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European Central Bank Preview – Time to PivotDespite facing the unknown external shock of a war, the Eurozone economy’s growth has been resilient in the first three quarters of the year. Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q3, easing from a 0.8% increase in Q2 2022 aided by the rise in government spending alongside an improvement in inflation adjusted trade surplus . However, this is likely to change in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 as COVID reopening demand fades. Eurozone recession remains a key risk until Q1 2023 Europe is set to embark on a harsh winter, and with savings rates extending the decline from a 1.7% drop in Q2, consumer spending is likely to come under pressure. The 1.8% month on month falls in euro area retail sales in October is consistent with the notion that real income squeeze is now catching up the with consumers. Services spending rose only 1.5% in Q3 compared to the 3.1% jump in Q2 2022 . The labour market has remained fairly resilient as Eurozone unemployment hit a new low of 6.5% in October, pushed down by falling unemployment in Southern Europe, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria. However, unemployment is likely to rise as the economic slowdown and tightening financial conditions impact hiring. That being said, fiscal policy could come to the rescue as major Eurozone governments have earmarked €573Bn into the economy to shield the private sector from the upcoming fallout in economic activity. Inflation in the Eurozone declined more than expected from 10.6% in October to 10% in November. Yet it’s hard to say for certain that the inflation rate has passed its peak as it is largely dependent on the fluctuations in energy prices. Core inflation remained at 5% in November and is likely to remain close to 5% through Q1 2023 . Companies continue to transfer higher input costs to consumers and in spite of an approaching recession, we expect this process of cost-push inflation to extend into 2023, keeping price pressures higher for longer. European Central Bank (ECB) split between the doves and hawks Ms Isabel Schnabel (a member of the executive board of the ECB) warned in November that loose fiscal policy risks adding to underlying inflation pressures by boosting consumption and reducing the incentive for consumers and businesses to save energy. We would argue that while the volume of relief packages is large, they are insufficient to provide complete relief for all consumers and companies. Ms Schnabel also noted that, “that the room for slowing down the pace of interest rate adjustments remains limited, even as we are approaching estimates of the ‘neutral rate’”. This hawkish sentiment was echoed by Dutch central bank head Klaas Knot in his statement that risks are tilted towards the ECB doing too little to combat rising inflation, noting that an economic slowdown, or perhaps even a recession, is needed to bring inflation under control. President Lagarde stressed that she would be surprised if inflation has already peaked, as there is too much uncertainty regarding the pass-through of high energy costs at the wholesale level into the retail level. She added that the ECB may have to go into restrictive territory with key rates. On the other hand, the head of the French central bank, Villeroy, who has often anticipated the actual ECB decisions in his statements, spoke out in favour of 50 basis points. Even hawks such as Bundesbank President Nagel and Estonian Mueller seem to be able to come to terms with a hike of just 50 basis points. Further clarity on Quantitative Tightening (QT) The ECB is likely to meet consensus expectations this week of narrowing the pace of rate hikes to 50Bps on 15 December, following two 75Bps rate hikes in September and October. This decision will lift its deposit and refinancing rates to 2% and 2.5% respectively. Neither peaking inflation nor a recession will give the ECB a reason to hold back from raising rates in Q1 2023, but both suggest that risks are tilted towards a slower pace of tightening. The outlook for the balance sheet, and more specifically QT, will be another key theme at this week’s meeting. It will be interesting to see whether the ECB will be pressed to sell bonds outright or stick with roll-off. We would expect the central bank to begin with an Asset Purchase Program (APP) roll-off equivalent to a monthly reduction of €25Bn in the balance sheet on average. Currently the ECB is still using Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) reinvestments to compress spreads and the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) remains at its disposal if conditions deteriorate further. Both these tools limit how far the ECB can go with QT. Sources: 1Eurostat as of 30 November 2022 2National Accounts as of 30 November 2022 3Bruegel as of 31 October 2022 4Bloomberg as of 30 November 2022
FRED:ECBASSETSW
by aneekaguptaWTE
Yield Curve Control Goblin Capital presents you -- The most risky contrarian trade you can currently take -- Am I all in? Yes Do I have children? No Am I still young and not much to lose? Yes Do I have a lot of bad debt? No Will I financially recover if this trade goes South? Yes Therefore, my dear Goblins: I urge you to only play with money that you are willing to lose. Please do not bet the house and the kids on this trade. This will be the outcome you are betting on: BOE — Recently reverted to Quantitative Easing (QE) in order to save its financial system, which will soon morph into YCC — more on this later. BOJ — Continuing their policy of YCC in order to save their banking system and allow the government to borrow at affordable rates. ECB — Continuing to print money to purchase the bonds of weak members of the EU, but has pledged to begin Quantitative Tightening (QT) soon — more on this later, too. PBOC — Restarting the money printer in order to provide liquidity to the banking system to prop up the falling residential property market. Fed — Continuing to raise interest rates and is shrinking its balance sheet via QT. Source: A. Hayes, Medium article "Contagion" See you in Dubai next summer. Regards, Hugo Chief Executive Goblin Goblin Capital
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Goblin777k
2
The SNB could surprise (again) with a larger than expected hikeThe SNB (Swiss National Bank) are expected to hike interest rates tomorrow, which would send their rate above zero for the first time since 2011. The central bank entered ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) between 2011 – 2015 before switching to NIRP (negative interest rate policy) with a rate of -0.75%, where it remained until June this year. And with seemingly few paying attention, they not only hiked rates but came out swinging with a 50bp hike and sent shockwaves across currency markets. This quickly saw the yen strengthen as traders assumed the BOJ would be next to follow, but we’re still waiting and will likely be for some time. But the main point I am making is that the SNB are likely to hike again tomorrow, and it would be wise to at least be prepared for a larger hike than some expect. A 50, 75 or even 100bp hike could be on the table for the SNB A recent poll saw economists up their 50bp hike for the SNB to 75bp. But in light of Sweden’s Riksbank hiking by 100bp, wholesale prices in Germany exploding higher and the potential for the Fed to hike by 100bp, I’m not discounting the potential for the SNB to join to 100bp club. Besides, they hiked by 50bp when the consensus was for no change at all and have a track record with an element of surprise. Furthermore, the Swiss government upgraded 2022 CPI from 2.5% to 3%, and for 2023 from 1.4% to 2.3% - so perhaps they know something we don’t. CHF/JPY daily chart: There are fewer finer examples of a strong bullish trend on a currency chart, than CHF/JPY right now. Momentum has been increasing during each impulse move higher, the moving averages are in ‘bullish sequence’ and fanning out, and prices are respecting the closest average as support. Prices have been coiling up within a falling wedge pattern (bullish in an uptrend) and potentially printed its swing low this week at the 10-day EMA. Furthermore, a 3-day bullish reversal pattern called a morning star has formed, so the bias remains bullish above this week’s low and for a move to the 150.71 high. A break above which brings 154 into focus. However, even if prices break low we would still keep an eye out for a potential swing low, given the diverging policies between the SNB and BOJ.
Long
by CityIndex
Weekly gold, another short opportunityTraders will keep eyes on global bond markets for next week because if the Bank of England's strange policies continue, it could help gold to rise while the Bank of Japan, which is concerned about high prices in USDJPY, should intervene in the forex market. In addition to buying yen, they can sell US bonds in the markets and witness fluctuations in bond yields. The risk of the economic recession is the driver of the rise of gold. But in the short term, the attention of all traders is on contractionary policies and decisions of central banks, which can put pressure on gold. As we told you in last week's analysis, any upside movement in gold will be short-term and provide a selling opportunity. Because the US dollar is in the overbought zone and also the bonds are at their highest points, the take profits have the possibility of raising the price of the gold. On the other hand, due to the hawkish policies of the central banks as well as the US central bank, this pressure on gold will not be removed and as long as we observe the rotation of the monetary policies of the central banks, we cannot expect a stable rise for gold. The world's largest bond market has fluctuated strongly in the last week due to the fear of the British debt crisis. But, with the intervention of the BOE and the introduction of the government bond purchase program, the treasury bonds' price fall was compensated. The trend changed as the Bank of England intervened in the bond market and it lowered the yield of American bonds. Now, in addition to the policies of the Federal Reserve, other central banks also affect bonds and we have to care about them. As we said in the analysis, gold is bearish in the medium and long term until we see a turn in the contractionary policies of the central banks But this week due to the upcoming economic data and the possibility of correction of the US dollar index and US bond yields, there is a possibility of gold increase. However, we predict a turbulent week and our suggestion to traders is to wait this week and sell gold from the high points. $1700 to $1724 is our sightly range to looking short opportunity to the$1620 area
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Alisabbaghi
INFLATION HAS TOPPED OUT!Good day We have all heard the news regarding the FED increasing interest rates in order to solve the inflation "crisis" we are currently enduring. Some say this is great, some say this is horrible, however, overall this move was inevitable as markets such as this are cyclical and manipulatable by those who control monetary policy. For those who are in the market for a quick buck that follows the advice of so-called pro traders, this may not be the greatest time for you. On the other hand those with diamond hands, the smart money understand the benefits of this very rare occurrence in time. Not only will you be handed a highly decreased asset to invest in, in the next few days/weeks but, your spending power will increase due to the FED's attempt to bring inflation to 2% on top of a substantial increase in wealth once we are out of the thick of it. (2024) It is not possible to know when inflation will reach 2%, only those who control the market fluctuation know these dates but for now, we need to understand that we are going to be in a recession most likely for the better part of 2 years, which coincidentally will line up with the cyclical bull market structure of BTC. Could this be a coincidence or are we heading for a bull market never seen before? it could be argued that the crypto space specifically has been held back in the recent bull market and like a spring will eventually jump to levels only one could dream of. This statement will be strengthened dramatically as the world moves into a space where digital currency becomes the framework of the exchange of value internationally and in all aspects of the current macroeconomic structure. This narrative will only be pushed on an institutional level once the ever-desired and increasing space achieves regulatory clearance of some sort in order to enable governments to sustain some sort of market dominance. This idea is widely unexcepted by the retail investor as most feel governments must be done away with in order to open up for a fully decentralized network to govern our financial sector globally... as great as this sounds it just sounds more and more like a pipe dream. We as people need to have some sort of governance and a system that regulates our decision-making on a financial level or else chaos will break out leading to potentially societal collapse. But on the bright side, the crypto space will eventually allow for a stable deflationary environment where our wealth will have a safe haven to grow. All we need to do is sacrifice complete decentralization in order to achieve a potential innovation of the financial system that will revolutionize finance forever... In this case, we all win... @TradingView
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Crisp_Flow
2
AUDUSD bout to go down underA couple of key factors here need to come into play, inflation figures need to come back worse than expected in July, followed by the fed becoming more hawkish with their monetary policy. Australia will follow suit and hit that cash rate target of 3-4%. Cost of living isn't taking a reprieve and the mining industry isn't saving the australian economy atm. If we see a reversal of QT from the fed we could see a bounce in risk on markets. But for now the USD looks to reign supreme. Shorting the bear flag to 0.6780 with a breakdown in the support we could see a bearish continuation to 0.6100! Things are getting spicy and you're kidding yourself if you think the markets seen the last of volatility. NFA DYOR
Short
by jakec90
Dollar DXY Top happens May-June - Biden Policy CatalystDXY can run a bit higher, based on fib extension and candle patterns, this should find a catalyst to move it back down lower. This Dollar Long Mania is similar to the Gold fake-pump at the beginning of Russia-Ukraine conflict WILMINGTON, Del. - President Joe Biden will draw a contrast between his economic plans and those of Republicans in remarks on Tuesday focused on inflation, a White House official said. BATTERED U.S. STOCKS MAY NOT BE BARGAINS AS INVESTORS BRACE FOR INFLATION DATA Biden, a Democrat who is suffering from low approval poll numbers ahead of the November midterm elections, has sharpened his rhetoric against Republicans in recent weeks, dismissing, for example, former President Donald Trump's "Make America Great Again" MAGA movement as extreme. President Joe Biden will draw a contrast between his economic plans and those of Republicans in remarks on Tuesday focused on inflation, a White House official said. (Getty Images / Getty Images) On Tuesday Biden will lay out his plan to fight inflation and "contrast his approach with Congressional Republicans' ultra-MAGA plan to raise taxes on 75 million American families and threaten to sunset programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid," the official said. GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE Last week Biden took aim at Republican U.S. Senator Rick Scott's economic plan, saying it would raise taxes on 75 million Americans, most of whom make less than $100,000 a year. Scott, who said he planned to cut taxes, is leading Republican efforts to get Republicans elected to the Senate.
ICEUS:DXYShort
by noam_chom
EUR/JPY CONTINUED GAINS SEEM LIKELYHaruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), expressly denies expectations of monetary and fiscal policy tightening in the coming months. He said Japan is in no position to tighten monetary policy. This clearly indicates that the yen might be significantly weaker. Technically, price is currently treading above 138.938. We expect it to find resistance at around 141.629 to 143 area. However, upside momentum may be nullified if a reversal happens to occur when price pullbacks and breaks below the turning point 138.938
Long
by TradeyMarkets
Henry Hub Natural Gas futures showing slowing momentumHenry Hub Natural Gas futures showing slowing momentum across the futures curve up to Jan 2024 ($NGF2024). Recent geopolitical risks i.e. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, have pushed the prices of both spot and futures of commodities higher. Natural Gas futures across the curve are tracking each other with a tighter spread till Jun 2023 implying that the market participants expect the prices to remain elevated for a longer time. However in the short-term, the price action shows an exhaustion by bulls forming a ranging pattern with a possibility of a reversal. Central banks around the developed world highlighted in their Monetary Policy Statements this May that they expect energy prices to remain elevated for the next 18 months. I'll definitely be watching out for the impact of the policy tightening regime - which we are in now - to the demand side of the economy, and it's second-order effects on gas prices.
NYMEX:NG1!
by GrizzlyBearBee
WHEN THE DOLLAR CRASHES!!!!!When you trade US Based pairs (anything tagged to the dollar) it's important to be mindful of news and what price the DXY is trading between. EURUSD has been shorting hard because the DXY (dollar) has been at an all time high. With the bad inflation news that just recently came out, the dollar immediately fell off a cliff causing all US Base pair to experience a correction in the markets. This is nothing to get worried about. When we know when and why these things happen in the FOREX market we can better capitalize on these moves for huge profits. Happy Trading Family!
TVC:DXY
by Master-Jedi-Trader
NZDUSD: short before the New Zeland central bank speachOn Wednesday, the New Zeland central bank will speak about the next monetary policy about raising the interest rate: it's been estimated that the probability of a rate hike is 90%. From a technical point of view, NZD/USD seems to be uncertain: it plays around its 200 simple moving average but, lastly, it seems to show strong weakness. If the NZD would cross its support (red line), I expect the price to reach at least 0.66. Target has been found simply from the distance between its high (04/05/2022) and the support line.
Short
by paolodambra1
Australian bond yields rise after RBA leaves key rate unchangedThe market is currently pricing 7 rate hikes ending in the Q2-Q4 2023 range. To quote Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor of the RBA: "Inflation has increased in Australia, but it remains lower than in many other countries; in underlying terms, inflation is 2.6 per cent and in headline terms it is 3.5 per cent. Higher prices for petrol and other commodities will result in a further lift in inflation over coming quarters, with an updated set of forecasts to be published in May. The main sources of uncertainty relate to the speed of resolution of the various supply-side issues, developments in global energy markets and the evolution of overall labour costs. Financial conditions in Australia continue to be highly accommodative. Interest rates remain at a very low level, although fixed mortgage rates for new loans have risen recently. The Australian dollar exchange rate has appreciated due to the higher commodity prices and, in TWI terms, is around the level of a year ago. Housing prices have risen strongly over the past year, although some housing markets have eased recently. With interest rates at historically low levels, it is important that lending standards are maintained and that borrowers have adequate buffers. The Board's policies during the pandemic have supported progress towards the objectives of full employment and inflation consistent with the target. The Board has wanted to see actual evidence that inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range before it increases interest rates. Inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected, but growth in labour costs has been below rates that are likely to be consistent with inflation being sustainably at target. Over coming months, important additional evidence will be available to the Board on both inflation and the evolution of labor costs. The Board will assess this and other incoming information as its sets policy to support full employment in Australia and inflation outcomes consistent with the target." It is important to note the change in rhetoric with the governor mentioning that inflation could head higher with no mention of when the RBA expects to hike rates. For the full statement, visit the official RBA website: www.rba.gov.au The CAPITALCOM:AUDUSD broke out of key resistance with the price increasing likely to roll over back to pre release price.
TVC:AU10YLong
by GrizzlyBearBee
USDJPY Attempting a BreakoutThe price action of the USDJPY is currently attempting a breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 115.665. Bullish pressure was bolstered earlier today following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hint at a very likely rate hike by the end of the month . If the breakout is successful, the price action will re-test the previous swing peak at 116.300. If not, a minor pullback to the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci at 115.248 may follow next. The latter is about to converge with the 100-day MA (in blue) and 50-day MA (in green), making it an even stronger support. That is why it is unlikely for a deeper correction to unfold in the near future.
Long
by Trendsharks
S&P 500 Reacts to Rate Hikes - Forecast for 2022The S&P 500 had a tough week with notable losses in tech stocks. The stock market tends to be reactive to interest rate decisions so this performance may not be so surprising when considering the hawkish tone of the Fed. The fight against inflation looks set to dominate 2022 and Goldman Sachs predicts four rate hikes this year from the Fed. But, is the bull run over for S&P 500? There are reasons to be optimistic that it may continue even with these market conditions. You may recall that many top companies have fared well in the pandemic. Investors will be more wary of risk assets, but blue chips with strong fundamentals could experience strong growth throughout 2022. Once March rate hikes are priced in, we could see the index regain its strength and continue a push upwards. In the short term, bearish pressure could see the index slip to 4630 which is a strong support level. There is strong resistance around the 4725 level where the MA200 is on the 4-hour timeline. Once this resistance is broken, we could see a test of the ascending channel and from there price could continue to surge past all-time highs.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Capitalcom
BoE Ends The Year With A Hike! (20 December 2021)Surprise rate hike! The Bank of England (BoE) delivered an interest rate hike of 0.15% during their monetary policy announcement last Thursday. Out of the nine committee members, eight voted for a rate hike while one voted for rate to remain unchanged at the previous 0.10%. All nine members voted for no change of corporate bond purchases at £20 billion and UK government bond purchases at £875 billion, totaling £895 billion. With an almost unanimous decision to hike interest rate as opposed to the previous meeting whereby only two members voted for a rate hike, it seems like the committee members are downplaying the impact of the COVID Omicron variant despite the recent spike in Omicron cases in the UK. Reasons behind the hike The first motivating factor for the BoE to hike interest rate is the resilient job market. To the surprise of the central bank, there was no concrete evidence that the ending of the UK furlough scheme in September led to a weakening in the labour market. Instead, the latest data released by the Labour Force Survey indicated that unemployment rate has fallen to 4.2% in the three months to October and that 257,000 jobs were added into the economy in November, thus showing little impact from the exiting of the furlough scheme. Moreover, the central bank’s committee highlighted during the November’s meeting that if future employment data were to be in line with its projection, it will be necessary for rate hikes to take place in order to tone down inflation and maintain it at the BoE’s 2% target. And during the meeting last week, the central bank deemed that the condition has been met, thus an interest rate hike is warranted. Another motivating factor for the rate hike is the recent strong inflation that has caught the attention of the UK Finance minister, leading to the exchange of open letters between him and BoE Governor Bailey. In November, prices in the UK rose to a 10-year high level of 5.1% and is expected to remain around the same level throughout the winter period and peak around 6% in next April. Being the first G7 central bank to carry out an interest rate hike, we can certainly expect the next hike to come as soon as February 2022 since inflation is on the way to triple the central bank’s 2% target.
by GH_Lee
1
The Final Sprint (16 December 2021)Doubling the pace of QE tapering The Federal Reserve ended its final monetary policy meeting for the year with a bang. While holding interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0-0.25%, the central bank doubled the pace of quantitative easing (QE) tapering from the current $15 billion ($10 billion of Treasury securities + $5 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities) per month to $30 billion ($20 billion of Treasury securities + $10 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities) per month starting from January 2022. The decision to speed up tapering comes as the central bank felt that “the economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support”, Fed Chairman Powell explained during the press conference. He also mentioned that the recent pace of inflation is “uncomfortably high” and employment in the U.S. is making substantial progress towards the central bank’s maximum employment goal. And so, the committee felt that the time has come to progressively withdraw from the policy enacted in response to the pandemic. Hence, in March 2022, the Fed’s massive bond buying programme will come to a complete halt, opening the way for interest rate hikes. Dot plot indicates aggressive rate hikes for 2022 In the released quarterly projection materials, the dot plot shows a big shift in the dots upwards, indicating that more members are now expecting interest rate to be at a higher level for the next few years. Specifically, all 18 members of the committee expect at least one rate hike while 12 of them expect three rate hikes in 2022. Also, 11 members expected that interest rate will return to the pre-pandemic level of 1.5-1.75% in 2023, contrasting from the previous projection materials that only three members expect so. The sense of urgency for more rate hikes come as inflation has escalated to a near 40-year high level. Persistent inflation Ever since consumer prices set new highs in decades for two consecutive months, the Fed has changed its view that inflation is transitory. The central bank’s Chief is now acknowledging that inflation “may be more persistent” and is having an upward pressure on inflation expectations. It was also mentioned in the rate statement that supply and demand imbalances have led to “elevated levels of inflation”. Thus, the Fed has revised PCE inflation expectations upwards for 2022. Moving forward, we can expect the Federal Reserve to wind up its QE during the first quarter of 2022 since good progress towards its dual mandate has been made – annual inflation has more than doubled the central bank’s target for several months and the rate towards maximum employment has been fast and is expected to continue in the near future.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
The Central Banks Week Will Seal the end of the YearThe last important week for markets has started as the major monetary policymakers are going to hold their last meetings of the year this week. The decisions made by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) will add a final touch to the very successful recovery year which remains clouded by the still developing pandemic. Investors are preparing for the Fed to begin to tackle blistering inflation on a wide scale. Inflation has managed to set another record at 6.8% year-on-year for the month of November. The consumer price index has remained above the 2% target for the ninth consecutive month. So, the Fed must discuss additional tapering this Wednesday and the market is ready for such a scenario. I expect investors’ reaction to such a decision from the Fed to be muted. The end of tapering would allow the Fed to hike its interest rates in the second half of 2022. I have also recently written that the U.S. stock indices have strong chances of ending the year in the green zone, and the closing of the last week of the year may see the Dow Jones index adding some 4.02% and the fact that the S&P 500 broad market index has risen by 3.82% confirms that idea. If there are no surprises at the end of the year, we may expect a mini rally, pushing stock indices to new all-time highs. The ECB and the BoE would hardly rush ahead of the Fed. Some ECB members are expressing caution to delay the decision of any tapering for the next meeting that is scheduled for February 3, saying that there is still not enough information on the new Omicron variant and its impact on the economy. The emerging Omicron variant restored travel restrictions in the European Union and enforced EU nations to decide about mandatory vaccination for everybody. This will be discussed by the EU leaders on December 16. The BoE will have its meeting on the same day as the ECB. The British monetary policymaker is less likely to hike its interest rates now that the Omicron variant has emerged. Still investors consider there is a 65% chance of such a possibility. GBPUSD returned above 1.32 at the end of the previous week forming a reversal “morning star” candlestick pattern. If we consider the decline of the last two months, then we may suggest that we have a descending wedge, which is also a reversal pattern. The resistance of this pattern was already broken last Friday and may indicate further strengthening of the Cable. The nearest targets are at 1.3375 and 1.3480-1.3500. However, if the BoE would dare to be the first to switch to the monetary tightening policy, the Pound may soar to 1.3800 in the mid-term perspective.
by scavoanastasiia
The Cautious Kiwi (25 November 2021)As widely expected, we see a further tightening of monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) during the meeting on Wednesday. But the decision did not gain any positive market reaction for the New Zealand dollar as the 0.25% hike in interest rate had already been priced in. It was a 0.50% hike that the market was yearning for. Once the market did not receive the 0.50% hike, a strong sell-off in the New Zealand dollar followed across the board. Catalysts for more rate hikes: maximum employment, high inflation and rising home prices The RBNZ highlighted that employment in New Zealand is now above its maximum sustainable level while unemployment rate has declined to the lowest level in over a decade. At the same time, annual inflation in the country has risen to 4.9%, way above the central bank’s 1-3% target amid the ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and the rising global oil prices. Furthermore, the RBNZ is expecting prices to remain high in the near term before declining back down to within their targeted range. On the matter of home prices, the central bank’s officials concluded that the current level of home prices are unsustainable but noted that continued hikes in interest rate will likely lead to more sustainable home prices. Bond holdings under LSAP no longer significant With the functioning of the bond market improving, the RBNZ has stopped purchasing bonds under the Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programme in July. Furthermore, the current holdings of the bonds purchased by the central bank are only providing meagre stimulus. Thus, the RBNZ will be providing more details on winding down its bond holdings early next year. All is not lost! Although the modest rate hike was kind of a disappointment, causing the New Zealand dollar to take a hit, it is likely that the impact will be temporary. The RBNZ’s interest rate projection for 2022 indicates that rate hikes are expected in every quarter of the year, with interest rate rising to 2.1% by year-end. This interest rate level has surpassed the pre-pandemic level, thus indicating the central bank’s forecast that the New Zealand economy in 2022 is likely going to outperform the year just before the pandemic struck. The projection material also showed that the RBNZ is expecting annual inflation to peak at 5.7% during the first quarter of 2022 before declining steadily to 3.3% by year-end. However, the expected decline throughout the year is insufficient for inflation to fall within the central bank’s 1-3% target. And so, the officials may still consider a more aggressive rate hike as an option in the future in order to add more downward pressure on prices.
by GH_Lee
Markets news n°37And it is back! > Biden re-nominates Powell as Fed chair, praising the progress made in the USA *********************** Biden said "we’ve made remarkable progress", and the US admin mentionned the improvement in unemployement as well as economic recovery, shutting down voices of opposition within the US central banking community. No change in direction, we can expect the monetary base to continue to expand at the high pace started a few years ago (followed a couple of years pace higher than the previous one which itself was higher than the previous one). The Federal Reserve has a statement (+ economic numbers) later today (24/11). Maybe a catalyst for markets to move strongly, even more strongly. The WH decision might have ended a period of price uncertainty, finally things can get moving! www.whitehouse.gov > ECB Lagarde also announced nothing will change despite inflation far above target *********************** Guess what? The game of ping pong continues between the US and EU. No that's not ping pong. How do you call the first one that moves loses? Hold my beard first to laugh loses? Anyway, here we go again: Despite inflation more than double of target in Europe (at 4.1% last I heard) Lagarde said rates would probably not increase in 2022. The evil conspiracy of "forcing growth" is ongoing. I'm sure it's going to work out just great. If they create big moves and easy money in the market remember you need to make 4-5% just to breakeven. Passive "rentier" type boomers and unskilled bottom of the chain labor are the ones that lose. And yellow vest protests in France will never end, not until they get a "right-winger" elected, we're getting pretty close now. France might get its own Trump next year. But does anyone mind the transfer of wealth from passive rentier boomers and heirs to active investors? I don't (obviously). > Europe bankers approved new system for stablecoins and more, but said "no rush" *********************** The ECB’s Governing Council announced 2 days ago they approved a new oversight framework for electronic payments, the "payment instruments, schemes and arrangements", or ‘Pisa’, framework. In particular in includes cryptos and stablecoins. 2 weeks ago at the Singapore Fintech Festival several banksters said the adoption of crypto should not be rushed, there should be more caution, while crypto entrepreneur(s) (Nick Ogden from RTGS.global) said it should go faster. Well no big surprise, that's not even news. Entrepreneurs are horny, bankers hate risk. www.ecb.europa.eu > Happy anniversary! Exactly 50 years ago journalists promised they would never lie *********************** Here's something that brings a smile: The Munich Declaration of the Duties and Rights of Journalists was signed by six syndicates of journalists of the six countries of the European community in Munich the 24 November 1971. 50 years. A lot has changed... Here are a few juicy bits: 1) Respecting the truth no matter what consequences it may bring abut to him, and this is because the right of the public is to know the truth. HAHA! 2) Defending the freedom of information, of commentaries and of criticism. CANCEL HIM! 6) Correcting any published information which has proved to be inaccurate. 8) Abstaining from plagiarism, slander, defamation and unfounded accusations... 9) Never confusing the profession of journalist with that of advertiser or propagandist... 10) Refusing any pressure and accepting editorial directives only from the leading persons in charge in the editorial office. > Elon Musk dumps his ponzi bags like Charlie Lee did, and crashes TSLA share price *********************** Remember when Charlie Lee sold his LTC ponzi beans at the very top in 2017 and collapsed the price? With some laughable excuse "I want no conflict of interest". Well richest crook in the world Elon Musk pulled a Charlie Lee, if I understood correctly to keep it simple basically his insiders and investors said in their own words he was a manipulative narcisist and Tesla was better off without him. Similar "conflict of interest" magic trick the guy at the top of the Litecoin pyramid scheme did. Didn't Vitalik also say some similar nonsense? He just wanted to retire from coding at 20, just live off his bags. Lazy. Price could be early in a correction > From the WSJ: covid deaths in 2021 in the USA have surpassed the 2020 number *********************** Americans, champions of obesity, recently surpassed their previous record in the area of covid deaths. And there is another month to go. The record was surpassed by early November, and 2020 death did only start in March-April. So it's going to be I guess about as bad. Despite all the vaccination and boosters and lockdowns and masks and capitalistic vitamin health improvement pills suckers buy and absolutely-everything-possible-except-losing-weight. If I may give my personal experience I noticed my landlord, before 2020, was in charge of managing his clients, went out to walk every day. And after 2020 lockdowns his wife was managing everything and he was barely standing, with a stick. I think he is recovering he is walking faster than a turtle now. I thought he was about to die, these covid "saving lives" policies really hit him. That's the only old person I know (and I haven't gotten anywhere close to him, self distancing), otherwise I haven't gotten sick in 5 years and if the media didn't tell me I wouldn't even know this virus existed. Living among us there are millions of terrified, isolated old childless boomers that never go out I don't even know exist - other than from statistics. Just rotting in their houses, waiting to die, right under my nose. A bit crazy to think of. Bruh I just thought... maybe there are some thousands of houses with dead people in them right now. Did anyone check? Damn. The WSJ is suggesting the reason for this virus still being so relatively deadly is lower-than-expected immunization rates as well as fatigue with precautionary measures like masks. Interesting because a few days ago France PM caught covid and seems he gave it to other members of the government, after he was seen not wearing a mask and touching everywhere with his hands. He is getting roasted a lot. www.wsj.com
by MrRenev
2
The Road To Normalcy Begins (06 November 2021)Fed starts tapering! The long-awaited taper meeting has finally arrived! The Federal Reserve announced during their monetary policy meeting on Thursday that it will begin slowing down its net asset purchases by $15 billion per month which comprises of $10 billion Treasury bonds and $5 billion agency mortgage-backed securities. The first round of tapering will begin later this month and the second round will take place at the beginning of December. Moving forward, the monthly pace of quantitative easing (QE) tapering will be similar to these two months and may be adjusted depending on the economic outlook. Regardless of the pace, the Fed is expecting QE to end by mid-2022. The following illustration shows that under the same tapering pace, QE will end in June 2022. Nov 2021: $70b Treasury Bonds + $35b Agency MBS Dec 2021: $60b Treasury Bonds + $30b Agency MBS Jan 2022: $50b Treasury Bonds + $25b Agency MBS Feb 2022: $40b Treasury Bonds + $20b Agency MBS Mar 2022: $30b Treasury Bonds + $15b Agency MBS Apr 2022: $20b Treasury Bonds + $10b Agency MBS May 2022: $10b Treasury Bonds + $5b Agency MBS Jun 2022: End of QE A small step back on “transitory” With the recent comment made by Fed Chairman Powell that supply bottlenecks will take longer to ease, thus expecting prices to remain high for a longer period of time, the Fed has taken a small step back from its view on inflation being transitory. The previous confidence that the elevated inflation “largely reflecting transitory factors” has now been revised to “largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory”. During the press conference, Powell also clarified the definition of “transitory” that the central bank adopts after highlighting that the word has different understanding to different people. For the Fed, “if something is transitory it will not leave behind permanently – or very persistently higher – inflation”. With the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the central bank Chief is expecting inflation to continue its rise into 2022 before easing back down during mid-2022. Maximum employment still quite a distance away Although tapering of the massive $120 billion per month QE programme has begun, Powell warned that the Fed’s decision to do so does not imply a rate hike is underway. The central bank held its interest rate unchanged at the targeted range of 0-0.25% and would like to see the labour market achieve maximum employment before considering a hike. As of the October’s jobs report, the U.S. job market is still some 5 million jobs away from the pre-pandemic level. The Fed is likely going to consider a rate hike only when the jobs lost during the pandemic have been fully recovered. Even so, the central bank may wait a little longer to be certain that jobs growth is indeed consistent before committing.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
3