Monster
Unleashing Potential: Strategic Growth And Innovation Of CelsiusCelsius® is a company that was founded in April 2004. It has benefited from the high demand for healthy products without artificial ingredients. It constantly innovates as it expands its portfolio with its scientifically proven beverage lines, and its presence consolidates in the US and reaches international levels. The price performance results in significant progress in market capitalization, leading to its exit from the Russell 2000 index.
Performance against the S&P 500:
Next, I present my investment thesis based on what you believe about a company. The Seeking Alpha portal data was essential for me to have felt the growth trajectory of it. The analysis focused on specific aspects that indicate the expansive potential of the organization.
CELH is adding to a considerably higher financial challenge compared to an industry median across multiple metrics:
Source: Seeking Alpha
The table showed a detailed view of CELH's financial and operational indicators, which stand out both in relation to the sector average and the company's historical design in recent years. Including aspects such as profit margins, profitability of capital and assets, CAPEX allocation, efficiency and liquidity. It is superior in several areas, mainly in Revenue Growth where it stood out with 227%. Considering this information, profit margins also stand out, as shown by the sector's median indicator, in relation to the CELH percentage, good indexes, etc., exceeding industry expectations and highlighting the effectiveness of management in producing value. The increase in profits is also highlighted in the free cash flow per share, added to the share price performance in 2023, along with the growth in ROE and the operating cash flow growth indicator, showing a remarkable growth outlook. CAPEX is what catches my attention the most, because there was a reduction in business expenses of US$ 17.43 million from the US$ 8.26 million reached a year ago, looking at the performance of other years.
Qualitative analysis:
Deepening the qualitative analysis of the company, I will list points that interpret directly from the 2023 annual report. The organization relies on the experience and commitment of John Fieldly, who, as president and CEO, sets the direction and improves the efficiency of the Celsius holding. The team is made up of: Jarrod Langhans, as CFO, manages finances and supports growth. Tony Guilfoyle, commercial director. Kyle Watson, marketing director. Toby David, team leader. Paul Storey oversees the supply chain. Rich Mattessich looks after legal and compliance. Robin Lybeck and Ronnie Char manage operations in Europe and Asia. Danielle Babich focuses on human capital development. And finally Brant P. Burchfield on sustainable growth.
It has also become more solid in the drinks market by creating alliances with important figures in the sector such as AB InBev, Keurig Dr Pepper and Molson Coors. But the main one is PepsiCo (PEP), resulting in an investment of $550 million.
Source: Yahoo Finance, Annual Reports
Risks:
It is important to highlight that the company, as interesting as it is, has considerable risks and this ends up having an impact in the long term. We will analyze the risks and opportunities below based on the 2023 annual report:
Celsius runs the risk of damaging its brand reputation and losing consumer confidence due to product quality problems, negative publicity or changes in consumer preferences. The drinks sector has been very fierce and the possible emergence of other competitors could be a risk, negatively affecting its market share and possibly the company's profits. In addition, the company has faced difficulties in expanding into new markets, including the fact that other countries are bound by trade barriers and bureaucratic regulations. There is concern about a company's cybersecurity. With the increase in attacks and the dependence on information technology to carry out their operations, as well as data breaches and exposure that cause reputational damage; as well as loss of intellectual property and sanctions and fines for not following compliance. Also mentioned in the annual report, another concern is recalls, which pose risks to brands and regulations.
Source: Annual Reports
Based on my qualitative analysis of the annual report and what I consider to be the company's direction, it seems that it is investing in seizing opportunities in the energy drinks market, especially through strategies with partner companies, such as the partnership with Pepsi, which operates in a very divided environment.However, unnecessary dependence on the partnership represents a significant risk, as any change of mood between them could cause significant financial damage. In addition, the company must continue to modernize its product range to satisfy the growing needs of consumers and not just limit itself to the local market, which in this case is the United States, but also expand its product range to other countries.
Fundamental analysis:
The data shows good progress in its financial health, as evidenced by the consistent growth in its assets from 2020 to 2023. This increase shows continued advancement and planned investments in resources and business opportunities. Net equity also increased, reflecting the company's ability to generate profits and attract investment, strengthening its financial base and market position. The company's total capitalization indicates balanced financing management, combining debt and equity. However, it is important to maintain debt management at viable levels to maintain financial stability. Increased working capital shows good management of financial resources, increasing the company's ability to meet short-term obligations and finance daily operations. Total debt stability is positive as long as the company maintains a good balance between debt and equity.
Market Opinion Technical Analysis:
I will now complement our study with technical analyses. This method is based on the market's trading volume, and to facilitate understanding. I will present a legend that simplifies the analysis, making it clear and concise. Our focus will be on aspects that are aligned with the company's fundamentals, avoiding numbers or patterns that do not add value to the analysis. Investment decisions are made after an in-depth analysis of assets, where investors look for advantages or discrepancies in fundamentals, or data that does not correspond to the company's reality.
Hot and cold candlesticks act as a thermometer to assess the buying and selling transactions that occurred during the trading week. The volume indicator includes the delta variation between buyers and sellers, representing the active flow of assets.
e observe an ascending channel with rising tops and bottoms, indicating that the market retreated with a lower seller flow than the last buyer, thus forming an accumulation band. There is also a notable buyer dominance over the years. Sales volumes appear to be related to profit making or batches that were not continued. With the recent rise, along with the Nasdaq index, we anticipate that the market may pull back before resuming the upward trend.
look at the caption:
Take a look at the image below:
Analyzing some articles that talk about Celsius, both are very recent. which discusses the company's rise in relation to Monster and Redbull, and the text emphasizes that even after Celsius' growth, it may suffer a slight slowdown, despite showing a good valuation, and also expresses concern about the company's premium valuation and its ability to sustain growth to justify it. Furthermore, the author projects growth for the company, but is quite cautious about this.
I agree with both opinions and, in fact, the technical analysis they perform complements the pullback view, although they complement each other. What we have to observe is that combining performance and profit, cutting expenses, combined with the boom in the NASDAQ index, we can see a good opportunity to continue buying a company. However, for those who are buying now, they need to be very careful because it is at the top and a correction in the channel's VWAP could occur. Market concerns about Celsius being overbought could drag it to the $42 region before the market resumes its upward trend. I believe that this corrective wave in the market can occur even if the company delivers good numbers, which is normal for any stock.
Monster: Sell SignalSince our last analysis of Monster, we've observed a significant rise to just over $60. However, we now believe that Wave B has concluded. There's a scenario where we could climb higher, but we don't subscribe to that view. We suspect a double top formation near the $60.50 mark, corresponding to the Wave I cycle, and anticipate a five-wave downward structure leading to Wave C or the overarching Wave (A). We're setting a short entry because we believe the structure allows for the assumption of a double top formation. Given this is a double top, we also expect to see a double bottom. Nonetheless, our target remains the upper end of the support zone, as we don't want to quibble over a few percentage points and risk not triggering our take profit. Therefore, we've set our target at $49.88.
MNST - Monster with a monstrous drop?Nah, not monstrous, but a drop maybe.
What do we have in this chart?
The up-sloping Fork projects the most probable path that price takes. So, it's up, until price is falling out of the Pitchfork.
Next, the A/R or Action/Reaction lines (slight blue).
All they do is measure a pullback action and project the corresponding reaction.
As we see, the A/R line above the last high is not touching price, but it gives kind of a resistance to price.
Then we have price itself: A huge bunching is happening up there. And, price crossed below the Center-line a couple weeks ago and is currently trading below it, with support of the EMA(30).
So we land at the Indicators and Oscillators:
The MACD crossed negative weeks ago. And this time the negative indication is longer than the last two times.
The Mansfield Indicator shows weakness compared to the S&P500, and the RSI has taken a dive weeks ago.
All this leads me to believe that we see bigger correction in MNST. Maybe not a monstrous one, but a correction down to the L-MLH.
Play it save if and don't let greed eat your brain §8-)
THE MONSTER OF GOLD IS PREPARING TO HIT HARDHello traders,
We are still bearish for gold as we can see appering the Left Shoulder, the Head and he Right shoulder of the Gold Monster Pattern
After hitting massive Elliot Wave objective for an ABC pattern:
161% for the big Orange C
361% for the Light Orange C of the big Orange
You can check attach the Related ideas about this chart
MONSTERHUNT HUNTING NEW ATH?Good Evening,
I had to post this before I went to bed. This chart patterns a massive spike to drop. I have seen a few of these play out and I love them. My favorite crypto that does this is ACH. Keep an eye out and be ready, because once it goes, it goes!!! If y'all have questions, please leave a comment or send me a message.
Thank you, and have a goodnight.
GONNA CATCH THE FALL!? MONSTERHUNT!...Good Afternoon,
As I get older, I see new and upcoming projects and marketing moves that remind me of my childhood. This one struck a nerve... I stumbled upon Blockchain monster hunt, and the first thing I thought of was Giga pets and Tamagotchi. Still, after looking into it a little bit more, Blockchain Monster Hunt took those and tied them with POKE', of course adding a little blockiness "Minecraft" design to it. The project looks interesting, I know it's at the beginning, but that is what I usually look for when I'm looking to "invest." Something not necessarily fresh, but something that has been refined and might become the modern-day GIGA PET or TAMAGOTCHI. Anyways, you all tell me what you think about this "GEM."
Also, be cautious when trading. Think it through and know that you could lose everything you put into it.
I hope you have a good one.
Axie Infinity etherum Axie Infinity is leading the way for play-to-earn games thanks to its growing popularity that has seen a million gamers come onboard to play the game daily. The astronomical success that Axie Infinity enjoys is mostly driven by the fact that players can earn real money while playing.Axie Infinity is an Ethereum-based game with a player vs environment (PvE) mode as well as a player vs player (PvP) mode. In PvE mode, the player competes against a built-in environment or monsters in the game. A PvP mode is one where the player gets to compete with other players in a metaverse-type scenario.Players have to acquire “Axies” that come in the form of monsters designed for battle with hordes of other small round monsters.
Monster BeveragesMonster is a drink many people depend on. I've seen many coworkers throughout my time working using this product. I know there are other competition in the market and that energy drinks overall aren't the healthiest in my eyes. However, due to TA, I can't see why we couldn't squeeze out some of this potential retracement of the previous high. We are far away from the 200 day ema. I would like price retrace over time to meet it towards the upside. I will more than likely demo trade this stock.
Monster Energy (MNST) Bearish ABCD Monster Energy is an odd company, because when was the last time you saw a Monster Energy commercial? probably not at all or it was a really long time ago, now when i ask the same of its Austrian competitor Red Bull probably more recent depending on your preferred media choice. Now, when I say energy drink what comes to mind? Either the Red Bull can or the distinctive Monster "M". This is what Warren Buffet calls owning a share of the consumers mind.
Coca-Cola (KO), Keurig/ Dr. Pepper/ Snapple (KDP), Pepsi (PEP) have tried to de-throne Monster (MNST) several times with Venom Energy, AMP energy, and Full throttle. Now KO is trying again with their own line of Coke Energy Drinks and I just don't see it doing too well but I could be totally wrong. Monster for the Value investor is a A++ buy. i don't typically give out an A++ buy, because the company usually starts faltering either on the income statement, balance sheet, or the cash flow statement. When I have friends give me company ideas to look at i usually don't make it past the Revenue line on the income statement which is usually my starting point.
The only companies that have received an A are Nike (NKE) and The Home Depot. The Home Depot is the only company that received an A+, until NOW! Monster would Receive an A++ grade but there is a down side, they do not pay a dividend, whereas, HD pays out a 2% dividend. Nevertheless, onward with the fundamental analysis.
When you look at the Financials you will see that MNST has been steadily growing its revenue over the past decade even in the full swing of COVID-19. I guess people need to make sure they were awake during the S*** Show called COVID-19. We are talking about a decade average of 13% increase, and no there are no huge "BOOMS and BUSTS" this is a steady increase floating between 9-13% a year with a steady Gross Profit Margin throughout the entire decade with the Average being 57%!!! Their SGA expenses compared to their Gross Profit is far below normal for any company of its size. This company provides energy drinks across the US and in 2015 they teamed up with KO and started using their distribution network to begin pushing their products outside the US. Their EPS has been steady growing with a few boom and busts in this area but overall a 20% increase.
Those are just a few highlights from the financials.
Now, on to the technical side of things... What you see on the chart is a Bearish ABCD pattern. price overextended a little bit and is now making its way down. Monster is trading too high at the current moment, and yes this is a bearish pattern i am using it as a guide to where to get in at the best current bargain. There are two yellow lines on the chart. One is a 382 retracement of the entire pattern and the other is a 618 retracement of the entire pattern. so, again these yellow lines are potential entry points
the orange line is the DJIA and we can see that MNST is out performing the DJIA! :) overall this is a great company to invest in!
Is Monster breaking out of a massive Ascending Triangle?Key Takeaways
The trendlines of a triangle need to run along at least two swing highs and two swing lows.
Ascending triangles are considered a continuation pattern, as the price will typically breakout of the triangle in the price direction prevailing before the triangle. Although, this won't always occur. A breakout in any direction is noteworthy.
A long trade is taken if the price breaks above the top of the pattern.
A short trade is taken if the price breaks below the lower trendline.
A stop loss is typically placed just outside the pattern on the opposite side from the breakout.
A profit target is calculated by taking the height of the triangle, at its thickest point, and adding or subtracting that to/from the breakout point.
This multi year ascending triangle pattern is similar to a previous one Monster created in approximately 2012.
The RSI is displaying a series of lower highs, meanwhile, the price continues to rise which is indicative of a divergence.
Divergence can occur between the price of an asset and almost any technical or fundamental indicator or data. Though, divergence is typically used by technical traders when the price is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator.
Positive divergence signals price could start moving higher soon. It occurs when the price is moving lower but a technical indicator is moving higher or showing bullish signals.
Negative divergence points to lower prices in the future. It occurs when the price is moving higher but a technical indicator is moving lower or showing bearish signals.
Divergence isn't to be relied on exclusively, as it doesn't provide timely trade signals. Divergence can last a long time without a price reversal occurring.
Divergence is not present for all major price reversals, it is only present on some.
FYI, price target of the ascending triangle breakout on a log scale is approximately $118.00 USD.
Additionally, I wouldn't be surprised to see Monster enter the cannabis space this year or early 2021. The company has expressed interest & the U.S is "potentially" going to get some clarity on the SAFE Banking or States Act, only time will tell.
Super Longshot BTC TopNot sure why I've never posted this before, but potentially we are on Wave-4 on the larger scale for BTC (currently in Wave-B ). I've put the bottom of Wave-4 at the 61.8% retracement of Wave-3, because Wave-2 retraced 38.2% and the rule of alternation suggests that Wave-4 should cover more price range. It's also the top of Wave-1, and Wave-4 should not retrace into Wave-1/2 territory ever to be valid, so this seemed pretty reasonable.
I've put the end of Wave-4 at the time where (assuming Wave-B finishes exactly in the same amount of time as Wave-A) Wave-C = A+B time.
This then gives us an insane upside for BTC Wave-5. It looks like Wave-1 was the extended wave, so Wave-5 won't be massive in vertical size on log scale... however, it still could be HUGE in price as stuff gets silly on log scale very quickly at these levels. Targets for Wave-5 are based on:
-38.2% of price from bottom Wave-1 to top Wave-3, measured from the bottom of Wave-4
-61.8% of price from bottom Wave-1 to top Wave-3, measured from the bottom of Wave-4
-100% of price from bottom Wave-1 to top Wave-3, measured from the bottom of Wave-4
Use the left scale - I had to do a few tricks to get the fib retracements to work correctly and the right scale isn't accurate at all.
Not holding my breath on this idea, but the retracement of Wave-1 in the last correction ( Wave-2 ) is perfect at the 38.2% spot, and my guess at the retracement for Wave-4 lines up super perfectly with the top of Wave-1.
Who knows... maybe we'll all be super rich in a couple years? Hahahaha....
Definitely not financial advice, I'll cry if this happens.
Ignore the indicators.