retest of the 346 to 367 resistance zone. And a break of that will likely take this market to a new high. It just doesn't have the structure in place at the moment, so I define the scenario I would like to see and then I wait for more clues. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
27
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Lower High Limitations.ETHUSD Update: 320 resistance is taken out which indicates stability returning to this market for the moment. My plan now is to wait for the next higher low, and I would like to see it somewhere near the 309 support area. That is the first level that I will look for reversal patterns for a possible long entry. The 320 level was the .382 of the recent bearish swing and since price has taken it out without any hesitation, I interpret that as changing momentum. This does not mean I just jump in and buy. I never said 320 was a long trigger, it is just one piece of the puzzle that needs to fit before I can evaluate a long swing trade position. Now that 320 is broken, I am watching two support areas for a pull back and bullish reversal. The 309 level which is now the .382 of the current bullish swing and 292 to 281 area which is related to the .618 of the current bullish swing. Keep in mind the 296 level is still in play as well. The new resistance area is the 346 to 367 zone which is related to the .618 of the bearish swing. This area will serve as a target if I manage to get long in the low 300s or 290s. The bearish momentum may have dried up but the current price level is not a place to get long. In fact, if you take a look at my analysis on ETHBTC, the price is struggling at the corresponding resistance level that I wrote about in my previous report. This lack of follow through on ETHBTC is the same kind of price action that occurred before the market sold off. This emphasizes ever more the importance of the market proving itself by presenting a broader higher low off of one of the supports I just mentioned. If a more shallow higher low unfolds instead, I will consider it with a smaller position possibly. If anything, the peak of the current bullish move appears to be a lower high and it is slowing just under the .618 resistance zone. That is why risk is high for longs at these levels and if some unexpected bearish catalyst scares this market, price has more of a chance to revisit the 292 to 281 area or even the 250s. Buying near the lows of this move is great, but reasonable expectations are in order. Until the new resistance zone is cleared, we are more likely to see a range bound market in the near term, especially if ETHBTC cannot break the resistance that it is facing at the moment. In summary, the bearish momentum has run out of steam as proven by the 320 resistance break, but this market is not out of the clear. In order to prove that big picture strength is back and new highs are reasonable, price action will have to build a higher low formation within one of the support areas mentioned. IF price forms a lower high and pushes below the 309 support, then that would again confirm bearish momentum which can take price to the larger degree supports. The reason why I want to see a higher low is because that will remove the significance of the any bearish structures since higher lows often lead to higher highs especially in an overall bullish market. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
42
ETHBTC Perspective And Levels: Bearish Momentum And Supports.ETHBTC Update: As these two markets retrace timing a new long position in ETHUSD is not easy because there will be many false starts and a ton of noise. To help filter out the noise, an evaluation of this pair provides clues and a much clearer picture as far as when to expect a more supportive environment. A couple of traders have recently brought this pair to my attention along with ETC because they have been valuable in providing more clues about the ETHUSD price action. And it makes sense because many investors who are in ETH, have bought into it with BTC. And looking at this chart after the recent pull back in ETHUSD, it appears this market offered many hints that the upside was very limited when ETHUSD was pushing the 390 area and as one trader said, "Everyone was painting rockets." (That is hilarious and so true). So after evaluating this pair further, there are levels on this chart that can signal when consistent buying returns to the ETHUSD market and can help form more reasonable expectations, and not "rockets". First let's begin with the broad Elliott Wave perspective and what it means for the long term. Clearly we are in a Wave 2 and these are corrective waves that often unfold as some form of triangle or range bound market. The good news is that when Wave 3 unfolds on this degree, it implies that ETH has the potential to reach targets like 460 and into the 500s. The not so good news is that it has quite a few resistance levels that must be compromised along the way before ETH has that kind of potential and at the rate ETHBTC is moving at the moment, this can take weeks or months, especially in light of the current bearish momentum. So in order to signal that consistent buying is back in the ETH market, this pair needs to break the .07356 minor resistance which is the .382 of the current bearish swing. Until that happens, do not expect much on the upside anytime soon. No rockets here, more like rocks. That would prove bullish momentum is returning, but after that it needs to take out the .07783 to .08092 resistance zone followed by the .08306 to .08781 resistance which is where it peaked (and established a lower high) when ETHUSD was in the 390s. Both of these zones are .618 areas of the recent bearish swings and serve as good reference points to help evaluate the upside potential of ETHUSD. In light of these levels, current price momentum is still bearish and is more likely to test supports before stabilizing. The first level is the .06598 which is a triple bottom but because of the lower high established at .08482, price is more likely to break this support and retest the .06248 to .03894 area which is relative to the .618 of the previous bullish structure. This kind of price action is typical of a Wave 2 because remember the rule is Wave 2 does not retrace more than 100% of Wave 1. In summary, this pair is still generally bullish on the big picture and offers plenty of opportunity to buy into just not right now. If you are day trading, there will be many opportunities long and short in the ETHUSD pair as ETHBTC fluctuates between these support and resistance levels but if you are trying to position for a longer time horizon, this chart clearly shows now is not the right time. Price action indicates more bearish signs and until a resistance is taken out, you are better off waiting if you are looking to establish a new long position or add to a core position. It is a lot less stressful to build positions in short term bullish momentum than bearish, even though you may not get the "best" prices, you get to sleep better at night. As a swing trader I will be observing this chart to help guide my decisions in the ETHUSD market. And thanks again to the traders who brought this chart to my attention. Comments and questions welcome. Again I want to thank the Tradingview community for your support and loyalty, as of today I have over 2k followers. I am very happy to know my analysis is helpful to everyone.
by MarcPMarkets
24
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: When To Buy?ETHUSD Update: 296 support broken, and no signs of reversal. If price cannot stabilize and continues into the next support areas, that will signal this market is more likely to consolidate rather than reach new highs any time soon. The 296 support is the .382 of the entire recent bullish structure. I wrote in my previous report that this level was more likely to be revisited in light of the Shooting Star like pattern on the weekly time frame. The fact that the low was taken out means bearish momentum is in effect and will continue until the market can show a significant sign of reversal. An example would be a Hammer or any variation of a pin bar with a long wick on the bottom on the weekly time frame. The next support zone is the 233 to 196 area which is the .618 of the recent bullish structure. If this zone is reached, it indicates that this market is fluctuating within a broad Wave 2 consolidation (see weekly chart). This scenario will require closer attention to shorter term targets until the market breaks out on the bigger picture. The other support level worth noting is the 260 area which is an old resistance (inversion) and high of Wave 1 of the current bullish structure. Keep in mind, these levels are reference points to evaluate for reversal patterns and stability, not to place blind entry orders. Also remember it is better to buy when the momentum reverses rather than buy cheap because without momentum on your side, price is likely to get cheaper. Bottom and top fishing are very expensive efforts as many of you will learn the hard way. With that being said, in order for this market to prove that buyers are firmly in control, the newly formed 320 resistance area must be taken out. This is the .382 of the current bearish swing. As price goes lower, this level will adjust as well. So there are a couple of ways you can play this. You can start buying small into the weakness and take the pain until price eventually stabilizes and begins to build bullish momentum. Or you can let the impulsive market crowd deal with the stress and uncertainty and let their order flow develop into a supportive price structure that signals higher prices. Waiting for the second scenario means you will not get the best prices, but you will also not have to deal with the pain. It's is up to you. I am waiting for price stability. At the moment there is no sign of that and I don't mind not catching the bottom. I want price structure to be supportive, and I want to be able to clearly define my risk based on the structure and until the market let's me accomplish that, I just sit this out and wait. In summary, the weekly Shooting Star trigger offered insight into the current selling momentum. The 260, 233 and 196 areas are the next levels to observe for any supportive price action along with a reversal. As a swing trader, I look to buy weakness and sell strength and there is plenty of weakness now. It is just a matter of waiting for stability to appear and then evaluate the risk at that point. And this does not mean I will get the lowest price, it means I will get in when the market favors bullish momentum. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
63
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: More Selling Momentum.ETHUSD Update: Price retraces off of the 326 support up to the new 370 resistance level only to turn back and revisit 326. Great day trading price action, but not very appealing if you are considering longer time horizon strategies like swing trading. This bearish momentum points to the 296 level as the next support to test. I mentioned the 326 to 305 zone that price retraced nicely off of, and ran almost 50 points within hours. If you are day trading this market which I am not, there is a lot of opportunity in movements like that, but if you are trying to buy into this and do not plan to take profit within the day trading time frame, then you need to be prepared for some pain. And here is why: Tonight is the close of the current weekly candle. It has a long wick on top, and this is known as a Shooting Star which is a bearish reversal pattern. It is especially bearish in this context since it carries the weight of the weekly time frame and is appearing near a major resistance area. Once the low of this candle is taken out, bearish moment is more likely to follow and it can persist for at least a week. This does not mean this market is in a bearish trend. Trend and momentum are two different things. It means that the current retrace has more room to test lower levels. If I am going to buy into a reversal pattern, I prefer to buy when the bearish momentum is more than likely running out of steam. In order for me to consider this market bearish on the big picture, 208 would have to be taken out and we are no where near that. So in this scenario, I am waiting to see if this market can test the 296 support which is the .382 of the major bullish structure. Even though a double bottom reversal may be forming at the 326 level, the weekly Shooting Star carries more weight. Also any bullish retrace from here will now have to contend with the newly formed 368 to 380 resistance zone which is related to the .618 of the recent bear swing. This zone is a good reference area for short term targets. Keep in mind, the way I am evaluating this market and choosing to trade it is not the only way. Some traders prefer to start buying small amounts early and build a core position to insure that they do not miss the next bullish move. There is nothing wrong with this as long as you know how to manage risk and not get too big too fast. If you have limited experience, this is not a good idea because inappropriate sizing will most likely force you out at the bottom. In summary, buying into a pullback too early is common and I always look for signs that indicate the potential of the retrace. This retrace still has bearish potential as highlighted by the Shooting Star formation that will be official at the close of the weekly candle. With this perspective I look to the 296 level as offering a more attractive area to start buying back into this overall bullish market. IF 296 is reached, I will be looking for reversal patterns, if instead it is broken, I will reevaluate the price action and adjust from there. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
39
USDJPY / M1 : Longterm pleads for a bull trend reversalThe analysis shows off that the long term bear trend of USDJPY 0.07% may have come to an end on this bottom and the reversal time is now triggering. We may have finished the first wave impulse of this new bullish trend . So we are now retracing to find point 'b'. This subwave is in-trend and can be bought with low risk. Of course as we're consolidating... wave 'b' can be sold in counter trend. Which means that buyers need to exit under resistance and can't hold their trades too long... This analysis suggests that in order to hold longs for long term, this would need to wait for subwave 'c' to be reached. Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'm pretty new to TradingView so I'ld appreciate any like/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;) You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
by PRO_Indicators
USDJPY / M1 : Longterm pleads for a bull trend reversalThe analysis shows off that the long term bear trend of USDJPY may have come to an end on this bottom and the reversal time is now triggering. We may have finished the first wave impulse of this new bullish trend. So we are now retracing to find point 'b'. This subwave is in-trend and can be bought with low risk. Of course as we're consolidating... wave 'b' can be sold in counter trend. Which means that buyers need to exit under resistance and can't hold their trades too long... This analysis suggests that in order to hold longs for long term, this would need to wait for subwave 'c' to be reached. Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'm pretty new to TradingView so I'ld appreciate any like/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;) You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
by PRO_Indicators
DAX / H2-m15-m2 : Multi Timeframe Intraday AnalysisThis study shows what are my projections for the german index. Still to early too jump into short but certainly not buying anything here as we have a nice reversal on top of the H2 timeframe. Price are probably just pulling back to form Elliott wave 2 point and head to the big wave 3 that should be the extended wave of the bear impulse that I expect the prices to show later. In ploted on this chart the theoric targets I'm looking forward to sell the index again with low risk entries.
FX:GER30Short
by PRO_Indicators
GOLD / D1-W1-M1 : MultiTimeFrame Analysis with Elliott+SinewaveTook me quite some time to build this up but the result shows a very clean sceanrio here ! Everything tends to correspond between each different timeframe and so the forecast is even more likely to occur. It shows that on the biggest timeframe, gold has made it's 5 wave impulse and is now retracing in 2 impulses. The first have been completed and we clearly see it confirmed by multiple timeframe sinewave signals. We're now working on the corrective wave of this rectacement ( the A to B wave ). Which normally plots as ZigZag and tends to be the case here. Looks like we've made the first impulse of our sub ZigZag ... working on the corrective wave (that appears to be a barrier triangle on daily chart ). The next move should be a 3 wave bullish impulse reaching out to 100-127% extension of the previous wave. Completing this will give us our B point of major count that we will the sell for the second corrective wave of the monthly corrective count. It can seem messy... but hold on, zoom in and take the time to read ! You'll have much clearer sight of what would be about to come ;) Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'm pretty new to TradingView so I'ld appreciate any like/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;) You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by PRO_Indicators
3
$len losing momentum/distribution higher time frame is showing range bound price action- negative divergence in rsi closer look at mid time frame shows the transition from a range expansion to range contraction and selling volume pressure being applied along with negative momentum lower time frame shows price action in that same range contraction apply pressure to the support area with multiple retest looking for alignment across all timeframes to tilt to the bearish side where theres is the least resistance to the downside first level to 51.7x area and then down to 51.1x
NYSE:LENShort
by inco1
$tsla pullback swing tradehigher timeframe is in uptrend with a weakening trend strength which means to resort to the oscillators intermediate timeframe is showing a strong uptrend with a flattening short term moving average- indecision/potential consolidation price action is telling me that there is a resistance at the 341.6x area with the triple pinbars MACD is declining and starting to show downward momentum alongside the rsi looking to a swing trade to the downside for an quick option trade to first profit target at .618 extension on lowertime frame of 338.0x area and next profit target level at 335.5x area which on the intermediate timeframe would show a nice shallow pullback in the countertrend setting stop tight if trade goes in other direction quickly- at 342.8x area
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by inco1
1
rai inverse head and shoulder breakouthigher timeframe showing strong uptrend and excellent trend strength intermediate timeframe showing trend alignment and showed the breakout of resistance area 67.0x area after completing inverse h and s pattern with strong positive volume pressure measured move from head of pattern to neckline is a .55 move which should give projected target of 67.55 and extension level .618 at 67.8x area consolidation in this previous range should provide enough momentum and relative strength has room to run setting stop underneath breakout candle in case of a false breakout move
RLong
by inco1