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Reaction on 51KMorning folks, So BTC shows real strength in recent weeks and long-term background stands friendly to accumulation. Our suggestion that BTC should take out the previous tops in mid term. Market shows minor reaction on weekly overbought area, which means that demand for BTC is growing and any, even minor deep immediately is buying out. Market was not able to form the H&S pattern by this reason on 1H chart, that we were watching last time. Now price is coming to the major daily resistance area of 51K - this is 5/8 Fib level and Agreement with AB=CD target. Besides, this is the neckline of former H&S pattern on top, i.e. natural resistance area. Once again, currently we not dare to predict the pullback depth but odds suggest that if you're thinking about long entry - it makes sense to wait a bit, as minor pullback, at least should happen. For the bears it is possible to wait for bearish patterns (H&S is most probable) on 1H chart, but to not marry any position and take nearest target as BTC now is aimed on top.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Still watching for 41-42K areaGreetings everybody, In recent week BTC shows relatively slow action. Now we could consider a bit deeper retracement. Actually the pattern that we've discussed now is taking some shape. I'm talking about potential H&S pattern that could lead price to 41-42K support area. Actually I'm not sure that it is definitely will be formed, as overall action looks strong. But, as BTC stands at weekly overbought and daily 5/8 resistance - it is logical to suggest retracement at least to major 3/8 support level. Besides, now we see some strength in US dollar across the board, so, it also could become the factor in favor of H&S pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Watching for 42.7 supportMorning folks, BTC shows positive performance, we see signs of thrust on daily chart. Meantime, price hits weekly Overbought area and it makes sense to consider minor pullback. At the first stage we like 42.7K K-support area and previous top where we intend to consider long entry. Since H&S pattern is possible here - once 42.7K will be touched, it would be better to move stops to breakeven. In a case of H&S failure, our next target is 50-51K as it is shown on previous idea.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
42-42.3K looks interestingGreetings everybody, BTC shows excellent performance, especially if we take into consideration strength of US Dollar right now. Now price hits nearest 45K target. Some technical issues suggest downside pullback that might be different depth. From the one point of view - pullback should be 50-60% because BTC at weekly oversold and formed bullish reversal swing. Previous bearish momentum is strong enough still. From another one - BTC shows strong resistance to bearish factors, COP is minimal target. That's why now we consider 42-42.3K area as first level that is suitable for long entry. This is strong support and even market later follows deeper - at the first touch it should show solid upward bounce, that we intend to use for stop moving to breakeven. This is our tactics here for the beginning of the week. Our next upside target is 51K area - major daily 5/8 Fib resistance and AB-CD target Agreement.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Multiple patterns are formingGreetings everybody, So, the H&S pattern that we've discussed last time stands in progress. But, as we have NFP report on horizon - few nuances exist now. First is, if you already have taken bearish position with the pattern - move stops to breakeven. If NFP will be poor (and chances for that are significant because of poor ADP recently), then market could show another upward swing to 5/8 resistance area before final reversal. Here it could take the shape of "222" Sell, while on daily chart in fact we have B&B "Buy" pattern. In a case of positive NFP - downside action should continue directly. Anyway: If you would like to take long position - this is good chance to try with stops below recent lows. Potential risk is minimal now. Target is 5/8 resistance around 40.67$. For new short entry I would wait for NFP release, as chances on upside AB-CD action now stands solid.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Watching for pullbackGood morning, So, 42K target has been hit and market turns to expected retracement. Now, as upside channel has been broken on 1H chart and price has formed first upside reversal swing after long-term flat action, we expect more or less deep retracement. Here, on 1H chart we're watching for H&S pattern and 36.5-37K area as potential target. This is rather strong 4H K-support area, and upward action could continue right from here. It means we have two potential setups. Once H&S will be formed - this is setup for intraday bears, while around 36-37K area we start searching chances for long entry and upward continuation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Still watching for 42KMorning everybody, Our long-term bullish background is almost set as it is just 2 sessions till the end of the July and hardly possible the drop below 29K lows. But for position taking with this setup on monthly/weekly charts we need healthy retracement. Now BTC stands in a first more or less solid upward action and gradually is coming to 42-43K resistance area. On 4H chart we also have XOP target that we've discussed last time. Although upward bounce from 36K has happened pretty accurately, currently we do not consider any new long entry as market almost stands at resistance. Once XOP will be reached - we start watching for pullback, and hopefully we could use it for long entry of a bigger scale. Upward action could be finalized by the butterfly that you could see here, on 1H chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
42K is the nearest targetMorning folks, So BTC finally shows thrusting action and we hope that this is just a beginning. WE already mentioned potential bullish grabber on monthly chart that suggest return to the top. Now, we recent jump chances are higher to get it. Hopefully Fed statement doesn't hurt it too much. Besides, previous week has become the bullish reversal one. Based on daily and 4H chart major resistance stands around 42-43K area, because this is the top border of consolidation after May collapse. Upside breakout could become the turning point in the trend. In shorter-term, we have AB-CD pattern with approx. the same target around 42K. In general we could start watching for the deep to buy. Now it seems that 36K area is suitable for this purpose. Hopefully, accumulation period is coming to an end and market keep going higher...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
This is it?Morning folks, Today we consider small pattern but with huge potential. At first glance, this is just reverse H&S with potential entry area around 31K and target around 34-35K that could become the top of right wing of the pattern from our pervious idea before drop to 26 or maybe 24K area. But, July could become decisive month for BTC as we could get bullish grabber on monthly chart, that suggests return back to ATM top. What events, news or speeches will stand behind it - I do not know. But, this reverse H&S pattern potentially could become the turning point. We intend to go step by step and focus first on nearest target, but still be prepared to positive surprises...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Market looks heavy Morning folks, Market has shown anemic action since our recent discussion and overall situation looks heavy by our view. First is, recent downside fake breakout it seems is becoming not fake any more and this is absolutely irrational behavior. After fake breakout price has to move at least to opposite border of consolidation. This is just how markets work. As we do not see it - situation looks worse than it seems at first glance. Second is - downside turn happens in the middle of the range, which is also a bearish sign. Trend are bearish by MACD as on weekly as on daily charts. Finally, take a look at our previous idea - BTC was not able to form "222" pattern that we've suggested and drop. JP dovish speech in Congress hasn't helped too much. So, we would say that BTC looks more bearish rather than bullish, and this is the reason why we do not consider any long positions by far. Still, it is not everything clear with bearish positions as well. Although overall picture looks bearish - we do not have any patterns for position taking. Thus, we hope that maybe ECB and Fed this week bring some volatility and we could get something. For example, it would be nice to get butterfly, as I plot it on the chart. Thus, for bearish position taking we still need the clear pattern. Take care. S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
34K pullback is possibleMorning guys, Market looks heavy now, and personally I'm tending to idea of downside action, mostly because BTC has erased bullish patterns that we've discussed last time, and it can't get started upward action on weekly chart, although fake downside breakout of flag pattern has been formed. This "inability" usually leads to new lows. So, currently we do not consider taking any long positions on daily and above time frames. Second is, price action is very choppy without any clear patterns that lets us to focus only on 1H chart. This is the only setup that we see currently, that may be will be realized. In general, price is forming flat wedge pattern, and inside the pattern market keeps tendency to form retracements in a way of "222" patterns. This time, price additionally has completed AB-CD target inside the wedge. Thus, in a case of "222" again - price could test 34K area with the same "222" shape. All "222"'s are finished right at upper border of the wedge. This is the only setup that we could find here.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
No bearish positions by farMorning folks, Last time we've talked about possible bearish context that might be forming on the market, but in recent 2-3 sessions situation has changed significantly and we have to postpone consideration of bearish positions by far. On daily chart we've got three in a row bullish grabbers that suggest action to 36K at least. It means that we have to wait either when grabbers are completed or failed before speaking again on bearish positions. For long entry our vital point is recent lows. On 4H chart we haven't got real 33.6k breakout as price briefly touched it to complete downside AB-CD target and form "222" Buy pattern. Until lows are valid, BTC keeps bullish context and chance to climb at least to 36K area. Potentially it might be AB =CD as well, with 37.3K destination point. If you consider long entry - wait for the patterns on the lower time frames. For example, we could get reverse H&S on 1H chart. Try to buy as close to the lows as possible to minimize the risk. Use some retracement to Fib support levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
New downside scenarioMorning folks, So, last week we were watching for bullish scenario, whether market will be able to form some bullish pattern, while it stands above crucial 32.5K support. Although some attempts are made to proceed higher, BTC was not able to hold on a surface and dropped below the major level. As we have very similar situation on other markets, such as Gold and EUR, now we're turning to bearish scenario. Currently it is difficult to foresee clear shape of price action, but we could approximately set few targets and potential patterns that might be formed here. First is, we cold get downside AB=CD shape with target around 24K area. CD leg, in turn, could take the shape of the butterfly pattern, which has the same target. Thus, currently it is possible to watch for bearish continuation patterns on 1H chart and chances to step-in. Invalidation point for this scenario is 36.7K top.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Still a room for bullish contextGreetings everybody, So, despite we've got relatively good NFP numbers and our H&S has worked nice - we still think that BTC has room for bullish context and its not cancelled yet. This is because of few details that we have here. First is, recall our "222" Sell on 4H chart from previous "idea". Downside action stopped at 5/8 Fib support area after H&S has been triggered. Now, take a look - price stands above neckline and overall downside performance looks a bit stretched. This makes us to see purchases stand behind the current price action. NFP report was very comfortable to everybody as it keeps door open for dollar rivals as well. Taking it all together we suggest two things. First is - if you would like to sell, wait for 5/8 Fib level breakout as I call it "Vital bullish lows". For instance, you could use Stop "Sell" order below 32.5K area. Because bullish context is valid until market stands above it. Consequently, for the bulls - you could consider long entry until market stands above these lows. Try to take position on minor pullback to them, to minimize the risk. There are multiple upside patterns could be formed here - AB=CD that I've drawn, butterfly, etc. If we're not mistaking in our view - upside target should be around 39K first, with possible extension to 41K. Another reason, why we do not totally deny BTC upside view is ETH picture. There it looks better. So, maybe it doesn't work but it makes to consider it still...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
NFP stands in focusMorning everybody, So "222" Sell operation has done perfect. This is good preparation for NFP release. Right on top of "222" reversal we've got H&S pattern on 1H chart. Now, "222" is completed the minimum target as 3/8 Fib level is touched. But if you intend to keep shorts - move stops just above the right arm of H&S. Those of you who doesn't have short position but consider to sell - could use the same pattern with showed targets and the same stop above right arm. But... you have to pass through doom&gloom of NFP report. And this is not as pleasant as to have riskless position. Our suggestion that numbers below 400k push BTC back to 40K area, breaking the short-term bearish context. While numbers around expected 600K level keep bearish context valid. According to our sentiment analysis chances on another lows as on ETH as on BTC stands high. Before major reversal cryptos could dive once more.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Short-term setup by farMorning everybody, Today, guys, I do not want to consider extended perspective, although W&R pattern that we've discussed last time is positive and I still hope that BTC will try to reach 40K - the upper border of consolidation, I still would like to consider today shorter-term perspective. IT seems that we have some signs of thrust on intraday chart and it is very probable that market tends to form "222" Sell pattern. Based on it, we suggest reaching of ~35.8-36K target that is also 5/8 Fib level. Once this level will be reached, we expect at least 30% pullback to ~35K area. This is minimum "222" pattern target. Thus, scalp traders could think about short-term bearish position, if on 15 min chart there will be some bearish pattern around 36K. While bulls should keep an eye on 35K area retracement, when "222" hits the target.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Some hope on the horizonMorning folks, So, minor dive here has happened, for the truth sake, it is not to 26K, but daily bearish dynamic pressure is done, as this pattern suggests just appearing of new lows, whatever lows are. Anyway, right now the major interest stands on intraday charts. First of all, this minor spike is fake downside breakout, "Wash & Rinse", when stops have been grabbed. And this is potentially bullish pattern. But we have twofold problem here - this is the only pattern that we have and second - price performance after pattern is formed stands weak, no acceleration. That's why you have to make difficult decision - either you take position only due this "W&R" pattern with the stops just under its lows. Additionally, we could keep an eye on "222" pattern. It could provide more confidence once it will be formed. Bears, in turn, could consider using of Stop "Sell" orders on a breakout of recent lows.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
26k?Morning folks, It seems that current situation doesn't need a lot of comments. As market has broken down key intraday support on a background of Fed statement - short-term bullish context successfully was broken :) Now, on weekly chart market is not oversold any more, so it could keep dropping. Although other market have hit major downside targets on Friday and now are preparing to pullback - cryptos are trying to catch up with them, and keep dropping. On weekly chart we have flag consolidation that is potentially bearish. On daily, as we've said before, BTC shows signs of bearish dynamic pressure that should lead to new lows. Thus, again we return back to idea of 26K area that could be hit. Anyway, right now we do not see any good patterns for trading. Its no setup for long entry, as market should reach at least the bottom of consolidation. Short entry theoretical is possible, but we do not have good pattern either by far. Thus, we think that it makes sense to wait 1-2 sessions and see what will happen. Downside breakout to 26K could move situation from a dead point as BTC could start forming bullish reversal pattern that we're waiting for. Despite Fed policy is headwind for cryptos - rates remain flat for 18 months more, so solid pullback in long-term perspective has not bad chances to happen
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Keep an eye on 37.2-37.4K areaMorning guys, So, market shows good performance in general and barely has not reached our 42K target. You probably heard about stunning Fed statement yesterday that has triggered the collapse on FX and Gold market. Now take a look to cryptos - not bad resistance to the dollar's strength. Although we have some pullback but it is slow and gradual. It doesn't shows features of reversal. Thus, we think that BTC is still keeping bullish context, aiming to the same targets of 42 and maybe 43.3K - major daily 3/8 resistance. But - keep an eye on strong 37.20-37.40 support area here. Market has to stay above it. Otherwise short-term bullish context will be broken and ultimately BTC could return back to 31K. If you want to buy - you also could use this level with tight stops just below it. This area doesn't guarantee the success, but provides best risk/reward ratio, minimize risk and gives chances to tight stops to breakeven later.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
42K stands in focusMorning folks, Recent week market shows much better performance than before and on intraday charts downside tendency has been broken. This lets us to consider upside 42K target with AB-CD pattern. As upside pace looks nice, we do not exclcude chance of testing major 3/8 Fib resistance at 43.3K as well. At the same time I'm not dare to say that this is major upside reversal. So, maybe we will return to discussion on 26K area again, but probably not within nearest 2-3 sessions...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Sit on the handsMorning folks, As we've suggested BTC slipped, but not enough as we've suggested action to 26K area. Although it seems nice rebound right now - we have no clear bullish context: no divergences and no clear bullish patterns. In fact "LH-LL" tendency is still valid. This makes us think that it is not proper moment for speculative buying on daily chart. We need to get clear reversal pattern first. Especially with CPI ahead that is expected to be dollar supportive. On 1H chart - in fact market repeats the same pattern. H&S, then run to XOP (1.618 extension)+78.6 Fib resistance and turns down. Now it repeats it again. It doesn't let us to treat this context as bullish by far. For bearish trading, theoretically you could try to go short, but I have to warned you - this time we do not have "222" Sell as last time. All that we have is the hope on strong CPI, and repeated pattern here. Thus, your bet mostly will be on CPI numbers... Personally I prefer to wait. Currently I do not see very attractive setups for trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Signs of bearish dynamic pressureMorning folks, So, market stands in the same triangle pattern, that theoretically keeps door open for both directions. Still, by few indirect signs we suggest that it might be another downside breakout. First is, triangle is formed after downside action, and its a continuation pattern - just to thing in a row with classic technical analysis. Second is - take a look that MACD trend stands bullish here, but price action is not, its mostly flat. If you take a look at intraday performance. Upside action inside the triangle is choppy and gradual that is not typical for reversal which should be more thrusty. Conversely downside action now shows pushes on 1H chart. Finally, we expect that Thursday's CPI data also becomes dollar supportive, that indirectly could make pressure on BTC as well. Thus, if you have taken short position around XOP (see previous update) - you could keep it, just don't forget to manage it. Second - I wouldn't take any long position by far for speculative purposes (long term accumulation is OK), as we suspect that BTC could hit 26-27K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
No clear direction by farGreetings everybody, Market has not set the direction yet, forming triangle on daily chart. By indirect signs, it seems that downside action to 26K is not totally denied. First is, upward action stands very slow and gradual and it difficult to treat it as upward recovery and bullish reversal. Second - MACD trend stands bullish while price action is not yet. As a result, we have only two options - either to wait for clarity when triangle shifts to some different pattern, say butterfly "Buy". Or, trying to anticipate the direction. For example, if you have bearish view, it is possible to wait when XOP target will be hit on 1H chart and take short positions with stops above the recent top. This is the bet on possible downside butterfly. Conversely, it is possible to make the bet on upward breakout with stops below 32K. But whatever direction you choose - you should understand that position cares some degree of gambling as no patterns stand in place by far
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten