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63K looks interesting for long entryMorning folks, As we've promised on Thu last week, the close of the week will be most important thing that could change everything. That has happened. AS BTC has closed 5K higher - we haven't got any bearish engulfing on monthly chart for now. But what is more important - we have bullish grabber on weekly, suggesting that price should challenge ATH again. Not necessary the breakout should follow, but re-test it at least. Thus, based on intraday performance, it might happen that now we're getting reverse H&S pattern, and an area around 63K where the right arm might be formed, seems interesting for long entry...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
64-65K pullback is possibleMorning folks, Although BTC situation is changing and not to the good (we've talked about last time), market now stands at strong support area. 59-60K is strong daily support and oversold level. While here, BTC has done "222" target, suggesting that at least 30% pullback, somewhere to 64-65K area is possible. But, in longer term, drop under 60K will push price down to 50K at least, because of bearish patterns on monthly and weekly charts. Right now we do not consider any shorts, as market is oversold. If you consider intraday bullish trade - wait for clear reversal patterns there that we do not have yet, before taking the position. But anyway they will be formed somewhere around.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Context is still bearishMorning folks, So, unfortunately for BTC - it is traded 24/7, so while other markets were closed, BTC has taken all the mess from geopolitics. With recent collapse, it is logical to ask - where all those people who were taking about "safe haven", "gold replacement" etc... Now due geopolitical turmoil in weekend, our short-term bullish context has been destroyed, so H&S was not able to reach the target and has been erased. As a result, for now short-term context has turned bearish and we think that it is not time yet for taking new long position. On daily chart MACD is bearish and we've got bearish reversal swing last week. From this standpoint, current upside action might be just a retracement. To start thinking about new long entry we have to get bullish pattern, say reverse big H&S on 4H chart or any other. Daily trend has to turn bullish again. Now we have nothing of it. Thus, the situation is not ready yet for new purchasing. On 1H chart we need to watch how upside action will develop. Picture could improve significantly if BTC will return back to the top, but now it is still a retracement with predefined upside targets.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Plan works perfect so far, showing 76-77.3K targetMorning everybody, So, our H&S pattern starts perfect. The only thing that we've missed is the neckline top - we thought it should be around 71K but it has been formed around 73K, which is even better in perspective. So, 2nd stage of the plan is done as well - right arm stands in place. We also have bullish grabbers on daily chart. All this stuff, based on H&S suggests action at least to ~75.8-76K area, while daily expansions point on 77.3K. Invalidation point of this scenario is 67.5K right arm's lows. If BTC drops below it, our view will turn bearish based on H&S "Failure" pattern. But for now we have no reasons yet to consider bearish setup.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
The plan is changing... at least the 2nd halfMorning folks, So, on Thursday we've suggested "60-67-60" action, and there are no questions to the first part. Indeed rally was really nice. But, the 2nd part of action from 67K down to 60K was based on potential weekly bearish engulfing pattern, if you remember. But it has not been formed as you could see. Together with other bullish signs that it is too long to describe here, now we cancel the idea of action to 60K and keep bullish view. Particularly speaking, upside breakout could come with reverse H&S on top. Now market is still coming to neckline and target around 71K. But, if breakout still happens, we consider 77.30K as the next destination point...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
from-67K - to- 60K action is possibleMorning fellows, So our breakout setup is done well. What is looking intriguing now - BTC behaves quite different to gold, have you signed this? Recent performance, especially if we get good NFP tomorrow suggests that retracement might be a bit deeper. We consider 60-60.5K area as potential target (because we could get weekly bearish engulfing pattern by this week). But now BTC is overextended down on daily chart, so this action to 60.5K could start not know but after minor pullback, somewhere to ~ 66.5-67K area supposedly. So, how to better mark this idea as "bearish" or "bullish?" Let's mark as "bullish", because downside action if it starts, probably will start on next week.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Goldmine for breakout tradersMorning folks, So, it seems that "222" Sell last time was not a bad idea at all. Despite that BTC stands in rectangle we've got two nicely looking downside bounce. Now we have some nuances with the BTC performance, but to keep it simple it is mostly suitable for those who like to trade breakouts. If you do not want to wait a bit for clarity on daily chart, in what direction market still will follow, but want to trade today we could offer you few options. First, is, if you want to bet on upside breakout and take long position - try to do it as closer to the rectangle bottom as possible. For example - it is nice "222" Buy is forming and almost ready to go. The opposite is true for bearish position. Now we have no patterns, but they could appear later. Finally, for the breakout, if you do not care on direction. The simplest way to act is to use Stop Sell and Buy orders at once, placing them just outside of rectangle. When breakout happens, you just cancel the opposite order. That's all. I mark today's idea as "neutral", because it is volatility-based.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Control the riskMorning folks, So, our H&S is done well, and already has reached the minimal target. Now the major question whether it will go to 74.3$, a kind of "bonus" upside target. Maybe.. But, today we would think about protection and risk control, rather than about some bargain. On daily chart we've got bearish grabber that is taking the shape of '222" Sell here, on 1H chart. We're coming to PCE report and long Easter Holidays. BTC could go higher, but today we would focus on risk control instead. Think about some risk management of long position - booking totally or partially, stop tightening etc. Bears by the way, could think about short entry. Chances on success are low, but potential money risk is small as well. If you succeed, result will be 10K+ per coin. It worthy at least to think about it... Let's mark this report as "bearish"due described issues.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
2nd attempt is betterMorning folks, So, let's go back to our H&S pattern, which is a 2nd attempt to go long. You could see that it starts working. Right arm stands in place and now we could move stops to breakeven. Second is - we could estimate targets. First one is H&S AB=CD around 69.70K. If we get lucky, we could see 1.618 expansion to 74.3K. Finally, if you've missed entry but still would like to step it - on 1H chart we have local "222" Sell. Here you could watch for two nearest support levels. Just avoid buying if we get strong downside action. Drop under 64.50K Fib support also will be a bad sign, because it breaks the nature of reverse H&S pattern that should be bullish. And strong drop with erasing of the right shoulder definitely will be the sign of H&S failure. Keeping this simple rules in mind should let us to pass this journey without big shocks.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Nice bullish signalMorning folks, Although we were a bit sceptic last time about good entry chance, because we saw how BlackRock just buying out any, even minimal deep on the market. Still, market was able to reach 65K area that we've discussed on Thursday. 65K is also daily oversold. Since we have strong upside momentum, upside bounce should be at least 5/8, which is around 70K, but this is minimal target, it could move higher. On 1H chart we have great pattern on the back of this idea - reverse H&S. It is not totally completed yet, but shape is becoming clear. So, depending on what AB-CD pattern we will get, based on this pattern, we get corresponding upside target. For now it is around 71-72.5K We consider no shorts by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
Low chances for good entry piontMorning folks, So, BTC keeps it unstoppable rally, and is strongly overbought on weekly chart. But for now market totally ignores this. Yes, upward action is slowing, we have small tactical bearish grabbers on 4H chart, but it gives low chances on moderate retracement. BTC successfully holds above previous ATH, showing no significant retracement and no doubts - this is bullish sign. Besides it has no strong resistance levels above, right up to our 85-88K target. That's being said - common technical rules recommend to not buy and way for the pullback. But would you wait or not - you need to decide by yourself. Here we just acknowledge that we do not have attractive entry point. Only, if by some reason, market will show pullback to 65K or at least to 68K, it might be interesting. The same is for bearish positions - no reasons by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
Better to wait a bitMorning folks, So, on Monday we've sent relatively modest target - around 65.5K, it was completed. Now BTC stands at weekly overbought and strong upside continuation is hardly possible immediately. Still, intraday scenarios are also not perfect. At first glance, on 4H chart, with the grabbers aboard, we could count on tactic downside deep. But, on 1H chart (not shown here), price performance is not quite bearish. If we consider bullish position instead, we could take it only when grabbers will be erased, but this put entry level too close to the previous top that is upside target for now, because BTC is at overbought. Thus, both scenarios are not perfect and care higher risk than usual. That's why our conclusion is to wait...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Great Pump, but what's next?Morning folks, Well, rally looks great, but absolutely unnatural and has no relation to normal market dynamic. It is pumped externally. This is not a surprise when 80% of spot market and all transactions and depository operation stand in one hands. Bubble? Yes, but it is not totally ripen yet, need some time to grow more... Our setup has worked perfect whatever you've done - either use Stop "buy" order for breakout or just bought near the lows of our consolidation. Our next upside targets are 70K, i.e. previous top and 80-85K. Now price is at overbought and it makes sense to wait for some relief. We will be watching DiNapoli patterns, based on the thrust - either DRPO "Sell" or B&B Buy. It seems that any analysis of BTC market very soon will become useless, because it is not controlled by market natural force any more, it is concentrated and market goes with the direction that BlackRock& Co will choose.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Adv. on bearish sideMorning folks, It seems that market is tired a bit from previous ETF rally. Major drivers are worked out already, and market needs something new. Supposedly coming April halving and possible ETH ETF approvement in May are most probable ones. Right now price stands in tight consolidation, which is might be treated as a bullish sign. At the same time, this consolidation is forming at strong Monthly resistance area of 48.5-52.5K, so some downside reaction seems very probable. This could make any rally here very short term and unstable. And this keeps us aside from taking any long positions by far. On intraday charts it is few things that we could consider - bets on breakout of the range might be done by using Stop entry orders near the borders. If you still would like to buy, we have some shape of reverse H&S pattern on 1H chart, that theoretically you could try to use. But, this is very weak setup.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Contradictive patternsMorning folks, So, intraday H&S patterns that we've discussed last time has started very accurately as we've suggested. But, BTC was not able to break the top, forming minor W&R, grabbing stops around it. Thus, this H&S has failed. This is bearish moment. Dont' forget, that market stands at very unstable area of strong 52K monthly resistance. On daily chart we have two opposite patterns. First is DRPO "Sell", second is bullish grabber. With mentioned situation on intraday charts, it seems that DRPO has better chances. Anyway, if you're conservative - it would be better to stay aside. Still there some advanced ways of trading exist - we provide it in video on our website. It is too much typing to describe it here.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
51.5K seems vital for short termMorning folks, So, BTC hits our Yearly Pivot Resistance 1 level and in nearest 1-2 months, it will be really decisive time for next direction on the market. Meantime, while BTC is still coiling around, let's take a look at lower time frames. Context remains bullish, so we do not consider any shorts by far. We suggest that 51.5K area will be vital in nearest term. If BTC holds above it - it could start forming reverse H&S on top with upward continuation and start moving to our next 55.5K target. If it fails, then we could get Double Top here and deeper downside pullback first. Thus, if you want to buy - think about 51.5K area, it could let you to place tight stop.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Waiting for the pullbackMorning folks, So, upside target of 52.2$ is reached. Now price stands at strong resistance area, including monthly major 5/8 level, Yearly Pivot Resistance 1 and upside weekly XOP target. Additionally we see that daily butterfly has been completed and market is overbought here. Although we do not exclude some wobbling in 52-55K area, so 1.618 butterfly target also could be reached, in nearest time we will be watching for natural downside reaction on strong support area. Now we do not consider any new longs positions. For intraday short positions it seems too early as well, as market has not started yet any reaction on this level
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tactical pause is necessaryMorning folks, So, 47.2K target is also completed. The next one is 50.50-52K, which is a big monthly cluster, including upside weekly XOP target, our XOP here, from reverse H&S target that we're trading now (it stands around 50.50K), Yearly Pivot Resistance 1. But for now it seems market needs some tactical pause. Now major 5/8 monthly Fib resistance is hit, and price is overbought on daily chart. Thus, appearing of small 1H H&S pattern could trigger tactical natural pullback before market will proceed to the next target
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3
Up right now?Morning folks, So, today we take a look at daily chart finally. Last time we've discussed upside bounce that should become the right arm of H&S pattern on 1H chart. Indeed, upside bounce has happened, and it seems that it has become the arm of H&S, but there are few nuances... H&S on 1H chart stands too distorted and skewed to the upside. And we do not want to rely on it. Recent price performance also doesn't match to idea of bearish pattern. On daily chart we've got tweezer bottom and obvious pennant pattern under 3/8 resistance - two bullish signs. So, we do not exclude that upside action could continue. We keep our nearest target at the same 45K area. So, it seems that our reverse H&S pattern, that we're considering for last 2 weeks - might be in action already
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Some practical issuesMorning folks, This post should be considered as practical add-on to our major upside scenario. Now we consider reverse H&S pattern on 4H chart. Market has reshaped it a bit, so we haven't got desirable retracement yet (i.e. right arm is not formed yet). But, it could be soon. On 1H chart you could see potential downside H&S. BUt the problem is - the 4H arm should be (or could be) around 41.5K, while the target of 1H pattern suggests lower levels. At the same time, you could see that on 41.5K we have very strong support area - this is downside XOP (1.618 AB-CD target) and K-support area. That's why we consider this area as suitable for long entry. If even later market will form 1H HS& and keep going lower - at first touch we should get the bounce with high degree of probability. Because right arm here has to be formed as well. This makes attempt to go long here relatively safe and with ability to place very tight stop. Everything will be even better if BTC starts upward action right from here...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
2