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Monetarypolicy

ORBEX: GBPJPY, EURGBP - BoJo Wants Election, Adios Draghi!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPJPY and #EURGBP #FXMinors! GBPJPY Supported by: - Increasing expectations EC will grant January extension - BoJo win in case of early election - Weak safe-haven flows - Japan manufacturing to 3yr low EURGBP Under Pressure as: - Investors eye ECB and last Draghi meeting - Disappointing Business Climate (French) - Poor EA Consumer Confidence Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Gold should be bullish for a whileWith the Fed's quarter-percent rate cut, gold should move upward for the near future. The move likely won't last, because further rate cuts are not expected this year, but it should be good for a short-to-medium-term trade. To sustain its upward move, gold needs to get above the high-volume support node at $68. I will buy a bar close above this level. I've also got buy orders around 59.10, 60.60, and 63.50, in case we see downward oscillation to those support levels. Remember, gold moves opposite the dollar, and a major objective of the Fed's rate policy this year is to weaken the dollar. Assuming the Fed's tactics are successful, that should strengthen gold.
AMEX:JNUGLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
DXY, SPX: Hang on Fed & GeopoliticsIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse DXY and SXP! Equities look bullish and the US index bearish, from a technical perspective. On the (geo)-political front their prices are and could remain being affected by: - A somewhat dovish?! Fed - BoE and Brexit (BoJo visits EU today for talks!) - SA attack and expectations on reduced oil production - Weakening Chinese data - US-Sino tradewar optimism On the other hand, don't forget that policy-pessimism is going to matter most?! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Orbex
EUROUSD|BREXIT|TRADE|ECONOMIC GROWTH|PREMIUM[Short Term]ANALYSISEURO|USD: Episode (1 )- Series: Major Currencies and Currency Indices -18th of August 2019 (8-9 Minute Read) 3 Contingencies upon which the timing of this analysis is based on: Brexit (Finally) Happening in the next 6 months , similarly expecting a US/China Trade deal in the same time-frame, and of course later on Trump winning 2020 . I have to reiterate here, that I will never include any personal political opinions in my analysis- he is the current president( and most likely for 2 terms) . My primary job is to evaluate the impact of his administration on the markets. Since that's been said, let's start with the basics . Left chart is the Monthly EURUSD , right chart is the x2 Weekly Chart . While I was analysing the chart patterns and moving averages, the 2 weeks chart gave much better clues than the weekly one. With the 3 named contingencies, a probability model with expected values can be build which obviously can't be performed by an individual investor. Even if these contingencies do not play out the same way this chart is build on, the most value part of this analysis either way, are the pitchforks, MA trendlines and the wave/harmonic pattern labelling (Which EUR/USD will most likely continue to follow). Since most people on this page are traders, firstly I will go in detail on the x2 Weekly chart. Zoomed out x2 Weekly Chart Based on the drawn pitchfork, trading EURUSD in the last couple of months has been extremely easy. Until the deadline of Brexit(this October), I do not see a reason why this trend won't continue down to (Y) or further. The more difficult part to predict is the formation of the second (X). No matter how bad Brexit is to Europe, it will relieve pressure on the Euro. In addition, the current situation is already priced in, so once brexit occurs, after the initial sell-off I wouldn't be surprised if there is a shift of momentum to (X) . The most likely target range for (X) would be in between 1.14 and 1.16 . The longer Brexit is prolonged, the longer the current negative momentum will last. Lastly, 2020 is an election year in the US , and this will be a supplementary factor that might ease of the pressure on the Euro in 2020( Especially if a prospective Democrat runs versus Trump) . On this point, we will have to continue by analysing the monthly chart. Zoomed out, Monthly EURUSD Chart Q: With the current setup; Brexit and US/China Trade deal occuring, what will happen with the Euro ? -Primarily it will follow the drawn Monthly Pitchfork . When it comes to the Butterfly setup , it is just an idea that's the most logical in this buildup. Point (A) in the Butterfly signifies the rejection of the euro bulls attempting to re-enter the previous triangle and break-off from the ichimoku monthly cloud and the 100 Monthly MA(Purple/Orange line) . Furthermore, it can be observed from the Monthly Pitchfork , since the 2nd part of 2018, it is clear that the EURUSD has been trading within the 0.5 and 0.25 bands of the pitchfork. This is quite a long shot, but I am expecting another ichimoku cloud breakout rejection at (C) , followed by an election win from Trump. In this scenario, the EURO will temporarily end up below 1(0.95) against the Dollar at point (Z). Concluding this analysis , I am expecting a continuation of the ECB's dovishness and easing until a good portion of the European Banks collapse . On this point I am quite serious; how in the world does the ECB, expect European banks to be sustainably profitable in the fixed income divisions with such low rates ? The only way is to cut the financing and stop giving out credit, and end up in a typical "Credit Crunch" situation (That throughout history has been the most common cause for recessions) . Once a US/China deal occurs , the ECB would relatively keep being dovish compared to the FED- adding up additional pressure on the Euro . This is a continuation of my argument in my last thoroughly historical analysis of US Monetary policy(Linked as #2 down below). Oh and not to forget- there will be plenty recession uncertainties this autumn and the following spring(VIX Analysis, Linked #1). And let me be clear, NO ONE knows exactly how the markets will behave. (Give me your feedback people, don't be shy! If you disagree, that'll be even better; it'll just make up for a great discussion in the comments) |Step_Ahead_oftheMarket| >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! {Make sure to check out my previous ideas and my series on US( SPX ) Sector including 11 episodes of the major US sectors} 1. PART 1-VIX: Volatility Index 2. PART 2-FRED: FED SuperCycle Interest Rate 3. Series Finale ; Episode 11: US Utilities( XLU ) Full Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels. Wish that tview had a copy-right option, but it is what it is.
Short
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
10
Opportunity Knocks For The NZDJPYWith global equities continuing to be supported by favorable liquidity conditions and little else, it was really just a matter of time before risk assets came under more pressure. The biggest red flag was flying in the bonds market, where global bonds have continued to rally sending yields sharply lower. Equities rallying strong along with bonds is not sustainable, and considering slowing global growth, trade conflicts, and political unrest risk assets have appeared the most vulnerable. The constant flows into bonds highlights the increasing uncertainty and demand for safety. The current equities decline started when the Fed disappointed doves with only a 25bp cut, delivered with a neutral statement. The decline was accelerated by news of new tariffs that will be imposed on China by the Trump administration. This sparked a sell off of risk assets, and flows into safe havens such as JPY and CHF. The USD missed the boat this go around partly due to the unwinding of the EURUSD carry trade caused by the quick spike in volatility. There were also some EM factors that contributed to the USD decline, but those are outside the scope of what we are trying to convey here. After all, we are here for the NZDJPY. NZD is a high beta currency strongly tied to the performance of the global economy. It is also directly impacted by the US-China trade conflict, just like its cousin the AUD. Today the RBNZ surprised the market by cutting 50bp (market was expecting 25bp). Soft inflation expectations wiped out any positive the currency picked up on strong employment figures yesterday, business confidence remains very poor, and the RBNZ has even floated the idea of unconventional monetary policy. All of these things should keep the NZD weak over the medium term. On the technical side, we have now traded through key monthly support, which should now serve as a barrier for any rally attempts. Over the coming months we are looking for continued declines towards 65.00 and then 62.00.
Short
by ChrisMathis
1
Dollar Anomaly and the Fed DayBritish pound reached a three-year low yesterday. The pound was sold out on growing fears of a potential ‘no deal’ Brexit. Investors perceive Johnson's words at face value. We do believe that nothing more than a snare which is based on an attempt to gain an advantage in the negotiation process. So, the markets are wrong, and the pound current price does not correspond to its REAL PRICE - it is very undervalued. Therefore, we continue to recommend its purchases across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. Especially against the dollar. As for the dollar, the situation has not changed much - it continues to show its strength although today the Fed might deal a severe blow to it. We have already noted that the markets estimate the likelihood of curring the interest rate at 100%. The current probability that the interest rate will be reduced 3 times by January 2020 is about 70% (!). And this is a serious signal for dollar sales, that is going to be a cycle of rate cuts, that is, a reverse in the Fed’s monetary policy. The vector change cost 15% loss of the dollar price. Once again, we note that the foreign exchange market cutting the interest rate probably did not take into account. For example, the stock market has responded with new historical highs — a “classic” reaction for such situations. The bond market also took into account this. And the dollar in the foreign exchange market behaves abnormally. Anomalies do not often occur in the financial markets and this fact must be used. So today we sell a dollar. In addition to buying the pound and selling the dollar, we will continue to sell the Russian ruble and oil, buy the Japanese yen.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
1
Illusions: do not cheat but earnThe pound hasn't been consistently lower since 1985. Mr Gove told reporters earlier: a “no-deal Brexit is possible”. Boris Johnson is refusing to sit down for talks with EU leaders until they agree to ditch the Irish backstop from the Brexit withdrawal agreement. Entry-Exit will cast approximately $ 1.2 billion. Well, Europe is satisfied with the current deal version. Despite that fact that the British pound was sold out on growing fears of a potential ‘no deal’ Brexit, we believe that the parties negotiate better bargain for themselves by voicing extreme positions. That is a big game. And understanding of its rules throws the entire perception of reality into the adequate one, including the British pound future dynamics. In our opinion, what is happening with the pound is a one form of deception, an illusion, a false reality is formed on the market. One of the manifestations of this is the pound current prices and its price dynamics. We believe that it is a significant opportunity for purchasing. The question is if you have got enough patience to wait for profit. Meantime, we are on track in the punchline of this summer, or of 2019, in the foreign exchange market. The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy. We already wrote that the current consensus in the market is a cut rate (according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange 100% of traders believe in). However, the dollar is in the area of two-year highs. Seems lake on Wednesday they are planning to increase the rates. Do not forget about the GDP (2.1% in the second quarter, 3.1% in the first), impeachment against US President Donald Trump, possible foreign exchange interventions by the US side, etc. Why is the dollar so expensive? Isn't it time to be discounted under the Fed decision? In the end, cutting rates of the central banks is the strongest bearish signal for the currency. As an example, the Fed cut rates in 2007-08, during that the dollar lost about 15% (!) Of its value. In our opinion, we are dealing with a classic “divorce”. Markets test traders’ "strength." So, those who pass this test earn. So our recommendation is: sell the dollar or keep the existing short positions. So, despite the dollar growth yesterday, our trading recommendations are unchanged: we will continue to sell the dollar, as well as selling oil and the Russian ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ADP, ECB’s new head & July 4thThe publication of data on employment in the US private sector from ADP was the main even. Considering that official statistics from the US Department of Labor will be published tomorrow, traders and other financial market participants are expressing interest in. Analysts had expected growth in May (140K) however, the number is + 102K, only. On the one hand, the data is lower than forecast, on the other hand, it is significantly higher than the previous frankly disastrous numbers (recall that last month the increase was 27K, only). Well, this is a rather alarming signal. Also yesterday, data on the US trade balance was published (- $ 55.5 billion with a forecast $ 54.0). Our recommendation is “sell the dollar”. Especially, if you remember Trump's attack on the dollar. Traditionally, in Twitter, the President of the United States called for the devaluation of the dollar. And about the weak UK business activity data (Composite PMI index went below 50, that is 49.7), which increased the downward pressure on the pound. It’s too late to sell the pound and too early to buy. A similar index was published in Eurozone. The situation there is better (52.2 with the forecast 52.1). So, euro purchasing is not a bad idea ( on the intraday basis). Ms Lagarde was honored to have been nominated for the ECB presidency. According to experts, Lagarde will adhere to a stimulating monetary policy aimed at ensuring economic growth in Europe. So, the euro might be under pressure. We expect low liquidity in financial markets due to a holiday in the USA (Fourth of July – Independence Day). The “weak” market may well surprise in the form of volatility explosions, so today it is worth trading with caution. Our trading recommendations for today: we will continue to look for points for dollar sales as well as the Russian ruble. Since AUDUSD has finished the day with a 0.7020 mark, we do not sell it, duo to further growth. Sell oil. As for gold, today we are working without obvious preferences on the oscillator signals.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Repositioning FX and Trump's new warYesterday, repositioning was continuing in the foreign exchange market. Traders tried to incorporate the change in the vector of the Fed’s monetary policy into the dollar price. As a result, today the probability of a rate cut at the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is 100%. At the same time, 65% of traders are waiting for a decline of 0.25%, and 35% - by 0.5%. Note that a month ago, the probability of a rate cut in July was estimated by markets at 20%. Since vector changing of US monetary policy is a tectonic thing not only for the US economy but also for the world economy and the foreign exchange market as well, it is naive to believe that the markets will fully take this into account in one day. So we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales. Moreover, Trump seems to be going to redirect his efforts from escalating the trade war to a currency war. A strong dollar reduces to zero his protectionist efforts. So the attack on the dollar seems quite logical. And even if we do not see active opposition on the currency front, such rumors will have a negative impact on the dollar, because everyone wants to be the first to sell the dollar before it drops. The Bank of England, as well as the Bank of Japan, decided to leave the monetary policy parameters unchanged yesterday. So, the Japanese yen and the pound moved in line with the basic trends of the foreign exchange market, without showing any particular individuality. About the UK. Boris Johnson won the vote for the fourth time and received 157 votes and left only 3 positions on the list of candidates. The end of the week is likely to be hectic. The markets have not taken into account the Fed's decision, and data on business activity in the Eurozone and the US, as well as retail sales in Canada, may well trigger a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market. Our trading preferences for today: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro and even the pound, sell oil and the Russian ruble, and also buy gold.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
EU Elections, the USA isn't ready for peace & RF monetary policyIt is not surprising that nothing significant in the dynamics of prices for financial assets occurred duo to calm mood on the USA and the UK financial markets. Tuesday in terms of macroeconomic statistics also promises to be a very calm day. But we do not wait for a lull in the markets - after 3 days of rest, traders and investors with redoubled efforts could begin to follow current trends and news background. The main news on Monday was the announcement of the results of elections to the European Parliament. The main parties of the European Union retained their positions. And the main fear, the victory of the populists, turned out to be only a fear: Euro-skeptics and the ultra-right took 171 places in total, against 503 places of four pro-European parties. In this light, we believe that our position - buying the euro against the dollar - is one less threat. Trump went to Japan over the weekend. According to him, the United States has achieved "significant progress" in trade negotiations with Japan. But it is not necessary to count on any final deal upcoming days. Nevertheless, this kind of information rather favorably and reassuringly influenced the mood of investors and traders. As for the main front of trade wars - between the United States and China. Trump said that the United States is not ready for the current version of the deal "and that it is not easy to pay duties to Washington for Chinese authorities, therefore they will agree to conclude a trade agreement with the United States, in the end. So the United States will continue to push. Quite interesting information about the Russian ruble was recently shared in Bloomberg. Experts at Bloomberg Economics believe that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will lower the rate on June 14, and then again in September and December. So, after a rather long period of inactivity, the Central Bank of Russia is entering an active phase of easing monetary policy. What does this mean for the ruble? That it will become even less “attractive” for foreign investors. We consider such information as confirmation of our basic trading idea - the sale of the Russian ruble. Considering that recently the Russian ruble has strengthened, we believe that its sale is more relevant than ever. Since nothing special happened yesterday, our trading positions did not change: we will look for points for buying of the euro and the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will carefully buy a pound.
by Trade24Fx
EURHUF - strong Hun eco data + carry effectFundamentals - Hun core inflation above MNB target -> rate increase probably in March - wage growth steadily above 10% - GDP growth above expectation, 5% yoy The eco picture resembles scenario the Czech case from 2017 where the central bank started raising rates (wage pressure, inflation, housing prices) and the korona strengthened 6-7%. Technical - EURHUF short trend - 318 resistance tested, move above rejected -> next support weekly 200 DMA @ 313 Trade plan - EURHUF short opened, carry in favor - Be patient, next rate decision 26th Feb
Short
by RobertSoos
NIKKEI: time to sellThe price of the index in the last two sessions has touched the resistance set at 20900 points, recovering over 1600 after the minimum marked between 25 and 26 December. The price remains bearish: after the high recorded in October 2018, in the short/medium term has remained almost constantly below the intersection of the main EMA, the key resistance level for attend inversion. After the recovery of these first days of 2019, the price seems to have found (in the static resistance at 20900) a point of restart on the downside: if the EMA 20 periods was broken down (at this time passes for the 20540 points) you could think of a short entry with targets below 18,000 points. The publication of tonight's monetary policy should help this trend, despite not expecting a change in interest rates, the governor of the Japanese central bank could make investors understand that even the expansionary policy implemented for years could change, as all other central banks are trying to do. Join us for further analysis on: Instagram : www.instagram.com Telegram: t.me Facebook Page: www.facebook.com Web: www.bfcminvest.com
TVC:NI225Short
by BFCMInvest
BoC on Deck this month ... fading corrective rallies in USDCAD=> We still maintain our USDCAD short position from earlier in the week and recommend selling all corrective rallies here ahead of the BoC rate hike widely expected this month. => Although the rate hike is expected this trade is far from crowded and we see incoming data to keep the BoC on track with tightening monetary policy. => Odds of any hikes are close to 90% probability (in other words it is a done deal) which makes complete sense considering that the decreased political uncertainty allows the BoC to completely focus on better fundamentals when setting policy (a rarity in this world...) => We are expecting payrolls to reach 195k and average hourly earnings expected to come in at 2.9% YoY. => Markets are expecting a better outcome, especially considering the price action we've seen in US yields and the USD via ADP and ISM employment components. => Good luck all trading this live
by ridethepig
1
The USD problem with a gold recoveryAll the gold investors have been hoping that people will come to their senses and see the coming economic downturn as a result of the rising interest rates and start buying gold. But this has not been happening, has it. Right now gold is interacting pretty directly with USD and the problem here is that USD is slated to get stronger this year. And this can only be bad news for gold. We are both increasing demand for USD by expanding the deficit and selling more bonds and we are decreasing supply be increasing interest rates. We are also seeing good GDP growth and other positive metrics for the US economy which help support USD as well. Positive consumer sentiment is typically bad for the safe haven metal. There also doesn't seem to be much paranoia about the Fed letting inflation run away on us, in fact that Fed seems intent on tightening the monetary supply with out the requirement of inflation running above 2%. So inflation concerns aren't driving gold either. So Golds problem is: nothing is going wrong, there's no inflation fears and no economic apocalypse unfolding and the USD is wrenching around Gold at will. Once the yield curve inverts and dries up liquidity and companies have troubling rolling over their massive debt load and start laying people off; then I think you'll see gold roar to life. Not to mention the fact that the Fed has recently expanded the monetary supply by roughly 3 times, did someone say stagflation? and if we're really luck! maybe North Korea will start shooting of ICBMs all over the place :) :)
TVC:GOLD
by alexr451
Will Aussie Dollar Strength Prevail in 2018?The Aussie Dollar experienced strength throughout 2017 against its US counterpart with a strong rally to finish the year before forming a double top last week. Over the past week, AUDUSD has fallen almost 2%, following a CPI miss in Australia and a positive earnings report in the United States. Is this a sign of things to come for the remainder of 2018 or will Aussie Dollar strength prevail? Throughout 2017, one of the main concerns of the Reserve Bank of Australia was AUD strength that resulted from a rally in metal prices and US Dollar weakness. As Australia is a net exporter, a weaker currency is favoured and with current rates at 1.5%, some analysts feel that it is unlikely for the RBA to raise rates this year. Westpac have also said that they do not see any rate hikes in the near future. However, recent data is showing that the economy is strengthening along with other countries globally which is expected to lead to inflationary pressure. In order to keep up with the global economy, this could result in the possibility of a rate hike later this year. Many asset managers currently have a negative outlook on the Australian Dollar as they believe that AUDUSD has risen on US Dollar weakness rather than Aussie Dollar strength. A key event for this pair will be the upcoming monetary policy statement from the RBA where analysts are expecting a more hawkish tone. The US dollar, on the other hand, is not having the best of runs despite a strengthening economy. The rate statement released by the Fed earlier this week increased the odds of a March rate hike, with a total of three hikes expected for the year. There is also the possibility of a fourth hike if data continues to improve and inflation begins to catch up with the rest of the economy. In addition, we saw a positive earnings report with NFP and average earnings beating expectations, allowing a strong finish on Friday for the dollar. Bond yields increased throughout the week, with the 10 year treasury yield in particular, heading towards 3% which investors consider a significant level. This was based on the global economy starting to rise, increasing expectations of inflationary pressure. However, the dollar continues to struggle against many other currencies with the dollar index seeing only a small gain last week and weakness is expected to continue in the coming weeks. A large part of this is down to the Eurozone economy, where we saw GDP growth that was larger than that in the US and UK. Analysts are now anticipating that the ECB will unwind its quantitative easing program and tighten monetary policy at a quicker pace than previously expected. Central banks globally are expected to follow on and also begin tightening policies, which should see them catch up with the US. Based on the current fundamentals, the weakness of AUDUSD seems to simply be a retracement and we should see a bullish run up until March. In March, we will assess the stance of the RBA against the Fed. If the RBA look to hold rates for the majority of the year and the Fed continue hiking, we will get a policy divergence with the Fed rate exceeding the RBA rate, at which point, AUDUSD weakness should kick in. Over the short term, we will be looking for buying opportunities on this pair and from Q2 we could be looking at short positions with long term targets around 0.75. However, traders should keep in mind that the fundamentals and sentiment can change quickly so it is important to frequently reassess long term positions. A prime example of this is the EURUSD currency pair which completely went against analyst expectations in 2017.
Short
by priyesh
Yen about to suffer or benefit from geopolitical uncertainty?The USDJPY is approaching a key level on the weekly chart at 110.30. However is this an opportunity to long given the obvious fact that both countries have different monetary policies ? Or given the fact that Abe's popularity is tanking as a result of the scandal may cause markets to reassess the probability of him seeing his abenomics policies to fruition remains to be seen. Read more about it. www.bloomberg.com Thus, probable scenarios moving forward a. 110.30 supported with stop below 108.00 with target at 113.40 and above (Month end flows and FOMCweek) b. 110.30 breached and weekly trendline broken but supported at 109.30 (USDOLLAR continues to tank without finding support) c. Sideways trading between levels 108.40 and 110.30 (Directionless until NFP in August )
by revelationtrading