Monte-carlo
BTC - trends' combatHello and please appreciate my first BTC analysis. :)
Here I would like to compare 2018 pitchforked downwards trend with a meta-bull trend line that has been growing since August 2015. I’ve drawn these lines during summer holidays and they work fine - respecting our trend-friend. With the current price action we are exactly at the equilibrium.
Green line - bullish trend line
Green area - downward channel respecting 2018 bear market
Violet upper area - sell signal
Violet lower area - accumulation signal
Due to the conditions we can easily drop one tenth from now - to circa $5050. You should not consider it painful at all. Painful would be short-lived drop to a $3500 area.
But, we can also recover to $6000-7000 atm. Respect lower chances of breaking the once-support-now-ceiling.
First half of January may bring a huge price action as the longterm bull-run crosses the medium of a bear pitchfork. Happy New Year - happy new deal. Watch out!
What this market needs is a use case and regular people using crypto in real life. Only then the market can grow steadily.
But the real question is... where is my institutional money, Mr Novogratz? :>
P.S.: I recommend Monte-Carlo simulation method over the total market capitalization data. Check out Simulating a Polonged Cryptocurrency Bear Market with the Monte Carlo Method by Anthony Xie. It will give you a bigger picture, folks!
P.P.S: Consider different geopolitical factors as well.