How to trade with ESMA new regulations on leverage ?Hi everyone,
Some of you may or may not know that big changes will take place on august 1st 2018 on Forex and CFDs market especially for retail clients.
ESMA for European Securities and Markets Authority decided to ban binary option and apply a drastic decrease on leverage on all financial instruments including forex, CFDs and crypto.
All UE regulated brokers are affected by these changes. Even non-UE brokers (I mean serious ones) are applying these changes. All clients from UE or not are affected by these changes. This a worldwide earthquake on trading planet.
New rules, new attitude... how to deal with these changes ?
First find below the new leverage :
Major FX: 30:1 (USD, JPY, CAD, GBP, CHF)
Minor FX: 20:1 (ALL OTHERS including AUD, NZD)
CFDs: 20:1
Stocks: 5:1
Crypto: 2:1
Before, a trader could start trading with $100 with leverage up to 400, a micro lot (0.01) required $4 margin average.
Starting august 1st a trader with a $100 account will need a required margin of $30 ON EURUSD for a micro lot (0.01).
EURUSD new magins on august 1st:
0.01 lot: $30
0.1 lot: $300
1 lot: $3000
Of course this post is not dedicated to criticize this new law but to provide ideas to deal with it and continue making money.
Normally I recommend using 0.01 lot per trade with a $1000 account but this rule can be adapted if we reduce drastically the number of opened positions simultaneously. For example, if you take only 1 trade a week in swing looking for 80 to 150 pips, you can obviously increase your lot size from 0.01 to 0.05 or even 0.1 for experimented traders.
Selecting carefully trading opportunities
The first consequence of the low leverage is the fact that you cannot open several trades simultaneously. You really need (and you won't have choice anyway) to be selective on trading ideas. Choose only opportunities with the best configurations and in which you have a really good confidence.
Strategy 1: If you have a $1000 account, you can decide to keep up to 4 trades opened at the same time with a reasonable stop loss.
If you risk 2% of your capital per trade , you could use 0.05 lot at $150 margin with a stop loss of 40 pips ($20). If you apply a risk/reward ratio of 2 or more then you can expect 80 pips ($40) on each trade.
With this strategy you must lose 20 trades in a row ($700 loss at 40 pips stop loss) before not being able anymore to place 4 trades simultaneously at 0.05 order.
You need to win 35% of your trade to be flat because of the risk/reward ration of 2 minimum. (See the attached post about risk reward ratio)
Strategy 2: If you have a $1000 account, you can decide to keep only one trade opened at the same time with a reasonable stop loss and with a bigger leverage. Assuming that you risk 5% of your capital per trade , you could use 0.1 lot at $300 margin with a stop loss of 50 pips ($50). If you apply a risk/reward ratio of 2 or more then you can expect 100 pips ($100) on each trade.
With this strategy you must lose 14 trades in a row ($700 loss at 50 pips stop loss) before not being able anymore to place a 0.1 order.
You need to win 35% of you trade to be flat because of the risk/reward ration of 2 minimum. (See the attached post about risk reward ratio)
Strategy 3: For scalpers, if you have a $1000 account, you can decide to keep only one trade opened at the same time with a reasonable stop loss and with a bigger leverage. Assuming that you risk 2.5% of your capital per trade, you could use 0.1 lot at $600 margin with a stop loss of 10 pips ($20). If you apply a risk#reward ratio of 0.5 then you can expect 5 pips profit ($100) on each trade.
With this strategy you must lose 20 trades in a row ($400 loss at 10 pips stop loss) before not being able anymore to place a 0.2 lot size trades simultaneously at 0.2 lot size. Obviously you really need to get a high winning rate to stay alive.
Hope you enjoyed this post.
Happy trading!
Moneymanagement
How to find high probability trends on any currency pair.This is a very descriptive example on how a trader can find high probability trades that are very unlikely to reverse. The markets are full of fractals so this strategy should be good for any timeframe but I highly suggest you use these timeframes as follows. If you place trades using the 4hr, use the daily for trend (example on the chart). If you place trades using the daily time frame (recommended) use the weekly time frame for the trend by using the same exact method but on the open, high, low, and close, of the weekly charts. Please leave a lime and comment as this encourages me to create new content for you guys every Friday. Feel free to message me. FX:EURUSD
Three things Mark Douglas taught me. (Pt2)
Risk & Money Management
Risk management, in my opinion, is equal in importance to psychology because it allows your trading strategy/edge to play out by keeping you in the market equity wise. There really isn’t much to risk management other than its number one rule, never risk more than 1% per trade. Risking one percent per trade allows your trading system to take losses and have drawdowns but not enough to the point that you won’t be able to get out of it. I’m actually not a big fan of risk so I place trades using less than 1% of my capital. A lot of traders would think risking .75% per trade based off of my trading strategy is ludicrous but to me, it makes a lot of sense. As a trend follower, I take multiple small losses and few big winners that make double, triple, or quadruple, the loss. Trend following is very difficult because of the multiple small losses but definitely pays off because it lets your winners run. Big winners and small losses are definitely a trader’s best friend because it allows you to have a high risk reward ratio. If you risk $1 per trade, your goal is to make at least $4 back. If you constantly trade looking for 4x your risk all you need to do is win more than 20% of the time to be profitable. (Ex: Win 1 trade=$4 Lose 4=$4=0) .To be profitable you have to win more than 1/5 trades or 20%. With that being said, risk management gets even better when you use money management. As you can tell from the title, money management and risk management are two different things in my opinion. This wasn’t always true though. The old me would've said risk management and money management are the same exact thing but now that I know what I know now, I completely disagree. Money management to me is where you spread your risk to give yourself an even bigger edge. To illustrate, let’s look at the example shown here. According to my trading strategy my risk would be .75% of my equity on this trade but I would "spread the .75%" by taking it and dividing it into six trades instead of placing it on one. Let’s say I have $1000 in my trading account with .75% of $1k being $7.5. I would take the $7.5 and divide it into six or $1.25 per trade. My trading system would've told me to take buy limit trades at 1.66308 and 1.66815 at .005 lots (possible through Oanda) at 25 pips stop loss. Unfortunately the trades would’ve been a loss of $2.50 total or -.25% but because I'm spreading the risk I would still be able to enter four more trades. The remaining four would be a buy stop at 1.6654, 1.67068, and two at 1.67980 in anticipation of price closing at 1.68300 for us to take profit. If we were to follow our trading plan and disregarded negative psychological energy, our end profit would be as follows: -$1.25, -$1.25, +8.73, $5.90= Total profit $12.13 or 1.2% gain.
Three things Mark Douglas taught me. (Pt1)Psychology
Psychology, like anything in life, plays a big role on how humans function. It affects the way we think, act, talk, and so on but when it comes to trading it affects us, oddly enough, in only one way and that’s through our emotions. Any experienced (or shall I say inexperienced) trader knows and understands the waves of overwhelming emotions that resonates based off of a trade that’s a loser. These emotions range from sadness, depression, anger, and the list goes on. The reason for this, if I’m not mistaken, is because of the pure fact that the money we use to trade with is hard earned and even when it’s not it’s something that rightfully belongs to us. Human nature is something that’s extremely difficult to change because it's part of our genetic make-up that has allowed us to stay for so long by encouraging us to stay away from things that we don’t understand or that will hurt us. Trading psychology is definitely the hardest thing to master when it comes to trading because your psyche works against you when you're being hurt mentally (losing trades) and works for you when you're euphoric (winning trades). As if this couldn’t get any worse, a hurting mentality will tap you into a pool of past failures or misfortunes that have happened to you in life and convince you to think you're not any good as a trader and that your strategy is useless. This baffled me when I learned this from Mark Douglas because it wasn’t something that I realized. This fact is very important because it means you and only you alone are able to break this cycle of assuming a bad trade means a bad setup. A losing trade has absolutely no correlation to you as a person so you shouldn’t assume that you're the reason why you have a losing trade. According to Mark Douglas, it only takes one person around the world to negate your edge. This basically means that when you're buying, someone around the world is selling. When there are more bears (sellers) than buyers (bulls) you're long trade is no longer able to be profitable and stops you out depending on your risk. The markets are full of newcomers and unprofitable traders that agree on the wrong thing together and thus makes the impossible or improbable possible. This gets even more tricky because it makes you, the person on the other side of the trade, feel unsuccessful. This is not true! A losing trade does not represent a bad setup but because our phycology wants to protect us from losing money (what hurts us) it tricks us into thinking that we are unsuccessful as traders. The solution to this is to simply accept the risk of the trade by trading a strategy or setup that is profitable through backtesting. Mr Douglas implored that back testing should be done through 20 trade sample size to give accurate results. When I first started trading back in late 2016 I would always hear profitable traders talk about trading psychology and not trading strategies. I never knew why until I tool Mark Douglas’ principals into consideration and for that I am grateful.
(see pt2)
Google-Buy on dipsWe like FAANG Facebook , Amazon , Apple , Netflix, and Alphabet
Then we play long with them
Major resistance : All time high , 1200
Major support : 1000
Major trend : Uptrend
Status : ranges in 1000-1200 (It could be triangle form - waiting market to pick direction)
Chance to buy (buy on dips) in area 1000-below
with SL below area 900 TP All time high / higher
Use 1%rule with Google, Margin 100USD : 10000USD portfolio
AUDUSD buy ideaFrom bigpicture, Longterm investment We choose buy side as our main strategy in Zone C, TP in Zone D, E or All time high
Major resistance 0.8
Major support 0.7
When to buy, Price action - pullback signal (H4/D1) in buy zone
Buy zone : 0.76 or lower
Short term - long term trading : TP, next resistance 0.8, 0.9
Stop loss (Short term) 0.68 or lower
Stop loss (Long term) 0.6 or lower
money management : Use 2% rule with leverage - margin that match with your trade setup.
[Strategy-1] AUDCHF Big-Picture Big picture for investor whom believe in AUD > CHF and want to long AUDCHF
ZONE A : Buy zone - advantage, Target zone B
Action plan
- Position : at 0.755, Try to move average cost down below this point
- Cashflow from Grid in zone A1 0.755 - 0.715 and A2 0.715- 0.68
Money management with 2% rule
Assume you have 10000 usd investment portfolio , 2% = 200 usd
1 order use 25 usd margin
* SL = 0 or 0.65 - 0.6 (ALL time low) up to your strategy
It's mean : you have 8 bullet can fire buy position
Simple plan
A1 = 4 bullet
A2 = 4 bullet
by Price action / pullback signal in H4 / D1 or Grid in Grid
BCHUSD waiting recover sign in buy zone 1200-600Major Resistance 1800
Major Support 600
Retracement from 1800 after recover from downtrend at support line 600
Chance to invest : Below 1200 to 600 when Price action (H4-D1) show recover signal
Buy with 2% of overall margin, SL=0
TIPS
for FOMO We could seperate 1 position to x position and grid it for make average cost still around 1200 lower
Ex. instead buy 1 with 100% size of order at 1200
We could buy first order with size 50% at 1400 and second order with size 50% at 1000 : average price of investment still 1200
FB Money Management StrategyWith the market taking a downturn as a whole, it creates some buying opportunities for some very profitable companies like Facebook.
Strategy: Take whatever amount you want to invest in FB and divide it into 4 equal parts.
1. Buy at each level I've indicated.
2. Sell at target price I've indicated.
I believe FB will go down in the short term and then eventually retest 193.09. I don't know exactly how far it will go down, but I believe it will bounce off one of the 4 levels I've indicated, and I don't think it will correct any lower than the bottom buy target (156.55). There is strong support there, and the business is very strong. If all buy targets are hit then you'll have an average cost basis of 167.26 giving you a 15.36% gain when it returns to 193.09. If it goes up before it hits all the targets, then you'll make less money then you would have if you'd been able to get the maximum exposure you'd allocated, but you'll still make money and that's something never to complain about. This strategy protects you from buying too high while allowing you to get some exposure to this very profitable company.
example
$10,000 desired exposure
$2,500 @ 178.77 (13 shares)
$2,500 @ 170.65 (14 shares)
$2,500 @ 163.07 (15 shares)
$2,500 @ 156.55 (16 shares)
Bull TrapBitcoin has always been a bull trap, investors got In early before praying on a rebellious section of the population to propose itself as the death of banks the end of inflation. little did these dumb money investors know they were in the deep end with sharks everywhere they are still dying praying for recovery which is entirely possible, but trading is dependent on a smart mature mind. do you panic when you see your stock falling? are you over leveraged? are you being greedy? its a beautiful game, long term I hope bitcoin and other cryptos show the world there potential so I'm all for it. ill be analysing and looking for a yearly position id like to see 5k again first happy trading give me a thumbs up
Bitcoin.edu: Low Risk Capital ManagementFor example you have 100.000 Total Capital
You can spend for One Trade: Only 10% of your Free Capital
Your Total Capital: 100.000
First Trade: 10.000
After 1st Trade your Free Capital: 90.000
Second Trade: 9.000
After 2nd Trade your Free Capital: 81.000
Third Trade: 8.100
After 3rd Trade your Free Capital: 72.900
Fourth Trade: 7.290
After 4th Trade your Free Capital: 65.610
Fifth Trade: 6.561
After 5th Trade your Free Capital: 59.049
Six Trade: 5.9049
and so on...
* You can increase 10% to 11-20 percent for trades
Practical Exercise - Gearing and ScalingPractical Exercise
Select any currency pair, go back to a point on your chart where you can clearly identify a lowest or highest point.
Based on this backtesting scenario, start to identify and practice the guidelines of gearing and scaling.
How much would you have gained from this move?
Compare it to the scenario where you only took one single trade and ride the full trend, would scaling in positions have given you a better profit potential?
NZDUSD - LONG. Primary Target - 0.73800.NZDUSD - LONG.
Primary Target - 0.73800
Stop Loss - 0.70400
Signals:
1) Completed Cypher Pattern (D1).
2) Candlestick Bullish Reversal Pattern (D1).
The 6 Golden Rules of Money Management:
1. Protect your gains and never enter into a position without setting a stop loss.
2. Always trade with a Risk-Reward Ratio of 1 to 1.5 or better.
3. Never over-leverage your account.
4. Accept your losses, move on to the next trade and trust the software.
5. Make realistic goals that can be achieved within reason.
6. Always trade with money you can afford to lose.
Trading Record - Risk Units Exercise This is an observation with educational purposes, for myself and for the people who might find it useful.
First of all, the results that are shown here are made from the last 13 trades that were published and TRIGGERED, here in the website. Each one of those trades are measure in terms of risk to reward, in other words terms of risk units.
Remember when you are going to place a trade you must have clear what % of your account you are going to risk, after you have that number, depending on the place from your entry to your of stop loss level you define your position size in order to match your risk amount
Below you can find in detail each one of the trades, is important that you see the description of each idea in order to see how was the trade management in each case
Trade 1
Trade 2
Trade 3
Trade 4
Trade 5
Trade 6
Trade 7
Trade 8
Trade 9
Trade 10
Trade 11
Trade 12
Trade 13