Monero, what are you doing?Hello everybody and welcome to my XMR analysis. If you are like me then you must be a big fan of Monero too, however, over the last 14 days XMR has been testing our patience after a failed attempt to break the USD 300 level. Today I'll share with you my thoughts and ideas that I have been working on and following for the last few weeks. If you like my analysis please give a 'thumbs-up' and/or follow me for more ideas in the future.
So lets dive into Monero. In the previous and fierce rally of a bit more than 2 weeks ago, XMR made a strong move towards USD 300 but failed to break this important resistance. Coming from USD 160, XMR almost doubled in value within 2 weeks. Unsurprisingly the bulls ran out of steam after 2 weeks and had to retrace.
To understand the whole situation we need to look back to the last few weeks and take a multi dimensional approach. In the daily chart below you can see that XMR is in an upward moving channel. Although XMR failed to breach USD 300k it has found strong support on the 200 day Exponantial-Moving-Average (EMA) with a wick finding support on the 50 EMA.
After the failed attempt to break the USD 300 level, XMR initially found support at the psychologically important level of USD 250 but later moved to mid 230 levels with a wick going all the way to USD 220. To understand what happened here we need to have a look to the XMR/BTC chart as well. In the 4-hour chart below we can see that in the previous Monero rally, XMR was very close to reaching a new All-Time-High (ATH). When XMR failed to breach USD 300 it retraced all the way back until the 200 EMA where it found a bit of support but which didn't sustain. After that it fell back to the 50 EMA where it found stronger support. As you can see, XMR has found strong support on the 50 EMA on this level for the last few months and is currently holding up pretty well again.
Although XMR is an altcoin with very distinct features compared to Bitcoin, it is currently very tied (as all altcoins) to the action going on with BTC. Last week we experienced a failed attempt from BTC to breach the important USD 10k level and this is holding the whole altcoin market in a grip. I believe that Bitcoin is currently preparing for another attempt to breach USD 10k and if it succeeds, XMR will likely profit from this as bulls will have the confidence to aim for the USD 300 mark again.
Going back to the XMR/USD chart again - on the 4 hour chart - we are also forming a descending wedge. Downside momentum is decreasing and a potential break-out increasing.
At the same time we are noticing that the Relative-Strength-Index (RSI) is turning bullish. The Commodity-Channel-Index (CCI) is at a healthy level and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is rolling over to become bullish again. These indicators are at a healthy level for a new rally since we do not want them to be over-bullish or over-bought now.
So did we found a bottom and where are we heading?
For now I think we either hit the bottom or are very close to it. XMRBTC and XMRUSD is currently finding strong support at the 200 and 50 EMA and sell volume is rather low. A new attempt to break USD 300 is in my opinion very likely so I expect XMR to at least touch USD 290 in the next 2 weeks.
At the same time we need to carefully watch any BTC action. If BTC fails to break USD 10k and starts to retrace to USD 8k levels (or lower?) I expect the whole altcoin market to take a significant pull back as well. XMR will then retrace as well where the first level of support would be USD 200 which has been a strong support level in the past.
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research before investing.
