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Still watching for 25KMorning folks, So, it seems that markets have heard only "disinflation" word from JP and missed everything else. We think that recent Fed comments were hawkish enough and euphoria will exhaust soon, when mispricing becomes obvious. Meantime nothing has changed in our mid term view - we're watching for reverse H&S on weekly chart and upside butterfly on daily chart with 25K destination point. Currently we do not consider long positions on daily and above time frames. Still, on intraday charts it is possible to consider. For example, on 1H chart we have another butterfly that leads to the same target. If NFP brings no negative effect, market could keep going to it. We have no resistance levels until this target. Thus, minor bounce to 22.25-22.30K area could be used to think about long position. Now short positions by far as well
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
23.3-23.5 is a control levelMorning everybody, BTC now has no technical barriers for upward action to our major 25-25.5K destination point. Its not at overbought and has no Fib resistance levels ahead. Still, we have tough week with multi central banks decision, NFP and other stuff. And some external factor intruding could hurt bullish tendency. In nearest term, we think we have to keep an eye on 23.3-23.5K area. BTC should not break it down, if upside context is valid. Scalp traders could consider long entry around it and 5/8 level of 22.5K. But for daily traders I would wait for major pullback out from 25 K resistance but not consider long entry right now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Better to sit on the handsMorning everybody, So, overall tendency and sentiment is positive on BTC market (although we're skeptic on major reversal idea due to fundamental reasons). Technically market should not have any big problems to reach 25.5K area - next solid resistance. But, there few moments that make it tricky. First is, as EUR as Gold now stand at strong resistance areas. EUR is at 1.0942 weekly 50% Fib level, while gold is at 1950 monthly overbought. Second - today we get GDP and PCE numbers. If they will be poor, investors will be scared of recession that will trigger demand for US Dollar, at least in short term. That's why, by these reasons, and also because here, on 4H chart we also have some signs of weakness, we prefer to wait for some pullback.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Pullback to 19-19.45K area Morning folks, So, BTC rally has been triggered by FTX news, that they have recovered $5Bln for clients and later was supported by common euphoria around CPI numbers. In our weekly FX report we've explained why it is temporal and soon everything returns back to its own. But, market likes to follow wishful thinking. Anyway, we have bullish context. Last time we've agreed to watch for 19.1K area resistance, were waiting for some response. It has not happened, and this makes us to switch to next, XOP target that market has hit recently. Now price stands at 1.618 AB-CD extension, at overbought and near 21.6K Fib resistance. Definitely it is not the moment for position taking and we need to wait for pullback. Now we consider 19-19.45K levels, as most probable destination of retracement. Still, we also do not exclude possible reverse H&S pattern. In this case pullback could reach 18.3-18.5K level. For the bears it is nothing to do by far, unless you're trading on intraday charts.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
19.2-19.6 is next beacon for the bearsMorning guys, Last time we've postponed bearish position taking as market strongly has passed through 1704-17080 resistance area and we've agree to watch for next upside target around 17.6K. Additionally we've said, that with stronger upside performance we could have to increase the scale and take a look at larger AB-CD pattern on daily chart. Now the time has come. As FTX was able to recover 5 Bln in cash, market lifts in spirits. Now we think that bears should keep hands in pockets and bulls get chances to see BTC around 19.2-19.6 K level. This level is rather strong. Additionally we get "222" Sell pattern here. Long term bearish context is still valid. If you intend to take long position - you could consider 17.6 and 17.8K intraday support levels (not showing here), but be aware of today's CPI report. Besides, you have to control upside breakout of 18.4 local top (B point) here. Downside reversal and erasing of recent rally should keep you aside from taking the long position. Downside reversal is not cancelled, it just postpones, giving market to show larger scale pullback.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Postpone bearish scenario until 17.6KMorning folks, As you could see BTC has reached the level that we've discussed last week - 17040-17080 resistance, and did it relatively easy. Since we consider upside continuation on other markets as well - EUR, Gold, on BTC we also postpone bearish scenario and now do not consider entry. Price stands above the K-resistance area and above OP target that we've discussed last time. At the same time, the bearish context is not broken and around 17.6K we could get the same "222" Sell. 17.6K is a next Agreement resistance area - 5/8 major Fib level and upside XOP (1.618) AB-CD target. Bulls probably could consider long entry on minor pullback. The retracement right now should not be deep. Otherwise, it could mean that BTC still reacts on 17.1K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
The core still stands the sameMorning folks, Just minor update here, as picture mostly stands the same as on Monday. Last time we said that if BTC will be lucky enough and could show upside AB-CD pattern - it might be good combination for short entry. Upside AB-CD target perfectly agrees with strong 17040-17080 resistance area and also we get "222" Sell in this case. BTC despite all the weakness slowly but stubbornly is creeping higher. So, if ADP or NFP will not intrude into process, we intend to consider short entry around 17-17.10K area. We do not consider any longs by far
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
17040-17080 as a best caseMorning everybody, So, we could see across the board that markets are going against the dollar, at least in short-term. While Dollar Index shows signs of weakness. We do not suggest that this lasts for too long, but still, this action is not over yet, and our analysis as of EUR as of Gold market also suggests further upside continuation. Meantime, BTC has no participation with this move. It shows how weak and heavy it is. That's why we're skeptic a bit concerning its performance and suggest that forming of upside AB-CD pattern with the target that agrees with 17040-17080 Confluence resistance area will be the best case. Besides, if it happens, we get "222" Sell around strong support and could consider it for short entry. Our mid/long term view on BTC remains bearish. On 4th of January we get FOMC minutes publication that could bring some disclosure as J.Powell was relatively hawkish on his recent speech.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC 17050-17080 Morning everybody and Merry Christmas, So, holidays intrude a bit to BTC performance as well, delaying pattern's appearing that we've discussed last time. When activity returns, BTC could keep going to 17.35-17.4K target and area of the right arm's top of our 4H H&S pattern. But, at the same time, we think that bulls have to worry about 17045-17080 area, which is a strong resistance of Fib levels K-area and COP (0.618 extension) target. Potentially BTC could turn down earlier. Besides, if it happens, we will get daily bearish grabber pattern that suggests even deeper action.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
17.40-17.5KMorning folks, Everything were going with our trading plan, but unexpected collapse on Japanese Bonds market and BoJ rate action to 0.5% has changed normal price behavior. Still, we treat it as temporal intruding, and soon effect of this event should fade. Thus, current action we treat as a chance to Sell at better price. Particularly speaking, 17.40-17.50K area seems attractive, if BTC completes upside AB-CD and we get "222" Sell" pattern. By the way, this also will form the top of H&S right arm, that we've discussed last time. Despite our view, we do not intend to take the long position, although it is not forbidden. Our primary target is to get good short entry point.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
17.15-17.25K for short entryMorning folks, So, downside action was even sharper than we thought, BTC collapsed without any H&S shape. Now it stands at local support area. We do not consider any long positions by far. For short entry 17.15-17.25 K-resistance area (and former trend line) looks interesting. Alternatively, if, still, it will be the H&S of a bit larger scale, BTC could climb to 17.40-17.45K to form the right arm, but it doesn't break the context. So, whatever scenario you will choose and if you want to sell - it would be better to place initial stop above 17.5K for some case, or even slightly higher...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
17.9K seems interesting for short entryGood morning, So, the bullish "Wild card" discussed last time has worked and BTC has completed 17.8-18.2K targets that we've discussed. Does it change something? No. Overall context remains bearish. Recent Fed statement, although has matched to expectations but still was slightly hawkish as just two members voted for the terminal rate below 5%. Market now stands at solid resistance area and we do not see any attractive decisions for bulls by far. Bears have two options, either try to go with this minor H&S pattern on 1H chart, and take position around Fib levels with stop above the high. Or - watch for the same H&S pattern but of larger scale on 4H chart. If ECB fails to provide hawkish statement today EUR turns down sharp and major downside action could start across the board, like on Gold market right now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
Bullish wild card Morning folks, Well, technical picture, no doubts, stands bearish. We've warned you about it within recent few weeks, and since the beginning of 2022 in a scale of monthly and weekly time frames. Now, if we wouldn't have CPI and Fed I would call for short entry. But, due coming important data we need to wait and get more confirmation. At the same time, CPI and Fed could provide the "wild card" if CPI will be weak and Fed will be dovish. In this case all markets across the board could show short-term action, and it could be more or less strong. That's why we show you all scenarios that potentially you could follow, depending on your view. First is a bullish "wild card' Scenario. You could consider this butterfly with placing stop just under its lows. Target might be either 17.7, or even XOP target around 18.2K. Features of this trade are - low chances on success, but low potential loss and huge reward if "wild card" will be given. Second is bears - you need to keep an eye on 16.5-16.6K support and its downside break. Once it will happen, it is possible to consider short entry. Theoretically you could use Stop "Sell" entry order somewhere under 16.5K. Finally, you could combine both scenarios.... if you brave enough ;)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
8
16.5-16.6K area is vitalMorning folks, BTC looks weak. Maybe coming PPI numbers tomorrow and CPI + Fed on Tue could support market in short-term, but data release can't change the fundamental background that is vitally hurt by FTX tragedy. Confidence in crypto market is lost now. Speaking about our technical setup - market has failed to stay above 17060 level that was crucial for the bulls, we've discussed it last time. Now we see signs of weakness and think that there are few chances on upside continuation. In fact, if 16.5-16.6K level will be broken - price starts action back to 15.5K lows first and even lower in longer perspective. So, if you would like to take the short position - watch for downside breakout of this level. We do not see good context for long entry now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
17.6-17.7 K seems the ceil nowMorning folks, So, let's keep going with our reverse H&S and its targets. As we've said, the first one was hit last week. Once OP is done, BTC has formed minor triangle consolidation which is broken up now. Next H&S target is XOP around 18.15K. But the problem is 17.5-17.7K strong resistance area, that includes Fib level and previous daily lows. As you know we're skeptic on any upside action on BTC and have not taken longs since the beginning of 2022. And we're not going to do it now, although it could climb a bit more. Mostly we're considering 17.6-18.15K area as potential for selling. Before major reversal happens, all markets could climb a bit higher - EUR (to 1.0595-1.0610), Gold (to ~1825) but everywhere, the background for reversal is growing. So the same on BTC. If you still would like to buy - you could consider 17.15K Fib support and keep an eye on 16.95K area - market should not break it down. If it will - the bullish party probably is over.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
18-18.2KMorning folks, So, our 1H H&S pattern that we've discussed last time is started well. In fact, as all other markets, BTC has got the same boost from J. Powell. Since this is external factor, hardly it will last too long. But positive NFP numbers should let BTC to complete 18-18.2K extended AB-CD target. Once this will be completed, BTC hits strong daily resistance area, that hardly will be broken as overall sentiment remains negative here. We sure that markets wrongly understand Fed comments, accepting what they want to hear but ignoring all the other information. Our suggest that Fed slows the pace of rate hike because it is frightened with possible disaster consequences but not because inflation is defeated and the US economy is returning back to growth. Absolutely not, but particularly in this way markets understand the recent comments. That's being said, we suggest that BTC could climb slightly higher, but hardly it will break 18-18.5 resistance area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
15.95-15.97KMorning folks, Last time we've discussed this H&S pattern, it was just on a starting stage. Now it is almost completed. You know our position, we're skeptic on any bullish performance as there are now fundamental background for it. And we mostly are watching for this H&S failure. But... those who have bullish view, could consider 15.95-15.97 support area, where the lows of right arm are likely to be formed. This is Agreement of downside 1.618 AB-CD pattern and major 5/8 support. This area doesn't guarantee you success, but definitely it gives you minimal potential loss as you could hide your stop very close. Bears should watch for downside breakout of this area. And, somewhere around 15.55-15.6K it is possible to consider using of Stop "Sell" entry orders.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Skeptic on bullish potentialMorning folks, BTC is taking pause and delays downside action to 14.8 and 13K target due to external factors. Mostly due to short-term dollar weakness that we suggest should last until the end of November. We keep valid mentioned targets and think that they will be completed, but a bit later than we initially thought. We're skeptic on any bullish performance on BTC and do not intend to take the long position. If BTC appears to be strong enough, it could try to complete this reversed H&S pattern with ~17.5-17.8K target. So, the choice is up to you whether to trade it or not. We intend to use it for short entry at better price, if it still will reach the target.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
16-16.1K is a vital areaMorning folks, BTC performance looks weak, price is forming triangle consolidation after solid drop, which has more chances on downside continuation. Last time we have considered long entry on a pullback, and in general setup has worked nice. If you still keep longs - move stops to breakeven. If you do not have longs - do not take it by far. BTC could show minor upward action, and maybe re-test 17K area, but we're skeptic of extended bullish performance. Usually upward trend looks different. For the bears - watch for 16-16.1K support area. Downside breakout will be the vital point of short-term tendency turn into bearish and puts odds in favor of downside triangle breakout.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten