Get started

Morten

Consolidation before breakout?Morning folks, Last time we've talked that butterfly on daily chart will be the best choice for BTC to complete major 21070$ target. But, market has chosen worse scenario instead, trying to break the top immediately. As a result, it stuck with daily overbought area and stopped at the current levels. Still, current price action is not the fake breakout that suggests deeper downside action. Instead of that we see triangle consolidation right around previous top. It means that BTC is building an energy for breakout and once overbought pressure becomes weaker, we should see another leg up, despite whether it will be just wash&rinse of previous top and stop grabbing or real upside breakout. We suggest no meaningful retracement should happen until BTC hits our target. And the last one - keep an eye on US Presidency turmoil. It seems that something is going on under curtain as D. Trump contesting activity comes on new levels. We will not be surprised if he announces emergency regime. Just control this topic... BTC could be in the center of this event as in recent time it is more gravitated to safe haven features, rather then stock market.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
BTC has to finalize major $21070 targetMorning folks, BTC has shown deeper retracement than we thought. Although it was ripening for some time and we even have talked about it earlier, but price has come so close to 20K top that it was seemed major retracement comes after its challenge. Anyway, we have few possible scenarios here, such as downside AB-CD, immediate upside breakout, butterfly and some others. But I talk only on the one that I think most probable. We need the pattern that makes price to stay flat for some time but then let price to finalize weekly 21070. Butterfly fits best for this. We expect that minor pullback should happen in the beginning of the week, somewhere to 17K area that will become the right wing of the butterfly, and then price should re-establish upside action, making challenge of 20K top and last effort to weekly 21070 XOP target. Strong deeper retracement is possible only after that.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
From 18600 to 21070Morning folks, So, in recent few days we've tried to catch at least some minor pullback but BTC erases all hints on retracement. This makes us think that we stand before last upside effort to our weekly 21068$ target. When price stands so close to destination - it is aimed on it, ignoring barriers and showing no meaningful pullbacks, tending directly to the target, like a magnet. This makes us think that BTC probably should stay inside the current range and upward action should be re-established either from 18600, as we hope, forming "222' Buy inside the channel, or, just keeping the same pattern, from the bottom of the channel. Anyway, it seems that we're before last jump to destination point...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Pullback for long entryMorning everybody, Market is tending to nearest tactical target around 21070. Our general suggestion - minor pullback around current levels to ~ 16.70K then upside action to 21070$, grabbing stops around former 20K top and then deeper moderate retracement. The reason why we think that BTC probably should show tactic pause and pullback right now is overbought on weekly and daily chart, drop of hash rate and completion of AB-CD pattern on daily chart as well. This is not the background for short-entry definitely. But if you plan to buy - it would be better to wait for retracement. Besides, even from technical point of view - go long at overbought is not very good decision. The price shape on intraday chart tells me that we could get something of that sort - H&S pattern. It is interesting that its shape suggests target around 16.70K, which in turn is daily Oversold. That is good combination to possess for the last effort to weekly XOP target around 21 068$.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Barriers are goneMorning folks, So, in recent 3-4 updates we 've warned on possible resistance areas that could become a reason, barrier for immediate upside continuation and trigger retracement. Now, as market has passed through all targets and levels this resistance cluster is broken and we could consider next upward destinations. On monthly chart this is 23-24K, on weekly chart, and our next target is 21-21.1K - challenge of previous top. Currently market stands at overbought on weekly and daily chart. It means that minor retracement could happen. But this time we focus on very small pullback. We use the same harmonic swing of touching overbought previously and use it in current situation. It suggests that BTC could pullback to 17K area, where is also 3/8 Fib level stands. At the same time, we do not consider levels below 15.4K, as all of them stands under oversold area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
We should not ignore potential bearish patternsMorning folks, Something stands in the air and despite recent rally, it seems that situation is becoming tricky. In a long-term yes - BTC perspective is cloudless, we wait for next $21K target etc. But here is what hesitate me a bit: we're at monthly COP target and Overbought area; Hash rate is dropping; recent jump was due Pfizer news that was strongly overreacted; Finally - D. Trump election contesting topic is becoming more popular and it means that something stands behind this. At least D. Trump presidency risk is still on the table. This makes me think that we should not ignore possible bearish patterns around monthly target. Second - I feel uncomfortable with longer-term investing in BTC right now. Scalp trade is OK, but to buy on longer-term perspective... I want to see healthy pullback, respect of monthly target, clear fundamental background and preferably some pattern that we do not have right now. Taking it all together makes me think that we have above zero chances to get 3-Drive "Sell" closer to the end of next week. Consequently, in the beginning of the next week, we consider a bit deeper retracement, somewhere to 15.5K (or even lower), and then another target around 17050K could be reached. Currently we have to acknowledge that we do not have clear reasons to suggest deep drop by far, as market doesn't show them.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Downside reaction still on the tableMorning folks, We still suggest that market should show reaction on few moments - reaching of monthly 15.5K target, monthly overbought level and dropping of the Hash rate. All these moments suggest at least minor technical response in a way of pullback from the top. Still, as we're dealing with long-term time frames - the range of reaction and timing could be wider than on daily and intraday charts. It lets price to fluctuate around before retracement could get started. This, in turn leads us to consideration of following scenarios. First one is butterfly "Sell", when reaction could start from a bit higher level - around 16.4K. But, we have some doubts because appearing of puny W&R (Wash & Rinse) that grabbed stops from previous top. This is usually bearish pattern, suggesting that downside action could start immediately. So how to place trades with this? If you would like to sell - there are two ways. Take more risk and sell right now we stops above W&R candle. This is risky, but entry price is perfect. And in a case of success - best result. Alternatively- wait for the patterns, either butterfly "Sell", or confirmation of DPRO "Sell" on daily chart that we've mentioned in last update. They are safer, but entry conditions will be different. For the bulls - it is not good time for buying on long-term perspective. For scalp traders, it is possible to consider using of Stop "Buy" order slightly above W&R top. In a case of breakout hardly we will get new W&R and BTC just breaks the top, going higher.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
We would be happy with 13'600$ areaMorning folks, There are a lot of thinks that I would like to say concerning BTC situation, but the scale of update here doesn't let me to do this. Shortly speaking, we see few reasons for retracement on BTC. Our long-term view remains positive, next target, we suggest, stands at ~21070$, but now market needs to relief and take the breath. It was tough run in recent two weeks. Thus, we consider tactical pullback. At the same time we do not consider downside targets below 13600, because this is daily oversold level. Also we do not care much how the downside action happens, as we do not intend to take any short positions. The major thing to us is to see BTC around predefined target where we could buy. But how it will get there - we do not care too much. Approximately, we suggest the shape of price action that you see on the chart. If we will be 100% spot on, then price completes "222" Sell right at 5/8 Fib resistance and starts to form CD leg of larger AB-CD pattern. Take a look that AB=CD destination point stands precisely around 13600 that is 3/8 Fib support on daily chart. We could get some deviations from this shape - either higher ab=cd retracement of "222" Sell, or maybe even double top, but it doesn't change the core. In general we're watching for pullback and would be happy to see BTC around 13'600
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Not good moment for new longsMorning folks, Our 3-Drive pattern is done accurately and now we turn to larger scale - weekly BTC chart. We know that we also have all-time COP target around 15.5K on Monthly chart, but now we have a lot of doubts that price will get there. First is - if you take a look at US 10 year yield , you'll see that it has dropped ~ for 30% in recent two days. This confirms our worst scenario that elections will turn to mutual frauds, accusations, legal claims, social unrest and probes, involving Supreme Court. Difference between candidates are too narrow that makes victory of any candidate fragile and arguable. Other markets do not show yet the reaction and shows the visuality of upward action, especially stocks. But with yields' dropping, any rally are suspcious. Second - BTC hits long-term weekly target and hash rate starts to slow, showing miners capitulation, which also stands not in favor of immediate rally. That's why our conclusion - if you still keep longs, you could try to hold them with some trailing stop, hoping on luck that BTC somehow either spike or creep to 15.5K target. BUT, we do not support an idea of new longs taking right now. For shorts overall background is ripening but it is not ready yet...
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC aimed on 14.5-15.5K targetGreetings everybody, So, it was tough week when market sentiment was changing day by day. Once in first three days there was explosive demand for US Bonds and dollar, so that yields has dropped 15% - next two days situation has become drastically different and yield only yesterday has jumped for 5+% indicating decreasing of the pressure on riskier assets and demand for US Dollar. This has let BTC to show another jump. In general, BTC shows better resistance to external pressure compares to other markets. This lets us to suggest that market is aimed on final target around 14.50K that should be hit on coming week. Technically, market has no significant barriers - last major 5/8 Fib level is broken, market is not at overbought. So, it is relatively easy to suggest, say, appearing of 3-Drive "Sell" that lets market to complete it. Potentially we have 15.5K all time target on monthly chart, but here could be different scenarios. 14.5 and 15.5 stands relatively close to each other so, 15.5K might be hit with the same upside swing through 14.5K or after 3-Drive completes the retracement. Unfortunately we're limited with forecasting as the action of this kind probably will be triggered by some breaking news, because it suggests fast action for 1.5K, which is not ordinary, even for BTC. In common situation, it should be some respect of 14.5 target and then upside continuation to 15.5K. But how this happens on a background of elections turmoil is difficult to say. Thus, overall situation suggests no shorts by far. 14.5K target looks as certain, while 15.5K is possible with friendly news background.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Not friendly environmentGreetings everybody, So, BTC almost has reached our daily 14K butterfly target (slightly missed) and then it has become the victim of global tendency - "run into the quality" Sell-off stands everywhere, as investors run into USD and US Bonds. The yields of 10-year Bonds has dropped for 15% just within 3 days. As elections still stand ahead, this process probably is not over yet. If our worst expectations become the reality - a lot of frauds will be with mailing voting, Biden/Tramp gap will be minimal and Supreme court will step in - this process could take longer and pressure on the markets will exacerbate. But this is ultimate scenario. Normally, pressure should start fading in the middle of next week. It means that although it is everything good with BTC and we think that 15K target we will see in perspective of 2-3 weeks, currently it would be better to not buy immediately and wait for deeper retracement. We think that either K-support around 12.20K or 11.35K levels stand among most probable where chance to buy will appear.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
12-12.3K area looks interesting to set the bet on BidenMorning folks, Coming week will be the last before elections turmoil and is promised to be relatively quiet. We treat chances to see stimulus pack as low and recent rally mostly is partial pricing-in of Biden's victory. If it is everything clear what will happen in a case of D.Trump victory, concerning Biden, it seems that 12K-12.3K area looks not bad for long position taking, if you anticipate his victory. Retracement probably will happen by few reasons. First is price has hit daily Oversold and butterfly target on daily chart, but we haven't got yet any meaningful reaction. Second - as we've said, week could be relatively quiet, only GDP release could shake it a bit. Finally, here on 4H chart we see DRPO "Sell" pattern and stop licking type of action on the top. They suggest deeper downside retracement. In a case of Biden win, our monthly COP 15.5K target probably will be reached.... If you believe that D. Trump will win - Sell it, using DRPO pattern that already stands in place.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
14150Morning folks, So, stimulus euphoria totally has erased short-term bearish context. Still, this is fragile foundation because if something will go wrong, rally easily could be reversed. Anyway, currently we have the new background. As you can see, our "222" Sell has shifted into butterfly that already has hit the first, 1.27 extension. As price stands at overbought, we suggest short-term tactic retracement to 12.46 - 12K levels. Then, theoretically, upside action should continue to next, 1.618 extension of 14.15K area. BTW, this target almost coincides with our long-term weekly AB=CD 14.5K... It means, that bulls should wait for small tactical pullback and then consider long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Pelosi has made the dayMorning folks, It seems technicals take back seat totally. Pelosi has changed the opinion three times in recent week and rally is a result of last change. It is extremely difficult to trade in current environment. It seems that our short-term bearish context is totally crushed and today all eyes of investors will be on achievement of stimulus pack, as Pelosi said, it should be reached on Tuesday. The one thing that I would like to say that driving factors are very tricky now. We should understand that recent rally is just a product of verbal intervention. It means that if market will not get what he wants - price returns back even faster... Taking this moment in mind, we do not exclude reversal here. Yes BTC could climb slightly higher to 12K area, where 1.618 extension stands. But we have growing MACD divergence and, if you keep longs - just consider this scenario. Bears have no context to get short right now, but if sharp sell-off happens from 12K, your chances will be on 11.7K pullback. Who said that stimulus pack definitely will be achieved?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Fundamentals stand not in favor of immediate rallyMorning everybody, Despite that we keep positive view on BTC in long-term perspective, and still keep our 15.5K target, in shorter-term we worry even not about BTC background but about fundamentals that stand not in favor of immediate rally. Take a look - no stimulus will be provided till Nov.3., Biden leadership is too wide and we think that it will contract in coming 2 weeks that will be supportive to US Dollar. Rising concern on lockdown, coming to end of financial year and holidays will make investors run in cash or money market tools. Ultimately, D. Trump victory could push BTC to 6-7K area. With this environment we're not ready to put the bet on immediate rally here. It means, that on coming week, we see another leg down as more probable. In fact, this is the same AB=CD that we've discussed already, but its shape was slightly adjusted by recent price action. So, we still consider action to 11-11.10K area. Conversely, upside breakout of daily resistance might be the signal of upside continuation, but anyway it remains tricky as we have explosive combination of uncertainty around major fundamental factors.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Wait at least till 11KMorning folks, After initial spike based on our former scenario market has stopped and was put on hold by Pelosi words on rejection of 1.8Trln stimulus that has hurt all markets across the board. BTC as you know keeps high degree of correlation with stocks and this is the reason why we suggest that it could go deeper before it again will go higher. Just take a look what is going on right now on DAX and S&P (-3% by current moment). Besides, pure technical moments here - our "222" Sell pattern on daily chart right at major 5/8 Fib resistance and bearish grabber on 4H chart makes us expect something like downside AB-CD pattern back to 11-11.1K area, where strong intraday support stands. It is no guarantee that BTC stops there, but, at least this level is strong enough to consider long entry... That's being said we're not inspiring to buy right now and prefer to wait till 11-11.1K area first.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Market is overexcitingMorning folks, Not occasionally we have called to sit on the hands on Thursday... so, now we have confirmation of bearish scenario's destruction as market follows to common tendency in euphoria of US stimulus pack negotiations. Markets want to be happy, erasing any common sense, and treating negative news (that no stimulus are provided now) as positive news. So, we do not intend to prevent this. In current new environment market should proceed higher, but not immediately. On daily chart price stands at resistance and we expect first to get moderate pullback, somewhere to 11-11.1K area. Thus, both levels are suitable to consider long entry, but initial stops anyway should be below the 2nd one - K-support area. The point is, that on daily we have "222" Sell, and its minimal target, at least theoretically is 3/8 retracement, which is 11K. Once the technical response on resistance will be over - we expect upside continuation to 11.8K area. Acceleration to butterfly's first target was strong and it suggests continuation after technical reaction on the first target. Although it is possible to consider scalp short out from current resistance - we do not call to do this as market sentiment is irrational, recent push was strong and any bearish position cares excess risk. That's why we currently look only for buy trades. But it is not forbidden, or course...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Better to sit on the handsMorning everybody, in previous update we said that upside action back to 11K area could happen and it even has started, but after few sessions price has lost upside pace totally. Currently we see contradictive patterns among different time frames. For example - on daily, we have few bullish grabbers that still suggest return to 11-11.2K area, while on intraday we see anemic behavior and forming triangle consolidation. Besides, on other markets - FX, Gold we suspect another leg down before next bullish chance will appear. Taking it all together we think that better choice is to do nothing and wait for the next week. Or, if you still want to do something - focus on very short-term patterns, such as "222" buy on 1H chart. Our major setups are still valid, as price has not reached their invalidation points. But price shape on intraday charts becomes less clear and could change.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
The butterfly shape could changeMorning everybody, Actually there is just single update to the chart. On daily time frame we've got the bullish grabber. Theoretically it suggests upward action and here, on the 4H chart I've tried to show what could happen if it works. In this case BTC could show upside AB=CD action very close to butterfly's invalidation point, forming "222" Sell. So, the shape of butterfly could change. It makes no impact on its target and mostly is tactical adjustment, but it might be important to those of you, who are searching change to go short. This scenario provides good chance to make bet on butterfly with very tight stop. To keep butterfly valid - price has to stay below the "A" point (in red circle). This is invalidation point. Don't be short if price jumps out of it. Also don't be short, if price action will be fast. In current situation, as investors stand nervous and worry on D. Trump treatment, upside action on BTC hardly possible. Thus, we think that rally probably will be triggered by positive news on Trump recovery, or something of that sort. Otherwise, daily grabber could fail, and butterfly will go as it was suggested initially.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
12
Pure bet on NFP numbersGreetings everybody, Market reasonably stands flat in recent few sessions as everybody waits for NFP numbers that should have decisive meaning, because of lack of any other information. Indeed, positive NFP supports USD and should trigger downside action on BTC. Because they mean that no new liquidity will be provided until elections. The opposite is also true and poor NFP should trigger upside action. Thus, despite what we see here - any trade now is just a bet on NFP numbers. Still technical picture keeps our bearish patterns and until price stands below 11.2K area - bearish context holds. Besides, on daily chart we see signs of bearish dynamic pressure as trend has turned bullish but price action is stagnating. Thus, bears could consider short entry (if you feel comfortable to trade on NFP report release) with stops above 11.2K, while bulls could either use Stop "Buy" order above the same 11.2K. Alternatively, if still our patterns will work - wait for 9K target. On 1H chart we see only minor "222" Sell. Use this chart together with previous idea - the butterfly there is still valid.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Recent upward action is not sufficient to break the scenario yetMorning everybody, Despite some bullish activity on Friday, by our view it is not sufficient yet to break existing bearish setup on the market. In fact, everything is based on 11.2K top. Bulls have to wait either upward breakout of this level or completion of our major scenario with 9K target. We have positive outlook for long perspective and think that market stands in accumulation mode. But in the shorter term we can't ignore major driving factors on the market - lack of liquidity stimulus from US government, rising CV19 cases, confusing Fed statement and coming US elections make investors nervous. And as we saw in March - BTC is not treated as safe-haven, this is just the source of the liquidity, as well as stocks and the gold. Safe-haven as US Bonds and US dollar. And BTC, despite that it stands well this week, will feel the same impact as other markets this week. This makes us keep our daily bearish scenario valid. On the chart you can see what particular pattern could lead price to 9K - butterfly target coincides with daily AB-CD. Only action above "A" top erases the butterfly and could change short-term scenario drastically. But in current environment chances seems small to see it.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
Very weak bullish background to take long position by farGreetings everybody, So, first reaction, based on our 4H "222" Sell pattern looks nice, and it seems that it should continue, based on the situation that we see on stocks and other markets across the board. Thus, currently we do not see yet the reasons to change our daily view and expectations of deeper downside action. At first glance on 1H chart situation looks so that market could go up as we have divergence with MACD etc. But actually we have nothing else. 5/8 Fib level has been broken, market has not formed the butterfly "Buy" pattern here. Thus, maybe very small retracement is possible and appearing of puny "222" Sell here, but now we do not see sufficient context to plan any bullish trades. I also put 3-Drive shape here, maybe it will be formed, but as you can see it is not very accurate as 2nd drive stands not at1.27 extension. Thus, 3-Drive is also under question. That's being said, if you have shorts - keep them, just tight stops to breakeven or tighter. For long entry - be a bit more patient, wait a bit more and see whether more confirmation will appear. Currently we have not sufficient context by our view to buy BTC.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Minor detailMorning folks, Market was so lazy last week, that actually not much to add. The only minor detail - bearish divergence on 1H chart. As our 4H "222" Sell is ready to trigger, divergence and minor bearish grabber bring additional confidence. All other things stand the same: target 8.8-9.1 daily K-support, invalidation point 11.20-11.40 resistance on 4H chart, just take a look at previous idea chart. So, if you consider short entry - this is good idea to consider. Bulls have to wait either upside breakout and erasing of this scenario or target completion.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1