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26KMorning folks, We do not need to make drastic shifts to our trading plan as BTC is going accurate with it. The core is daily H&S pattern with 26K destination point. Next week was some risk around the top of right arm and it was seemed that BTC could break it, but it couldn't, and H&S starts to work. Now, market is coming to 27K neckline area. We do not consider any long positions. If everything will be OK - H&S major target of 26K should be reached. In more extended perspective, 25-26K has vital meaning. Downside breakout could open road to 12K and will be negative for bullish context. Conversely, ability to hold above it, will keep chances on 36-38K target intact
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3
"222" SellMorning folks, Today we need just 1H chart to make an update, because BTC shows humble reaction on Fed statement, at least compares to gold market. Despite minor bounce - the daily H&S is still valid and we could talk about its failure only if BTC returns back into 30-31K range, at least. For now - the only Fed's fruit here is "222" Sell pattern. If you believe that H&S will fail, you could consider long entry around 28.5-28.6K area. Alternatively, bears could use this "222" for downside continuation. Maybe NFP will bring more clarity tomorrow. In general, current Fed policy is "loose-loose" for BTC. Higher rates will destroy stock and BTC market, while rate cut with 5+% inflation level promise also nothing good in longer-term perspective, as inflation will raise more, especially on a background of record budget deficit, and I'm not talking about debt ceil saga.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
25.5K Part IIMorning folks, BTC accurately follows to our daily H&S scenario. Now it seems that the top of right arm is in place already. If you're looking for bearish position taking but missed to do this around 29.5K area, discussed last time - here you could watch for 3/8 retracement on 1H chart, somewhere to 28.9-29K area. The top around 29.5K also is an indicator of H&S validity. Action above it could mean that H&S is failing and BTC is ready for immediate upside continuation. Until it stands valid, we're going with our downside H&S scenario to 25-25.5K target
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
25.5KMorning folks, BTC very accurately follows to our H&S shape. So, the right arm's top that we've discussed on Monday is completed now. For the bears - this is the moment of decision making on entry. Additionally, H&S is great directional indicator. Its failure (which we think as less probable scenario), suggests immediate upside continuation and 31K level breakout. While its traditional performance should lead BTC back to 25.5K area at least - H&S classic target and strong daily K-support area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
26.5 - 28.5 - 24.5Morning folks, BTC accurately follows to our H&S plan. Our intraday target around 26.5-27K which is the neckline, is mostly done. Next step that we're watching is a forming of the right arm around 28-28.5K and then major extension to 24-25K area - strong daily support. Depending on your view you could choose corresponding positions. Intraday bulls could consider intraday bullish patterns(reverse H&S, butterflies etc) around 26-26.5K area with potential target around 28-28.5K, while bears should wait for this latter level for next short entry chance.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
26.5 is vital support for the bullsMorning folks, Once our 31K OP target has been hit - BTC starts to show tactical signs of weakness. It is vital for BTC to stay above 25.5-26.5K support area to keep major upside trend with 36-38K destination point. Downside breakout of 26K support level could significantly increase chances on downside acceleration. In very short-term, we consider first step of downside retracement to 28.3K support area, in a way of puny H&S on 1H chart. Once it will be completed - our focus will turn to next one, large 4H H&S pattern and 26K support area, which also should become a neckline for big pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Last step until the way to 35-38KMorning folks, So, this part of our plan is done - market hits 29.4-30K area. Let's say "thank you", JPow. Does it mean that price is already on the way to next 35.5-38K target/resistance area? I wouldn't say it yet. Just because around 30.5-31K we have resistance. And before take position for further upward action, we have to be sure that this is real upside breakout. Thus, we need to see that market breaks 31K and holds above it, not drop back below 28K. This should become a confirmation that upside breakout is real. Conversely if we will see spike to 31K and fast reversal - wait and do not buy.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
The same 29.4-30.9K in focusMorning folks, So, market stands quiet in recent 3 weeks and we have not many thinks to add to our previous view. In short-term perspective, we still think that here we should get some upside spike, supposedly to 29.4-31K at least. THus, we do not consider any short positions by far. Concerning longs one - we follow the same tactics of searching patterns inside the consolidation. Last week we already have made a deal with "222" Buy, now - the story could repeat and we could get another one with potential entry point around 27.5K. Let's see...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
29.4K must be touchedMorning folks, No big changes so far. We do not see yet the crash of bullish context. Since our major 29.4K target has not been completed yet - we could take position that could lead us there. Today we consider intraday 27.2K area as potential entry. Once major target will be hit - we need to see in what manner this will happen. If BTC will hold above 30K we could consider 35-38K as a next target. If instead, this will be just short-term spike with fast return and drop down - bearish reversal will have more chances to happen... But for now - 29.4-30K...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Uncomfortable place to buyMorning folks, So, Monday's trading plan is done more or less positive as BTC comes to upper border of consolidation. Now, we have a bit tricky situation. Bullish context is still valid here but price stands at weekly resistance area, forming daily bearish divergence and showing minor bearish wash&rinse, here, on 4H chart. So, it is not very comfortable to buy. We see two possible solutions for that. First is - repeat Monday trading plan, i.e. wait for pullback in bottom half of consolidation and see what will happen, look for buying chances, (say, if "222" Buy will be formed). Second - use Stop "Buy" order above W&R top. In this case you automatically step in once BTC starts breaking consolidation upside. Use not too extended upside target - 29.20-30K as max.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
29K resistance comes in play Morning folks, So, market still stands in the same place where we've left it last time, LOL. Deeper downside pullback to ~25.5K area that we have discussed has not happened and market is coiling above nearest 3/8 support area. This could be treated as short-term bullish sign. Besides, last session we've got bullish grabber on daily chart. Here we also see signs of bullish dynamic pressure, where MACD is down, while price action is not. Put it together, we suggest minor upside continuation, somewhere to 29.2-29.3K area, because upside H&S target has to be done. Once this will happen - the strong weekly/monthly resistance of 28-29K will come in play. So, currently we do not consider taking any long term bullish positions. Only short-term, with mentioned target.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
25-25.5K for long entryMorning folks, We still doubt on upside BTC perspectives in long term, suggesting 35K as maximum upside potential. The common sense tells that Fed has started the banking crisis not to make crypto investors happy. They will grab all cash back, as they need it for Bond market and budget deficit close. Still, in short-term we're going with our H&S pattern and keep the same target of 29.3K. Since market is overbought now, we consider minor pullback, hopefully to 25-25.5K to consider long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
23.70K support should be strong enough Morning folks, Running into "alternative" assets is continuing. Personally, I have big doubts on bullish perspectives of BTC, just because Fed has started this ciris not to make BTC holders happy. My suggestion that very soon party will be over and we hear screams "let me out". But, not now probably. Market starts new big journey with weekly/daily H&S pattern with potential target around 29.35K area. Now it is challenging the neckline, but is at overbought and needs some time to abandon it. If market is really bullish, 23.70K support on 1H chart should be strong enough to hold market. Too deep pullback, especially back to 20-21K area of right shoulder's bottom could be the sign of coming failure. So, if you intend to buy - do not place too far stops. Either to wait for deeper retracement, if you suggest it happens, or place stops just under the strong support area where you intend to buy.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Technical cash redistributionMorning folks, BTC has bounced up from predefined area that we've discussed on Friday, but under external circumstances (you know what they are) jumped above our 21.5K target. Right now we do not see any fundamental shifts in BTC background. Current banking crisis promises nothing good to crypto in longer term. We treat US Treasury "saving fund" creation as a new way of QE, which means higher inflation in mid-term and more pressure on non-interest bearing assets. Don't be tempted by recent rally on BTC, because most probable - this is just cash redistribution out from public deposits to crypto market, which should have temporal effect. Bulls theoretically could consider position taking based on current upside impulse, using minor retracement of recent rally up. While bears should sit on the hands for 1-2 sessions at least and see what will happen. Particular speaking - keep an eye on daily bearish grabber. If it will be confirmed today, downside reversal could happen much sooner.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Pause @ 19.20-19.50Morning folks, So, everything goes with the plan - market was not even needed to form H&S pattern on intraday charts, that we've previously considered. As crypto-industry has got the 2nd hit after FTX from SilverGate bank, BTC just collapsed, significantly lower than our intraday target of 21K. Now we have to increase the time frame and watch on daily chart directly. Here we see nearest target of 19.2-19.5K, that could provide short-term support and even become a reason for the bounce up to 21-21.5K area (if NFP will be not too strong). But, according to our fundamental view, we do not see reason for major trend reversal on BTC market. BTC performance around 17.5-19K area is vital for next action. Either it will be to 32K or down to our major monthly target of 12.23K. Let's see...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Same target - 21.5KMorning folks, BTC was able to complete upside XOP retracement target, but overall action is choppy and slow, which suggests retracement nature. That's why we keep the same trading plan and consider short position with target around 21.5K area. Sudden upside breakout of 24.25K resistance means that BTC goes to 26K target and is forming upside 3-Drive "Sell" instead of H&S that we 're watching now. It doesn't change our mid term view of downside reversal in general but changes the price shape and the pattern that will be put on background of this reversal.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Watching for 22K areaMorning folks, We're keep going with our H&S pattern. Since market was not able to form upside butterfly pattern, our H&S turns to 1.27 ratio instead of common 1.618. Now we're watching price action back to the neckline around 22K. There are few moments to watch. Price now stands at strong resistance area around 23.5K area. Normally it is enough to keep bearish market moving down. If, somehow, BTC will keep upside action, H&S might not be formed. And we could get upside 3-Drive "Sell" instead with 26.3K top. Second is, we have few trading setups. Now intraday traders could consider short entry with 22K target. Once neckline will be reached - another chance for scalp long entry could be formed. If you trade on higher time frames - it is nothing to do by far. Wait when H&S shape will be completed and consider top of right arm or 3-Drive "Sell" pattern for short entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Still watching for reversalMorning folks, As we've said previously - we're sceptic on current upside rally and still watching for reversal. Since BTC is still coiling around the top, we see rising bearish pressure, based on price shape performance. Our previous trading plan is still valid, as BTC still keeps theoretical chances to form upside butterfly. But, in fact, we don't care what reversal shape will be. We intend to use either this butterfly for short position taking or larger H&S pattern. Our nearest downside target stands around 20K. If reversal starts from 26.20-26.40 - all the better.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Potential downside reversal 26-26.4KMorning folks, Last time we've discussed big 4H H&S pattern, with potential Head top around 26K. This week is supposed to be tough - Biden speech, Putin speech, PCE, Fed Minutes, multiple PMI's etc etc. Our fundamental analysis tells to not believe in "easing of regulation". In reality, regulation is becoming tougher, as world is coming to introducing of CBDC. Now not only crypto companies start getting business problems but related banks, persons, funds involved in this business. Second is - we have clear signals that Institutional investors are leaving stock market gradually and replaced by households with 1.5Bln/week pace approximately. Fed will not stop tightening, and we treat current upside action as temporal, until slogan "Fed will ease" is working. For now, we consider downside reversal in 26-26.4K area with downside target around 20K. This 1H butterfly could become the one that will trigger it.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
Potential downside reversalMorning folks, Once we've wondered what could push BTC to 25K area - answer has come suddenly. Without intruding of external factor - overall background as technical as fundamental has not suggested and still doesn't suggest upside rally. So we treat this performance as not reliable. With strong daily resistance around 26-27K area and current overbought on daily chart, we consider potential downside reversal now, starting from 26K area and consider no long positions.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten