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Some practical issuesMorning folks, This post should be considered as practical add-on to our major upside scenario. Now we consider reverse H&S pattern on 4H chart. Market has reshaped it a bit, so we haven't got desirable retracement yet (i.e. right arm is not formed yet). But, it could be soon. On 1H chart you could see potential downside H&S. BUt the problem is - the 4H arm should be (or could be) around 41.5K, while the target of 1H pattern suggests lower levels. At the same time, you could see that on 41.5K we have very strong support area - this is downside XOP (1.618 AB-CD target) and K-support area. That's why we consider this area as suitable for long entry. If even later market will form 1H HS& and keep going lower - at first touch we should get the bounce with high degree of probability. Because right arm here has to be formed as well. This makes attempt to go long here relatively safe and with ability to place very tight stop. Everything will be even better if BTC starts upward action right from here...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
2
First is done. Here is the 2nd oneMorning folks, So, our 3-Drive and H&S pattern that we've discussed have completed. But, as we consider 45K level as major target for this trading setup - we expect continuation. Meantime, market hits 42.6K target and 3/8 Fib resistance on daily chart. It needs some tactical pullback. We suggest that 41-41.2K support is the most probable area. Then, if everything remains the same, upside action should continue with larger scale H&S pattern on 4H chart. But, the pullback is our first step. I mark setup as bearish, but only because of expected pullback. In general we have bullish view in short-term.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Target is 45K Morning folks, So, BTC was not strong enough to form H&S and just collapsed lower. Now finally we get patterns that could become a starting point for pullback. Here is 4H 3-Drive Buy pattern that has minor reverse H&S on the bottom. We suggest that it is possible to consider long position because now it is accompanied with reasonable risk. We see 45K level as target. Stop should be placed under the lows of 3-Drive, but if it is too much to you - stick with reverse H&S on 1H chart. In this case stop could placed somewhere around 39K. This should be relatively safe trade, because market is oversold on daily chart as well...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
3
Detail of our major bearish patternMorning folks, This update is better to watch with the previous one, so you better understand what we're talking about... So, BTC has slipped a bit lower. This is not yet the action that we've discussed in our previous scenario. With this downside action now the H&S pattern on 4H chart starts looking even better. Today we consider upside background that is a part of our bigger bearish H&S on 4H chart. Since market is coiling around the neckline, chances stand high that the right shoulder of 44.25$ area could start forming. On 1H chart now we see completed downside butterfly. Price is forming "222" Buy as well, divergence has appeared as well. So, if our suggestion is correct, BTC could start forming the right arm of bigger pattern and start moving out from the neckline. Scalp traders could consider long position based on all this stuff. At least it cares very small potential risk, so, this is something to think about. We're mostly focused on big pattern. Potentially, we could get reverse H&S here, so, we should get another chance for scalp long position later. So, let's keep watching.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
4
Other things to think aboutMorning folks, So, there some some jokes on the market already that BTC is becoming a stable coin... Indeed volatility has dropped drastically. But this could easily explained. If nobody is buying right now but all selling offers are swallowed by ETF whales - where coin should move? For instance, only BlackRock as bought in a single session this week more than 11K BTC. This is 10 times more than mined per day (900 BTC). Think about - how technical analysis could be applied for market right now? We continue to point that appearing of ETF is part of a big plan to take government control over the crypto markets. After some time free BTC float will be locked on ETF accounts. Exchanges that trade cash BTC (not ETF shares) will start loosing their business as turnover of cash BTC will drop miserably.... For now, we have H&S pattern that we've discussed previously and keep watching over it. If ETFs will keep supporting market from further drop, we should get upside bounce. Thus we consider 45-45.2K area for potential short position. For now we do not see many things to do. No good bullish signals either for now.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Look at the picMorning folks, So, indeed market has shown upside action to 49K after our last update, but later has broken, as we said, vital area for the bulls. For now ETF approvement doesn't fit to expectations much. In general, BTC has dropped for ~8%. But, at the same time - let's do not overreact on this. Yes, drop is significant, but it doesn't break major upside tendency. If we recall that 48.5K is major monthly 5/8 Fib resistance, then, current drop looks absolutely reasonable. Still, it was rather fast and by our view this increases chances on 2-leg downside retracement. In fact, it could take H&S shape. Since BTC is oversold on daily chart now, we expect upside bounce somewhere to 45K area first. Then we will be watching for bearish signs around either to confirm, or not confirm our suggestion of H&S and downside AB=CD action.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
2
43K is vital for bullsMorning folks, So, our 47.35K target has been hit on fake ETF approvement ;) Anyway, right now the major question is about stability of demand. Ambitions and emotions have got a release after ETF approvement and we have to be sure that bulls have sufficient power to keep moving higher. Because technically market has no problems for upside action - no overbought, no strong resistance levels above - bulls have to prove its ambitions and that bets were not just on ETF approval. To do this price has to stay in tight consolidation above ~42.80-43K daily support area. That's why for now, we consider only long entry inside this consolidation. If price breaks down 43K - bearish setup will become possible again. Long term upside target stands around 50-52K.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
41K might be re-testedMorning folks, So, just we've completed with triumph our bullish setup on Monday - situation has changed drastically. Drivers of collapse is a separate topic for discussion. But it seems that market is very nervous now, not knowing in what direction to follow. This in turn tells, that ETF background as a driving power of the bulls is exhausted. Today we do not have any clear patterns. But taking in consideration few moments on daily chart, like failed upside breakout, Wash&Rinse all stops that have been placed around it and downside momentum, I would stay away from any long positions by far. Strong daily K-support was able to stop the tragedy. But momentum down is strong and we suggest that BTC still could re-test this level of ~41K area, before direction could change.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC keeps bullish contextHappy New Year to everybody! Hopefully you're feeling well after furious celebration ;) So, BTC keeps bullish context. Despite our recent idea with H&S has not been materialized, but BTC keeps vital condition for bullish context - it remains inside the triangle. Besides, now, we have another reverse H&S with absolutely the same potential entry area around 42-42.5K. Also bullish divergence is here... Currently bullish setup is not totally flawless, it has some tricky moments (we still have bearish grabber on daily) and yes, it depends on ETF news and approvement moment. At the same time, it doesn't mean that it is forbidden long entry. With some reasonable degree o care it is possible. But you pay for higher risk trying to get better entry point. Still, it is nothing bad with conservative approach either. Just to wait when upside continuation starts and try to enter on local pullback. This is also the strategy, why not...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
2
Bearish risks still exist. 42.5K to watchMorning folks, So, downside action has happened, even deeper than we thought. Bearish grabber on daily chart still exists and suggests potential drop below 40K area. Still, this is just the pattern and could fail as any other one. To bet against it or not - this choice is up to you, we just share with our thoughts on the suggest. First is, downside action on daily is a bit heavy. It is clear that market resists and traders are buying on deeps. Second - BTC stands in triangle shape on 4H chart which is also potentially bullish. Finally, on 1H chart upside recovery is relatively fast and is taking the shape of reverse H&S pattern. So 42.50-42.60K is most comfortable area for position taking and you do not need to place too far stop. Because if BTC keeps upward action - it should start right from here. If not - it is not make sense to place far stop, because drop anyway will be deep. So, the only decision that you have to make is whether you're ready to go against daily grabber. If not - then sit on the hands. If this risk is acceptable to you, then you could try carefully to buy some coins around...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
40.25K lows seem vitalMorning folks, So, BTC has failed immediate upside breakout, although it really has tried... Now it seems that market is not too happy with recent Fed decision and has not joined to common euphoria. This is understandable, because number of BTC rivals now are increasing. Still, we suggest that bullish context is not totally destroyed yet and mostly depends on 40.25K lows. BTC now is forming big triangle on 4H chart and we have "222" Buy inside of it. If lows holds, BTC could start moving back to top again. Especially if Dollar becomes weaker. Bears should consider the opposite scenario - downside breakout of the same lows. Either to use stop "Sell" order around it or to wait for breakout...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Bounce at least to 43KMorning folks, So, Thu plan as worked accurately - BTC has dropped precisely to 41K support area. Now it stands oversold on daily chart and near strong Fib support. Thus, we do not consider any shorts by far, but watching for scalp bullish positions instead, suggesting that upside bounce should be at least to 43K area (or even above the top if BTC wil form bullish daily grabber today). Right now it is not clear what particular pattern will be in foundation of upside bounce, but in similar cases, markets very often form "222" pattern. Let's see...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for the pulbackMorning folks, let's keep up with our BTC analysis. So, our Thu suggestion was correct once again - BTC has jumped, breaking 4H wedge pattern in opposite direction. Now we suggest you to think on two objects. First is - is it really ETF topic that pushing BTC higher? So, the gold is raising also because of ETF? Second is, despite how strong the BTC pace is, we hit monthly Agreement resistance - major AB=CD together with 50% resistance level. Theoretically we have monthly "222" Sell. This is not best combination to consider new long entry. That's why within few weeks probably we will be watching for market reaction, as it could give us better entry levels.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Upside challenge seems possibleMorning folks, Just to not bother you with a lot of details, we suggest that BTC could try to challenge the top in nearest time. Despite that we're getting classic wedge shape, which should be bearish, we think that this is more the sign od bears' weakness and BTC could try to break the top. So, we do not consider by far any short positions. If you would like to buy BTC we suggest two ways - either follow the butterfly that we have on 1H chart, or use Stop "buy" order near the top to step in during breakout. Or combine the both...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
30.6K seems vital for short-termMorning folks, So, spike up has happened as we've discussed last week, and formally, daily bullish dynamic pressure is done. But hardly it makes bulls happy. W&R suggests stop hunting action, and in general the bearish short-term signal. Of course, it doesn't mean the major reversal etc., but it could trigger deeper downside reaction. Besides, on 4H chart our butterfly 1.27 target is done and now BTC already shows 3/8 retracement reaction. Here we suggest to keep an eye on 36.6K Agreement support area by two reasons. First is, it is a good support, that could be used for long entry and very tight stop placement. Second is, it is good validity indicator. Normal bullish market should not break it down. If it happens, it would be better to wait with any long entry, as chances for stronger downside action will increase significantly.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC keeps bullish contextMorning everybody, On daily chart we have two bullish signs. First is, market is forming bullish dynamic pressure - MACD trend is bearish but price action is not and forming higher lows. Second, as we've mentioned last time we have DRPO "Sell" failure, suggesting some way of upward action. Besides, we suggest that recent Binance punishment will support BTC price, especially at the eve of ETF approvement. People start withdraw coins out from exchanges to wallets, cutting free flow. Shortly speaking, we do not consider any shorts by far, suggesting that some way of upside action could happen. We keep the same 36K lows as invalidation area for this short-term scenario.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
37.75-38K is vital for long termMorning folks, BTC shows some tiredness from constant anticipation of ETF approvement. Any news do not trigger the same action as before. Still, market keeps bullish context and we do not consider any short positions yet. At the same time, we think that 37.75-38K area will be vital for BTC next step. Breaking of 38K opens road to 42K target, while failure to break it could trigger more extended downside action. That's why, if you plan to take long position - take this in consideration. Either tight stops when market comes to 38K or use stop buy order above 38K or just wait what will happen. 38K is yearly pivot resistance 1. This is the edge between existing bearish long-term trend and potential new bullish long-term trend. If price remains under YPR1, it means that upside action is just a retracement within long-term downside tendency.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
36K is a vital levelMorning folks, So, the pullback, based on 3-Drive is done. Long-term upside target is 42K. But, now market stands on tricky background. It has to keep going higher to new top to confirm bullish context. Until it stands around the top - maybe nominal, but chances exist for downside deeper retracement. That's why, if you plan to go long - don't place too far stops and watch for 36K support area. Normal bullish market has to stay above it. If it breaks it - something is wrong with bullish context and deeper retracement is coming.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Wait is a better choice for nowMorning folks, So, 3-Drive "Sell" has reached potential reversal point. What do we have now? DXY shows bullish weekly grabber, suggesting return back to 107.5 top, yields are raising. On daily BTC we have bearish grabbers, suggesting downside action, and here - 3-Drive "Sell". This combination tells, that if even you want to buy BTC - it would be better to wait a bit for some pullback. Besides, some analysts, including JP Morgan suggest that ETF approvement mostly is priced - in already. Anyway, overall combination of the factors suggest that it would be better to wait a bit and not buy BTC right now. Decision on scalp short selling is up to you...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten