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💲Learn DXY - US. Dollar Index ✅Why Be Interested? The strong dollar has been getting a lot of attention lately. Some U.S. companies are blaming the strong U.S. dollar for lackluster earnings, while economists say it's helping the Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against high inflation. But how do you know when the dollar is strong or weak? That’s the job of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ☑️What Is the U.S. Dollar Index? The U.S. Dollar Index is a market index benchmark used to measure the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other widely-traded international currencies. The Federal Reserve established the dollar index in 1973 to track the value of the U.S. dollar. Two years earlier, President Richard Nixon had abandoned the gold standard, which allowed the value of the dollar to float freely in foreign exchange (forex) markets. Since 1985, the dollar index has been calculated and maintained by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). ☑️The Dollar Index History and Makeup The formula for calculating the value of the U.S. Dollar Index includes the dollar’s relative value compared to a basket of foreign currencies. Initially, it included the Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, Swiss franc, West German mark, French franc, Italian lira, Dutch guilder, and Belgian franc. Following the creation of the euro in 1999, the number of currencies was reduced and the formula for the dollar index was adjusted. Today, the basket includes just six currencies: the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF). ✅How Is the U.S. Dollar Index Used? The USDX allows traders and investors to monitor the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar relative to the six currencies included into the index's basket. Investors also use the dollar index as a litmus test for U.S. economic performance, particularly when it comes to imports and exports. The more goods the U.S. exports, the more international demand there is for U.S. dollars to purchase those goods. When demand for the dollar is high, USDX rises. ☑️Dollar Index Shortcomings: The weightings of the currencies used to calculate the index were based on the United States’ biggest trading partners in the 1970s. As a result, its calculation doesn't include emerging market currencies, like the Mexican Peso (MXN) or commodity currencies. It also doesn't include China’s renminbi (CNY), even though China is now the largest U.S. trading partner by a wide margin. Therefore, the index may be less useful as an economic measure than in previous decades. ✅What Makes the U.S. Dollar Strong? A combination of higher inflation, the Fed's aggressive tightening campaign and a global search for yield have all contributed to the strong dollar. A strong dollar means other global currencies have been relatively weak, which exacerbates inflationary pressures and financial market volatility. 📍In Conclusion: The Dollar Index can be used as a gauge of the Dollar strength or weakness, and it’s futures can be used to profit form Dollar moves without betting on any individual Dollar currency pair which provides diversification. However, the Index is somewhat outdated which needs to be accounted for when using it. ❤️Please, support our work with like & comment!❤️ Please, support my work with like and comment! Love you, my dear followers!👩‍💻🌸
Education
by AnabelSignals
6
How to Build Wealth (Even During Monetary Tightening)One question that many investors are asking right now is: How can I build wealth during monetary tightening? To answer this question, one must understand how the money supply works. The Money Supply The money supply refers to the total amount of currency held by the public at a particular point in time. M2 is one of the most common measures of the U.S. money supply. It reflects the amount of money that is available to be invested. M2 includes currency held by the non-bank public, checkable deposits, travelers’ checks, savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds. The chart above is a time-compressed view of the money supply. The time scale has been compressed such that the money supply appears as a vertical line with clusters of dots. Each dot represents a quarter (or 3-month period). During periods of monetary easing, when the central bank accelerates increases in the money supply, the dots stretch wider apart, as shown below. During periods of monetary tightening, when the central bank decelerates increases in the money supply, the dots tighten together. In rare cases, the central bank can reduce the money supply to fight inflation, in which case the dots can retrograde. The central bank rarely reduces the money supply because it usually results in economic decline. The Money Supply and The Stock Market Since the money supply reflects the amount of money that can be invested in the stock market, the stock market tends to track the money supply. As the money supply (M2SL) grows so too does the stock market (SPX). The chart above shows that despite the stock market’s oscillations, over the long term, the growth rate of the stock market tends to track the growth rate of the money supply. The stock market goes up, in large part, because the money supply goes up. The chart below is from the book Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel, Professor of Finance at the Wharton School. The chart shows that compared to other asset classes, stocks generally perform the best over time. Stocks generally perform the best over time because the growth rate of the stock market generally tracks the growth rate of the money supply fairly well. Investing in the stock market is therefore an efficient means of preserving wealth over the long term. One will always be better off investing in assets that grow in price at a faster rate than the rate at which the money supply grows than investing in assets that do not. When the money supply decreases during periods of monetary tightening, as is happening right now, only assets that outperform the money supply can produce positive returns. Knowing these facts, we can reach the following conclusion: Generally, investing in the stock market does not intrinsically build wealth, it merely efficiently preserves wealth over time against the perpetual erosion of an ever-increasing money supply. To build wealth one must invest in assets that grow in price faster than the rate at which the money supply grows . Preserving Wealth vs. Building Wealth As noted, to build wealth one must invest in assets that move up in price faster than the rate at which the money supply moves up. Investing in assets that move up in price over time, but at a rate less than that which the money supply moves up over time may seem like a good investment to an investor if the investor is making money, but such investments are not typically wealth-building. These investments are merely some degree of wealth-preserving. When the price of an investment increases over time at a rate less than the money supply, that investment causes a loss of wealth, despite giving the investor the perception of increased wealth. A loss of wealth occurs because the investor’s purchasing power is decreasing over the period of time which the investment is held. Purchasing power is the value of a currency expressed in terms of the number of goods or services that one unit of money can buy. It can weaken over time due to inflation. To keep things simple, let’s assume that other elements of inflation, such as money velocity, remain fairly constant and that an increasing money supply is the main cause of inflation. Let’s consider some case studies. Case Study #1: REITs Suppose an investor, John, invests his money in real estate investment trusts (REITs), specifically BRT Apartments Corp. John is a smart investor and does research before investing. In his research, he sees that BRT has decent profitability and a fair valuation. He also sees that BRT has decent growth potential. After analyzing fundamentals, John does technical analysis. He sees the below chart which shows a decades-long bull run. (Chart has been adjusted to include dividends) He thinks to himself: This asset is a money maker. Despite periods of corrections, price generally goes up over time. John then buys shares of BRT as part of a long-term investment strategy. John has done his due diligence and indeed he is right that, over the long term, his investment is likely to make quite a bit of money. However, if John invests in this asset, although he will make money, he will lose wealth or purchasing power. That’s because the Federal Reserve is increasing the money supply at a rate that is faster than John’s investment grows. Here’s a chart of BRT adjusted for the money supply (and adjusted to include dividends). Adjusting the price of BRT by the money supply shows a clear downtrend over time. This means that while BRT is growing in price and its investors are making money, BRT’s investors are generally losing purchasing power over time by investing in this asset because the central bank is increasing the money supply at a faster rate than the rate at which BRT's price grows. By increasing the money supply exponentially over time, central banks trick people into believing that they are building wealth by investing when in fact most investments are, at best, some degree of wealth preserving. Only a minority of assets outperform the money supply, and usually, that outperformance is temporary. In the era of monetary easing, during which central banks drastically increased the money supply using various monetary tools, perceived wealth skyrocketed. However, actual gains in purchasing power or improvement in living standards, as measured by increased productivity, largely did not occur. You may be thinking that I simply chose a bad investment to demonstrate my point. While BRT is actually a great investment relative to most other assets, let's move on to the second case study: an asset that has skyrocketed in price in recent years. You will find that even for assets that have outperformed the growth in the money supply, the period of outperformance is usually temporary. Case Study #2: Microsoft (MSFT) Microsoft is an example of a stock that has outperformed the growth rate of the money supply in recent years. Below is a chart of MSFT adjusted for the money supply. The chart shows that although the growth in MSFT's price generally outperforms the growth rate of the money supply, it undergoes prolonged periods of underperformance when investors can lose wealth. This wealth loss effect cannot be fully ascertained by looking only at a chart of just MSFT's price. It only becomes fully apparent when one compares the stock's price to the money supply. Tech stocks have generally outperformed the money supply since the Great Recession. They were excellent wealth-building investments. However, now that the central bank has begun monetary tightening, interest-rate-sensitive tech stocks are especially likely to decline. Investing in these assets while the money supply is decreasing, and while interest rates are surging, may result in loss of wealth. Case Study #3: Utilities (XLU) The chart below shows how well the utilities sector performed over the past two decades. Let’s adjust the chart to the money supply. (See chart below) You can see that XLU moved horizontally relative to the money supply, meaning that it merely preserves wealth to varying degrees but does not generally build wealth over the long term. By including the money supply in our charts, we remove the confoundment of monetary policy and elucidate the true intrinsic growth potential of assets. Case study #4: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Look at the chart below which shows ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), managed by Cathie Wood, relative to the money supply. Cathie Wood’s investment choices have actually caused a loss of wealth since the fund’s inception in 2014. You can see in the above chart that price is slightly below the center zero line, which means that wealth has been lost by those who invested in ARKK in 2014 and held continuously to the current time. Finally, check out the below chart of SPY relative to the money supply. The entire post-Great Recession bull run in SPY was merely a recovery of the wealth lost since the Dotcom Bust, over 2 decades ago. The stock market is ominously again being resisted at this peak level. The below chart shows that the stock market has given back much of the wealth built since the pre-Great Recession peak. In summary, wealth-building requires investing in assets with a growth rate that is greater than the growth rate of the money supply. To accomplish this, an investor should compare an asset against the money supply before choosing to invest. Assets that continuously outperform the money supply over the long term are better investments than those that do not. One can use standard technical analysis on the ratio chart to determine candidates that are most likely to outperform the money supply. In the face of high inflation, central banks must reduce the money supply. A decreasing money supply pulls the rug out from under the stock market. When the money supply is falling, corporate earnings and the stock market typically fall as well. Inflation When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world increased the money supply by an unprecedented amount. Throughout the course of its entire history up until the pandemic, the U.S. money supply moved up predictably within a log-linear regression channel, as shown in the chart below. Before the pandemic, the log-linear regression channel had an exceptionally high Pearson correlation coefficient (over 0.99), which suggests that the regression channel was reliably containing the money supply’s oscillations over time. When the pandemic hit the global economy came to a halt. The Federal Reserve increased the money supply by a magnitude that was so astronomical that it went up vertically even when logarithmically adjusted. (See the chart below) As a thought experiment, let’s assume that the log-linear regression channel above is valid and that data are normally distributed (typically they are not in financial markets). If it were the case that such a sudden, astronomical increase in the money supply occurred totally randomly, the event would be a 10-sigma event (meaning 10 standard deviations away from the mean). The chance of such a rare event happening totally randomly is so small that it would occur about once every 500,000 quadrillion years. Since this is much longer than the age of the known universe, a 10-sigma event is essentially equivalent to an event that will statistically never happen. Thus, no one was prepared for the action that the Federal Reserve took. By exploding the money supply by this extreme amount and flooding the market with so much newly created money, central banks instantly made everyone feel wealthier by giving them more money, but this action would eventually make everyone less wealthy by destroying their purchasing power as inflation ensued. Once high inflation begins, it can be hard to stop. When inflation stays high for too long the public begins to expect more of it. The public then alters its spending and saving habits. The public also begins to demand higher wages to keep up with high inflation. This creates a negative feedback loop: When workers receive higher wages to keep up with inflation, workers can afford to pay inflated prices which keeps inflation higher for longer. As workers get paid more, keeping demand high, companies also charge more for their goods and services. Eventually, workers again demand higher wages to keep up with yet even higher prices. At every stage of inflation, the best strategy for central banks is to downplay its true severity. This is because the easiest way to control inflation is by managing the public’s perception of it. The hard way to control inflation is to raise the cost of money – interest rates – which in turn induces economic decline, and which can cause financial crises as highly indebted consumers, companies and governments cannot afford higher interest payments. Bonds Government bond yields reached a record low during the COVID-19 pandemic. The chart below shows that interest rates – or the price of money – reached their lowest level in the nearly 5,000 years for which records exist. Since the start of 2022, interest rates have surged higher, breaking a multi-decade downtrend, and ushering the market into a new super cycle where interest rates will likely remain higher for the long term. Interest rates and the money supply are inextricably linked. Few people know why an inverted yield curve predicts a recession. An inverted yield curve reflects the destruction of money. When the yield curve is inverted, banks can no longer profitably borrow at short term rates and lend at long term rates. Bank lending creates the most amount of money. An inverted yield curve is a market perversion that does not occur naturally but occurs only through central bank action. Inverting the yield curve is a highly obfuscated tool that central banks use to decrease the money supply. Furthermore, as we discussed before, since the stock market generally tracks the money supply, an inverted yield curve is a warning that the stock market will fall in the future. Recently, the yield curve (as measured by the 10-year minus the 2-year U.S. treasury bonds) inverted by the most on record. Below is the chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). TLT tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. As you can see from the chart above, which excludes the past two years, it looks like TLT has been a great investment over the past two decades. (For this chart, I included dividends. TLT pays out dividends that derive from interest payments on its bond holdings.) Look at the chart below to see what happens when we adjust the chart for the money supply. In the chart above we see that since its inception TLT moved horizontally relative to the money supply. What this means is that holding TLT over this period was not wealth-building, but it was good at preserving wealth. Its price moved up in perfect lockstep with the money supply. Now, let’s see how TLT performed in the past two years. As we see in the chart above, until 2021, an investor who held long-term U.S. government bonds would have been preserving their wealth and shielding it from the erosion of perpetual increases in money supply. However, as interest rates on government debt surged higher as central banks fight high inflation, bond investors are now seeing major wealth destruction. In a stable monetary system, investing in government bonds should preserve wealth, since if it fails to do so, no one will buy bonds to finance the government. The situation is also concerning when we examine investment-grade corporate bonds (LQD) relative to the money supply. This chart of investment-grade corporate bonds adjusted for the money supply shows that we should be concerned about the current state of even the most high-grade corporate bonds. We see that the value of investment-grade corporate bonds over time, inclusive of their interest payments, has fallen off a cliff relative to the rate at which the money supply is increasing. This chart suggests that those who invested in corporate bonds have recently lost a lot of wealth. Until the current trend reverses, who would want to invest in corporate bonds? This is a problem for corporate finance. Below is a chart of high-yield corporate bonds (HYG), (which are riskier than investment-grade corporate bonds), as compared to the money supply. You can see from the chart above that all the wealth built by investing in high-yield corporate bonds since the Great Recession has been completely wiped out. What I am about to explain next will be somewhat dense. Look again at the two charts below which show investment-grade corporate bonds relative to the money supply and high-yield corporate bonds relative to the money supply. Recall that bond prices move inversely to bond yields. Thus, if we flip these charts of corporate bond prices, we will get corporate bond yields relative to the money supply. Now let’s think. These charts show that the yields on corporate bonds are moving up faster than the supply of money. Corporate bond yields reflect the amount of money that corporations must pay on their debt. In other words, the amount of money that corporations will have to pay to service their debt is moving up faster than the money supply. As noted previously, the money supply speaks to corporate earnings since corporations can only ever earn some subset of the total supply of money in the economy. Thus, if the money supply decreases, as it is now, corporate earnings will likely decrease as well. If the interest on corporate debt is moving up much faster than the money supply, and the money supply which reflects corporate earning capacity is decreasing, what might this say about the future? Mortgages In the chart below, I analyzed the current median single-family home price in the United States adjusted by the current average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (as a percentage). I then compared this number to the money supply. This chart gives us a sense of whether or not the Federal Reserve is supplying enough money to the economy to support the current expense of home ownership. As you can see, price is rapidly approaching the upper channel line (2 standard deviations above the mean), which signals that home ownership is the least affordable it has been since the early 1980s – the last time the upper channel line was reached. If one believes that the 2 standard deviation level is restrictive, then one may conclude that there is not enough money being supplied by the Federal Reserve to sustain such high home prices as coupled with such high mortgage rates. If the Federal Reserve does not pivot back to a less tight monetary policy soon, then there is a high probability that a housing recession will occur in the coming years. Perhaps what is more alarming is the below chart, which shows the EMA ribbon. The EMA ribbon is a collection of exponential moving averages that tend to act as support or resistance over time. When the ribbon is decisively pierced it reflects a trend change. We can see in the above chart, that for the first time since the mid-1980s, we have pierced through the EMA ribbon. This could be a signal that a new super cycle has begun, whereby a higher interest rate environment will persist alongside high inflation for the long term, potentially making homes less affordable for the long term. This is one of many charts that seem to validate the conclusion that inflation will remain persistently high for the long term. Commodities In the below chart, the price of commodities is measured as a ratio to the money supply. This chart informs us that commodity prices have broken their long-term downward trend relative to the money supply. The chart above shows commodities as a ratio to the money supply side-by-side an inverted chart of the S&P 500 as a ratio to the money supply. It appears that the ratio of commodities to the money supply reflects an inverse relationship to the S&P 500 and the money supply. Think about what these charts may be indicating. Could they suggest that in the face of a shrinking money supply, more money will flow out of the stock market into increasingly scarce commodities? In a deglobalizing world facing conflict, climate change, and declining growth in productivity, it’s unlikely that commodity prices will return to the extremely undervalued levels seen in 2020. One commodity, in particular, deserves its own discussion: Gold. Gold During a monetary crisis, the usual winner is physical gold. Since the dawn of human civilization, gold has played an important role in the monetary system. As a scarce commodity gold is often perceived as inherently valuable. In his 1912 book, The Theory of Money and Credit, Ludwig von Mises theorized that the value of money can be traced back ("regressed") to its value as a commodity. This has come to be known as the Regression Theorem. Once paper money was introduced, currencies still maintained an explicit link to gold (the paper being exchangeable for gold on demand). However, the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971 to curb inflation and prevent foreign nations from overburdening the system by redeeming their dollars for gold. Currently, gold is extremely undervalued when priced in U.S. dollars. The current fair dollar-to-gold ratio is currently about $7,200 per ounce of gold. This number is produced by dividing the year-to-year increases in the money supply by the yearly production of gold in ounces. Eventually, a monetary crisis will occur, and according to Exter’s Pyramid, investors will scramble for gold, which may force fiat currency to regress back to a gold standard to stabilize markets. Bitcoin In this final part, I will give a few thoughts on Bitcoin, as it relates to the money supply. Below, you will see that when charted as a ratio to the money supply, Bitcoin formed a nearly perfect double top in 2021. This chart could have warned traders that Bitcoin had topped in November 2021 given Bitcoin's inability to achieve a new high relative to the money supply. This shows that one can use the money supply in their charting as an additional layer of technical analysis. In the below chart, we see how Bitcoin's market cap is moving relative to the U.S. money supply. Bitcoin’s yearly chart is a bull flag relative to the money supply. There are very few assets outside of the cryptocurrency class that present as a bull flag relative to the money supply on their yearly chart. What might this chart reveal about Bitcoin's tendency to disrupt central banks' ability to conduct monetary policy? The Federal Reserve’s inability to stop people from converting dollars into Bitcoin to store wealth is a problem that will likely result in Bitcoin and other forms of decentralized finance coming under the greater scrutiny of the U.S. federal government. In the future, I plan to write a post on investing in cryptocurrency. In that post, I will explore Bitcoin and blockchain technology in much greater depth. Final thoughts To build wealth one must invest in assets that grow in price faster than the money supply erodes purchasing power. To become a successful investor, one must revolutionize one’s perception of money and understand that cash – or central bank notes – are worth nothing more than the belief that the government will persist and remain solvent. To build wealth an investor’s goal should not be to make as much cash as possible, rather an investor’s goal should be to convert cash into assets that grow faster than the money supply and to accumulate as much of such assets as possible.
FRED:M2SLEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
48
$gpt usdt 4hr candle crypto hidden gemlow cap hidden gem, bullish, GATEIO:GPTUSDT Scalable Layer-2 CryptoGPT is a layer-2 that uses zkRollup technology .The unique EVM-compliance makes the protocol open to massive codebase libraries, enabling easy and rapid onramp of developers and users. Truly Distributed CryptoGPT is carefully designed to be a network uncontrollable by centralized influence. The mining model and security align with activity. ‍ #ProofOfActivity ensures the network’s security increases in parallel to adoption. Totally Limitless Immensely scalable, ultra low-cost transactions combine with empowering infrastructure – data capsules, AI tooling, pluggable earn launcher – to create a blockchain that can expand the abilities of the global economy with the economics of AI.
GATEIO:GPTUSDTLong
by TechnicallyBullish
Why every trader need money management?Almost every trader, at some point in their career, wonders if they need money management. The answer is a resounding yes! Having the proper business mindset is essential to success in trading. This includes having the right attitude, being disciplined, and knowing how to manage your emotions. Without these things, it is very difficult to be successful in the markets. In this article, we will discuss why every trader needs money management. We will talk about the importance of having the proper business mindset, and we will also discuss some of the key components of an effective money management plan. By the end of this article, you will have a better understanding of why money management is so important for traders, and you will be able to start implementing some of these concepts into your own trading strategy. Business mindset Trading is a difficult business. It requires long hours, dedication, and a lot of hard work. But even with all of that, most traders still fail. Why is that? The answer is simple: they don't have the proper mindset. In order to be a successful trader, it is important to have the proper mindset. This means having the right attitude, being disciplined, and knowing how to manage your emotions. If you can master these things, you will be well on your way to success in the markets. Attitude is everything in trading. You have to be positive and believe in yourself, even when things are tough. Discipline is also key. You need to be able to stick to your trading plan, even when you are losing money. And finally, you must be able to control your emotions. Fear and greed are two of the biggest enemies of traders, so you must learn how to control them. If you can develop the proper mindset, you will be well on your way to success in trading. So what are you waiting for? Start working on developing the right attitude today! Manage losses When trading, it is essential to have a well-defined money management plan in place. This plan should include setting stop-loss orders and taking profits at predetermined levels. By having a plan in place, you can help keep your emotions in check and make more informed decisions about when to enter and exit trades. Stop-loss orders are placed with a broker in order to limit losses on a trade. When the price of the security reaches the stop-loss price, the trade is automatically sold. This type of order can be very helpful in managing risk, as it takes the emotion out of the decision of when to sell. Taking profits at predetermined levels is also important in money management. By doing this, you can take some emotion out of the decision of when to sell and lock in profits. It is important to remember that no one knows where the market will go in the future, so it is important to take profits when they are available. It is also essential to have a risk management strategy in place. This strategy should define how much capital you are willing to risk on each trade. It is important to remember that even the best traders lose money on some trades, so it is important not to risk more than you are comfortable with losing. By having a well-defined money management plan, you can help keep your emotions in check and make more informed decisions about when to enter and exit trades. This can ultimately help you improve your overall success as a trader. Confidence and self-control Confidence is key for any successful trader. A clear understanding of the market and your personal trading strategy is essential to maintaining a level head and making sound decisions. Being mindful of your successes as well as your failures allows you to learn from your mistakes and build upon your strengths. Practicing in a simulated environment gives you the opportunity to become more comfortable with the decision-making process before putting real money on the line. Self-control is another important aspect of trading. Emotions such as fear and greed can cloud your judgement and lead to poor decision making if left unchecked. Having a plan in place and sticking to it can help you stay focused on your goals even when things get tough. Diversifying your portfolio is also crucial in managing risk and ensuring that you don't put all of your eggs in one basket. By developing confidence and self-control, traders can set themselves up for success. These qualities can help them make sound decisions, manage risk, and stay calm in the face of market volatility. Keeping emotions out of trading When it comes to trading, one of the most important things that you can do is keep your emotions in check. This can be difficult to do, but it is essential for success. One of the best ways to keep your emotions in check is to have a system or strategy in place that you stick to no matter what. This will help take the emotion out of the decision-making process. Additionally, it is important to know when to walk away from a trade. If you are feeling emotional about a trade, it is often best to just step away and take a break. It is also important to have the discipline to stick to your system or strategy even when it might not seem like the best thing to do in the moment. By keeping your emotions out of trading, you will be more likely to make sound decisions and be successful in the long run. Decision making Traders need to be aware of their goals if they want to be successful. This means having a clear understanding of the risks and rewards involved in each decision. It is also important to have a plan for how to execute each decision, as well as being prepared to accept the consequences of those decisions. Making sound decisions is crucial for traders. What are your goals? Are you looking to make a quick profit or build your portfolio over the long term? Once you know, you can develop a plan that takes into account the potential risks and rewards involved in each decision. For example, if you are looking to make a quick profit, you might be more willing to take on more risk. On the other hand, if you want to build your portfolio over the long term, you might be more conservative with your trades. It is also important for traders to identify when they are making an emotionally-based decision. Emotions can cloud our judgment and lead us to make poor decisions. If you find yourself getting emotional about a trade, walk away and come back later with a clear head. Additionally, it is crucial to have the discipline stick to your system or strategy even when it might not seem like the best thing to do in the moment. Making sound decisions requires traders have a clear understanding of their goals, the risks and rewards involved in each decision, and how emotions can impact their ability make rational decisions. By having plan and sticking it, traders increase their chances success in the markets. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Lingrid
12
The Simpliest Math Behind Every Succesful TraderWhat exactly is risk management? The ability to control your losses so that you do not lose all of your equity is referred to as risk management. This is a system that may be applied to everything that involves probabilities: trading, poker, blackjack, sports betting, and so on. Many inexperienced traders underestimate the significance of risk management or don't understand the basics when it comes to risk management. Would you risk $5,000 on every trade if you had a $10,000 trading account? Probably not. Because it only takes two consecutive losses in order to lose everything. 🧠 Now, let's imagine a thought experiment, in wich 🤩Alex and 🤨Peter are both traders with $10,000 in their accounts. Alex is a high-risk trader who puts $2500 risk on every trade. Peter is a cautious trader who puts $100 risk on every trade. Both apply a trading strategy that has a 50% success rate with an average risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2. For good example, let's imagine the next 8 trades had the following results: 4 losing trades in a row 4 winning trades in a row Here is the result for Alex: -$2,500, -$2,500, -$2,500, -$2,500 = -$10,000 Loss of the total account 😭😭😭😭 Here is the result for Peter: -$100, -$100, -$100, -$100, +$200, +$200, +$200, +$200 = +$800 Profits. 🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆 Can you tell the difference? See how risk management show the difference between being a profitable or losing trader. Peter managed to recover losing trades, and get into good profits after 8 trades. Alex didn't survive 4 trades... 🚨 You might have the finest trading strategy in the world, but if you don't manage how much you lose, you'll lose it all. It's only a matter of probability and time. However, following this basic example will assist you to make your trading more profitable. Simply give it a shot. Kind regards Artem Crypto Follow, Like and Share are appreciated! Take a look at my other Educational ideas below:
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by ArShevelev
12
Biases that influence your decisions Biases that influence your investment decisions Most people who invest in the stock market don't reach their goals. The top 1% of investors can double or even triple their returns from the market. Reason: how investors think How this article will help you avoid these biases: * Awareness - Knowing what biases affect your decision making is half the battle. *Routine: I've made a list of biases that affect your analysis and biases that make you overestimate investments. Cognitive frivolity All of the following biases work so well because of the way people's minds work. Cognitive light-mindedness is a state of mind that is wanted and linked to good feelings. This is the main reason why people make bad choices. Halo effect It is much easier to think in black-and-white stereotypes than in gray ones. The halo effect explains why we like or dislike everything about someone or something that is connected to them. It's harder than we think to agree with some ideas and disagree with others. What You See Is All There Is All there is is what you see. You can't think about something you don't know. In a strange way, self-righteousness goes up when you only listen to one point of view. Again, we choose certainty over uncertainty. Anchoring Our decisions are mostly based on the first information we get. If you know that Apple shares are worth $150, they will look like a good deal at $120. Not even knowing if $150 is close to what something is really worth. Regression (Correction) We love to find links between things that don't have any. Regression to the mean can be one of the most important, but often overlooked, factors. Due to price balancing, everything tends to be worth about the same. Perceptual bias We think that events were easier to predict than they really were because of what we already thought. In hindsight, it's easy to make up connections between things. The truth, though, is more complicated. There are a lot of good ways to guess what will happen. The Fallacy of Mastery Both buyers and sellers know the same things. They buy and sell stocks based on what they think. People don't believe that short-term stock picking is good luck because it's done by smart people. Loss aversion Loss aversion makes us ignore even gambling that has a good chance of going our way. A loss has twice the weight of an equal gain. Dedication bias Commitment is linked to good traits like consistency and intelligence. In this way, we don't break our promises. Investment decisions must be talked about in public. The more you talk, the more you can persuade yourself of something. Leaning toward recent events We tend to give too much weight to things that have happened recently. Because of this effect, the market tends to move in a certain direction most of the time. When things are going well, we think they will only get better. We think that when things go wrong, they will only get worse. Effect of ownership When we own something, we value it more. This is one way we can explain why we did what we did. Before we buy a stock, we look at it critically and try to find any risks. After making a purchase, we think about the good things about it to justify our choice. This is called confirmation bias We choose what to believe based on what we already know. What doesn't fit with our ideas is either ignored or called a lie. Thinking based on odds We often think based on how we feel. But in our lives, everything is a game of chances. Using reasoning to think about the most likely outcomes will help us make better decisions. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Crypto4light
24
Market efficiencyWhat is market efficiency, how does it affect earning potential? What does "market efficiency" mean, and how does it affect the chances of making money? Today, we'll talk about how well the crypto market works. We'll look at how quickly it takes in new information and how you can make money from price changes. We are also looking to the near future, when efficiency will go up and there will be less cash and inefficient niches. How Does the Market Work? The speed and accuracy with which information about projects and assets is added to the price shows how efficient the market is. This happens almost right away in markets that work well, but it takes a long time or doesn't happen at all in markets that don't work well. For instance, the US stock market in 1906 is not very good at what it does. Then there was an earthquake in San Francisco, and only three days later, the shares of the Pacific Railroad fell apart. The news from east to west moved too slowly. In 2022, the oil market works well. As soon as OPEC and other countries talked about how they could work together to set a high cap on oil prices, the price went up. That is, no one even raised the ceiling. The price goes up right away because OPEC+ lets this happen. In general, the idea of how well a market works is a theory. Economists have been arguing about whether or not it works for the past 50 years. This idea comes in three different forms. Weak Efficient Market Hypothesis: All market information from the past is included in the price of an asset. Average Efficient Market Hypothesis: The price of an asset includes all market information from the past and all publicly available information from the present. Strong Efficient Market Hypothesis: The price of an asset takes into account all market information from the past, public information from the present, and insider information. We won't keep going back and forth between ideas. The article only needs to know that efficiency is a measurement of how quickly and accurately the market takes in information. Another question is where this information came from. What determines how well the market works? The most important thing is just one thing: the number of trades and how liquid the market is. The market will be more efficient if there are more transactions, and less efficient if there are less. From the amount of money in the market, other things grow: the speed of transactions, the infrastructure, and the speed at which information comes out. But in general, they show up on their own when there are enough investors for someone to want to make money on investment infrastructure. For instance, the elite art market doesn't work well. Not a lot of artists charge a lot for their paintings, and not a lot of people are willing to buy them. There, news moves slowly from person to person. The price is not set by the way the market works. Instead, it is set by haggling. This also works in the stock markets. For "blue chips" like Apple, which are traded by the most investors, the difference in price between buy and sell orders is very small. This means that at any time, the market can very accurately figure out the fair value of the security. Spreads widen where there is less liquidity, and it can be hard to figure out what a fair price is: it "walks" in the spread gap. Here, by the way, the ideas of people who believe that markets take in information so quickly that it is impossible to make money on them fall apart. Everything is simple: if markets are really so efficient that you can't make money by having more information, traders and capital would have left long ago, liquidity would have collapsed, markets would have become inefficient again, and capital would have returned. But we don't talk about the theory here. If you are interested in cryptocurrencies, why do you need to know this? Yes, it is useful even if you are not interested in cryptocurrencies. By definition, it's hard to make money in markets that work well. If the market is working well, it quickly takes in new information and reacts to what's going on around it. This means that any results of fundamental or technical analysis have already been factored into prices by other market participants. You can buy and sell things, but it will be like a casino. It's easier to make money when markets don't work well. The less efficient a market is, the more likely it is that you can learn more about the other people in it, act faster, and make more money. Can cryptocurrency be seen as a market that works well? The article was written so that this math could be done. No, is the short answer. In one of the most recent studies, experts compared Bitcoin prices to the prices of gold, the S&P500, and the USD/EUR currency pair, which are all well-known assets. The rate of price change was multiplied by the market capitalization to figure out how well the market worked. It turned out that the crypto market is much smaller than traditional markets, but here information is "absorbed" much more quickly. This is because trading goes on 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and information spreads quickly. Also, it's not hard to start trading. But trading in BTC is not as good as trading in traditional assets. It is clear that the efficiency of most other currencies is even lower, and somewhere in the NFT segment, it is much lower. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Crypto4light
Market Bias & Top Stock Watches - 2/16/2023 - Bearish GrinderBias: Bear chop. Bit of support near 409, under that room to 406. Big gap down at support so expect an early bounce. Top Watches: I will update this post with my top four long and short ideas between 9:25 - 9:30 EST. Tune in to my stream at 9:45 EST for my full list of top stock watches and to watch me trade them Live! Follow @JLaing for a timely morning bias of the market like this, top stock watches, and live day trading every morning!
AMEX:SPY
by JLaing
Analysis of the Gold Market 1H TFEIGHTCAP:XAUUSD Hello, let's dive into a simple chart analysis of the gold market and identify future opportunities. Don't hesitate to provide detailed comments or questions. Wishing everyone good luck, trade safely this week and always remember to secure your profits. *Don't forget to fuel up with coffee ladies and gentlemen! :coffee: :peace: --- Please note that these ideas are for informational purposes only and should not be taken as IDEAS . It is important to conduct your own research and make informed decisions before making any trades. ---
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by GDB333
2
I would lie to you that I am very special!This is an event that has spread all over the real and virtual space these days I am better than you, more beautiful than you, smarter than you But the reality is something else But we know the truth! You and I are human, we have our merits and demerits, we all lied, we were all kind, we were both good and bad! we are equal .. With this introduction, I wanted to get here that we in the financial markets are involved with an equal scale of types of risk It means that if I am facing some risks, you are also facing almost the same risks! So, of course, if we are profitable but have a low win rate, or vice versa, we have a high win rate, but we may not be profitable in the long term. Accepting this risk is the most basic step of entering the market. I think money management and risk management are the only keys to success Our learnings about technical and fundamental analysis only play a role in reducing or increasing the risk of our trade!
Education
by HoneyCreateMoney
💲Learn DXY - US. Dollar Index ✅Why Be Interested? The strong dollar has been getting a lot of attention lately. Some U.S. companies are blaming the strong U.S. dollar for lackluster earnings, while economists say it's helping the Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against high inflation. But how do you know when the dollar is strong or weak? That’s the job of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ☑️What Is the U.S. Dollar Index? The U.S. Dollar Index is a market index benchmark used to measure the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other widely-traded international currencies. The Federal Reserve established the dollar index in 1973 to track the value of the U.S. dollar. Two years earlier, President Richard Nixon had abandoned the gold standard, which allowed the value of the dollar to float freely in foreign exchange (forex) markets. Since 1985, the dollar index has been calculated and maintained by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). ☑️The Dollar Index History and Makeup The formula for calculating the value of the U.S. Dollar Index includes the dollar’s relative value compared to a basket of foreign currencies. Initially, it included the Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, Swiss franc, West German mark, French franc, Italian lira, Dutch guilder, and Belgian franc. Following the creation of the euro in 1999, the number of currencies was reduced and the formula for the dollar index was adjusted. Today, the basket includes just six currencies: the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF). ✅How Is the U.S. Dollar Index Used? The USDX allows traders and investors to monitor the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar relative to the six currencies included into the index's basket. Investors also use the dollar index as a litmus test for U.S. economic performance, particularly when it comes to imports and exports. The more goods the U.S. exports, the more international demand there is for U.S. dollars to purchase those goods. When demand for the dollar is high, USDX rises. ☑️Dollar Index Shortcomings: The weightings of the currencies used to calculate the index were based on the United States’ biggest trading partners in the 1970s. As a result, its calculation doesn't include emerging market currencies, like the Mexican Peso (MXN) or commodity currencies. It also doesn't include China’s renminbi (CNY), even though China is now the largest U.S. trading partner by a wide margin. Therefore, the index may be less useful as an economic measure than in previous decades. ✅What Makes the U.S. Dollar Strong? A combination of higher inflation, the Fed's aggressive tightening campaign and a global search for yield have all contributed to the strong dollar. A strong dollar means other global currencies have been relatively weak, which exacerbates inflationary pressures and financial market volatility. 📍In Conclusion: The Dollar Index can be used as a gauge of the Dollar strength or weakness, and it’s futures can be used to profit form Dollar moves without betting on any individual Dollar currency pair which provides diversification. However, the Index is somewhat outdated which needs to be accounted for when using it. Please, support our work with like & comment! What do you want to learn in the next post?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
4
Long on OIL based on USD and ChinaFundamental: The reopening of the Chinese economy could lead to an increase in demand for oil. Chinese authorities have issued an additional batch of oil import quotas for domestic refiners On the other hand, Chinese oil inventories have already surpassed those of the United States, mainly thanks to off-shore crude oil storage Global off-shore crude inventories at extremely high levels compared to all-time highs. However, they are still below levels at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, when prices fell to extremely low levels. At the same time, operating rates at Chinese refineries in the Shandong region are below historical averages, meaning oil demand has yet to respond to China's reopening. Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to climb to $105 a barrel by the end of 2023. The weakness of the dollar also helped support energy prices. The February contract on a barrel of WTI crude gained 1.9% on Friday, to end at 79.86 dollars, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Technical: Price forming a Double Bottom (neckline reached) High volume on $88.0 MMA20 about to increase crossing MMA50 Price over both Moving Average 10% aimed Possible hedging strategy by Buying USD/CAD
FX:USOILLong
by thefrenchsniper
How Much to Recover After a Trading DrawdownA Drawdown is a drop in a portfolio value after one or more trades. It’s when the portfolio dips from the highest high. Once you’ve entered into the inevitable drawdown phase, you’ll need to know how much you’ll need to recover. That’s where the drawdown calculation comes in… The Drawdown Formula to recover after a portfolio drop Let’s use three examples of traders with drawdowns. Example #1: Timon is down 5% of his portfolio in the last three months. Example #2: Alex is down 50% of her portfolio in the last three months. Example#3: Artemis is down 76% of their portfolio in the last three months. Next we’ll need the Drawdown Formula Required gain = -1 Let’s put in three drawdown percentages to see what we need to recover to get our portfolios back to what they were… EXAMPLE #1: Timon’s drawdown = 5% Required Gain = – 1 = – 1 = 5.26% EXAMPLE #2: Alex’s drawdown = 50% Required Gain = – 1 = – 1 = 100% EXAMPLE #3: Artemis’s drawdown = 76% Required Gain = – 1 = – 1 = 316% In the above examples, I need to recover 5.26% of my portfolio to get it back to its highest level. While Alex and Artemis needs over 100% and 316% to return their portfolios to what they were. Now you know how to calculate what you need to recover after a trading drawdown. FINAL WORDS Do you now get that you need to take your drawdowns more seriously? With any business or venture, you should always be wary when you enter into a tough time. In fact, you should never be down more than 20% on your trading portfolio, business or in any other financial venture… Once you start going below 20%, it will take a heck of a lot longer to get back to what it was… That’s why this article is only part one… Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader (Est. 2003) Feel free to follow our socials below.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
How to Create a Trading Plan for Trading Success! Hey Traders so I figured because it's a new year why not start the year off right by setting us up for success. Having a trade journal or Trading Business Plan may be one of the most overlooked aspects of trading. However in my opinion it will separate those who are successful from those who are not. Trading is a game of probabilities and odds. Mistakes made are sometimes be very costly. Sticking to your trading plan along with money mangagement will allow us to survive the storm that we may face in the event of a drawdown. Also when we are up and riding the wave it will keep us from letting Fear, Greed and Hope getting in the way of profits. Enjoy, Trade Well Clifford
COMEX:GCG2023Education
by TradeTheIndex
2
GU long swing trade 20.12.2022Hello folks! I've returned for the 2023 trading season. see a long in GU. Expect a target entry price in the green zone. if triggered, will hold the trade for 2-3 days. depending on how far it runs. normal risk is fine for this entry. Long GU till end of the year. Plan your risk and trade position sizes accordingly. This is not trade advice, just an opinion on the markets. Trading can lead to excessive losses and complete loss of one's equity if not managed properly
Long
by voxovFX