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AUDUSD-Money managementHi friends, After the previous signal reached all the set targets, today I would like to share my opinion about money management and how to manage open positions. In my opinion, in the first 2 years of trading on each position, a maximum of 3 to 5% of the total account balance should be involved. Second, convert the money into several parts for a signal or one idea, for example, Two or three to 0.01 lot. Risk-Free: The important thing is when to do risk free? For do Risk-Free (change the stop loss to the entry point) after the price reaches 50% of the forecast or primary idea. For this trade, I risk-freed after the price reached TP2.
by Ario_trader
Inflation SupercycleOn the afternoon of October 3rd, 2023 something unprecedented happened in the U.S. Treasury market. For the first time ever, bear steepening caused the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield to uninvert. Bear steepening refers to a scenario in which long-duration bond yields rise faster than short-duration bond yields, as bond yields rise across the term structure. In all past instances, inverted yield curves have normalized due to bull steepening . The probability that bear steepening would cause an inverted yield curve to normalize is so low that, until now, most term structure models excluded the possibility of it ever happening. In this post, I'll explain why this anomalous event is a major stagflation warning. The chart above shows that the 10-year Treasury yield has been rising much faster than the 3-month Treasury yield throughout 2023, narrowing the once-deep yield curve inversion. Since a yield curve inversion indicates that a recession is coming, and bear steepening indicates that the market is pricing in higher inflation for the short term, and even more so, for the long term, then bear steepening during a yield curve inversion indicates that high inflation may persist even during the recessionary phase. High inflation during the recessionary period is what defines stagflation . Since very strong bear steepening is normalizing a deeply inverted yield curve, the combination of these events is a warning that severe stagflation is likely coming. High inflation has caused Treasury yields to surge at an astronomical rate of change. Bond prices, which move in the opposite direction as yields, have sharply declined causing destabilizing losses. The effects of these massive bond losses are not even close to being fully realized by the broad economy. The image above shows a bond ETF heatmap with year-to-date returns. Large losses have been mounting across numerous bond ETFs. Long-duration Treasury ETF NASDAQ:TLT has declined by more than 18% this year. Click here to interact with the bond ETF heatmap Despite the extreme pace of monetary tightening, many central banks are still struggling to contain inflation. Inflationary fiscal spending and ballooning debt-to-GDP levels are confounding central bank monetary policy efforts. In Argentina, for example, inflation continues to spiral higher despite the central bank raising interest rates to 133%. The chart above shows that the central bank of Argentina has hiked interest rates to 133%. Despite this extreme interest rate, the country's inflation rate continues to spiral higher. In an inflationary spiral, there is no upper limit to how high interest rates can go. As the Federal Reserve tightens the supply of the U.S. dollar -- the predominant global reserve currency -- all other countries (with less demanded fiat currency) generally must tighten their monetary supply by a greater degree in order to contain inflation. If a country fails to maintain tighter monetary conditions than the Federal Reserve, then the supply of that country's (lesser demanded) fiat currency will grow against the supply of the (greater demanded, and scarcer) U.S. dollar, causing devaluation of the former against the latter. In effect, by controlling the global reserve currency, the Federal Reserve is able to export inflation to other countries. This phenomenon is explained by the Dollar Milkshake Theory . The forex chart above shows FX:USDJPY pushing up against 150 yen to the dollar. The longer the Bank of Japan continues to maintain significantly looser monetary conditions than the Fed, the longer the yen will continue to devalue against the U.S. dollar. The meteoric rise in bond yields is particularly concerning because it has broken the long-term downtrend, signaling the start of a new supercycle. After hitting the zero lower bound in 2020, yields have rebounded and pierced through long-term resistance levels. The chart above shows that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above long-term resistance, ending the period of declining interest rates that characterized the monetary easing supercycle. We've entered into a new supercycle, one in which lower interest rates over time are a thing of the past. The new supercycle will be characterized by persistently high inflation. It will start off insidiously, with brief periods of disinflation, but over the long term it will accelerate higher and higher, ultimately causing today's fiat currencies to meet the same fate that every fiat currency in history has met: hyperinflation. * * * Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
Editors' picks
FRED:M2SL
by SpyMasterTrades
46
S&P500 adjusted for Money Suppy is unchanged for 26 years In order to get the decimal point to the right of a number, I had to multiply AMEX:SPY by 1,000,000,000,000 or 1 Trillion. The price of the market is unchanged since January 1997 with the adjustment. That is an incredible 26 years where prices haven't bean 'inflation as measured by the quantity of money' floating around in the banking system. Nominally, our purchasing power if stored in stocks has been maintained over that time period, which is good. BUT, if you think you are wealthier over these last 26 years, it may be because of your ability to pick stocks that do better than the market overall. The Nasdaq likely did far better than the S&P500, for example. 321 months sideways and plenty of deviation around the level we are at now. I have adjusted other charts for inflation to make a point and I wanted to add this one, which is more aggressive, to the bunch. Tim West October 18, 2023. 12:58PM EST
AMEX:SPY
by timwest
11
Bullish on TTD? Here, as you can see on the weekly chart, we have formed a double bottom. We are also bouncing off of the 25 EMA as well. The volume was a little higher than last week. And we have had 2 green weeks in a row. Also, the MACD has turned bright red indicating that potentially the selling pressure has subsided. Also, the technicals are all pointing bullish. Also, on the daily chart to finish off this previous week, we ended on a strong bullish candle with high volume and the MACD turned green.
NASDAQ:TTDLong
by OptionsMastery
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Editors' picks
Education
by TradingView
45
The Euro Dollar**Welcome, first I want to personally thank you for taking you time to read what I am about to share with you. These ideas I am publishing come from my view of the market as any other trade influencer out there. It's important to understand that as humans, we possess the possibility of sharing information, and are known to adapt to correct feedbacks of information and disregard what we perceive as being false/wrong information. I want to begin with this fact. The market is designed for neither of you or me to be right or wrong. The market is designed to move money from one source to another. That's all. There is nothing more to that fact. Understand this fact at it is vital for this publication.** The Euro Dollar has been on a downtrend, 4H chart, since July 13. Although many attempts have been seen throughout the last couple of weeks of bullish pressure entering the market in an attempt to rebound prices. They, unfortunately, have failed. This is obvious. Without looking at indicators, take a shot at the 4H chart on the EUR USD. What do you see? The correct answer is what I just have mentioned. Now, this is nothing I have made up or predicted, however, everyone in the whole wide world who has access to a 4H chart can clear as day see this downtrend (As suppose you are right now). But this downtrend is subject to reversal! I know some of you may be thinking just that, however, and hear me out. How certain are you that the price will reverse just because an indicator is advising you it will? Are you sure you are using the indicator in a correctness. Well, for starts, an indicator can only provide you information on what others are doing, and not where the market is actually going. Yeah I know, it sucks. Well its the truth. I'm not saying use or don't use them, I'm just advising you of the fact, just like you can see the downtrend on the 4H. And the fact is that INDICATORS CAN NOT show you where the market is going. If they did, well... they'd all work. Period. What I can tell you is, is that the market itself is telling you what its doing. The market is going down, bottom, low, whatever you want to call it but its doing this ( \ ) not ( / ). Those are suppose to be trend lines, I know terrible. Anyhow, the MARKET is telling you what to do. Its telling you hey bud I'm going down, whether you like it or not, its going DOWN! Now it may choose to go up tomorrow, or in the next couple of weeks, and that's cool and all because good traders would at that point cut their losses and follow the trend upwards, assuming they haven't opened a YOLO 100X margin trade on a $300 account. See. Its really that simple. Market tells you its going down, you go with it, obviously protecting yourself from when it decides to go back up and vice versa. I hope you found this simple idea with meaning, because honestly, the markets are that simple. You can only BUY or SELL, don't over complicate that fact as a retail trader. Good Luck HAPPY HUNTING
by TradeSavant
1
BULLISH AAPL? KEEP YOUR CHARTS CLEAN. As you can see, we have bounced off of the bottom Bollinger Band and the YTD VWAP. I am waiting for the Heikin Ashi RSI to turn green, and the regular chart to have a strong green Heikin Ashi candlestick before entry. We have already made a lighter red candle on the MACD and bounced off on the regular candlesticks. We have just broken out of a falling wedge on the 2 hour chart as well. This would be a great swing trade. I would look to target the top of the Bollinger Band for my Take Profit. Keep your charts simple!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by OptionsMastery
SQ goin up. As you can see here, we are coming up on a demand zone area from back in March 2020. We are touching the bottom line of the Bollinger bands and the bands are opening up meaning there could be volatility for a big move. We are also oversold on the RSI as well. I would wait for a big move off of the band with high volume and target the upper Bollinger band. The analyst on TradingView and most of the recent ideas on here suggest we are going to make a reversal soon.
NYSE:SQLong
by OptionsMastery
V (Visa) Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: with price above 245.37 Volume: with volume greater than 4.33M Target: 256.92 area (this is an area, no guarantee it reaches this price, but you should be selling on the way up) Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 245.38, 241.38 gets you 3/1 Reward to Risk Ratio. This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
NYSE:VLong
by tradepatiently