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Markets news n°37And it is back! > Biden re-nominates Powell as Fed chair, praising the progress made in the USA *********************** Biden said "we’ve made remarkable progress", and the US admin mentionned the improvement in unemployement as well as economic recovery, shutting down voices of opposition within the US central banking community. No change in direction, we can expect the monetary base to continue to expand at the high pace started a few years ago (followed a couple of years pace higher than the previous one which itself was higher than the previous one). The Federal Reserve has a statement (+ economic numbers) later today (24/11). Maybe a catalyst for markets to move strongly, even more strongly. The WH decision might have ended a period of price uncertainty, finally things can get moving! www.whitehouse.gov > ECB Lagarde also announced nothing will change despite inflation far above target *********************** Guess what? The game of ping pong continues between the US and EU. No that's not ping pong. How do you call the first one that moves loses? Hold my beard first to laugh loses? Anyway, here we go again: Despite inflation more than double of target in Europe (at 4.1% last I heard) Lagarde said rates would probably not increase in 2022. The evil conspiracy of "forcing growth" is ongoing. I'm sure it's going to work out just great. If they create big moves and easy money in the market remember you need to make 4-5% just to breakeven. Passive "rentier" type boomers and unskilled bottom of the chain labor are the ones that lose. And yellow vest protests in France will never end, not until they get a "right-winger" elected, we're getting pretty close now. France might get its own Trump next year. But does anyone mind the transfer of wealth from passive rentier boomers and heirs to active investors? I don't (obviously). > Europe bankers approved new system for stablecoins and more, but said "no rush" *********************** The ECB’s Governing Council announced 2 days ago they approved a new oversight framework for electronic payments, the "payment instruments, schemes and arrangements", or ‘Pisa’, framework. In particular in includes cryptos and stablecoins. 2 weeks ago at the Singapore Fintech Festival several banksters said the adoption of crypto should not be rushed, there should be more caution, while crypto entrepreneur(s) (Nick Ogden from RTGS.global) said it should go faster. Well no big surprise, that's not even news. Entrepreneurs are horny, bankers hate risk. www.ecb.europa.eu > Happy anniversary! Exactly 50 years ago journalists promised they would never lie *********************** Here's something that brings a smile: The Munich Declaration of the Duties and Rights of Journalists was signed by six syndicates of journalists of the six countries of the European community in Munich the 24 November 1971. 50 years. A lot has changed... Here are a few juicy bits: 1) Respecting the truth no matter what consequences it may bring abut to him, and this is because the right of the public is to know the truth. HAHA! 2) Defending the freedom of information, of commentaries and of criticism. CANCEL HIM! 6) Correcting any published information which has proved to be inaccurate. 8) Abstaining from plagiarism, slander, defamation and unfounded accusations... 9) Never confusing the profession of journalist with that of advertiser or propagandist... 10) Refusing any pressure and accepting editorial directives only from the leading persons in charge in the editorial office. > Elon Musk dumps his ponzi bags like Charlie Lee did, and crashes TSLA share price *********************** Remember when Charlie Lee sold his LTC ponzi beans at the very top in 2017 and collapsed the price? With some laughable excuse "I want no conflict of interest". Well richest crook in the world Elon Musk pulled a Charlie Lee, if I understood correctly to keep it simple basically his insiders and investors said in their own words he was a manipulative narcisist and Tesla was better off without him. Similar "conflict of interest" magic trick the guy at the top of the Litecoin pyramid scheme did. Didn't Vitalik also say some similar nonsense? He just wanted to retire from coding at 20, just live off his bags. Lazy. Price could be early in a correction > From the WSJ: covid deaths in 2021 in the USA have surpassed the 2020 number *********************** Americans, champions of obesity, recently surpassed their previous record in the area of covid deaths. And there is another month to go. The record was surpassed by early November, and 2020 death did only start in March-April. So it's going to be I guess about as bad. Despite all the vaccination and boosters and lockdowns and masks and capitalistic vitamin health improvement pills suckers buy and absolutely-everything-possible-except-losing-weight. If I may give my personal experience I noticed my landlord, before 2020, was in charge of managing his clients, went out to walk every day. And after 2020 lockdowns his wife was managing everything and he was barely standing, with a stick. I think he is recovering he is walking faster than a turtle now. I thought he was about to die, these covid "saving lives" policies really hit him. That's the only old person I know (and I haven't gotten anywhere close to him, self distancing), otherwise I haven't gotten sick in 5 years and if the media didn't tell me I wouldn't even know this virus existed. Living among us there are millions of terrified, isolated old childless boomers that never go out I don't even know exist - other than from statistics. Just rotting in their houses, waiting to die, right under my nose. A bit crazy to think of. Bruh I just thought... maybe there are some thousands of houses with dead people in them right now. Did anyone check? Damn. The WSJ is suggesting the reason for this virus still being so relatively deadly is lower-than-expected immunization rates as well as fatigue with precautionary measures like masks. Interesting because a few days ago France PM caught covid and seems he gave it to other members of the government, after he was seen not wearing a mask and touching everywhere with his hands. He is getting roasted a lot. www.wsj.com
by MrRenev
2
The Road To Normalcy Begins (06 November 2021)Fed starts tapering! The long-awaited taper meeting has finally arrived! The Federal Reserve announced during their monetary policy meeting on Thursday that it will begin slowing down its net asset purchases by $15 billion per month which comprises of $10 billion Treasury bonds and $5 billion agency mortgage-backed securities. The first round of tapering will begin later this month and the second round will take place at the beginning of December. Moving forward, the monthly pace of quantitative easing (QE) tapering will be similar to these two months and may be adjusted depending on the economic outlook. Regardless of the pace, the Fed is expecting QE to end by mid-2022. The following illustration shows that under the same tapering pace, QE will end in June 2022. Nov 2021: $70b Treasury Bonds + $35b Agency MBS Dec 2021: $60b Treasury Bonds + $30b Agency MBS Jan 2022: $50b Treasury Bonds + $25b Agency MBS Feb 2022: $40b Treasury Bonds + $20b Agency MBS Mar 2022: $30b Treasury Bonds + $15b Agency MBS Apr 2022: $20b Treasury Bonds + $10b Agency MBS May 2022: $10b Treasury Bonds + $5b Agency MBS Jun 2022: End of QE A small step back on “transitory” With the recent comment made by Fed Chairman Powell that supply bottlenecks will take longer to ease, thus expecting prices to remain high for a longer period of time, the Fed has taken a small step back from its view on inflation being transitory. The previous confidence that the elevated inflation “largely reflecting transitory factors” has now been revised to “largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory”. During the press conference, Powell also clarified the definition of “transitory” that the central bank adopts after highlighting that the word has different understanding to different people. For the Fed, “if something is transitory it will not leave behind permanently – or very persistently higher – inflation”. With the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the central bank Chief is expecting inflation to continue its rise into 2022 before easing back down during mid-2022. Maximum employment still quite a distance away Although tapering of the massive $120 billion per month QE programme has begun, Powell warned that the Fed’s decision to do so does not imply a rate hike is underway. The central bank held its interest rate unchanged at the targeted range of 0-0.25% and would like to see the labour market achieve maximum employment before considering a hike. As of the October’s jobs report, the U.S. job market is still some 5 million jobs away from the pre-pandemic level. The Fed is likely going to consider a rate hike only when the jobs lost during the pandemic have been fully recovered. Even so, the central bank may wait a little longer to be certain that jobs growth is indeed consistent before committing.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
3
A Rate Hike Before 2024? (04 November 2021)The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) concluded its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday with no change in its weekly A$4 billion bond purchases, aka quantitative easing (QE), while holding interest rate unchanged at 0.10%. What has changed during this meeting is the ending of the central bank’s yield curve control (YCC). Dropping the YCC It all began when the RBA carried out an unscheduled purchase of A$1 billion of April 2024 Australian government bond back in 22 October in an attempt to tame the rising yield, bringing it back down to the central bank’s 0.10% target. Towards the end of October, yield on the April 2024 bond sky-rocketed to 0.75%, the biggest monthly increase since 1994. This time round however, the RBA did not attempt to bring down the yield to its target through any purchase of bonds, leaving the market to speculate that the RBA may be discontinuing its YCC during its November meeting. The decision to end the YCC “reflects the improvement in the economy and the earlier-than-expected progress towards the inflation target” as explained in the rate statement. With the rise of interest rates from other markets, the central bank felt that the efficacy of the YCC has vanished. An earlier rate hike timeline The RBA has repeatedly emphasized that an interest rate hike will be considered only when inflation is sustainably achieved within its 2-3% target. Prior to the November’s meeting, the central bank forecasts that this condition “will not be met before 2024”. However, it has revised this forecast somewhat optimistically in yesterday’s statement, indicating that: “The Board is prepared to be patient, with the central forecast being for underlying inflation to be no higher than 2½ per cent at the end of 2023 and for only a gradual increase in wages growth.” With this revision, the RBA is now implying the possibility of inflation coming into the 2-3% targeted range at the end of 2023. This means it is fair game for the central bank to carry forward its rate hike timeline. Overall positive economic projections The RBA’s quarterly economic projections for 2022 and 2023 have underwent positive revisions. Specifically, inflation projection has been revised upwards which is good as it is the main deciding factor of a rate hike from the central bank. The RBA now expects inflation to fall within their 2-3% target for 2022 and 2023. For year 2022, GDP: 5.50% (a little over 4.00%) Unemployment: 4.25% (4.25%) CPI Inflation: 2.25% (1.75%) For year 2023, GDP: 2.50% (2.50%) Unemployment: 4.00% (4.00%) CPI Inflation: 2.50% (2.25%) *Figures shown in parentheses refers to projections from August 2021
by GH_Lee
2
Double Hawkish Tone From The BOC (28 October 2021)QE has ended. During the monetary policy meeting yesterday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) carried out a hawkish move. The initial expectation from the market was for the central bank to taper its quantitative easing (QE) from C$2 billion per week to C$1 billion per week. However, the BoC surprised the market by bringing its QE to a halt. Rate hike timeline carried forward. Back in September’s meeting, the BoC mentioned in the rate statement that interest rate will be held at its current level until its 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved. The central bank projected this target to be met during the second half of 2022. However, in the released rate statement yesterday, the BoC revised its projection and is now expecting the target to be met in the middle quarters of 2022. This directly translates to an earlier timeline for the central bank to hike interest rate. Quarterly economic projections. The BoC revised its economic growth projections for 2021 and 2022 downwards while revising upwards for 2023. The downwards revision comes as the central bank is expecting global supply chain disruptions and shipping bottlenecks to carry on into next year, having a negative impact on economic growth. As for inflation, the BoC revised its projections upwards for all three years, explaining that higher energy prices and supply bottlenecks are now “stronger and more persistent then expected”. Hence, the central bank is expecting inflation to be elevated into 2022. For year 2021, GDP: 5.1% (6.0%) CPI Inflation: 3.4% (3.0%) For year 2022, GDP: 4.3% (4.6%) CPI Inflation: 3.4% (2.4%) For year 2023, GDP: 3.7% (3.3%) CPI Inflation: 2.3% (2.2%) *Figures shown in parentheses refers to projections from July 2021 What’s next for the BoC? With the conclusion of QE, the BoC is now moving into the reinvestment phase. In this phase, the central bank will offset bonds maturities by purchasing new bonds to replace those that are maturing in order to maintain the overall bond holdings at around the same level. The targeted range of purchase will be from C$4 billion to C$5 billion per month. With that, the duration of the reinvestment phase has become a future monetary policy decision and will depend on the economic recovery and how inflation plays out in the future.
by GH_Lee
SPX: Market MoversGood morning everyone, Below is a list of some of the events that have most influenced the movements of the American stock index from the beginning of the Pandemic to today. The same events can also be used to accompany the movements of other indices to study their effects. Apart from some unforeseen events, everything revolves around and is supported by what is decided by US policy in Congress and by the Federal Reserve. The factors that worry the markets most are the uncertainties about the fiscal and monetary policies of the main western economy. 1) March 6: US Congress approve $8.3 billion Emergency Coronavirus Spending Package ; 2) March 15: FED announce approximately $700 billion in new quantitative easing (QE); 3) March 18: US Congress approve $192 billion Coronavirus Emergency Aid Package ; 4) March 23: FED announce “unlimited” quantitative easing (QE); 5) March 25: US Congress approve $2.2 trillion CARES Act ; 5a) April 8: Biden became the presumptive nominee after Sanders, the only other candidate remaining, withdrew from the race; 6) April 28-29: FOMC Meeting; 6a) May 8: The national unemployment level reaches 14.7%, with more than 33 million jobless claims having been filed since mid-March; 7) May 25: George Floyd protests; 7a) June 5: Biden surpasses the required 1,991 delegates to win the Democratic nomination; 8) June 9-10: FOMC Meeting; 9) July 28-29: FOMC Meeting; 9a) August 11: Biden announced that former presidential candidate Senator Kamala Harris would be his running mate; 9b) August 17-20: Democratic National Convention; 10) August 27: FOMC Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy; 11) August 31: Softbank; 12) September 14-15: FOMC Meeting; 13) November 3: US Presidential Election; BUILD BACK BETTER AGENDA; 14) November 4-5: FOMC Meeting; 14a) November 9-16: End Phase III vaccines Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca; 15) December 15-16: FOMC Meeting; 16) December 21: US Congress approve $900 billion in relief (Consolidated Appropriations Act); 16a) January 6-7: United States Capitol attack; 17) January 14: first proposed $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act of 2021; 18) January 26-27: FOMC Meeting; GameStop short squeeze begun; 19) February 2: Democrats in the United States Senate started to open debates on a budget resolution that would allow them to pass the stimulus package without support from Republicans through the process of reconciliation; 19a) February 9: Second impeachment trial of Donald Trump begins; 19b) February 13: Trump is acquitted; 20) March 4: The Senate takes up debate on the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021; 20a) March 11: US Congress approve $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act of 2021; 21) March 16-17: FOMC Meeting; 22) April 27-28: FOMC Meeting; 23) May 7: Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack; 24) May 10: Israel-Palestine Conflict Intensify; 25) June 8: US Congress pass The United States Innovation and Competition Act of 2021 (USICA), $110 billion; 26) June 11-13: G7 Summit; 27) June 15-16: FOMC Meeting; 28) July 14: retreat from Afghanistan; 29) July 27-28: FOMC Meeting; 30) August 10: Senate passes $1.2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill; 31) August 31: Evergrande; 32) September 21-22: FOMC Meeting; 33) October 30-31: G20 Summit; 34) October 6: Congress Passes Bill To Raise Debt Limit By $480 Billion; Hope the above is of interest but if you have any queries please do not hesitate to ask. Good luck everybody! Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by cozzamara
GBPUSD continues to show StrengthGBP began clawing back its losses from FOMC week as a silver lining appears to show through its Monetary Policy announcement. 1 more vote has joined Michael Saunders in beginning the asset tapering for Great Britain and this wasn't much of a surprise after seeing GBP smash its CPI Y.Y from last year's 2% to what it is now 3.2%. The market has seen this as a positive outcome and has given GBP a chance to recontinue its trending upwards structure after consolidating above 1.37200. My idea is to Buy GU @ 1.37000 SL 1.36880 TP 1.37665 R:R 1:5.6 Confluence details: 1. Bounce off-key level at 1.37000 2. 0.382 fib retracement level 3. fib extension 1.414 confluence 4. Bullish fakeout pattern + Consolidation above 1.37215 shows strength in the market 5. D1 Previous structural levels indicate similar pattern Price pullback to 1.37000 for further liquidity before moving upwards. 6. D1, H4 & H1 candlestick anatomy shows the probability for GBP to continue trending up is high. 7. Pullback to 1.37000 confirms a LH for a 3-leg extension to occur Please Note: I will be waiting for pullback to complete and a momentum switch to occur on M5 timeframe before entering a buy position at this level. Let's see if we can finish off the week strong with GBP reaffirming its bull run!
Long
by Altconomist
DAILY MARKET BRIEFING; EUR/USD ANALYSISDAILY MARKET BRIEFING; EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS September 23/2021 The EUR/USD had a complete move towards the August 23rd lowest support area as negative economy reports blazed from the side of the EURO zone earlier in the last trading hours. It was not long ago when the expected interest rate hikes took charge of the market sentiment. Yet, the government speeches at the FOMC reassured the expectation of the market participants to come to a hawkish fed monetary policy, conclusion. While on the negative side of the EURO report from the fundamental economy update claims that The German manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) had an expansion in a report of 58.5 although the previous reading of the PMI data was at 62.5 economic analysts predicted a forecast of 61.5. The German services PMI also fell from a previous reading of 60.8 to 56.0. Also, The European service PMI went negative. According to an economy report from Reuters, The dollar chop down across the board on Thursday as enhanced risk emotion in global financial markets wiped out its gains in the previous day after the U.S. Federal Reserve flagged plans to dial back its stimulus this year. Trading recommendations, in general, the market tends to have a bullish trading bias hence the further movement of price to the upside could be welcome in the market To prevent yourself from suspicious brokers I choose WikiFx to research brokers:
Long
by Theexcelentrepreneur
Is the wedge pattern real in Australia?In this post, we will analyze the principles and features of the AUD / USD currency pair and identify the points and signs of buying and selling. Basics Minutes of the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting were held at 6 am Iranian time today. The following is a summary of this meeting. The meeting discussed the slowdown in Australia's economic growth compared to other countries in the world. Comments were also made on the effectiveness of vaccination and the limitations of Covid 19 in preventing further outbreaks. It was decided not to increase bank interest rates until 2024 Unemployment is falling in developed countries and labor demand is so high that wages have risen, members said. They are going to continue to buy bonds. The Bank of Australia bond-buying program is also expanding faster than the securities of many central banks. Members also stressed the importance of maintaining lending standards. They found that the Delta outbreak delayed recovery and increased uncertainty about the future. Technically The AUD / USD hit a low of 0.71 on 20 August 2021 and a high of 0.748 on 3 September. Prices have been on a downward channel since September 3. Within 15 minutes, we see the formation of a corner pattern. The best time to enter trades is when signs of a downturn are seen in the market. Key points If the corner pattern matches the image: First T / P = 0.7255 Second T / P = 0.724 If it is contrary to the pattern of the image, it means that the triangle is broken upwards: First T / P = 0.7285 Second T / P 0.73 =
Short
by mohamadrezaKhorsand
1
After all, should we invest in gold?!after retesting the lowest low in the last three months on 9th August, the price is in an uptrend. On 3rd September the gold price couldn’t break the familiar resistance of Senkou Span B at 1834.14. personally, I would not consider trading as long as the gold price is in the Ichimoku cloud. I consider 1756.06 as the next strong support for the gold price in short term as concerns over Fed talking is rising and investors are worried about the next move of Fed in the upcoming meetings. The price at the level of 1845 can be considered critical as well, if we see a successful break out from this level, we will have a long-term bullish market. Check my gold fundamental analysis at the following link in comment
OANDA:XAUUSD
by shahrzadtarrahi
It’s Recalibration, Not Tapering (10 September 2021)The ECB’s decision. The European Central Bank (ECB) held its interest rates unchanged during their monetary policy meeting yesterday. Main Refinancing Operations Rate: 0.00% Marginal Lending Facility Rate: 0.25% Deposit Facility Rate: -0.50% The size of its quantitative easing (QE) programmes remains unchanged as well. Asset Purchase Programme (APP): €20 billion per month Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP): €1,850 billion in total On top of that, the central bank has opted for a reduction of pace in its assets purchase under the PEPP but did not provide more details on the amount. At the moment, €80 billion worth of assets are being purchased on a monthly basis. It’s recalibration, not tapering. Just when the market is trying to figure out from the monetary policy statement if the ECB has just carried out a QE tapering, the central bank’s President Christine Lagarde elucidated that the reduction of the pace is not a tapering, but a recalibration. The ECB’s decision “is to calibrate the pace of our purchases in order to deliver on our goal of favourable financing conditions”. President Lagarde’s comment left the market wondering how significant is such an action carried out by the central bank going to have on QE if it is not considered as tapering. As a result, the euro was moving in an unclear direction. Positive inflation projections. Although the ECB’s action is likely going to spark some discussions over its ambiguity, one thing we know for sure is that the central bank is feeling confident in the recent rise in inflation in the eurozone. As released in the quarterly projection materials, overall inflation forecasts have been revised upwards. Inflation Projections: 2021: revised upwards from previous 1.9% to 2.2% 2022: revised upwards from previous 1.5% to 1.7% 2023: revised upwards from previous 1.4% to 1.5%
by GH_Lee
Dovish Tapering Locks In QE (08 September 2021)The dovish tapering decision. During its monetary policy decision yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate unchanged at 0.10%. As promised, the central bank proceeded with its quantitative easing (QE) tapering plan announced back in the July’s meeting. What came as a surprise is the duration of the new round of QE. Previously, the RBA opted for a two-month QE duration. But during the announcement yesterday, the central bank decided to extend the duration by five months instead. Thus, the tapered A$4 billion QE will run from September until at least February 2022. As a result, the Australian dollar strengthened for a brief period of time before weakening across the board, reflecting the dovishness as a result of the extension of the QE duration. Delta variant still a concern to the RBA. Despite RBA Governor Lowe saying previously that fiscal policy will prove to be more effective than monetary policy in providing aid at the moment, this does not deter the central bank from making a more cautious decision. As explained in the rate statement, the RBA’s decision to extend the QE duration “reflects the delay in the economic recovery and the increased uncertainty associated with the Delta outbreak”. Rate hike remains out of sight. As with the previous meetings, the RBA continues to reiterate that its cash rate will not be increased until inflation falls within the 2-3% target range and this condition will not be met before 2024 based on their current projection.
by GH_Lee
RBA to Catalyse a New Correction on AUDUSD At its monetary policy meeting from earlier today, the RBA observed worsening growth prospects in Australia due to the Delta variant. These muted forecasts for Q3 are likely to prompt a correction on AUDUSD's uptrend. The uptrend continues to be active, as underpinned by the ADX indicator, which has been threading above the 25-point threshold for quite a while. However, the crossover on the MACD implies the resurgence of bearish momentum in the short term. Meanwhile, the emergence of a Hanging Man candle from the upper limit of the ascending channel means that the correction may have already started. The price action is likely to drop to either the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 0.73907 or the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci at 0.73364 before bulls can regain control.
Short
by Trendsharks
USDCAD Testing the Previous Swing Peak The price action of the USDCAD pair is currently nearing the last swing peak at 1.28000 (the Distribution area in red). If it manages to penetrate above it, the price would then likely head towards the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level at 1.29054. The dollar strengthening in the short term is owing to investors and traders' expectations of FED tapering. Notice that the current uptrend commenced following a breakout above the Pennant pattern. Bears can look for an opportunity to sell around 1.29054 on the expectation for a minor correction. The price action could then fall to the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.26191.
Short
by Trendsharks
1
U-Turn In Rate Hike Decision (18 August 2021)The last-minute decision. During their monetary policy meeting earlier today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) carried out a last-minute change in decision, holding its overnight cash rate unchanged at 0.25%. New COVID case in six months thwarted RBNZ’s rate hike plan. Just yesterday, the first local COVID case was reported in New Zealand in six months. As a result, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a nationwide level-four lockdown with immediate effect. Prior to this new COVID case, the RBNZ was expected to announce a rate hike during today’s meeting as the country’s economic recovery has been robust and the economy is starting to overheat. In the released rate statement, the central bank mentioned that the “ Committee discussed the merits of an increase in the OCR at this meeting and considered the implications of alternative sequencing of OCR changes over time ”. However, with what went down yesterday, the central bank decided to put on hold their rate hike decision, highlighting in the rate statement that the “ decision was made in the context of the Government’s imposition of Level 4 COVID restrictions on activity across New Zealand ”. A delay rather than a setback. New Zealand’s “go hard, go early” approach to the containment of the pandemic has been highly effective as is evident from being one of the first few countries to declare COVID-19 free. With the country’s snap lockdown and effective approach, it is possible that the spread of the virus will be contained within a short period of time and is unlikely going to pose a setback to the country. Moreover, the RBNZ has carried forward their expectation of a rate hike from September 2022 to this coming December as indicated in the quarterly monetary policy statement, delivering a hawkish tone. To conclude, this sudden turn of events is unlikely going to hold the New Zealand economy down for long. As the next monetary policy meeting will be held on 6 October, this will give the central bank sufficient time to make a hawkish return, with the condition that the virus is once again contained swiftly.
by GH_Lee
USDOLLAR Weekly Chart Trends Up As Market Anticpates TaperingThe above chart show’s FXCM’s USDOLLAR index on a weekly time scale and is reflective of the primary trend. Longer-term charts tend to align with the underlying fundamentals and here we can see a higher trough followed by a higher peak – the technical definition of an uptrend. The greenback is trending up as market participants start anticipating the tapering of Fed expansion. In this regard. last Friday’s NFP was a good number and the USD responded. The Fed is likely waiting for another NFP print before any policy change as last month’s number did not fully factor in the current wave of Covid-19 sweeping through the US, and which doesn’t seem to have peaked yet. We note that price never moves in a straight line and if the uptrend continues we will be monitoring for evidence of a zig-zag structure similar to the dashed red lines.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by FXCM
2
QE Tapering Plan Will Go On (06 August 2021)Three days ago, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a little surprise when it decided to stick with its quantitative easing (QE) plan announced back in July despite the recent spike in COVID cases in Australia. (Refer to my post "RBA Sticks With QE Tapering Plan (04 August 2021)" on RBA monetary policy) Details on why the central bank decides to proceed with its decision on QE tapering were provided during Governor Lowe testimony earlier today. Lowe’s Testimony During his testimony before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Governor Lowe said that the RBA has considered holding back its plan for QE tapering during the monetary policy meeting. However, the central bank’s positive projections on the economic growth for 2022 permitted the plan to continue. Lowe explained that “any additional bond purchases would have their maximum effect at that time and only a very small effect right now when the extra support is needed most.” Furthermore, he mentioned the RBA felt that fiscal policy would be more appropriate than monetary policy in terms of providing aid at the moment. Nonetheless, the flexible approach of its QE programme allows the central bank to make adjustments to the rate of bond purchases in response to any unexpected turn of events. On the subject of the RBA cash rate, Lowe highlighted that the central bank will not be increasing cash rate until inflation is sustainably in the 2-3% range. He emphasised that the RBA needs to be confident that inflation will remain within the targeted range before any rate hike is considered. Finally, Lowe said that the condition for a rate hike “is not expected to be met before 2024”. RBA economic projections. For year 2021, Australian GDP: 4.00 (4.75) CPI Inflation: 2.50 (1.75) Unemployment Rate: 5.00 (5.00) For year 2022, Australian GDP: 4.25 (3.50) CPI Inflation: 1.75 (1.50) Unemployment Rate: 4.25 (4.50) For year 2023, Australian GDP: 2.50 (N/A) CPI Inflation: 2.25 (N/A) Unemployment Rate: 4.00 (N/A) *Figures shown in parentheses refers to projections from May 2021
by GH_Lee
No Signs Of QE Tapering From The BoE Yet (06 August 2021)The BoE’s decision. As widely expected, the Bank of England (BoE) carried out no change to its monetary policy during its meeting yesterday. Interest rate remains at 0.10% with all eight voting committee members voting for no change. Quantitative easing (QE) remains at £895 billion in total. Michael Saunders, one of the hawks of BoE, voted for a reduction in government bonds purchase by £45 billion. Overall positive outlook of the UK economy in the near future. In the quarterly release of the BoE’s monetary policy report, the central bank said that the “impact of COVID on the UK economy fades further over time” although the Delta variant of the virus continues to spread in the UK. The confidence on the economic recovery led to the central bank’s positive revision of its economic projections. Economic Projections: For year 2021, UK GDP: 7.25 (7.25) CPI Inflation: 4.00 (2.50) Unemployment Rate: 4.75 (5.00) For year 2022, UK GDP: 6.00 (5.75) CPI Inflation: 4.00 (2.50) Unemployment Rate: 4.75 (5.00) For year 2023, UK GDP: 1.50 (1.25) CPI Inflation: 2.00 (2.00) Unemployment Rate: 4.25 (4.25) *Figures shown in parentheses refers to projections from May 2021 The BoE expects the UK economy to return to pre-pandemic level during the fourth quarter of 2021. As with the other major central banks, the BoE also felt that the recent rise in inflation is due to transitory factors. With the ceasing of the UK furlough scheme at the end of September, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted that unemployment was “no longer expected to rise”. He also mentioned that the challenge for the economy now is whether employers can fill up the job vacancies. On the matter of QE. Little was mentioned on QE during this meeting. The BoE said towards the end of its rate statement that “should the economy evolve broadly in line with the central projections in the August Monetary Policy Report, some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary to be consistent with meeting the inflation target sustainably in the medium term”. The committee members also intend to start unloading the bond purchased by the central bank when interest rate has risen to 0.5% and will consider to do so actively when interest rate is at least 1%. According to the BoE, interest rate is projected to be at 0.5% by the third quarter of 2024. Hence, it is likely that the central bank will be holding on to its purchases at least in the near future. Interest Rate Projection: 2022 Q3: 0.2% 2023 Q3: 0.4% 2024 Q3: 0.5%
by GH_Lee
RBA Sticks With QE Tapering Plan (04 August 2021)The RBA’s decision. During their monetary policy meeting yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its monetary policy unchanged, holding interest rate at 0.10% and quantitative easing (QE) at a rate of A$5 billion per week. A little surprise. With the recent spike in COVID cases in Australia due to the highly contagious Delta variant, the market was anticipating the RBA to announce the holding back of their QE tapering plan that was made during the previous meeting. However, the central bank stuck to its tapering plan of A$4 billion per week that will run from early September to at least mid-November. RBA downplayed impact of virus outbreaks on economic recovery. Although the RBA decided to stick with its QE tapering plan, it did acknowledge that the recent virus outbreaks are “interrupting the recovery and GDP is expected to decline in the September quarter”. Nonetheless, the central bank is confident that the Australian economy will rebound quickly after getting hit by the outbreaks as justified by previous occurrences. Impact on the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar strengthened as a result of the RBA sticking with their QE tapering plan.
by GH_Lee
EURUSD Continues to Strengthen Following the FED Meeting The recent breakout of the EURUSD above the descending channel was bolstered yesterday following the July policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell and his colleagues from the FOMC did not bring anything new to the table, which weakened the greenback in the short term. The price action is currently probing the 200-day MA (in purple). The next closest resistance can be found at the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.18892.
by Trendsharks
FED: Recovery Heading Towards The Right Direction (29 July 2021)The Fed’s decision. The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered no surprise during their monetary policy meeting earlier today as widely expected. The Federal Funds Rate was held unchanged at the target range of 0-0.25% while quantitative easing remains at $120 billion per month ($80 billion of Treasury securities and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities). Optimistic tone on U.S. economic recovery in the rate statement. Although no actions were carried out, the Fed did expressed signs of optimism on the U.S. economic recovery in the interest rate statement. The following changes made in the statement indicate so. The sentence: “Amid this progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened.” has been revised to: “With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen.” The change indicates continued recovery in economic activities and employment. The sentence: “The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement.” has been revised to: “The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered.” The change indicates that the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved since the previous meeting. The sentence: “Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.” has been added into the latest statement, indicating optimism in the economic recovery. Progress made in economic recovery but still far from full recovery. Despite the optimistic tone sent out by the Fed, the central bank’s Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned during the press conference that the economy is still a distance away from making “substantial further progress” towards the Fed’s goals of maximum employment and price stability. This does not come as a surprise since the U.S. job market is still around 6.3 million jobs away from the pre-pandemic level. Furthermore, Powell highlighted that inflation is expected to remain above the central bank’s target in the upcoming months but not sufficient to trigger a change in monetary policy. On the issue of the recent rise in COVID cases due to the Delta variant, Powell downplayed the negative impact it has on the U.S. economic recovery. He said: “With successive waves of Covid over the past year and some months now, there has tended to be...less in the way of economic implications from each wave, and we will see whether that is the case with the Delta variety,” expressing confidence that the handling of the Delta variant will be more effective than handling COVID-19 when it was first declared a pandemic. Impact on the market. The upbeat tone delivered by the Fed resulted in the market going risk-on, increasing the demand for risky assets and currencies. Thus, the safe haven U.S. dollar weakened against the other major currencies.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
ECB Meeting And Its New Inflation Target (23 July 2021)New monetary policy strategy. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank (ECB) reconvened its policy review that was postponed since last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. During the review, the central bank revised its current goal of achieving an inflation level of “below, but close to 2%” to the new goal of achieving 2% inflation with overshoots allowed. This new inflation target is symmetric, meaning to say that inflation falling below or rising above the 2% target are both equally undesirable. However, knowing that it is unlikely inflation will be constantly maintained at the 2% target, slight deviation from 2% temporarily is still acceptable by the ECB. But if inflation were to deviate from that target by a significant amount for a sustained period of time, the central bank will carry out the necessary actions to address it. Revised forward guidance. During the monetary policy meeting yesterday, the ECB held its interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) unchanged. The central bank’s President Christine Lagarde said that no discussion on quantitative easing was carried out. In response to the newly adopted inflation target, the ECB has revised its forward guidance on interest rates. “In support of its symmetric two per cent inflation target and in line with its monetary policy strategy, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching two per cent well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at two per cent over the medium term. This may also imply a transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target.” Simply put, the central bank will consider an interest rate hike only when inflation is seen to be reaching the 2% target way before the end of its projection horizon and is deemed to sustain for the rest of the projection horizon. Based on the ECB’s economic projection material, the projection horizon is defined to be three years. With the revised forward guidance, the ECB is now seen to be more accommodative for a longer duration. Looking at the ECB’s quarterly economic projections released in June, Inflation Forecast 2021: 1.9% 2022: 1.5% 2023: 1.4% we can see that the central bank’s inflation expectation is still quite a distance from 2%. During the press conference, Lagarde also highlighted that the ECB is expecting “inflation to rise over the medium term” although it is still below the 2% target, while “longer term inflation expectations have increased” but are some distance away from the target. Lagarde also mentioned that the recent rise in inflation in the eurozone is largely due to temporary drivers such as higher energy prices and base effects from the strong decline in oil prices. With the persistently low inflation in the eurozone, it is unlikely the ECB will carry out a rate hike in the near future.
by GH_Lee