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No longs until 63K is takenMorning folks, So, Thursday plan worked nice - market was around 63K. Now situation is a bit tricky. First is, geopolitical situation is coming to the boiling point. Any activation in Iran will make negative impact on BTC, besides [b ]we have bearish grabber on 10-year bonds , suggesting drop back to 3.65% level. So geopolitical worryings are not in vain. Gold is opened up today as well... Besides, on BTC itself we also have bearish grabber. Situation with sell-off in Japan is also not clear by far. And we get GDP numbers this week. So, BTC could become ones again the major sell-off victim. That's why, until market keeps daily grabber valid we stay aside from any long positions. This risk will be erased if price jumps back above 63K area again.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
57-59K to sellMorning folks, Wow, we've talked about just 60-61K pullback, but BTC just collapsed and has become once again the victim of sell-off. Investors sell "bad assets" to plug holes in balances of "good assets". And from this point of view - BTC is a "Holy cow" of this process. Besides, when 30% of the market is controlled by ETF, I wouldn't be surprised by any action. D. Trump needs as many BTC as he could get and he needs it cheap, so... BlackRock&Co still has a lot of job to do... Obviously patterns that we've discussed last time - just have not been formed, market just dropped, no H&S. So, based on daily picture, BTC is oversold now, but in perspective it is aimed on next downside target at 43K area. Now we're watching for technical bounce, at least to 57-59K area, where we return back to discussion of short entry. Scalpers could try to buy this bounce, if any bullish patterns will be formed on 1H and below. I mark this idea as bullish, because we're watching for the bounce. But our major view is bearish in longer term. Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Watching for 59-60K areaMorning folks, So, retracement that we've discussed on Mon is started, although we thought it will be from 71K area. But M. East escalation has triggered sell-off in risky assets, and even J. Powell comments was not able to support the market. Now, although our 3-Drive pattern still seems theoretical possible, chances stand in favor our 2nd pattern - H&S. So, if you trade on daily and above time frames, I wouldn't hurry up with entry right now. It seems BTC could drop more. At least we could consider next support of 59-60K area. Just keep an eye on H&S... If you're intraday trader - you could consider bullish setups around potential neckline with two upside targets - 66K and 65.7K . They are resistance on 1H chart: Later, it is possible to consider short position as well, with the H&S pattern. It's obvious.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
71.65K is the next oneMorning folks, So, our daily bullish setup has worked perfect - grabber has been formed and everything has started. Now BTC in fact has a free space right up to the ATH. So, we suggest that it should be aiming to challenge it. Still, we have another tactic resistance area - trendline on daily chart, based on tops. If we take a look at 4H chart and suggest 3-Drive "Sell" pattern, then it perfectly agrees with the 3rd Drive level - ~71.65K IT doesn't mean that we expect reversal there, although pullback is possible. We just use these extensions to estimate next upside step that BTC could make. Suddenly US bonds yield has dropped sharply which is supportive factor for BTC. Currently we do not see any bearish signs and suggest that BTC will try to reach ATH, if of course coming Fed meeting will not break the game...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Setups for any tasteMorning folks, So, as we've said - don't upset if you missed long entry as we will get the chance later. Now retracement is under way. WE have a few different trading scenarios. First is, those who would like to buy - our B&B "Buy" trade stands very close. Today we could get bullish grabber on daily chart that will be quite welcome. On 4H chart the B&B could take the shape of H&S, or, better to say, its right arm. Thus, those who wants to Sell - keep an eye on 66.50-67K area, where potentially right arm should be formed. Scalp traders also could watch for the bounce from the neckline to the right arm's top, say on 5-15 min chart, patterns etc., as usual. It is the only tricky moment concerning the neck. And this concern is based on 1H downside AB-CD. The problems is CD leg acceleration. The 1.0 AB=CD target is done already, and BTC could try to turn up right from here. But, acceleration tells that 1.618 target might be reach, which is around 62.25$. So, the compromise decision might be is to split position in parts and take it gradually...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Waiting for the deep to buyMorning folks, So, reaction on Biden's out is humble. Not only on BTC but across the board. Today it is a small update as nothing has changed significantly. Finally BTC has broken 66K resistance and now, officially, bearish weekly pattern is cancelled. At the same time, despite minor pullback, we haven't got clear H&S shape that we've counted on. Still, I prefer to wait for deep to buy rather than jump in running train. Previous bearish momentum is still here. Following this logic we could monitor intraday bearish patterns. Not for trading but to recognize starting point of retracement and estimate possible downside target. For now we could get either 3-Drive "Sell" or H&S, if BTC starts dropping right now. Other words speaking - context is bullish, we consider long entry, but watching for proper levels. Of course you could follow your own alternative strategy. Upside nearest target is the same - ATH.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Price has changed but the plan is the same 60.5-61.3KMorning folks, Not many things to talk about. BTC slightly stepped out from our plan, shown direct upside action to 65K resistance area. But it changes nothing - we have the same trading plan and wait for moderate pullback, supposedly with H&S shape. Now we change the potential entry level from 59-60K up to 60.5-61.3K... Let's keep watching. The role of 65-66K remains the same. Upside breakout will mean the road to the ATH and its challenge later in the month.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Under 60K BTC has bearish contextMorning guys, So, our idea with the upside bounce has worked perfect. Now price stands at strong resistance of 60K area. Until it stands below this level we suggest that bearish context remains. To start thinking about changing of the sentiment and consider long positions we need to see BTC somewhere around 64K and breaking through 60K strong resistance level. Today probably we could wait until CPI numbers will be released, but in general 60K resistance is rather strong, so here we could consider short entry again with moving stops to breakeven as soon as possible
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Watching for 60K to Sell againMorning folks, So, BTC has dropped slightly more, as we've suggested but daily oversold hasn't let it to touch strong weekly 50-52K area that we've mentioned. Despite that overall context remains bearish, we prefer to wait for some rally to sell into. BTC now near weekly K-support, just has completed daily OP downside target and at daily oversold. It would be nice if we get bounce to 60K area. But price action might be different. Either in a way of AB-CD, as it was last time. Or, it could try to flirt with lows and form downside butterfly. For taking a new short position this doesn't matter. But if you plan to take intraday long positions - this could be the challenge. We suggest that direct upside AB-CD is more probable, because of completed downside OP target and daily oversold. Anyway, our plan for now as follows - wait for a bounce, supposedly to 60K, then try sell again.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
50-52KMorning guys, So, our bearish entry with DiNapoli B&B "Sell" last time has worked perfect. And, as we've suspected, this trade has not stopped at just minimal target but has become the starting point of new big swing down. Obviously H&S on daily chart is failing, and it means that we will get drop under 55K. Next strong support stands around 50-52K area - weekly K-support area, oversold level and YPR1. Also do not forget that we have DRPO "Sell" on weekly chart that works perfectly and its common target stands around ~45K area. Now it is too early to speak about it, but 50-52K is quite in time. Obviously we do not consider any new longs by far. If you have missed last entry, you could watch for the same B&B "Sell" setup on 1H chart, if price will show upside bounce and re-test, say, previous lows. This also might be the chance to step in. But be aware of coming NFP report:
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Intraday bearish setup is readyMorning everybody, So, upside AB-CD bounce is done accurately. Now, as we said - those who would like to sell and try to make a bet on daily H&S failure has got nice setup. It calls as DiNapoli B&B "Sell" pattern. Upside AB-CD target is completed accurately at K-resistance area. Also you could recognize here minor upside butterfly, that also is done. Minimum downside target will be around 60-60.4K, which is 3K/coin which seems not bad for intraday setup. Besides, if bears will be right and H&S indeed will fail - trade has great potential down to 50K. Bulls who are still thinking about long entry should wait when B&B will be over. Supposedly it is possible to watch the same 60-60.4K area but avoid entry if we get strong downside impulse. For the bulls invalidation point is the same - bottom of the right arm on daily chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
63.5-64K for short entryMorning guys, In recent updates we've said a lot about overall situation and big picture with daily reverse H&S that is ready to fail, and probably will fail. Today we could focus on particular trading setup that is based on recent market drop. This is DiNapoli B&B "Sell" trade, a.k.a "Momentum" trade. The background is simple - strong downside momentum on daily chart that should reverse any 1st pullback. Thus, we could use it to sell into. By looking at 1H chart, it seems that 63.50-64K might be suitable for this purpose. Let's keep watching.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
60K is a final checkMorning guys, Today BTC hits 62.50$ - our downside XOP target on daily chart (see previous update), and 62.50-64.2K area was mentioned as the one where potential right arm of big reverse H&S pattern should be formed. Nominally, this pattern is still valid, but today I show you performance on 1H chart that clearly shows problems for bulls. Normally, when market is ready to go with the bullish context - it shows very logical action, completing downside targets, forming bullish reversal in predefined place. Now take a look - as H&S as 3-Drive patterns have failed. This is bad sign for bullish context. This is the reason why we do not consider any long positions again, and prefer to watch for 60K support area. Because this is last chance for the bulls. Downside breakout will open the road to 50-52K area. Once 60K area will be touched - watch intraday charts. Market has to form bullish reversal pattern if bulls still control situation. I set this idea as "neutral", because to qualify it as bearish we need 60K downside breakout. At the same time I can't call it as bullish because of reasons specified above.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
64-64.5K areaMorning folks, Recent Fed meeting results have made impact on short-term BTC performance as well. Although our major bullish context based on daily reverse H&S pattern remains valid, BTC could try to move slightly lower. So, the right shoulder on daily chart will be more harmonic to the left one. In general, until BTC stands above 61K - H&S pattern will remain valid. Meantime, on 4H chart we've got bearish engulfing pattern that has a target around 64-64.5K area. We will se how it works and then return back to idea of long entry with major daily bullish pattern. Today I market setup as "bearish" because it relates to intraday action.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
Still watching for 74.5-75K targetMorning folks, Mostly this idea is a continuation of the previous one, but there I've put too many updates already. So let's make the new one... BTC also was hurt a bit by NFP numbers on Friday but not as strong as EUR or Gold market. We suggest that it keeps bullish context valid. Besides, we've got bullish grabber on Friday as well. Our nearest upside target remains the same - around 74.5-75K area. The trades that you could make here are depend on pattern that you would like to follow and personality. Speaking about big reverse H&S - nothing has changed here. You could wait for 63-64K area where the right arm should be formed, you apply gradual accumulation of the position. Since we had bearish reversal session on Friday, market could move slightly lower and if you're aimed on the butterfly, you could wait for slightly deeper retracement. Finally the grabber - if you want to trade grabber then you need to buy right at current levels. Or you could combine it with butterfly trading as well... THey have just slightly different stop levels. So, choose your poison. :)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
74.75K seems the nearest oneMorning folks, So, as we've said, if BTC breaks 69K it should go higher. That we see now. Nearest upside target is based on the same pattern - reverse H&S that we're trading for a couple of weeks already. It stands at 74.75K But at the same time, I would like to show you this one - reverse H&S on top. If we see that BTC starts falling fast, it could be not the signal of reversal but the forming of the right arm. Just be prepared to this scenario if BTC starts showing fast downside action. For primary scenario (direct upward action to 74.75) we consider two support levels, where long entry might be interesting - 68K and 66.10K We consider no shorts by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Two targets that could change everythingMorning folks, So, our H&S starts perfect. Tactically we've missed a bit, expecting upside turn around 59.5K area, but data releases and putting down of ETH ETH perspectives have supported earlier upside reversal. Also Hong Kong is very active with opening domestic ETF's that boost BTC demand among Chinese population. Now our H&S pattern has two target. Nearest and the most important one is around 69.15K. It is vital because it directly relates to monthly bearish engulfing pattern. While next upside target with our H&S will be 74.74K. If 67-69K will be broken, then monthly bearish pattern will be erased and it will be quite bullish. That's being said, let's keep watching for 69.15K first and then for reaction around it.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
We need to check 59-59.5K areaMorning folks, So, everything is going with the plan by far. Market has reached ~60K area where potential right arm of our 4H reverse H&S pattern should stay. But here is a minor tricky thing. Overall performance doesn't look bullish by far. On 1H chart it even looks bearish. We have downside acceleration and uncompleted XOP target that makes an Agreement with 59.5K Fib support level. Let's treat it as the support of last resort for the short-term trading setup. So, keep it short, there are to options. If you scare to miss the trade, you could try to take long position right now but at the same time place stop below 59K or even better below 58.3K area. Conversely, conservative approach tells that it makes sense to wait when&if BTC hits 59K support area and then see what will happen. Personally I like the 2nd way more. Besides, we could totally escape possible collapse if it will happen and BTC will just break 59K support area down...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for reversal signsMorning everybody, So, the first step of our trading plan is done - market is around 61K, which is intraday strong support area. It is preferable if upside action starts from here, although downside continuation to next support and XOP target will not become a tragedy yet, but will be looking worse with lower chances on success. Now we need to watch for small bullish patterns around this area. Once and If we get it - we could consider long entry. Our nearest upside target is around 67K
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
First - watching for 62K, then 67KMorning folks, So, everything goes with the plan, although the upside bounce that we've discussed is stronger than we thought. It means that bearish long-term patterns are still valid, say on monthly chart, we do not consider short entry right now. Vice versa, there are a few bullish patterns might be formed intraday. First is reverse H&S with 67K neckline, second is, the same on 1H chart. Thus, if we get lucky and the pullback to ~ 62K area prior BTC hits 67K , we could consider long entry. Otherwise, wait when BTC hits 67K neckline and wait when the right arm will be formed, as usual.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
50.2-52K mid term targetMorning guys, So it seems we've correctly reversed our position down from 62K area. Today we increase the scale a bit and take a look at daily chart. Indeed BTC has broken triangle down as we've suggested. But it is more important that it also has broken K-support level and only oversold stops the downside continuation. This makes us to consider next downside target as 50.5-52K where next strong support stands. But before that BTC could show tactical bounce up to 60.5 area because of oversold, and maybe re-test broken triangle line. I'll anyway mark this update as "bearish" although first we could get the upside bounce... Profit to everybody, All the best...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten