Holy GrailThis isn't everything, but it's still a lot to unpack. I'll try to sort it out below for you.
Let's start with any cycle beyond the 2011 since I use previous cycles for some of these fibs and 2011 doesn't have a previous cycle.
The faded red, 0.5 fib: This is the log-based, direct middle of the full bull market of each cycle. You can see each cycle goes above it and retests it to mark a distinguishable milestone identified by the green bullseye icon.
This goes without saying or even drawing it out that the 1.0 fib of this 0.5 fib trendline marks the top of that cycle seen in green.
This may beg the question 'how do you know where the 0.5 fib is before the top is in?'.
Let me explain a few ways that do just that and also reinforce the validity of that idea.
Hiding beneath that 0.5 fib from 2013 and cycles beyond that is a 'predictive 1.5 fib' in bright red that is always very close to the 0.5 cycle fib noted above.
You may be wondering how I got this predictive 1.5 fib.
1: Draw a log 0.786 fib from the cycle top to the following cycle low
2: Draw a log 1.5 fib from that cycle low to the 0.786 fib we just drew seen in white.
Based on how fib sequences work, this 1.5 fib marks incredibly close to the 0.5 fib
Based on what we know about the 0.5 fib being half the cycle and thus identifying the 1.0 fib as the cycle top, you can simply double the predictive 1.5 fib with a 3.0 fib to create a predictive 3.0 cycle top fib as marked by the faded brown line.
You can see in 2013 and 2017, you didn't need to see the cycle top to predict it.
To further reinforce the consistency of the 0.5 fib, the predictive 1.5 fib, and the cycle tops identified from those placements, you can see the faded blue 1.618 nonlog fib sitting right next to those other two 0.5 and 1.5 fibs.
This is marked by drawing from the previous cycle high to cycle low. This identifies a local bottom between all cycles including the current one.
To even further reinforce consistency of my predictive fibs, you can use the same fib drawn from previous cycle high to low but in Log to draw a 1.272 & 1.618 that I've talked A LOT about since May. This is a range that's pretty well defined by two distinguishable points of contention.
Using this same fib that identifies this range, you can draw a 2.272 fib that marks just shy of the cycle tops.
To even FURTHER reinforce consistency of my predictive fibs, I've drawn a fixed range volume profile across the cycle low to the cycle high (so far).
You can see each cycle reaches above the 1.618 fib with low volume, and we had less than a days worth above that fib so far. & the volume profiles show a pretty distinct pattern that I predict we have yet to finish.
2013 here
2021 here
This is an exhaustive way of providing evidence that could have arguably determined the 2017 top before it was in. We are currently respecting these fibs I've laid out. Is it going to change course all of a sudden?
I'll let the market decide.
There are other cyclical patterns I'm seeing that I won't dive into but you can see in my related ideas such as 'This time is no different'
With the assumption that these patterns aren't just coincidences, I've drawn a range of predictive cycle top numbers as follows:
-based on the 0.5 fib being drawn to the retest in January, the 1.0 fib sits at 243k
-based on the predictive 1.5 fib, the 3.0 fib sits at roughly 264k
-based on the 2.272 fib which was shy of the past cycle highs, this fib sits at 207k
So there you go... 3 different ways that have consistently determined cycle highs & thus why I believe we'll reach at least 200k this cycle.
This'll likely be copied by big names in the future and claim it as their own, so please help me out in crediting me when you see the unique parts of my work copied on this and other platforms.
(unique parts such as the predictive 1.5, the 0.5 retest argument, & unfinished volume profiles)
Tips are welcome <3
You can see some of this work in action by watching my related idea '259k bullmarket top & how'
Some other TA's work to appreciate:
@fikira12
@TradingShot
& My wonderful mentor
@ianrdouglas
