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Double way to go longMorning guys, In last three sessions BTC is coiling around the top, keeping bullish sentiment intact. Still, price is strongly overbought on daily chart and it needs some relief, either in a way of flat consolidation or in way of slightly deeper retacement. On 4H chart we have minor bearish sign - Wash and rinse of previous top, which could lead to appearing of minor double top pattern here and slightly deeper retracement, some where to 7000-7200 area. Thus, for long entry we need to keep an eye on two things - either deeper retracement with the pattern, or upside breakout of recent top. Entry technique also should be different. It is simple entry on downside retracement, but to take the position on upside breakout it would be better to use stop entry order. The one thing that you need to control - daily overbought. Do not bet on upside breakout by using stop entry order, if BTC is still overbought on daily chart...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
9042$ is next targetMorning guys, BTC shows real strength showing just minor reaction on our OP (AB=CD) target on daily chart and ignoring daily Overbought condition. No intraday AB=CD retracement down has happened yesterday and BTC just continues upside action. But our B&B "Buy" has done perfect ;) So, our trading plan suggests two moments. First is - reaching of next target at 9042 area. It stands in wide natural weekly resistance of 8500-10K zone. Since BTC was in downside action for a long time - bearish momentum still exists on the market. This is the reason for our second stage - watching for signs of retracement after XOP will be hit. Maybe it will be intraday H&S, daily DiNapoli "DRPO "Sell" or something. But somewhere around 9K area moderate ratracement should start, at least by technical reasons. This is our setup for few sessions...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tactical retracement and then up to 8500$Morning guys, BTC shows real strength easily passing through major weekly K-resistance area of 6500$. By breaking this area it has passed intro another trading range and now our medium-term target stands at 8500-10K area. But upward action should continue after tactical retracement. On daily chart market hits OP target and daily Overbought. IT suggests a bit deeper 2-leg retracement, aprox. to 6400$ area. On 1H chart you can see how it could turn - this is our major short-term scenario for few sessions. First is upside action circa 7300 and forming "222" Sell. Then larger AB=CD down to 6400$. Our detailed analysis, including weekly/daily and 4H chart you can see in video on our website or youtube channel. Here we provide view of 1 session.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
First test of weekly resistanceMorning guys, As we've suggested BTC continues upside action as it is free space above 5600 and till 6300-6400 area. But yesterday price finally tests weekly K-resistance area for the first time. It means two things. Daily/weekly traders should think about profit taking, at least partially and tight stops on the rest of position. Intraday traders should use current top as a beacon of profit taking on intraday trades. As overall bullish momentum stands strong, we do not expect sharp downside reversal and market probably will spend some time around resistance with multiple attempts to challenge it. Thus, scalp long positions could be taken with target around recent top. For example, now market could drop back to broken channel line, which is also 3/8 support and this is a point for scalp trade.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Road to 6400-6500 is openMorning guys, As we've mentioned previously, to keep bullish sentiment, market should not show deep retracement. Particular speaking we were watching for a kind of diamond consolidation on 4H chart. BTC has completed this condition. Indeed that was true acceleration up, and retracement was shy. As market has no real barriers above, right to our major target of 64-6500 Weekly K-resistance area, it should continue to climb higher. On hourly chart we have nice channel and price stands at upper trendline. As '222" patterns were forming regular, we could watch for something of this kind. Now it seems that 5830-5850 area could be considered for potential long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
It's time to increase the scale...Morning guys, BTC shows real strength, shows minor reaction on potential daily 3-Drive "sell", mostly ignoring it. Intraday bearish patterns that we've mentioned yesterday also has been erased. Now BTC stands above major daily resistance of 5600, ignoring bearish patterns that could become a background of healthy reaction on resistance. It means that BTC shows real strength. In current circumstances we have to increase the scale and see what stands ahead as all daily levels have been broken already. As we've said last week, our next upside target is 6500. And here is why - this is natural support/resistance area and former all time 5/8 Fib support. But it is not all yet. Here we also have weekly K-resistance area of two Fib levels. Normally, market should show meaningful reaction on such a strong area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Reaction on 5840 area has started. Deeper retracement under way.Morning guys, So, it seems that we were correct on our call to be careful around 5840$ area. In fact, this could be 3-Drive "sell" pattern. On intraday charts it looks more bright. In two words speaking - bulls' failure to push price through recent tops means that they are trapped in wrong direction with stops below recent lows, where majority of traders have taken long positions. On 4H chart we have Double Repo "Sell" pattern which suggests deeper retracement. Once stops will be triggered, BTC could drop more, to 5/8 Fib support or even lower. We do no exclude to see 5200$ area. Ultimately, 3-Drive idea on daily chart suggests drop below lows between 2nd and 3rd drives. So, those who want to go long - dont' be hasty with this, and wait for ending of retracement and appearing of bullish patterns, such as "222" Buy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
be aware of 5840$ areaMorning guys, As we've suggested the price action around right arm's top of our H&S pattern will give us the direction. Now we've got it, direction is up. We have multiple targets above, but right now it is more interesting how to jump in. We think that it would be better to wait for some pullback. This could give us few different patterns. Thus, we could get DiNapoli B&B "Buy" on 4H chart around major 3/8 Fib support, and/or "222" Buy pattern as well. Jumping in right now provides unclear risk/reward ratio and could be costly. Besides we warn you - keep an eye on 5840$. Although BTC behaves strong on daily, breaking through major 5/8 resistance area, we still have there the risk factor - possible 3-Drive "Sell" pattern, which could start from 5840. Thus, if surprisingly, BTC starts dropping around this area - don't take long position and wait.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Waiting for right arm of H&S patternMorning guys, By our view, the H&S pattern that is forming here, on 4H chart should provide clarity on further direction. As market has turned to upside action, we adjust the neckline and make it sloped a bit. Now market is forming upside AB-CD action, which target coincides with 5/8 Fib resistance level. This Agreement could become the top of right arm. Although we do not care much where top will be - either at OP target or slightly higher, with harmony with left arm. We're mostly interested in what will happen right at top. H&S failure means action to 6500 while, validity means drop to 4600 area and completion of daily "222" Sell pattern. It means that if you want to go short - best area is the top of the right arm. It doesn't guarantee success, but it provides best entry point with minimal potential loss and best risk/reward ratio. For bulls - it would be better to wait clarity with H&S, particular speaking - its failure. Otherwise, taking long position while H&S is still forming is rather risky and could be expensive journey.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
6500 or 4600$ ?Morning guys, It seems that our 3-Drive "sell" Setup works nice by far and market comes to the final target, which is lows between 2nd and 3rd drive. Daily grabbers that we've mentioned yesterday have the same destination point. But what will happen next? Well, since upside rally has not bad pace, it is logical to suggest deep retracement, which, in turn, leads us to possible H&S shape. And, as it always happens, the top of right arm is a key to next direction. If BTC market indeed is bullish, it should break 5500$ potential right arm top. In this case we expect failure of H&S and challenge of 6500 area Conversely, downside reversal around 5500$ will trigger H&S pattern, with downside AB=CD target around major daily 3/8 support of 4600-4700$ area. This is our short-term expectations. In nearest 2-3 session we're watching for final leg to 4900 lows and starting of deep upside bounce to 5500$, and then we'll see...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Patterns suggest 4900$ areaMorning guys, BTC starts natural reaction on 4H 3-Drive sell pattern that we've discussed in our previous reports. As we mentioned already, depsite nice rally in April, it is long way to go, as market was falling too long and too deep. Thus, to break major downside tendency, BTC has to climb at least above 6500, but better above 8500$. Thus, any fluctuations below 6500$ will keep "222" Sell pattern valid. But this is too long-term discussion. In shorter-term, we've got two side by side bearish grabbers on top. As they coincide with 4H 3-Drive - all three patterns have the same target - 4900$ lows. Thus, if you have bullish view, then it would be better to wait either for upside breakout and erasing of all patterns, or, reaching of th target. Bears could keep positions that were opened with 4H 3-Drive "sell", I suppose, just do not forget to manage stops...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3-Drive buy is completedMorning guys, Recently we've suggested that BTC stands at the eve of strong action, but for upside breakout it needs external push as inner power exhaust. With recent spike up BTC has completed our 3-Drive "Sell" pattern. On a BTC it is always difficult to make long-term forecasts as this market is very thin and could be easily manipulated by holders of big wallets. Now odds suggest reasonable pullback. At least theoretically 3-Drive minimum target is the bottom between 2nd and 3rd drives. Thus, bulls should wait for reasonable pullback. Bears could try to sell, using this 3-Drive. Now we need to keep an eye on retracement how strong and deep it will be. This should let us to undertsand what to expect
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
5500 keeps both ways openMorning guys, Until market stands below 5500 top, it keeps door open for both ways. Yes, recent rally looks impressive, and this was the first positivea action for long, long term. But, what technical picture tells us? On weekly/daily we still have bearish tendency and rally was an AB=CD retracement to major 5/8 Fib resistance, which actually gives us '222" Sell pattern. On intraday charts, after drop from the top, the whole upside action still stands inside the bearish swing and keeps chances on other bearish patterns as well. Upside action shows exhausting, which makes us suggest appearing of "222"Sell around 5416 area. This is 1.618 AB=CD target which agrees with deep 88% Fib resistance. Yes we have alternative scenario of 3-DRive pattern, but market is losing the pace. With this speed 3-Drive will be completed somewhere in June, this is too long for this pattern. And these thoughts lead us to conclusion. First is, if you're bearish, it will be the chance to sell with '222" Sell around 5416 area. Use breakeven stop as soon as possible. But this is just tactical conclusion. What is really interesting - it seems that BTC market should get some external push in nearest time. 3-Drive could be completed, only if BTC shows fast acceleration. But now it could happen only by some external driving factor. Technically recent upside action looks weak and slow. Otherwise we should be ready for collapse...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
3-Drive upside pattern is possibleMorning guys, yesterday we've talked about "222" Buy on 4H chart, as BTC stands at 5/8 Fib resistance and formed "222" Sell pattern. Now there are new moments exist here that mostly have relation to the price behavior around resistance. Take a look at now significant action has started, market is coiling around and price action mostly reminds a sideways action. Yes, minor 3-Drive "Sell" has been formed, but it is already completed. Sideways action around major resistance hints on some hidden strength. Now major breakout at any side has happened yet, but now we have to take in consideration possible upside action as well. As a result we could get 4H 3-Drive "sell" pattern with potential target around 5600 instead of "222" Buy. At the same time, as no direction has been chosen yet, it would be better to wait a bit and see. Upside continuation and breakout of 3-Drive top here will tell that BTC moves higher, while downside breakout turns us back to idea of 4H "222" Buy pattern. Alternitavely, it is possible to use stop entry orders on breakout of extreme points...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
DAX could reach 14500 levelMorning guys, Here we come again with extraodinary forecast, as usual. We update our long-term view on DAX 30 Index. Our last year suggestion was a large H&S pattern. But it had one weak moment - Dow Jones has not completed all time extension target, while all other major indexes, such as DAX, NASDAQ already have done it. We've made a forecast on DJIA few months ago that it should reach new highs before collapse. Now we see that DAX price behavior also has changed. Although our minor H&S pattern has worked perfet and DAX has completed it 1.618 ultimate target around 10300 lows, but price has not dropped more and not reached the neckline of large pattern, but turned up instead. This is irrational action for any H&S pattern and it makes us deny it. Another reason, DAX has climbed above the neckline of first, minor H&S, which is also not normal for bearish market. Combining DAX price action and DJIA forecast, it seems that we could get huge 3-Drive "Sell" with 14500 potential reversal point...
INDEX:DEU40Long
by Sive-Morten
2
H&S is possible on 1HMorning guys, BTC stands well with our trading plan, as response on strong daily resistsance starts to form and downside action finally has started. Shortly speaking, we expect at least 3/8 retracement somewhere to 4500-4600$ area and it could happen that market is forming 1.27 H&S pattern, which has the target right around major support. There are some issues around this pattern exist that we've discussed in daily video on our FPA site. Also we still have suspicouns concerning recent rally as it has no real positive background and now a lot of rumors that was a kind of Ddos action on BTC price but not real splash of demand... we'll see.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Moderate 30% retracement is still on the tableMorning guys, BTC is coiling around the top, and we still think that for any long position taking, it would be better to get two things on the back - strong support area and bullish pattern. Thus, on 4H chart we could wait for pullback to 4430-4580 area and it would be nice if we will get "222" Buy pattern. Meantime, market is forming wedge pattern, Wash & rinse of the top already has happened and price barely touches the upper border of the wedge. This is signs of weakness. Once rally has happened we've announced our suspicions concerning its durability, because as it was information in the net that it could be a kind of Ddos action among major BTC holders to shift price higher. As soon as attack was fininshed - market turnover has dropped miserably. BTC market has very low liquidity and it is easy to manipulate prices. This is the reason why we do not hurry to bet on upside continuation as we need to see clear signs of real money joining the rally. Thus we still think that chances on retracement down, at least 3/8 are high enough.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Retracement is still on the table as Double Top is possibleMorning guys, The whole last week we were watching for price action around major daily resistance that actually includes major 1.618 AB-CD daily target, major 5/8 Fib resistance and daily Overbought. Normally, such combination suggests at least some moderate pullback, say 3/8. It creates two different setups for bears and bulls. Those who wants to buy should wait - it is not good idea to jump in at daily resistance and overbought. Thus, wait for either some pullback, at least 3/8 or upside breakout. If BTC breaks strong daily resistance without response this shows some hidden strength and suggests upside continuation. Bears should be focused only on tactical, short-term trade in current circumstances. To take a position we need clear bearish pattern that we do not have yet. Last week we watched for H&S, but it was not formed as BTC has failed to form right arm of this pattern. But, while market stands below the top - it keeps chances on retracement. Another pattern that could be formed is Double Top. Right now we see puny wash & rinse of first top - this is very typical action for D. Top pattern. And this is the moment to make a decision on short entry against recent top, if you have bearish view on the market.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Reaction on daily resistance with 4400-4500$ bounceMorning guys, As BTC has hit strong resistance on daily chart and Overbought level, we're watching for normal technical reaction and expect at least 3/8 retracement to strong 4H 4400-4500 support area. On 1H chart the pattern that could become a background of this reaction is H&S. It is not completed totally yet and still stands underway, but, overall shape is recognizable already. Thus, bears could try to use this pattern for fast trade down, while bulls should wait when retracement will be over. 4400-4500 is the first level that is suitable for this purpose. Besides, we could get large "222" Buy there...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4340-4440 pullback?Greetings, So, yesterday we've mentioned strong daily resistance area that includes AB-CD target, Fib level and daily Overbought. Normally, market should react and show at least 3/8 pullback. It means that current area is not good point for taking long position immediately and bulls should wait a bit. Taking short position in current circumstances is a real challenge and could be expensive journey. Still, if you decide - wait for clear pattern on intraday chart and place stop somewhere above daily Fib resistance and overbought level. Right now we see only "222" Sell on 30-min chart. As a target you could use our 4340-4440 strong intraday support area. But, most interesting thing is a durability of this rally. Whether this is new bulltrend or occasional action that we saw previously many times. Time should answer on this question within 1-2 weeks probably.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten