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Monetarypolicy

Economic, geopolitic, monetary news. Issue No 2.The second release is here! I think I am going to do this regularly, as I learn more I'm writting down a list and I release an idea with around 5 ... how to call them ... you know, the thing ;) at once. The format is I separate each you know the thing in its own paragraph, I write a small bloc, and I leave a screenshot with a summary and some comments at the end. So if there is too much text you can skip to the screenshot. This is the format, I can't do better than this, I don't really want to leave trading view. It's sort of the same magazines do, except they have a couple of screenshots and can highlight pieces of text, when it's in bold and between paragraphs and a different color and big I don't know the name of this, you know, the thing. I promise in those ideas I will always put truth before fact. 1- CEO of Blackrock Larry Fink very negative view *********************** Blackrock is the mega multi trillion AUM institution. They write guidance letters to CEOs of the world. I think they are one of the grey intermediaries between the FED and the Government facilitating monetizing the debt and enriching themselves on the back of the public including the poor and including the rich. Well I don't think they are, they are it's official. The non official part is the "steal the public purchasing power" part. Larry in a private exchange with his investors from a few weeks ago, according to Bloomberg has been warning about high tax rates, of mass bankruptcies, he expects 25% of the 30 million small US businesses that have been having a hard time getting relief to close permanently by the end of the year. I saw somewhere that over 50% of business expected to go bankrupt (doesn't mean they close permanently), and some were too broke to go bankrupt! Larry, which is jewish, and has been enriching himself while the 90% was getting poorer - arguably at their expense via the government-fed scam and advising CEOs to do buybacks -, has voiced concerns on a rise of nationalism. Can't make that up. Ah Finky. Hitler all over again, I've been predicting this for years. Look how the nationalist side (Trump) is going full socialism "emergency free stuff" now. What is Nationalism + Socialism? My best guess is WW3 starts with the USA invading the middle east, and an iranian russian and eventually chinese retaliation. I think WW3 probably won't start but who knows what direction it all can go. Antisemitism has been on the rise, the media hasn't covered it because perpetrators were most of the time black, but it's here and growing. Same old, same old. 2- Venezuela sues the BOE for gold! *********************** Maduro, following Chávez policies and the situation he inherited, has ran out of his own people wealth to steal to pay for the extremely popular "free stuff" they got between 2003 (start of the Bolivarian missions) and 2010. They paid their "free stuff" ten fold and now have nothing left. "Just taxing the rich because they have a magical horn of plenty" hasn't worked out mysteriously. I'm making an idea about Venezuela to explain this soon. It will sound extremely similar to the USA and it's normal. So now that Maduro ran out of all the wealth in the country, he is turning to other countries to steal wealth from. Some say you should not laugh at others pain, but they brought this on themselves. They were dancing around in joy 10 years ago and ignoring "pessimistic perma bears". There is a quote, I think it started in France after the revolution "If you have never been a socialist by 22 you have no heart. If you still are a socialist after 28 you have no head.". In germany less than 23% of the population is under 25 and 22% are over 65, in Venezuela in 2001 37% were under 15 (not 25, 15) less than 4% were over 65, and an estimate has their 2011 population at 29% under 15, and 27% between 15 and 29 years old! So they have this excuse. What british gold? They have almost no reserves left since the genius politician Gordon Brown sold at the very bottom in 1999-2002. Maduro wants 80 tons of gold, the opposition asks britain not to release it. BOE does not recognize Maduro government. I said britain bank had no gold but the truth is they are the second biggest holder (after the New York FED that stole it in 1971), it's just that it's not theirs. According the the BOE site they hold 400,000 bars. $200 billion. Trillions are stored in fort knox. In 2017 Germany has brought home hundreds of tons from the NY FED & Banque de France back to their own vaults. So who owns what who holds what I'm not sure here. Do note that Venezuela asked for GOLD. Not ponzi schemes. Not US DOLLARS. Not Bitcoin. Not petrocoins. GOLD. 3- Fed extraordinary amount of uncertainty and considerable risks *********************** Minutes from the 28-29 April meeting have finally been released at www.federalreserve.gov (Released May 20, 2020) "In light of the significant uncertainty and downside risks associated with the evolution of the coronavirus outbreak, how much the economy would weaken, and how long it would take to recover, the staff judged that a more pessimistic projection was no less plausible than the baseline forecast." "Participants commented that, in addition to weighing heavily on economic activity in the near term, the economic effects of the pandemic created an extraordinary amount of uncertainty and considerable risks to economic activity in the medium term." "an array of remaining risks, including those in corporate credit markets, emerging markets, and mortgage markets. In corporate credit markets, concerns about potential defaults were rising, and ratings agencies had put on negative watch or downgraded many issuers. In emerging markets, the steep decline in commodity prices was exacerbating financial pressures for some emerging market economies (EMEs), which were also facing strains arising from capital outflows and a reduction in trade activity. And in mortgage markets, the likely increase in mortgage delinquencies associated with forbearance polices and an eventual rise in defaults were sources of concern for bank and nonbank lenders." No wonder they waited so long to release it. They're always ridiculously positive. It's just pages and pages of what some might call negativity and pessimism, what I'd call reality in the current situation. They are going for "whatever it takes" (so Venezuela & Weimar republic), and are looking at non conventional "solutions" (so even worse than Weimar & Venezuela). Elon Musk explained it "to all the fools out there" (nice as he's getting pissed he drops the mask and acts direspectful I am so proud): "If no one makes stuff there is no stuff. You can't legislate stuff into existence" or something like that. They're going to absolutely destroy the USA. These politicians, I swear. If we survive that will offer us very cheap foreign stocks in an extremely pessimistic world, all good. If we survive. 4- The USA have not had inflation yet. Because the "free money" has not yet been spent! *********************** The Treasury Department has distributed less than 8% (37.5) of the $500 billion they unlocked for bailing out businesses. It's anyones guess what politicians will do with all that imaginary money next. Americans savings 1-2 months ago skyrocketed to their highest level since 1981 (and they were at their lowest before that!). It's a march observation, I speculate that this number went up, and most of their free checks when possible has gone to a savings account. fred.stlouisfed.org Even with foreign nations dropping the usd, unless they dump it all at once, the money bazooka of the government + fed will not affect the public if that money is not spent (this includes the local bank lending some of the savings). The natural and best thing people would make is save ahead of tough times. For once they are right. Now for some reason (low IQ), the powers that be want to fight deflation. Ye man, people saving money and prices going down is bad! We want the public to not be able to afford a bag of potatoes and starve! That way they HAVE to work for us and sell their bodies and souls. 5- French central bank project uses blockchain *********************** My last job was working for french bank Societe Generale. I quit in 2018. Every one was so obsessed with Bitcoin & Ripple. We were getting internal communications from the directors that "crypto was the future", "the blockchain was wonderful". I had to quit. I could not keep working for these idiots 🙂 Oh by the way Societe General is the bank that gambled and lost 5 billions with trader Jerome Kerviel years ago. They were overly obsessed with security and checking what every one was doing when I was there lol. So go figure, the banque de France & socgen have been playing with crypto. Using a central bank digital currency (CBDC) the socgen issued 40 million euros worth of bonds in the form of tokens on a public blockchain this month. The 14 May. This crypto is a crypto "de gros", they want to use it for big payments. For the dirty plebes down there they'd make a separate crypto. The Banque de France reminds that only the tech changes, and it won't allow them to issue money without creating debt, nor to eliminate the existing debt. Ye, I heard that one before. I think we really need a gold standard. Why would anyone want to let someone control the money supply? Let them do what they want. Maybe they think the population won't notice. But things are going faster. Chavez was old but not that old and died before the people understood they got fleeced. But it only took about 10 years. If they live more than 10 years, their heads could end up on pikes. Their call. 6- UK first ever negative bond, several countries lower their rates, PBOC might monetize the debt *********************** And here it is. For the first time, the UK issued a negative bond. Turkish Central bank drops their rate. Again. South Africa, Lesotho, BOJ, plenty of african countries, ok I'm not making a list, are dropping rates. Economists in China are saying "the PBoC should monetise fiscal deficits". Haha. Sorry for all the bad news, I'm not the one creating them. The positive things are laughing at people that suffer BY THEIR OWN FAULT, and hey when everything crashes we get some very cheap non US companies we can buy. Let the dumb money chase the US bottom. It's not really bad news for traders, we make money regardless of the direction it goes. So whatever not my problem. I can point at it but I can't change the world. I can pretend to be sad & angry to not look heartless, but tbh I don't really care. Even if I really got upset by something, in 5 minutes I'll be loudly laughing at some dumb bagholder or something. The world will always have dumb rules and there will always be people that can adapt to those rules. And the sheep will always lose.
TVC:GOLD
by MrRenev
16
Euro and USD possible collapseEntire countries get fleeced. Trump complained that the USA were the "piggy bank" but his country is running at a huge deficit, and printing money out of thin air to buy REAL stuff. The only constant is the bottom 90% always gets scammed, but how much longer? The 90% can get robbed forever, the problem is - this is verifiable and top economists agree, this is not just me being condescending - economy and finance is too complex for the 90%, there is alot of abstraction, maths, and to make matters worse the trillions the world pays to have (useless) schools are not being used to teach the population about finance, economy, or even more generally REALITY! You can find the latest IMF report here: www.imf.org Some quotes Just another way some european countries get robbed. The major way every one is aware of is west europe taxes ending up in the pockets of east europeans. Something very interesting the the (Frankfurt located) ECB only directive is to "fight inflation" which is a german goal (they got very traumatised in the 1920s and now are obsessed with it), and generally their goals are focussed towards Germany Germany Germany. Plus perhaps sourrounding germanic states Netherlands & of course Austria. The UK never fell for the euro. But France which is the second biggest economy of europe (Italy is a little behind) did. A global currency with separate countries never worked. You'd need a united country. And europe scills agree! They call for a shared language, shared borders, shared laws, and so on. A real federal country just like the USA. I disagree with the EU shills. You'd have to convince every one to speak what? English? Or maybe this can be partially ignored. This is not North America. We can't fuse everything. Plus very large countries tend to do less well and fall apart. They become communist, or some sort of dictatorship, and always fall apart. That's not to say every one must be ultra nationalist and we need 100 small countries in europe. But a unified nation of the entire europe? Lol no. 10 to 200 million seems to be the sweet spot. And if countries werge it will be over time. Here except Germany + Austria, I don't really see who could merge? Spain+France+UK and Bulgaria+Latvia+Croatia in the same country 🤣 Come on. Hey the US at the time of the founding fathers had a population of 4 million, during the golden age had a pop of 150-200 million, and now they're just buying time and collapsing and have 330 million divided people. The country splitting in 2 would mean each half has 100-200 million people. In its glory (50 BC to 150 AD) the roman empire had a population of 40-100 million. The area was huge, very diverse, and kept growing. And it fell apart. I think there's more to it than raw numbers but they play a part I think. If people understood the banking system they would be a revolution before tomorrow morning right. If they understood trade deficits DIRECT effect in their own earnings & savings, if they saw the effect of inflation etc directly in a simple manner, they'd go crazy. There was a planned 2-3% additional tax on fuel in France and yellow vests started a revolution. How much of their money goes in fuel? 20%? They're rioting for what? Losing 1% of their money? LOL! They lose several orders of magnitude more than this in abstract ways they don't understand 😂 Businesses buy and sell at the foreign exchange rate, they're not speculators assessing what is the real value of the currency. Central banks are the ones manipulating their currencies. Once again, a centralised government getting in the way of the free market, of supply and demand laws, and cheating. The only reason this all hasn't crumbled yet is the public ignorance. That's literally the only reason: Too abstract and complex for mainstreet. Even if it gets explained to them they'll come up with a real smart solution such as "it has to be made simpler" ye sure let's return to paleolithic, you first. The big tech monopoly bubble is going to pop. If the USA split, remind me to invest in Texas & short sell California. Comparing the 5 biggest US economies and comparing the 5 biggest Europe economies. European countries are sort of limited, their only solution is to improve tech and emit CO2 to get better yields, the USA have tons of land, and plenty can grow food. The USA are huge, too huge for a single country maybe? The big US states are comparable to european countries. I don't think the USA will just completely explode like the USSR but dividing in 2 or 3 isn't completely crazy. The USA are 3 times bigger than west europe (not counting scandinavia & greenland), the difference is in culture history and language. West europeans are not that different and they're not enemies. Over time it could merge, especially in a big global world, who wants to be small isolated and carry no weight? The price of gold didn't really change till 1913. If it becomes the world currency would the price be fixed? Evolve slowly? Alot will change in the next 10 years. Got my popcorn ready.
by MrRenev
3
The greatest PONZI scheme in historyNever in human history have so many been plundered by so few. And the crowd cheers... "Paper is poverty. It is only the ghost of money, and not money itself." - Thomas Jefferson "In no country of Europe," a delegate noted, "is paper money legal tender, but only gold and silver coin." US constitution section 10 article 1: "No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility." They try to make those that say it is in the constitution that FIAT isn't legally money look like idiots, they call them conspiracy theorists. Isn't that what this article says? Either way, the ponzi scheme - which the US government accounting agency has called unsustainable for decades (every year they publish a report where they say the same thing) - is about to collapse. The scam has been made complex enough so very very few will understand it, and the few that do understand it can be dismissed as "weirdos" and "pariahs", which luckily for the banks is already the case since the smartest people in the world, the 1 in a million are by definition alone misunderstood and appear weird to common folks. I can't explain this perfectly, and the greatest obstacle, the reason why this ponzi scheme has kept running so long is because people are too dumb to understand it, and don't care but they don't care because they don't understand how hard they get scammed. I posted this several times but it's never super clear. I found a clean video where it gets explained quite well, and on top of that he manages to resist the urge to get arrogant or insult the public, which is completely impossible for me. "The Biggest Scam In The History Of Mankind - Hidden Secrets of Money Ep 4" by MIKE MALONEY. And not just for novices, I recommend this to every one that hasn't watched it yet. We really have to get rid of our bank overlords. Here is a list of some countries spending to GDP. France is at the very top of the list of course, they almost make the USA look reasonable. tradingeconomics.com There is a bigger list on wikipedia. Capitalist countries steal the most from their population to "redistribute" (redistribute to the public what they stole from the public one way or another). Socialist countries steal the least from their population to "redistribute". Biggest scam I have ever seen in history. Haha France is the biggest spender but the shithole with the largest deficit is... tada! Venezuela! In 2020 I expect the USA to steal the top spot in both categories from France & Venezuela. The USA have not just robbed their own people, but also the whole world (because the USD is the reserve currency), so that scam is going to collapse too... They have taxed the world for decades, and when that falls alot of indirect income is gone. Which will make the depression much tougher for them. And interest rates are already at zero. It's an absolute catastrophy for this country, they have no way out. It's going to go boom!
Education
by MrRenev
12
This Country’s Stock Market Is Ready To OutperformDiversification is one of the keys to growing and preserving wealth. Putting all of your eggs in one basket (pun intended) can be dangerous. Luckily, diversifying your investment portfolio has never been easier. There are more than 7,000 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide investors with exposure to various markets and asset classes across the globe (international stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, etc.). For investors that want to diversify their stock portfolios outside of the U.S., Japanese (ticker: EWJ) stocks represent an interesting buying opportunity. While stock buybacks have slowed significantly among U.S. corporations in 2020 (down 25%), they’ve surged in Japan, rising 48% this year. Nonfinancial firms have around 285 trillion yen ($2.6 trillion) in currency and deposits (highest level in two decades). Japanese companies have increased their cash stockpile by ~100 trillion yen (33%) over the last decade, suggesting that corporations have plenty of room to continue returning capital to shareholders over the next few years. In addition, the valuation of Japanese stocks is attractive relative to the U.S. The price to earnings ratio on Japanese stocks is ~15x vs. ~17x multiple on U.S. equities. Furthermore, investors are underinvested in Japanese equities. Over the last 5 years, investors have sold ~16 trillion yen worth of Japanese stock, after plowing ~25 trillion yen into Japenese stocks between 2012 and 2015. If (when) investors begin reinvesting funds to the region, Japenese stocks will receive a boost. Japanese companies have increased their profitability. Profits as a percentage of sales have doubled from 4% to 8% over the last five years. More importantly, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is the only developed country central bank that is actively involved in purchasing stocks. The BOJ is a top ten shareholder of more than 50% of publicly traded companies and has no plans of slowing down. In fact, early this month BOJ extended and doubled its purchases of Japanese ETFs- lifting its annual target of 6 trillion yen ($57 billion) to 12 trillion ($114 billion) as part of their aggressive monetary policy. This will continue driving demand (buying) for Japanese equities going forward. Lastly, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recently announced a ~$1 trillion (108 trillion yen) stimulus package. This is equal to 20% of Japan’s national GDP. Compared to the U.S. stimulus package of $2.2 trillion, which equates to only ~10% of GDP. This significant fiscal stimulus will support the Japanese economy as it deals with the coronavirus. Among other things, the government will provide more than $55 billion in cash payments to families and small and medium-sized businesses and $240 billion in interest-free loans. Japanese companies have strong balance sheets and our returning large amounts of capital to shareholders, in addition, Japanese fiscal and monetary is the most aggressive in the world. All of the necessary ingredients for Japanese stocks to move higher are in place. It’s time investors placed their (buy) order. -Appo Agbamu, CFA Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Please do your own research.
AMEX:EWJLong
by AhrvoStockApp
IMPORTANT MESSAGEAfter much deliberation, I adjusted my current market opinion somewhat. Basically, I am still bearish about the current events and get my idea of ​​the last 5th movement in the bearish direction realistic. However, the following scenario should also be kept in mind and not be surprised by certain bullish tendencies: The governments and central banks of the countries or economies will provide any liquidity that is needed. There is no tactic and debt avoidance, like in the financial crisis in 2009 or the Greek crisis in 2012. Therefore, the market itself reacts to negative data with positive price jumps, since it is assumed that further relief measures will be provided. IMPORTANT ! THIS CAN WORK, BUT THE FALL IS ALWAYS ENORMOUS, because when one link gets out of joint, it pulls everyone down. No country is currently allowed to face acute payment difficulties. In addition, it is still possible to argue whether all negative economic effects have already been sufficiently priced into the courses.
AMEX:SPY
by macrolukas
2
Effects of monetary policy & cov19 on the S&P500Last time I covered the S&P we had just agreed to a phase one trade deal after having the prime rate cut 3 times and pumping out $60Billion of new USD every month over the last quarter. I was long all the way to top of the 10 year ascending channel, all the conditions were perfect for a great run for 2020. Then the onset of this Corona Virus showed us just how fragile global markets are right now. The S&P500 was around 3243 when cov19 started hitting the news. We had a reaction pull back followed by a dip buy bounce followed by a hard sell off that resulted in the S&P shedding 500 points dropping from 3400 to 2900 in less than two weeks. We have now broken through the bottom of our 10-year bull trend line. In December 2018 we broke the trend meaningfully when we fell from 2950 to 2350 and 300 points under the bull trendline. That dec18 break was over Chinese American trade war escalations but after a one month free fall, we fully recovered over the next 3 months. If we hold at the same soft bottom we saw in December 2018, we can expect to see the S&P somewhere around 2710. That’s only a couple hundred more points below where we are now. What concerns me is that we are just now seeing deaths in America, we had our first state declare a state of emergency and without a doubt there are 49 more states behind that state that will also likely be calling a state of emergency and bruising the stock market with each announcement. We also know investors have been shrugging off risk for years and may be desensitized and bargain hunting at some point, regardless of the state COV19. I was long when this hit. I had already realized a lot of my gains but was still holding calls that were up as much as 300% that went red within 2-3 days. Luckily I had hedged my holdings with shorts on Apple and small holdings for calls on 3x bear ETF’s. The end result my hedges ended up being worth almost as much as my long holdings were despite being much smaller. My 6 puts on AAPL were up 800%, my other puts up several hundred percent as well. I used the 1000 point DOW bounce days to add to my calls on bear ETF’s but with expiries further out as my last short holdings were April expiry and decay would start effecting profits as we near the month before expiry. Also in reverse I have a few long calls with distant expiry to capture gains in the event cov19 is fully contained tomorrow. I will likely take some portion of my gains from these shorts when we hit that 2710ish mark on the S&P, for good measure. I am converting my gains into REIT holdings because with these rate cuts and a real estate economy that is far from suffering, the REIT’s should dominate, I am doing a separate write up for that. In the meantime, how low this could go is difficult to say, it could manifest into a recession or depression. My approach is not to try to catch a falling knife. If I think we are nearing the bottom, I will start making small purchases on conviction holdings and continue to average down or average up at major support/resistance lines. Something important I have learned is that any major market movement like this is a huge opportunity! You just have to make sure you are on the right side of it at the right time with enough appetite for the risk and of course a little capital. If you are not looking at how you can take advantage of these market movements to make money, you are missing some great opportunity to get ahead, this is literally how the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. This is not investment advice, DYOR research. Also if you trade crypto, consider checking out our free level two market depth data available on vcdepth.io
SP:SPXShort
by EncryptShawn
Fed`s surprise, coronavirus chronicles, ADP numbersThe main event of yesterday was the Fed’s decision to urgently reduce the rate by 0.5%. The central bank did not wait on March 18 and caught many by surprise. The reaction of the financial markets as a whole seemed logical: the US stock market went up, the dollar was falling, gold was growing. The whole question is whether these trends will continue. We practically do not doubt gold and put on its further growth. The US stock market may well grow by a further wave of optimism by a few percents. But the closer he gets closer to historical highs, the stronger will be our desire to sell. The dollar will be able to take revenge on Friday, but more on that below. In the meantime, we traditionally continue to review the news from epidemic fronts. The epidemic in China has virtually disappeared (130 new cases), but in the world, everything is in full swing (almost 2000 new cases per day). G7 countries, meanwhile, held an emergency meeting at which they firmly decided to confront the economic consequences of the epidemic. Inspired by this news, as well as information about a possible massive easing of monetary policies around the world (the Central Bank of Australia also lowered the rate yesterday and thereby confirmed reasonable expectations), investors again breathed a sigh of relief and rushed to buy cheaper assets. We traditionally do not share this optimism and consider it clearly premature. The consequences are just beginning to manifest. So in the next month, depressing news will be enough. On the foreign exchange market yesterday there was a certain return of common sense. In terms of the fact that the euro stopped growing at the end of the day (even against the background of information about the Fed’s rate reduction of 0.5%), the pound seemed to have found some ground under its feet. All the attention of traders is focused on the first rand of trade negotiations between the EU and the UK. The results will not be earlier than Thursday. So far, we generally consider all this to be nothing more than noise, which can only give the best entry points. Really, nothing will be solved now, which means you should not worry about anything. Recall that our position on the pound is medium-term purchases. Justification - The EU and the UK will eventually be able to agree again. As for the euro, it seems that there was a less clear explanation for its growth in recent days. In addition to the classic for almost any strong movement of triggering stop loss and buy-stop, analysts call the curtailment of the trade due to the coronavirus epidemic as the main reason for the sharp strengthening of the euro against the dollar. For those who are not in the know, we explain that the ultra-low rates in the Eurozone made it possible to borrow money there and invest them in markets with higher returns (for example, the USA). Which naturally led to a depreciation of the euro. Curtailment is marked by opposite trends, respectively, the euro strengthened. Rumors that the Fed will sharply reduce the rate in March and may reduce the rate even later in 2020 provoked the start of the process of curtailing the trade, which was especially clearly reflected in the EURUSD pair. News about the epidemic has recently monopolized the information space so much that it’s easy to miss important news that does not have the word coronavirus or something like that in the headline. We mean that on Friday statistics on the US labor market will be published. This news is traditionally one of the main ones for financial markets. Considering how sensitive markets are now to any deviations from the norm, these data are of increased importance. But the numbers on the NFP will be published only on Friday, but for now, today we are waiting for data from ADP.
Short
by Trade24Fx
S&P 500 versus GoldThe 1.5-year-old declining resistance line (magenta) has proven too strong for the 4 year rising support (blue) which was broken just last week due to the record drop in the US indices. The drop was due to a combination of a market that had been overzealous and priced to perfection in an increasingly deteriorating economic environment. The coronavirus certainly added fear to the markets as it is looking increasingly likely that the service sector globally is going to get hit pretty hard in the coming months. This break-down of a 5-year consolidation, especially with an initial fake breakdown and fake breakout attempt, appears to be hinting at gold outperformance over stocks over the next 12-24 months. The ratio needs to continue putting in lower highs and lower lows to validate the gold>SPX thesis. Central banks response to the carnage in stock markets is going to tell us a lot. How stocks and gold respond to the shift in monetary policy will also be extremely valuable data. I want to stress that with this SPX to Gold Ratio, SPX/XAUUSD ratio, is that we don't know if this pattern is going to break higher or break lower. Breaking higher into a hyper mania similar to 2000 Dotcom is still possible, the next few months will be telling us, but it's also possible we're near the limit that this current stock bubble can maintain. Rates and economic growth were a lot higher in the 90s which you could argue enabled/justified the massive overvaluation. And by many measures (not at all) the current markets are the most overstretched that they've ever been. For example value versus growth is the most skewed its ever been in favor of growth. Commodities are basing at 40-year lows. The gold mining sector versus their own product is the most undervalued it has ever been. If you think gold has the potential to rise 20%, 50%, 150% or more in the coming 1-5 years, then a position in both the metal and the mining sector is a no brainer. Utilizing funamdental and technical analysis we can find the best companies and make timely and strategic purchases over time. Your odds of making a profit are better when you buy something when it is cheaper than normal. Everyone's piling into what's done well for the past several years - that's classic momentum investing and can cost you dearly if we're near a significant top in US indices. I much prefer buying things when they're on fire sale. Be watching how central banks respond and how gold and spx respond to the central banks. This multi-year triangle consolidation is coming to an end and when these triangles breakout in a direction, it is not uncommon for it to be followed by extremely volatile moves in the direction of the breakout that can last for years.
TVC:SPXShort
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
2
Eurchf market overview and trade ideasLagarde’s surprisingly dovish presser from the U.S. session spooked EUR bulls and this anti-EUR sentiment carried over to the Asian session. The pair looks like it could retrace above the previous area of interest or around daily pivots R2 or 50% of Fibonacci retracement as because the short term moving average may suggest bullish trend but actually the long term indicate us it remains bearish still on the 1-hour time frame. Another rejection from the previous area of interest or rejection from descending trend line or from any Fibonacci retracement levels as mention above could send the pair beyond the level 1.06999. A break above the 50% Fib, descending trendline, daily pivot levels any and 200 SMA could signal for a move back up to the 1.0790 but to be honest with the current situation of eurozone I feel less supportive for the euro currency after Lagarde told a news conference that risks to growth in the eurozone remained tilted to the downside and which overall tone as dovish for me including other traders I assume plus knowing that today german outlook only doing fine overall but leaving eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan) only fine not the service and Markit Composite bull traders got no much reason to boost the euro higher.
Short
by jessi061
China’s epidemic, Brexit, the ECB, ruble, and oilWednesday was remembered by the next highs in the US stock market. The madness continues, but characteristic is the reluctance of gold to decline against this background. It turns out that buying gold is currently practically risk-free: with an increase in demand for risky assets, it does not fall, but at the same time, any concerns of investors instantly provoke an increase in asset prices. Speaking of investor concerns. The coronavirus epidemic in China seems to be gaining momentum and is at risk of spreading around the world. And although China’s official authorities claim that the situation is under control, there are risks of causing significant economic damage to the Chinese economy. Events take place at the time of the New Year holidays in China, which traditionally attract millions of tourists. In general, the chances of a trend continuing in a slowdown in China's economy are very high. Against such a background, gold purchases continue to be one of our favorite deals to date. Another top deal for us is the purchase of the British pound. The reasons are the same - Brexit is slowly but surely moving towards the implementation of the “soft” scenario, and this is an occasion for the growth of the pound in the region of 1.40. Yesterday, the GBPUSD pair jerked up due to the fact that the House of Lords of the British Parliament approved the Brexit bill. So on January 31, Great Britain will leave the European Union. From February, a transitional period will begin, which will last until the end of 2020. Bank Canals expectedly left the rate unchanged yesterday. However, the Canadian dollar was still under pressure, and the trading tactics proposed by us in yesterday's review worked out 100%. It is a pity that it can hardly be applied today in the case of the euro. The ECB will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the afternoon. Almost certainly everything will be unchanged. But comments can be quite unexpected. It is about the announcement of the details of the new monetary policy strategy of the Central Bank. As expected, it will include a phasing out of quantitative easing and the era of zero rates. If nothing changes, we do not expect a significant increase in the euro today. Even when changing the strategy of the Central Bank, it’s not about the months, but about the years that will be needed for its practical implementation. Downward pressure has clearly prevailed lately, and aggression on the part of the ECB has not come for years. The Russian ruble continues to decline in the foreign exchange market, but the potential for its reduction has not yet been fully exhausted. It still seems rather vulnerable to us, so we will use any attempts to strengthen the ruble for its sales. Oil yesterday declined quite aggressively and overcame an important level of support, which opens the way to a further decline. Considering that the markets again turned their attention to an oversupply of oil in 2020, we will refrain from aggressive asset purchases for now.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: Keep and Eye on Coronavirus & Today's BOC!Markets remained somewhat muted at the start of the impeachment trial despite Trump’s talk at Davos as concerns around the deadly coronavirus mounted. It’s going to affect Asian economies for sure due to weakening consumer spending unless if it will be contained asap, and perhaps the emerging markets too. In Europe, German and UK macros were seen increasing risk appetite, however, with ECB and #Brexit on the spotlight we could see participants take on a cautious approach on euro and pound now and shift their focus on today’s BOC policy decision. Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ORBEX: With US-China Done, All Eyes on Brexit Now!The US and China signed a partial deal yesterday, putting a temporary stop to global uncertainty! Without that being the end of the trade war, at least we can now wait and see if China respects the signed terms over the next few months... Are emerging markets affected by the fresh rhetoric since China is supported, or should we just focus on monetary policy, particularly in South Africa today? Market participants will now look at the EU and UK for a resolution on the Brexit front. Will the House of Lords prevent a January exit? And how will the EC react about an 11-month transition if they won't? Watch our analyses on euro-pound and the SA rand! Timestamp EURGBP 8H 02:15 USDZAR 8H 04:45 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
6
The 2020 GDX OUTLOOK>>YIELDS|STOCKS|FED Policy& GOLD>>(Part 2/4)Short Analysis on GDX/Gold in 3 bullet points; Series on Commodities and the 2020 outlook - 21st of December 19' Before I get into the analysis, wishing you all Happy holidays! Here's the simpler version of the chart: 1. Few key takeaways: Despite that the current resistance at ~31 is holding , the breakout in GDX is eminent . The question is of the timing . From part 1/4 analysis on yields(Ref #5) it seems that yields are looking somewhat bullish. Of course, this is based on the assumption that "Not QE" will continue and eventually QE-4 will be announced . Nevertheless, this means that equities will continue to be bullish, even in sectors such as materials (Ref #6). If we get another series of rate cuts, GDX could breakout as early as Q2 of 2020. For further discussion on QE and monetary policy, visit part (1/4) on Treasury yields: 2. Recently there has been somewhat of a small bounce in PMI's . This was expected as the global monetary policy stance of CB's took a dovish turn in 2019, and the easing environment affects the real economy with a lag . Taking this into consideration, $GOLD may continue the horizontal path that it is currently on. This bounce in the macro data may be very dependent on the outcome of the trade negotiations , which hopefully we will find more about in January. 3. Not expecting gold to make new highs in the first half of 2020 . As the election cycle unfolds, there should be more volatility depending on the election circumstances. It's still very early, but it doesn't look good for the Democrats, in which case a breakout in both GDX and GOLD may be postponed . It's all labelled on the chart. To sum up, based on more accommodating monetary policy, the bottom line in GDX should hold above 27$. The horizontal range (27-31.25) should sustain before we get a breakout triggered by either the election cycle or potential economic shocks . This is a perfect iron condor trade setup . Materials as a sector has been very under-weighted and hasn't performed well, compared to the cyclicals . As the global economic slowdown continues, it seems that there isn't any downside in holding gold as a stock market hedge . Either way, balance sheet expansion favors all assets, especially substitutes for the dollar- gold. Tried my best to keep it short and simple, this it for GDX and GOLD. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! References & Disclosure: 1. FED rates Super-cycle 1980's- 2. Dollar/Yuan breakdown, trade progress and tariffs: 3. Previous Gold chart: 4. XAUXAG, Gold aginst Silver ratio: 5. Treasuries and QE: 6. XLB Sector, US materials: Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
AMEX:GDXLong
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
7
ORBEX: Look at Yields for Further Clues in Equities!Equities keep climbing higher on the back of renewed trade and Brexit optimism and also on the back of monetary policy decisions! Interest rates are on hold, but the Fed did cut three times in 2019! Will the surge continue into 2020? And if yes, when can we expect the massive sell-off everyone’s been talking about to take place? ake a pick as we near the end of a cautious year! Timestamps DXY 4H 02:10 SPX 4H 04:10 US Yields 06:10 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
TVC:TNX
by Orbex
The 2020 OUTLOOK: >>YIELDS|STOCKS|FED Policy & GOLD>> Part(1/4)Analysis on Treasuries in 3 detailed bullet points ; Series on fixed income and the 2020 outlook - 21st of December 19' Before I get into the analysis, wishing you all Happy holidays! 1. What's the outlook for 2020? Compared to the summer of 2019, the recession fears have somewhat phased out. Nevertheless, weak global macros(PMI's, Growth) and the plateau in earnings, increase the overall systematic risk . 2020 will be a volatile year for all markets, and yields should mostly follow the policy path that the FED will be implementing. So far, the "Not QE" plan by the FED(being very sarcastic here), which by some estimates 500 Billion $ liquidity injection into the markets, is on track to set a record high above 4.5 T on the FEDs balance sheet , by the time the program is finished(Ref #2). Moreover, as the FED currently seems very confident in the market, we know Powell's stance can change at any point(i.e late 2018) . My guess would be that, as soon as the current "Not QE" program ends, the lack of liquidity and more importantly lack of GC(General collateral) will reappear, which would lead to the official ONSET of QE-4, starting Q2-Q3 of 2020. 2. Furthermore, since September and the repo market frenzy, we've seen simply just how crucial is ample liquidity to the cycle. Yields have managed to recover from the late summer lows, and are currently on track to test the 2% resistance target #1. More on the chart technicals can be found from my previous idea that's turning out very well thus far. Intuitively, as the monetary base/FED balance sheet value increases we should see a decrease in yields and vice versa in the case of quantitative tightening(QT:10/2017-08/2019) . Due to inflated growth expectations from QE, thus far this hasn't been the case. Instead, as the QT unraveled the balance sheet yields collapsed, and as the "Not QE" program unfolded, yields are climbing higher again . In case QE-4 is announced, I'd expect yields to climb to at least to target 2, around 2.4-2.5%. 3. Yield curve analysis. It's good that it's not inverted, but if the yield curve is flat persistently, that's obviously not something good either. Tight spreads imply lower profit margin on loans, meaning you need to increase your volume when providing loans as a bank in order to make the same margin . Lower rates have been the nemesis for small banks in the U.S, as they are not as well diversified as large banks . These are the banks, that are crucial to the small economy. On this point that has affected returns in the Russell 2000, I will make a separate analysis. To sum up this analysis on yields, the expectations should be that we should have even more accommodative policies from the FED in 2020. If the economy ins't doing well, Trump's almost surely not going to win the 2020 election . In a way, it can be said that the FED is buying Trump's way to the 2020 election win. Contrary to the latest FED survey, which currently sees no rate cuts for 2020, I think there is a high probability that we will at least get two rate cuts for 2020 (down to 1%, Ref #1) . Weaker dollar of course, lowers the recession probability(ref #3). This is it for yields, I tried to keep it short, hope it's useful. Will attempt to post parts 2-4 as soon as they're finished. Feedback and comments are always welcome! -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated ! References & Disclosure: 1. FED rates Super-cycle 1980's - 2. FED Balance sheet : fred.stlouisfed.org 3. Dollar/Yuan breakdown, trade progress and tariffs : Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
TVC:US10Y
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
ORBEX: Trump LOST Round 1 of Impeachment Battle!Trump was impeached yesterday and lost! But the trial timing remains in doubt, keeping parties on their toes! Meanwhile, BoJ kept interest rates unchanged overnight and now we have to wait and see if BoE adds to the downside risks on #no-deal fears, or encourage bulls with a rather hawkish stance? I talk about all that in today’s market insights while analysing watch-listed FX Minors that move (hint: Loonie)! Timestamps GBPAUD 4H 02:30 CADJPY 4H 03:45 USDMXN 4H 05:40 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Pound, and we are preparing for the Fed announcementOn December 15, the United States will not increase tariffs on Chinese goods.The reason is that the negotiation process between the US and China continues. The news was supposed to provoke sales in safe-haven assets, but it did not happen. That only confirmed our recommendation to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen on the intraday basis. Another quite revealing statement yesterday was the growth of the pound after frankly weak macroeconomic data came out: GDP, industrial production, and the trade balance were worse than expected and were generally weak (GDP growth at minimum levels since 2012). Nevertheless, the pound, as a result, did not decline but even strengthened. The reason is the same - markets expect a conservative party to succeed in the Thursday elections and the subsequent “soft” Brexit. We continue to recommend buying the pound. The key event on Wednesday will be the announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee on the parameters of monetary policy in the United States. After the publication of data on the labour market in the United States last Friday, it became clear that the Fed would not lower or raise the rate. Thus, the probability of maintaining the status quo is 98%. Therefore, do not count on strong movements in dollar pairs today. Accordingly, our trading tactics for the dollar today are unchanged - we will continue to look for opportunities to sell the dollar. As for the oil market, despite the data on the growth of oil reserves in the United States (figures from the API showed an increase of 1.41 million barrels, official statistics from the US Department of Energy will be published tonight), we continue to consider oil purchases in the current conditions quite pe promising trading idea.
Long
by Trade24Fx
USA and China, Saudi Aramco and Bank of EnglandThe previous week, promised to be relatively calm, however, it turned out to be eventful. Gold and the Japanese yen were under downward pressure. The reason is the progress in negotiations between the US and China as well as the growth of positive market expectations regarding the end of trade wars in the foreseeable future. The main result of the week was the news that the United States and China agreed on a phased cancellation of duties before signing a deal. Another event was a separate decision by the Bank of England to leave the rate unchanged. Markets did not expect two members of the Monetary Policy Committee to be in favour of a rate cut. That triggered a decline in the British pound value. In general, you should not expect strong movements in the pound, because the basic driver of pound value in the last 3 years is Brexit. But it is paused so far. So any movement caused by news not related to UK exit will be limited. Due to the large amounts of macroeconomic statistics, the future of the pound looks very vague. On Monday, data on GDP and industrial production in the UK will be published, on Tuesday - statistics on the labour market, on Wednesday - inflation data, on Thursday the data on retail sales will sum up the week. Since the dynamics of the pound, this week will depend on the output data, we will adjust the positions depending on the nature of the data. At the same time, we do not expect irrationality from the foreign exchange market. That is, weak data will provoke sales in pound pairs, and positive statistics data will be the reason for the growth of the pound. Total, this week in the pound we will act contextually, but we give preference to its purchases. On the other hand, we have a very definite position in the oil market - we will look for points for asset purchases. Saudi Arabia in connection with the impending IPO Saudi Aramco will do anything to ensure the growth of oil prices. Latest data on the number of active oil rigs in the United States (the number has dropped to the lowest marks since April 2017) play into the hands of buyers. So we buy oil on the intraday basis. The goal is the growth up to 60.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: GBPCHF & EURJPY Follow Identical Pattern (hint: bullish)!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #fxminors #EURJPY and #GBPCHF as they both seem to be moving within an identical pattern. Despite the added uncertainty amid the latest delay drama of phase-1 of a potential trade deal between US and China, safe-havens #yen and #franc seemed unaffected by at least this type of flows. That suggests that participants are now shifting to more exciting events, expected to trade trade war flows when a more significant and certain development comes on the surface. Until then, #euro and #pound inflows could push the aforementioned pairs higher, with the latter hanging on today's #BoE meeting. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ORBEX: RBA Stays Put, Keeps Inflation Outlook Unchanged!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk mainly about #RBA and why #Aussie in somewhat bid and I also touch #eurodollar. #AUDUSD, despite yesterday's slide and regardless of trade war narratives, was pushed higher earlier in the session on the back of RBA's hold. The pair was supported as the bank kept the inflation outlook unchanged and reiterated that the economy is indeed in a changing state. That, of course, gave hope to investors and the like. #EURUSD on the other hand, also weak yesterday on the back of a stronger dollar, remains under pressure as Euro Area PMIs remain far from expansion. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
GOLD end of 2019|DEC RATE CUT|TRADE WAR|ECON FUNDAMENTALSKeeping it short but precise, few fundamental bullet points on factors that will affect gold until the end of 2019: 1. Once US/China deal gets finalized, Gold should have a bearish consolidation to 1410, eventually to 1360 by the start of 2020. 2. GOLD is currently in a horizontal range due to two factors: Global monetary policy dovishness continues for October(bullish) , but at the same time higher likelihood of a good US/China deal outcome(bullish), and then there's Brexit. 3. On the point of monetary policy; OCT 31st meeting already priced in , everyone is focusing now on Dec 11th FOMC (Ref#1) . The issue for the Dec 11th FOMC, is that it will depend massively on the US/China deal outcome, that'll be decided sometime mid November. 4. Expecting yields on the US 10Y to recover if a deal goes through . Yields in a range, above the critical 1.5% support, and at the moment are looking for a breakout. Of course, this would have a very bearish effect on gold. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ On the technical side, you can see the developments on the chart. On the daily looks very indecisive, but leaning bearish. In fact, I think that after the FED rate cut next week, on Friday the 1st of November there should be a sell-off in gold. Earnings season is going okay-ish well, and by the end of it we should know how it will affect gold. Have to reiterate that Trump has to get a deal done with China; that'll basically guarantee him another mandate from 2020 . This is the main factor, that makes me bearish on gold for now. This is it for Gold, it was just a short, but precise update. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ References and disclosure: 1. www.cmegroup.com Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels. This short update is just a continuation from a previous chart on gold:
FX:XAUUSDShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
6
ORBEX: GBPJPY, EURGBP - BoJo Wants Election, Adios Draghi!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPJPY and #EURGBP #FXMinors! GBPJPY Supported by: - Increasing expectations EC will grant January extension - BoJo win in case of early election - Weak safe-haven flows - Japan manufacturing to 3yr low EURGBP Under Pressure as: - Investors eye ECB and last Draghi meeting - Disappointing Business Climate (French) - Poor EA Consumer Confidence Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Gold should be bullish for a whileWith the Fed's quarter-percent rate cut, gold should move upward for the near future. The move likely won't last, because further rate cuts are not expected this year, but it should be good for a short-to-medium-term trade. To sustain its upward move, gold needs to get above the high-volume support node at $68. I will buy a bar close above this level. I've also got buy orders around 59.10, 60.60, and 63.50, in case we see downward oscillation to those support levels. Remember, gold moves opposite the dollar, and a major objective of the Fed's rate policy this year is to weaken the dollar. Assuming the Fed's tactics are successful, that should strengthen gold.
AMEX:JNUGLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith