Projecting From Stability Continued: Desert CrossingBitcoin is 3 weeks into a period of extended price stability that encapsulates the final weeks of the bear market. Sentiment remains low and neutral. Recovery will be apparent over the next 1 - 5 weeks. New platforms, like Bakkt and markets have been announced and are planned to come online but positive news will not seem to substantially change prices.
A gradual parabolic breakout is not likely before June 2019. Significant price discovery has been established in this range and the bottom of a new channel has been established, but we may continue to test it. Continued growth is observed in institutional markets and new international markets.
Crackdowns on ICOs and altcoin speculation have kiboshed unchecked growth in alt markets, which continue to decline. BTC's market domination is over 50% of the total Crypto market cap. That number will grow over the next year.
Large leveraged positions against the altcoin markets still aren't available to most traders who operate in compliance with local laws, but they will be made available over the next 1 - 2 years.
Medium-term consolidation ends
Resistance to growth remained through the summer. Bearish and moderate performance was accompanied by price stability that is still increasing. Heavy resistance remains before bullish sentiment can return. Moderate performance is likely through the remainder of 2018, but I don't expect the price to exceed 9k any time this year.
New ATH sometime between March 2019 and December 2019
Heavy resistance is broken—drawn from the 2014 ATH and the December 2018 ATH—and moderate sentiment keeps bitcoin in a consolidation phase under the previous ATH for months. A new wave of adoption from new markets increases BTC volume to previously unimaginable levels. Full capitulation from alt market speculation exposes frivolous and or fraudulent crypto-assets and securities. Government crackdowns and arrests begin to pile up in alt market ICOs. Public outcry against abuse and fraud triggers international concern. Capital escapes from small alts to the top 5. There will be less than 15 cryptos with a market cap over 500 million USD. Additional speculation about the halving and institutional adoption lay the groundwork for a new round of irrational exuberance.
The ascending wedge drawn from the 2013 ATH is difficult to break
We bounce off an ascending wedge and establish a new ATH between December 2018 and January 2020. The bottom of the channel is not retested. Capital flight into BTC from alts eventually pushes bitcoin through the ascending wedge from 2013, which altcoin markets will likely never push through.
Bitcoin's adoption rate rapidly grows. It’s fueled by speculation; institutional adoption will try but cannot dominate BTC ownership. Speculation attracts a new wave of users who are disenchanted with traditional investments. Bitcoin's young male demographic starts to diversify and enter new markets internationally.
Lightning wallets become the standard BTC UX. LocalBitcoin processes 15 to 30 million USD in transactions daily. Press praises BTC as a tool ready for “Main Street.” A practical use case for lightning in retail businesses is implemented in some markets.
Bounce off the new long-term channel in early 2020
Speculative fever ignites and BTC markets observe substantial resistance for the first time since Dec 2017. The new ATH is somewhere between 100k and 220k USD/BTC and the correction triggers fierce new BTC obituaries from major institutions.
Hitting the top of the channel signals a medium-term bear market and moves prices into a comparatively moderate range, under 100K USD/BTC. Bouncing off the top of the channel completes before speculation about the halving takes hold of sentiment in early 2020.
1m USD price targets are commonly issued from established financial institutions by the end of 2021.
BTC: 3CX34Yg6o9GPNimDTF3e8UvYhm6QAmFX6N
