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Moneysupply

Decisive USD level affecting all financial marketsThe graph: TVC:DXY*1000000000000/ECONOMICS:USM2 (without *10000... scales equal to 0 ) DXY - the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies. DXY is a key economic and trading value. It's changes impact/reflect values of stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies and other financial instruments. M2 (US money supply '2') is closely watched as an indicator of money supply and future inflation, and as a target of central bank monetary policy. Technical Inference Technical analysis displays strong existing resistance+support lines formed by the blue parallel channel. Numerous touching/turning points in major and minor lines. Considering strong correlation with resistance and support lines, improvement in analysis and trading accuracy may be achieved. DXY/Money Supply 2 had hit its 3rd peak recently. I believe we will see some upside movement in the short-term, with fierce bearish reversal incoming in the long-term, likely at the 1.414(5.277) Fib resistance retest. it Especially since 2002, CCs (correlation coefficients) between DXY/Money Supply and IXIC, SPX, Gold have signified negatively strong correlations. For equities and crypto markets: - short-term bearish movement - long-term bullish For Commodities: - I believe further QE (quantitative easing), increasing the money supply will decrease the US dollars value. Thereby, a weaker dollar means commodities are less expensive in other currencies – this increases demand, and therefore prices for US. Indicators Weekly RSI hit above 70, monthly Macd moving towards its mean. Further resources: F urther images+indicators
TVC:DXY
by Sanzhar_m
Sweep the lows ....During the beginning of the descent many rightfully called BTC forming a double top when divided by m2 money supply ... since then ive barely heard it being mentioned so i wanted to check it out and found out this chart actually tells a good story. Most major reactions have occurred based on significant highs or lows being swept ( symbolized by the $$$ ) and while we are yet to see a reaction , we did hit a daily OB which is located right before the big breakout to April 2021 high. I will probably be looking at this chart more often in the coming weeks as it is rather beautiful and logical. The m2 money supply is basically the money in circulation, it effectively shows the asset as a % vs total money but in candle format. While this isnt necessarily a predictive chart, I thought you may want to be made aware of different metrics you can measure against - the m2 money supply is definitely interesting. ps : there's a $$$ line yet to be swept ;)
by bourantrading
A Fork in the Road: How Will the Recession Affect Crypto?The more positive way of looking at LUNA, and other crypto disasters in general, is that these sorts of systemic problems eventually all get caught as the foundation falls underneath. In fiat, these sorts of issues get covered up, bailed-out, and hidden behind tools like quantitative easing as people get pushed out into the streets through inflation and housing scarcity and such. It's a more socially acceptable form of exploitation in a way - with the worst of them actually dipping into taxpayer money and public funds. Just ask the exploited classes about this stuff - they know all about it. Keep in mind that Bernie Madoff was able to get away with his racket for 17 years because the market generally always kept on going up. When the recession hits, we're going to start seeing the ugly undersides of what's been going on in fiat, too. Ponzi schemes are not exclusive to crypto, and there's a lot of pot calling the kettle black arguments floating around, especially in finance. The guilty conscience often attacks what they themselves are doing. The big question for crypto holders is what happens when the recession hits - there's primarily two different types of outlooks in the space right now. The pessimistic outlook is that when fiat goes down, so does crypto, as it has typically done for most of its runs. The optimistic outlook is that Bitcoin itself was born out of the recession and controversy of 2008, where it has experienced the biggest of its returns. Both are true, but how 2022 turns out will largely depend on how secure people are feeling about their money in general. A couple of things that make the economy of the US today unprecedented, compared to recessions in the past: - A historic 8%+ inflation rate which has not yet shown signs of slowing down. - Interest rates will likely be raised to the highest it's been in recent history (possibly 3%, but likely higher). - A massive 36% increase in money supply since 2020, mostly gone to government spending relating to COVID. - High costs of living and new remote work options driving record amounts of people out of the cities (where the housing prices are the most inflated). - The US government has been in massive debt for a while and have been using "fixes" like quantitative easing to kick the can down the road. It's been relying on money printing and taxing capital gains in order to pay off its bills but if the economy goes into a recession, that will no longer be an option. Some people say that this is the "day of reckoning" for the US economy coming that has long been overdue. Which way will the tides swing for crypto and Web3? Time will tell.
Long
by RyanTanaka
1
Interest Rates vs Everyone - How Crypto Can Bounce BackA pretty rough week for the markets - especially crypto. The recent dips are a result of mainstream money (crypto curious, but not necessarily dedicated) leaving the space as a response to inflation woes and the Federal Reserve planning to increase interest rates over 2022. The US housing markets are also set to slow down as well, possibly leading to a recession in the US markets and the global economy as a whole. What's the silver lining? Well, the last time the housing market dipped was in 2008-2012, which coincides directly when Bitcoin itself was invented by Satoshi Nakamoto. Will the same sort of sentiment emerge as a result of fiat money crashing this time around? Time will tell.
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by RyanTanaka
2
Has money supply really gone parabolic since 2008? No.US money supply (pink) has actually steadily increased in percentage terms. It has not risen sharply despite what most people say. Using a log scale shows the steady rise in percentage terms. If you use an arithmetic scale it looks like things are going parabolic. But you can't compare values from 50 years ago with values today, because compounding over time has a large effect over time. Use a log scale chart for any long-term analysis. Over the long term, money supply rises. Inflation, which people often talk about in association with money supply has no visual relationship. People talk about rising money supply as a cause for inflation. As you can see money supply constantly rises, and at a pretty steady rate. Inflation on the other hand, moves up and down. If you want to find a cause for inflation, don't quote money supply. The relationship isn't there. People also say inflation occurs when money supply rises faster than inflation. That doesn't hold true either. Even on a shorter time frame, I went through and looked at increasing periods of inflation...sometimes money supply increased faster than inflation, sometimes GDP increased more, and other they were rising together. Finally, if looking at any of these things to predict stock moves, they don't seem to hold true. Basically, if you are analyzing stocks, analyze stocks. Adding in this other stuff just creates a bunch of noise. This is not my opinion, just my interpretation of the data, which may be flawed? Here's How I created the chart: Money Supply, GBP and S&P 500 are all log scale. Inflation is arithmetic.
ECONOMICS:USM2
by CoryMitchell-CMT
1
S&P 500 Has a Lot More Room to Grow, Too Early for a Recession.If you look at the S&P500 index ( TVC:SPX ) chart, you find that it has reached, and even surpassed, the previous high at 3393.5 which occurred just before the CV19 drop in March 2020. The last close on 31 December 2020 was at 3760. However, many attribute the recent V-shaped recovery to the Quantitative Easing scheme by the Federal Reserve, which makes a lot of sense. Printing money accelerates inflation and raises the prices of everything including stocks. If you haven't yet, look at the M2 Money Supply ( FRED:M2 ) (chart below) to get a feel for the scale of the increase in money supply during 2020 relative to the past 20 years. Below is the chart of SPX for the past 20 years. Below is the chart of M2 money supply for the past 20 years. Notice the jump in the last year. This analysis looks instead at the chart of SPX divided by M2 . That gives us an inflation-adjusted look at SPX. We notice that the index has not yet achieved the V-shaped recovery. It is 2/3 of the way there. What's more, even the Feb 2020 high is not higher than the 2007 high that was just before the house mortgage crisis, and the latter is not higher than the dot-com bubble high in 2000. This simply means that making money through the S&P500 is not really making money, not really increasing the value of your holdings, but it is rather a mere hedge against inflation; and a failed hedge at that. It hasn't even achieved previous highs. With all that being said, I do not believe that the March 2020 correction was anything to be scared of. I think we will achieve the high that occurred just before that drop. I say do not fear a major correction, let alone a recession, before we reach the top of the parallel channel as the arc arrow indicates. And keep your eyes only on the inflation-adjusted chart of SPX.
SP:SPXLong
by TechNerdOmar
4
SNP500 / WM2NS On its way to recover the 2000 ATHUnder the current market conditions aka high Inflation I think it makes sense, to look at all assets vs M2 money supply instead of the USD. USD losing value against assets so quickly, that classic technical analysis is limited. As you can see, if valued against M2 the SNP is still about to recover from the dot-com-bubble. I think it will take about the next 5-6 years to revoer that, which would be a 50% increase in value. If the dollar continues to lose value so quickly, this would result in about 100% gain if valued against USD. from 2009 low to 2020 high SNP/USD +420% SNP/M2 +170%
SP:SPXLong
by maxwayne23
SPX - Is it possible the bubble hasn't even begun?What you see here is a ratio of SPX vs. the M2 Money Supply. Many inverse head and shoulders patterns in this chart, which should resolve to the upside. FYI - M1 = coins and currency in circulation + checkable (demand) deposit + traveler's checks. M2 = M1 + savings deposits + money market funds + certificates of deposit + other time deposits. tldr; The FED is likely to continue printing money, creating a massive bubble and ultimately lead us into a crisis sometime this decade. #CancelTheFED
TVC:SPX
by Jigstack
8
Bitcoin all time high's compared to fiat money supplySo i have to give credit to Benjamin Cowen for the heads up on the money supply vs bitcoin chart. You can go find him on youtube for some very good TA analysis, not searched for him on here yet, if u know his username please link it below This chart is to compliment previous published idea to give an understanding of how the extra money being madly printed has an effect on the bitcoin all time highs (ATH) We can clearly see how we have not really broken through yet to claim this cycles top value, in which we could see 6 figures by the end of the year, unless some blackswan event takes place, im about 70% certain were going to come very close if not break out above, its a huge psychological level too. Please give a thumbs up if u like the chart and follow along for more Bitcoin and crypto charts in the future peace up
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by majorlee
Mad money printing from central banks, how will it affect you?Just a quick chart to show all the new money thats being printed by central banks we can see how the stock market is being kept alive by all this extra wealth being pushed into it, keeping it bullish, the only downside is obvious, INFLATION, massive amounts of very dangerous and harmful inflation! Highlighted the 2008 housing market short and also the most recent injection in March of 2021 for all this COVID B; and there is more to come now that President Biden has signed another package to print even more... Its a house of cards and can already see it falling (not the money supply but the system) - are we being pushed into crypto? how does this effect the crypto markets too? I'll do another chart showing the price of bitcoin compared to the extra money and show why we still have much more upside on Bitcoin and the crypto market, will BTC go parabolic like the money supply??? We shall soon see!!! Trade well guys and gals, hold on tight if your just in fiat cause its gunna get very rocky ride down the next set of rapids - the only diversity you need in your life, is in your portfolio!!
FRED:WM2NS
by majorlee
2 Days, 20 hours from EIP1559Ethereum has been straight running lately, and we have wonderful fundamentals underway with the heavily anticipated upgrade coming very soon. It is worth advising that there is clearly risk of a "sell the rumor, buy the news" event taking place that upon realizing the upgrade we will see those that had accumulated risk off into further strength. While this is a risk, I think it is a low one. It is worth sharing Strategists Russell Napier recently made the potent remark: "This is exactly what happened after World War II. Central banks were impotent during that time. The supply of money was dictated by governments controlling the commercial banking system. I strongly believe that we’re going back to that system. The government can never tell you that, because the whole point of financial repression is to steal money from savers slowly. But this is a fantastic thing for politicians: It isn’t fiscal spending, it isn’t higher taxation, it’s a contingent liability on the government's balance sheet but not an actual liability. It creates politically directed growth, and it creates inflation. For politicians, it’s the magic money tree." (Citation Below) Bond yields are 100% being depressed from central bank intervention which is manipulating yields. Yields are no longer running due to free market forces. This is a hidden penalty on savers, on those living off of fixed income. ETH is a wonderful product as it will enable products to still garner actual market dictated interest rates. This is one of the shocking reasons you are finding such asinine interest rates by providing for example USDC & DAI for example to lenders online offering 7-9% rates. The USD still has high demand, especially from emerging markets and in countries with even worse currency gripes such as Turkey. This is a concept that is hard for many to wrap their heads around: Inflation is taking place The 'Stagflation' cult will eventually be proven right, but their timing is totally (2yrs) premature Despite inflation there is still STRONG DEMAND for the Greenback Yields are being manipulated by central banks, which means to gather yield it is worth going to products which still feature actual free market yields - like ETH or even more broadly speaking DeFi Citation: themarket.ch
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by ZenMode
9