SubPrime mortgages caused the last recession (07-08 financial crisis). Much of it was a self-feeding cause and effect somewhat led by a 5 year rapidly increasing cost of Housing (especially new homes). 45% rate of change over 5 years; 227k up to 329k. Interest rates at the time were considered fair, and decreased from 7.25% to 6.25% during the 5 year run up. ...
INVESTMENT CONTEXT U.S. stocks dropped sharply on growing fears of recession. S&P 500 dropped 3.27% on June 16, recording its steepest weekly decline (more than 6%) since March 2020 To calm the fears of a new debt crisis in EU, the ECB is reportedly structuring a specific bond-buying program specifically aimed at supporting its most indebted economies ...
Homies and the like are due for a correction of extraordinary measures. Count on it. Plan for it. Move the hell out of the way of it. Or Don't. Housing won't hold on much longer prior to the downdraft. It rolled over in Mid April but did not show until May.
OMBIX isn't here to show price level similar to 2008 recession, but OWNS shows enough for low income households. They are always the first in foreclosure.
- 30y mortgage interest rate breaking a 40yo trend. - MBB down while being used by big players as collateral. - DXY breaking a 40yo trend (not in the chart) can cause bond defaults around the world. - Fed has only started raising rates. * If MBB keeps going down, might see some marge call and flash crashes in the market. * If MORTGAGE30 keeps going up, will...
The monthly chart for US 30-year mortgage rates is exploding higher at a rate not seen since the 1970s. This chart shows that monthly rates are following the 3rd standard deviation higher, which is an extremely rare rate of increase. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is shown at the bottom of this chart. The CCI is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis...
The attached chart shows 40 years of declining 10 year rates. As we all know, that rate is the basis for mortgage rates and just about everything else. During that half cycle the housing market boomed, the stock market boomed and generally speaking, corporations and individuals prospered. But that trend has ended. Thursday I would have said that rates would either...
Top section is average 30-year fixed mortgage rates minus US 30Y treasury, and the bottom is them separated. Average US mortgage rates (blue) started to move ahead of treasury rate and expect 30Y treasury to move above 3% this year
Historically in America the interest rate for a 30 year fixed has been in a multi-decade down trend. As of January 2021 the rate for a 30 year fixed dropped to a historical low of around 2.65% and has since reversed in trend. This year we can potentially see rates continue to rise up to 3.75% as we're in secondary uptrend on the line chart. Currently we're at...
UWMC is putting in an inverse head and shoulders. Looking at a price target of 7.75-8.50 on the run.
Lots of volatility for the next eight months on the US 10 year treasury. Overall rates are moving up, but a couple dip opportunities to lock in your borrowers rates, not a financial advisor, just my thoughts.
*valuation matters Peak Everything is c/w Reddit Poggers #holdforbroke
Cup and handles typically take 1-4 weeks to play out. 14% of the float is shorted but RKT has less than 1 days to cover. Making RKT a pretty weak short squeeze opportunity IMO . But I do like the value for RKT and the chart set up, I worry about what a rising rates environment would do to their business (higher irates less people looking for homes)
UWMC weekly right now hitting the middle band around the $8.60 range When we advance passed that we should move to about the $10.20 range before more resistance is hit with the upper wicks on previous candles. After that it could go back to all time highs. Let’s see how this one plays out in the coming days and weeks.
Speculative Idea for MBB (Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF): - Why is there a speculative housing bubble in the middle of a crisis? - "A major catalyst of the general financial crisis of 2008 was the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007, when a rising wave of defaults on home mortgages sent the value of mortgage backed securities plunging." - "They're in trouble right...
There has been a lot of drama lately in the SPAC market ( SPACK ATACK) as most of them have lost significantly. However IMO this could be a long term profitable holding. Here are the good news : We see higher lows and the bottom has been set. Macd has turned bullish on March 2nd and remained there. If Macd will cross above zero, bullish trend is confirmed. We...
Rocket: Stage 6 launch, the 6th go at it here. Not quite ready yet, wait for some consolidation and be patient! Let the trade come to you. RSI needs to begin to heat up before I enter the Rocket launch. Stocks: A good risk reward would be entering in the "area of value" along the trendline and set stops below support (draw your own or auto shown on TRND bot...