Cyber Monday saleUp to 70% OFF

Moneyprinting

20% Increase in Currency Supply in 4 months!Just making an observation that the total amount of currency in circulation (Physical + Bank Credit) has increased an unprecedented 20% in the last 4 months. I believe, when we are looking at this chart, we are looking at a Credit Bubble. Something that bothers me. Current National Debt is around $24.2T, however, we have $18.4T in total dollars in circulation. So even if you use every dollar in existence to pay off the National Debt, you still have $5.8T USD in debt remaining... how does that get paid off?? Need to dig more into this.
FRED:WM2NS
by PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS
Gold has plenty of room to run relative to money supplyGold approaches all time highs against the dollar (and is already at ATH against pretty much every other currency), and some might say the metal is getting a little overheated. But when compared to the money supply (M2), gold has a lot of room to run in the coming years and the chart looks extremely bullish. I believe the strength in the chart is a reflection of the fundamental macro picture of a totally reckless Fed brrrrr machine combined with no political willpower on either side of the aisle to slow down fiscal spending. With that in mind, it looks like this bull market is just getting started.
Editors' picks
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZChartDoc
19
Bulls Don't Get Your Hopes UpRetail is plowing into USO, tech, and US stocks. Even with the "Fed Liquidity", the 1st quarter of 2020 was the largest QoQ contraction in credit conditions EVER. The fundamental economic data is putrid. The worst ever. and REMEMBER, corporate profits peaked in late 2018, which is also when the Russell 2000 entered a bear market. The SPX was saved from crashing by a Fed that slashed interest rates in 2019, but with this biggest global shock we have ever seen and with money supply velocity at ZERO, there's nothing that traditional monetary policy can do for the markets. Markets bounced off of hope and optimism given to them by Mnuchin. Don't trust the administration. Things are about to get UGLY UGLY
SP:SPXShort
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
20
Money Velocity is in Complete FreeFallM2V most recent data is from December 2019. It is likely near zero at the present moment. Some voices are saying that the Fed liquidity and balance sheet expansion is inflationary, but the charts tell a different story. The velocity of M2 is in complete freefall. We have reached the point where interest suppression is no longer an effective tool for monetary policy. It doesn't matter how low rates go or how much the Fed is willing to lend, people don't want to spend or borrow, and insolvent businesses are going to self-liquidate. People are hoarding cash, and rightfully so. You can't print your way out of a global demand shock and supply shock. If you study M2V closely, it tells a story. What you'll see is that the Fed has been in a liquidity trap for the last 20 years. To avoid a big deflation they've pushed rates lower and lower to stimulate growth now and push the problems down the road, but now we're at the end of the road and facing a bigger deflation than we could have ever imagined. There's no more growth to stimulate.
FRED:WM2NS
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
2
GDP? More Like Debt-Financed ConsumptionNotice the time period where the rate of change began to significantly increase. Sad that TV doesn't have the data but if you go and look, inflation from 1700-1900 was extremely stable. Not the "2%" per year inflation of today, was more like gradual deflation over time, with certainty that your money would be worth the same 100 years from now. During the classic gold standard era, from 1870-1910, real growth averaged 8-10% per year, and we had 3% deflation per year. The banking system of today is based off of printing lots of money, getting caught in a liquidity trap, and then being at risk of a major deflation because you thought you were smart enough to inflate an asset bubble with no consequences. That's where we are at right now. Very similar to 1929.
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
OIL how low can you go?Historically oil has been in a down trend for almost 20yrs, along with the trend current global conditions are removing demand from the equation with average expected decreases of 2 million barrels a day! To make matters worse supply has not decreased at all! Multiple oil producing nations are continuing production regardless of decreased demand and prices, causing a HUGE glut in supply that is demanding storage of the oil in some unconventional ways. I believe there will be more downside to the oil price in the near future, but with the continued money printing by all central banks oil just may break the downward wedge it has created and see ever higher nominal prices along with every other commodity when the money hits the fan. God Speed!
TVC:USOILShort
by AMERICANHANDYMAN
Money Printer Low Ink Level Alert!"PC load letter, WTF does that mean?" It appears JPows money printer may be running low on ink. $SPY has been showing un-impenetrable strength, despite the global pandemic leaving thousands dead, sick, or out of work. However it appears we're seeing solid resistance at the 0.618fib level on the basic fib channel. This could simply be a breather while the boys upstairs reload the printer with ink and paper as we go to retest the 0.5 level. Things will be interesting if we continue to trade sideways between these two support/resistance levels- which is what I assume will happen for the next ~month (at least next trading week) as we remain hopeful yet waiting still for any tangible positive outcome. Had success with bullish plays this past week. Diversifying my moves with some short term bearish plays, and set up some solid long term bull calls for the year. Naturally i made few small inverse'd plays to protect my funds in case I'm wrong, as can often happen It's these 'make-it or break-it' moments in trading that really gets my rocks off. A true test of ones ability to confidently pick a side with an executable exit strategy. Place your bets ladies and gentlemen, things may get interesting. open to critiques and what you all think?! Wash your hands, and as always happy trading! AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPY
by NillaCoin
6
US Stock Market Making 2nd Attempt at Parabolic Blow-Off TopI believe we will get either a blow-off top in the S&P or a fundamental event that kills the expansion, sending price below the magenta rising support line. If the Fed is too slow to expand the balance sheet, then stocks can correct significantly until the Fed eases adequately. If Trump wins and the Fed expands their balance sheet in 2020 at a fast enough pace, then spx will enter a blow-off top mania. If Bernie or Warren win, a significant correction will take place but SPX may bounce once rates hit zero or negative. If the Fed is slow to move (quite likely) then SPX will swing really violently and could get scary for some investors and traders In my view, the SPX is only worth trading, it is not worth investing in. Now is the time to be getting out of US stocks and US dollars and into emerging markets and commodities. Sometimes being a better investor means passing up immediate returns via central bank fueled irrational exuberance and waiting for an even better opportunity later once the music has stopped and everyone has been exposed. Impossible to predict the top, so better off not fully participating.
SP:SPX
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1
Accelerating Inflation is the Elephant in the Room Back in early October I posted a commodities chart. On that chart I shared my thesis that Gold's 6-year breakout in May would retest and commodities would follow on the next leg up. I later posted that "unofficial QE would add fuel into inflationary forces". With Gold breaking out of its healthy correction, inflation hitting 9-year highs, the Fed saying they will not raise rates until they see and significant and sustained increase in inflation and the fundamentals deteriorating, I see the potential for a huge surge in inflation in 2020 and 2021. Especially because its the trade that is most unhedged. Most investors are prepared for deflation - aka if stocks and real estate fall. Almost none are prepared for a rally in inflation, falling dollar, and surging commodities. Strong breakout in TIP with very strong volume. The TIP Bond ETF is a way to hedge yourself against rising inflation and as a way to visualize inflation sentiments in the market. Notice the 3 lows at support coincided with Gold's low in 2013, generational low in 2015, and then in late 2018 when the Fed was being very hawkish, talking about autopilot QT and 4 rate hikes in 2019. Additionally, the moving averages and volume are showing there's more room for growth. The more I look at the facts, rates of change, and the charts, the more I'm convinced the US dollar simply cannot maintain its current level. The Dollar has been flat at 96-97 in 2019, which is impressive given all that has happened. Fed promising to not raise rates until we see a significant and sustained rise in inflation. Federal debt is growing at an unsustainable rate. All-time high twin budget deficits. Additionally, the Fed did a massive U-turn and provided massive liquidity to the market in 2019 due to the 3 rate cuts and QE on emergency levels. Silent QE is growing faster than during official QE. The fiscal stimulus from record spending and tax cuts plus the massive monetary stimulus has helped push us to 9-year highs in rate of change for CPI inflation. Since Q4 2018, Gold has increased from 1180 to 1550 with a high correlation to the TIPS ETF and gold stocks have outperformed the S&P500. The inflation move has already started and few are seeing it, but most investors remain oblivious or unprepared for a significant and sustained increase in inflation. With the rate of change for inflation rising and the relevant fundamentals deteriorating and 2020 being an election year for Trump, this inflation or "reflation" trend that began in Q4 of 2018 looks to pick up speed in 2020. The Fed wants a cheaper dollar to satisfy the Repo market and Trump wants a cheaper dollar to "stimulate" the economy enough to get reelected. With these strong fundamental drivers and technical confirmations, look for the DXY to continue to build a downward trend as it heads to 93 and lower. Those that think central banks can do QE forever without creating inflation and devaluing the currency are wrong. Commodities have shown signs of life at times over the last few months - platinum, silver, copper, some agriculture. I just want to reiterate - with the fundamentals worsening and the rate of change for inflation increasing - in addition to a break out on the TIP chart, highly bullish breakouts in Gold, breakout in Feds balance sheet, and breakout in government spending- there's a good chance we can get big surges in inflation assets in 2020 and 2021. Things to watch out for: - Pay close attention to interest rates and the Fed. The better we can understand the Fed's intentions the better we can trade and invest accordingly. - The Fed has said they will not raise rates until they see significant and sustained inflation. Keep an eye on how fast inflation rises. If inflation surges and the Fed doesn't hike and potentially cuts, gold and commodities will fly. - The "market" needs debt expansion to keep itself sustained. Keeping rates flat and doing a certain amount of QE per month will eventually be insufficient to keep stocks and bonds propped up and rates suppressed. Over the next 6-12 months keep an eye on the Fed's operations, any changes or growth, and any liquidity crunches. The Fed may front-run any liquidity crunch by announcing an official QE program. This is bullish Gold. Watch what they do. If they are slow to act or become hawkish, they could deflate the bubble. - Watch the price action and trend shifts on the DXY.
AMEX:TIPLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
9
US Dollar Has Entered Its Next Multi-Year Bear CycleWe are only 1 or 2 years away from another full-blown global competition for currency devaluation. The next crisis will NOT be like 2008. In 2008 we began the crisis with the US Dollar Index (DXY) at an all-time record low and the crisis caused a flood into the dollar. Where we are now is much more similar to 2000: High dollar, high stock market, quiet commodities market, incoming easy money policies. Additionally, the Fed is acting very preemptively. They will not wait until recession is blatant before they take action (like in 2008), they're already doing QE4, which means if the economy turns lower even more ---> they will launch an official and permanent asset purchasing program in order to keep rates low. We are at the beginning of the end game now: Which is a global race to devalue the currency in order to keep asset prices up and to enable insolvent governments to continue to print and borrow. The global banking system will soon need massive central bank interventions, bigger than anything we've seen before. Look for a new all-time low in the DXY below 70 to be set before the mid-2020s.
TVC:DXYShort
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
9
Ford Chart: Different Trade IdeasThis chart shows a number of possible directions that price could take and is meant to spawn multiple trade ideas. I firmly believe in diversifying positions and trade ideas within the holdings of one individual asset, but I posted up an example with targets for a long trade that will help to manage risk by utilizing major resistance, as well as Fib levels, the Gann Fan (always a 45 degree angle), the Stochastic, and the Awesome Oscillator. I also tossed in an Elliott Impulse wave on the big spike so that you can see how you might trade a big breakout and know which phase you're in during the trade. Regardless, your satisfaction with this trade idea will depend on your fundamental views of auto-manufacturing. If you think American auto manufacturers are going to get crushed, don't buy it. I do not believe that that trend will continue on a long term basis. Happy Hunting Everyone.
NYSE:FLong
by Piptocurrency
8
Longterm view on GoldPretty self explanatory, shaded areas are where I think price will turn, based on unfilled orders existing right outside those candles. I'm particularly convinced by Jim Rickards(youtu.be), who argues that gold will go through a severe re-pricing whenever the relentless expansion of central bank balance sheets overwhelms the low-yield, deflation-biased economy we're currently in. QE/Stimulus does not work (currently ECB/JCB have been buying ~$200b worth of stuff EVERY MONTH) and all that misspent capital will have to be accounted for one way or another, ultimately through inflation. We're going to experience an inflationary episode much like the 70's when the dollar depegged from gold and the world became pure fiat, except the paradigm shift this time around is for permanent money creation to become the norm, aka helicopter money, which arguably is a more sensible form of money (read here: en.wikipedia.org(1860s_money)). When the debts placed upon us become monetized by the very central banks they originate from, it will be known that deflation is dead, and there will be nothing stopping inflation from taking over and reclaiming all that misspent capital. Now is a risky time to go long general bonds/equities, focus on preserving wealth rather than chasing yield. %5-10 in physically owned gold makes fine sense as insurance against severe market, rare as their occurrences may be, and the price currently seems quite fair. Gold made a drastic climb up from 1050 to 1250, assuming 1050 is a reliable floor the worst we'll see for gold going forward is probably the 1090-1120 range. Although, it's totally possible the ComEx paper market gets slammed for whatever reason, if they are that bold then I don't really expect anything worse than 900. If you buy physical gold you shouldn't have any plans to sell it for at least three years.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by pjlbtv