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10K area stands in focus this weekGreetings everybody, So, market was so dead last week that we've made the only update on Monday. Still, coming Fed meeting is promised to be more interesting and provide some activity this time. Everything that we've said last week is still valid. We still keep our short-term bearish view and still think that BTC should show deeper retracement before finally will reverse up and follow to our long-term bullish scenario. Now we have mostly tactical questions on how deep it could drop and from what point it could start dropping. Last week we said that upside scenario could vary, starting from 10.68 and right till 11.10K area. So, 10.60 was reached last week and maybe somebody of you already have taken short positions. This week we intend to keep an eye on 10K area. Close look at 1H chart shows that long lasting action has the shape of bottom and extended choppy H&S pattern. Thus, 10K is the level where potentially the right arm could be formed or failed. Thus, if price holds above 10K - more probable is upside extension to 10.80$ resistance or even higher, i.e. completion of H&S target. Conversely breaking of 10K suggests failure of the bullish shape and direct action down to previously specified 8.8-9.1K area. Possible higher upside action here, on 1H chart doesn't change our view on daily and we still expect downside continuation. Here we treat the action only as retracement, which means that daily downside action could be re-established from different, higher level. That's all.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
15
Minor retracement to 10.68-10.83 then drop to $8.8-9.1KGreetings everybody, BTC has dropped to ultimate XOP target of our H&S pattern directly. This means two things for us. First is, we cancel weekly AB-CD scenario with 14.5K target and turn to monthly butterfly pattern. It suggests that downside action will continue, as price now starts to form right wing of this pattern. As sell-off on daily was strong, we expect that it will continue, and next target is daily K-support area around 8.8-9.1K. But, as price now also stands at support of XOP target and minor 5/8 Fib level, some technical response to this area also could happen. Ultimate level for pulback is 11.1K, but we treat 10.68-10.83 as most probable destination.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
11
11.51-11.52 then to 10.68$Morning guys, So, both our setups are done well. And now, actually we should return back to previous idea of 4H H&S pattern. You could find it in my ideas just two steps back. Now, theoretically you already should have bearish position, as last setup with bullish upside H&S pattern was the preparation and way to the top of right arm of 4H pattern. Recent sell-off was nice and in a row with H&S pattern. Now price stands at daily 5/8 Fib support and neckline. Here it is too later for any moderate pullback. We could let price just to flirt with neckline a bit and then we would like to get the breakout. Any deep pullback is negative for bearish scenario and should be treated with suspicions. IT means that on 1H chart we could consider minor retracement to K-resistance area and completion of "222" Sell' pattern. That's all. Then we would like to get our H&S target around 10.70$. Maybe tomorrow's NFP will help us. Let's see...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Still watching for 12-12.15KMorning folks, Here is short update of our previous setup, use this chart in combination with previous one - 4H H&S potential pattern. Recall, that there, on 4H we're watching for the right top that theoretically should be completed around 12-12.15K area. Market has started gradual action to it. Meantime on 1H shart, right around neckline of large pattern, we have potential reverse H&S that could work as foundation for this upside action to 12-12.15K area. Now it almost stands in place and again - needs to form the right arm as well. Thus, combining of these two patterns intraday traders could use these setups, depending on personal opinion. Want to buy - follow reversed pattern, sell - wait for completion of the larger one. In both patterns follow to classical approach, as invalidation point of h&S is the head. Control the way how market forms it, price has to hold harmonic balance between the shoulders as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching on the FedMorning folks, So, our recent "222" Sell has worked, but this is not the major point right now. BTC has formed slightly new bottom, that opens road to deeper retracement within next week. As other markets across the board mostly expect dovish statement from the Fed today, BTC could join this party, if indeed they will be so. It makes us think about upside action to 12.1K area but then for deeper retracement, back to the lows. All this stuff could take the shape of H&S. If Powell will tell something, or hint on inflation etc - this will be not dovish comments and BTC could drop immediately without any H&S. So, today unfortunately not everything in our hands. Forming of H&S and deeper retracement doesn't break yet medium-term bullish context, as H&S target stands above 10.50K lows. So it is just slightly deeper retracement inside longer-term bullish tendency by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
Just few to talk about todayMorning folks, So, our minor downside continuation has happened, although the shape of suggested AB-CD pattern has become a bit different. Still, overall price action stands very lazy in recent 1-2 weeks and almost provides no topics for discussion. In general, we do not see any worrying signs and market still keeps bullish context. It's invalidation point still stands around 10.5K. Maybe some short-term problems could appear if price drops below 11.1K as well. But no of these events now stand on horizon. It means that currently we could do just one thing - keep an eye on intraday charts, trying to catch any patterns on signs that agrees with the context. Thus, take a look, on 1H now we have minor "222" Sell, but what is more interesting - the price action inside the circle, it might be reverse H&S right at Fib K-support area. Once & if it will be formed - that at least something that we could try to use...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Background looks a bit too bearish in short-termGreetings everybody, Daily and higher time frame context still stands bullish, at least until price above 10.5K area. While in short-term, we aware of a bit deeper retracement. Once our last target around 12.5K has been hit, we have hoped for smaller pullback, as we've got acceleration on 1H chart to the target. Still, BTC has dropped more, erasing the whole upside swing, forming bearish reversal one on 1H chart. This, in turn, looks like wash and rinse of daily stops. Thus, it makes us suggest another leg down on 1H chart, before BTC could get the chance to re-establish upside action. Now price stands at 1H support area, where we could get the bounce, i.e. BC leg of future AB=CD pattern... Depending on your view, you could - either buy here with tight stops just below the lows and move stops to b/e asap during forming of BC leg. Alternatively, just do nothing, wait when the whole AB=CD will be in place and then try to buy lower. If you would like to sell - wait for the same upside pullback, and watch for small bearish patterns, such as "222" Sell for example around Fib resistance levels (not shown here). That's actually all that we could do, as market stands really tight.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
Following to butterflyGood morning folks, Market behaves quiet and just few things that we could add to previous view. In general, while price stands above 10.5K - it keeps our butterfly valid, as well as short-term bullish context. Thus, if you have taken longs already last week - now you could move stops to breakeven. If you did not - you could consider downside AB=CD inside the butterfly. In this case we also will get "222" Buy" and better entry price inside the pattern. Butterfly itself takes more common shape... This scenario under "if" sign, because I'm not sure that it definitely happens. All other things remains the same. Upside target is 12.5K... Invalidation point - 10.5K lows.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Above 10.5K market keeps chances on upside continuationMorning folks, Last time we've discussed two upside scenarios. First one is based on minor butterfly and have suggested immediate upside continuation, while second one stands in relation to higher time frame and the pattern that could be formed there. As you can see, our minor butterfly stopped at 1.27 and then market has turned down. Still, this is just minor detail that doesn't change the core. Because we have butterfly on daily chart and while market stands above 10.5K lows - it keeps chances on upside continuation. Nearest target stands around 12.5K. Thus, if you plan to buy - try to do this as closer to the bottom as possible, just to minimize possible loss. Currently price already stands at 5/8 support area
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Bearish trade should be cancelled by farMorning folks, Our previous setup is based on reversal daily session and we've suggested appearing of "222" Sell pattern on 4H chart. Now this pattern stands in place. But yesterday BTC has formed bullish grabber pattern that suggests upside action above the top. In current circumstances, our "222" could give us just minimal target of 30% downside retracement and now it would be better to not count on drop to 10.2K area in a shape of downside AB-CD pattern. Thus, either focus on just minor target or better to not follow bearish setup at all.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
Deeper retracement should followMorning folks, Last week BTC has met first major target on daily chart. As it stands overbought and formed reversal bar, we expect that deeper retracement should happen, at least to 10K area. Probably it will be in a way of downside AB-CD (H&S) pattern. It means that today some minor upward pullback is possible, on lower time frame it could be "222" Sell pattern, somewhere to 11.3-11.5 and then downside action has good chances to happen, at least to 10K support.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement today and new daily targetMorning folks, So volatility is back and BTC has completed not only our 1.27 butterfly but 1.618 that is also daily COP target. As price now is overbought on daily, we suggest pullback today, at least to 10.5K 4H support level. It is suitable for buy trade, as upside pullback should be at least for 5/8, or even direct upside continuation. Anyway, nobody denies using of b/e stops, right? Once retracement will be over, our next daily target is ~14.65K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
10.85KMorning guys, Today is great news as market stands at 10.2K and ready to challenge the daily top. This is promised to be the decisive journey as a lot of things will change is BTC will break it up. But this is different story. Now, as you can see market not just has hit our OP target but has reached XOP 1.618 extension, breaking 5/8 Fib level and totally erased downside AB-CD pattern. So, context here stands bullish and we need to set new target. Most logical is to consider some upside extensions and nearest one stands in the shape of butterfly with 10.85K destination point. As BTC is not at overbought or at some Fib resistance, we should not get too deep pullback. Most probable is 10K and 9.8K levels on 1H chart where position might be taken.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
9.7-9.8K is a next targetGreetings everybody, So, our bullish scenario is completed on 1H chart and now we could increase the scale a bit, turning to 4H chart. Now we see two potential patterns. First one is AB-CD with 9.7-9.8K target that agrees with major 5/8 Fib resistance level. This is our next objective point. Next one is potential H&S pattern, with the neckline right at this 9.8K Fib level, but this is the subject for next week discussion. As market has broken the trend line, Fib K-resistance area - it confirms short-term bullish context. Thus, we could expect upside continuation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
9.1K is a key level todayMorning folks, BTC dramatically has lost volatility and last week we were able to trade just minor AB-CD pattern target on 1H chart. In two words speaking, I'm not very fascinating with any buying here, as price action shows no bullish activity and no impulse that could suggest upside continuation. Thus, although we have potential pattern that theoretically could trigger higher extension, but I think that bears now stand in better position. We'll see... So, to change current context market should not form any new lows and has to show reversal inside the previous swing. Now I see only one pattern that could do this - this is reverse H&S. Thus 9.1K level of right arm's bottom will be the key one as for the sentiment as for trading this pattern. If market fails here and starts dropping again - big chances that it follows to the next target of the same AB-CD pattern that stands around 8.8K area. Thus, if you have bullish view, you could try to buy around 9.1K with stops below the 9.0K head. Not big stop for BTC market. Target will be around 9.8K I suppose. If you have bearish view - you could try to use Sell stop order around the head bottom as well - the same 9.0K area. Here first target is 8.8k, potentially it could drop to 8.150K S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Keep the same courseMorning folks, Minor update is here. On 1H picture, you do not see some things that stand on daily chart and 4H chart. In two words speaking, things that I see absolutely do not inspire me to consider long entry on BTC. It seems that some hidden bearish pressure exists here. Currently I do not exclude scenario with downside breakout and retracement to major 8K K-support area on daily chart within a week or so. Thus, despite that market now stands at intraday 5/8 Fib support, I still think that our AB=CD pattern has good chances to be completed (to say the least). To get total relax and assurance that BTC stands in long-term bull trend price has to move above 10K top. Until this happens any upside action are not reliable enough and might become just minor upside extension before deeper drop.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
9K looks probable nowMorning folks, Market moves very slowly these days, and barely make the single trade on intraday charts per week. As you can see our recent trading plan is done accurately. Now is the question what to do next. In two words speaking - currently I'm not fascinating about any long position as bearish tendency on 4H chart is still intact. I would consider long trades only if market breaks 9.5K top and strong Fib resistance (where we've taken our short trade by the way). That's why now, it seems that another leg down could be formed in a way of AB=CD pattern with 9K target.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Pullback for ~300-350$Morning guys, Finally our 1H target is hit. Now price stands at strong resistance area that includes 3/8 and 5/8 Fib levels from different reaction points (K-area by DiNapoli framework) and our AB=CD target brings Agreement there either. So, today is solid chances on pullback, at least for 300$. Then we will see what will happen. If BTC will be able to hold above 9-9.1K area, it could proceed to 9.7 resistance. Otherwise it probably will turn down. Bitcoin keeps bullish context by far, but it is very fragile right now. We strongly need breakout of 10K top to speak on major trend continuation. Until this happen, here and there we could get minor bullish setups, as we did, but all of them are tactical mostly. Thus, be sensitive to any bearish signs, stay on guard.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
9.4K with upside potentialMorning everybody, Last week market was so lazy that it is nothing to discuss on higher time frames. Price played some tricks with our H&S pattern, grabbing the stops below initially formed right arm's bottom during NFP release. THus, market makers tricks start to appear on BTC market as well. Still, our bullish setup has not been erased as price holds above the head and H&S is valid. Thus we keep our short-term bullish view, which means no shorts and focus on 9.4K area. Potentially BTC could climb further as higher time frames hint on 10K area as well. As we've estimated in our monthly fundamental research - fundamental background stands positive as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
H&S is key to direction Morning everybody, Price action this week was so lazy that it was not needed to make any updates until today. But even today we have news only on intraday charts. If you remember from our last update we were considering upside AB-CD pattern to 9.4K area that is major 5/8 resistance. Although BTC was able to pass 2/3 of this distance but it was not able to complete it totally, changing the shape of price action on 1H chart. Now, we easily could recognize reverse H&S pattern that makes overall analysis simple. As Right arm's bottom is already in place, until price stands above it, BTC keeps chances to reach 9.4K area as H&S has the same target. This is first trading setup - bulls could consider long entry against the lows and 9.4K target. Conversely, downside breakout means H&S failure. In this case we expect downside acceleration and BTC indeed could reach our 8145 target on 4H chart within a week or so. This is setup for bears...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
8.0-8.1K?Morning folks, Miracle has not happened and BTC barely has completed 1H reverse H&S target. Fast drop below the neckline, below the right arm suggests drop below the head as well. Additional bearish signs on daily chart makes us think that we could go to next extended 1.618 AB-CD target at 8145 area that agrees with strong daily 8.0K Fib support. BTC could return bullish context if it climbs back above 9.8K level. Meantime, until this has not happened - we keep an eye on resistance levels and watch for bearish patterns, mostly for "222" Sell", as downside action could continue.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Keep an eye on 9100 areaMorning everybody, Markets are suspiciously quiet in recent few weeks and BTC is not an exception. In fact, we do not need higher time frames and could keep our journey with H&S pattern here. Just to remind you in two words our trading setup... We have downside AB-CD pattern and its major OP target is already has been hit. Potentially, market could turn up right from here and that's the reason why we were starting to watch here for bullish patterns. Last week we've identified reversed H&S pattern and opened long position. If H&S fails - price proceeds with AB-CD to its next XOP target around 8145 area. Thus, as we've already done everything, all preparation, we should control validity of H&S pattern. Move stops to breakeven. Keep an eye on 9.1K area in particular. Downside reversal and drop below the right arm's bottom, tells that H&S is failing and price will drop below recent lows. Despite that H&S looks not perfect, it is still valid and on daily chart we have some other bullish signs, so chances still exist that BTC could go higher.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten