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US 10 year yield forecast. Heading to 0?This is an update to previous ideas charted at New Years 2019. The 10 year yield has been following the path of lower yields in a lock step fashion, however the pace of declining yields is concerning. The 3 day looks like Niagara Falls Where do we go from here? Currently, the 10 yr yield is in the middle of the 1 (1.32%) and .786 (1.734%) retrenchment lines with a biased towards heading to 1.32. Two possibilities. 1) Yield punches right through 1.32% and set set new lows. 2) More likely in my view: "China/Trade" news comes along just in time to see yields reach or even briefly penetrate 1.32%, forming a triple bottom reversal, before reversing and heading back up towards 1.73% From here, yields could see a rejection from 1.32% and begin heading back towards 1.734%. RSI is oversold, also suggesting a reversal could come soon. However, said reversal will be fleeting. Sometime by or before reaching 1.734% I would expect yields to run out of steam and resume their decline before testing 1.32% and ultimately breaking lower. There is no such this as a quadruple bottom/top so in this scenario, the yield will crash below 1.32% and 0% becomes a very real possibility in the next 12 months. How does this tie into mortgage rates? The 10 year is a good general barometer for interest rates but Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), while improving (rates dropping) the rate of improvement has been slower than what we would expect given the halving of treasury yield in just 9 short months.
TVC:US10YShort
by jdharward
NYMT BUY, safe high yield dividend stockWe chose this REIT as it has low P/E ratio 9.31 and price is flat however it is good to time entry. Great opportunity to buy this stock right now as RSI hits oversold territory. Since 2017 this stock is trading between 6.8 USD - 5.45 USD. We recommend you to buy this stock as it has dividend yield 13.47% per year and current price is appropriate for the first entry. We can clearly see how the stock fluctuactes between quarters and falling after dividend pay out. We recommend second entry in the mid of October and selling after Q4 dividend or holding it.
NASDAQ:NYMTLong
by itshimon
US 10 YR - Lower yields to come in 2019 and beyondLooks like loan officers will be selling 2 and 3 percent fixed mortgages before long. ;) This is an update to my previous idea: If you're a fan of Fibonacci, then you're already well aware of the significance of the 1.618 and .618 lines. If you're not. Here's a super simple version. .618 retrace is the most likely level to see a "bounce" if the overall trend is higher. However, If .618 fails to hold, it's bearish and the next level of support is .786 followed by 1.0 representing a full retrace with new lower lows possible. So, if the 10 year yield is to "bounce" and start heading higher, it basically has to do it here and now... But that's probably not going to happen this time. Globally, central banks of the world are already loosening. China and Europe leading the way. The US economy is clearly showing signs of slowing. Tariffs, combined with record rain have devastated the Midwest farming region. (Expect higher food prices in 2020). A rising dollar at a time where exports are desired more than ever, etc. Ultimately, i expect the 10 yr yield to test the previous low of 1.32 we saw following the passage of Brexit. And we could get there quick. Next 4-6 months or "before 2020" if that's easier.
TVC:US10YShort
by jdharward
Mortgage Rates : Refinancing Now is Easy Money. Especially if you just closed on a mortgage in October or November of 2018, you should call a Mortgage Lender now to compare rates. You may be shocked to learn how much you could save in interest over the life of the loan. For example, 0.5% lower rate x $300K loan balance is approximately $1,500 annually. Think about how long you may have your mortgage and the impact becomes powerfully clear. You would be wise to contact a low closing cost lender when comparing rates to find out how much else you can save in closing costs. Best of all, find out which lender has the lowest costs and the lowest rates - that is the lender that will offer the most savings - and they do exist. This may be the easiest money you will ever make with just a few phone calls. In Allen County Indiana and surrounding IN counties, call me for a quote at 260-442-6877. NMLS#1181098 The chart shows a 38% Fibonacci retracement from the October and November recent highs as well as a break of the uptrend line from the July 2016 lows. While it is possible that the rates may go even lower, it may not happen for a while if at all. So, the safe move IMO is to refinance now to lock in the lower cost of money, then keep an eye on it so that you can do it again if it happens to go lower. Low closing costs make this strategy a no-brainer.
TVC:US10Y
by HoosierHODL
2
Interest rates to rise and top out a year from now?Looking at the 10yr treasury as a gauge for the overall rate environment and the revised GDP data, I'm predicting the US will see rates rise for roughly the next year before coming to a peak around 3.75% on the 10yr before beginning a new wave lower, just in time for the coming recession in the summer of 2019. Expect to see 30 year fixed US Mortgage rates above 5% for 2019 with a peak level of 5.5% to 6%. Central bank action could delay peak yields to the summer of 2020, ahead of US Presidential election. History predicts a recession occurring within 18 months (or less) of short + long term yields inverting. I expect we'll see this inversion of the yield curve occur in December 2018, following what will be the Fed's 4th rate hike of the year. This next recession will be a real doozy, likely putting 2008 to shame with the Fed likely responding with (what else?) QE on steroids, sending rates down to (or below) the lows witnessed in June 2016 following "Brexit".
TVC:US10Y
by jdharward
10 Year Bond & Mortgage Rates to Decline for Several Years?Using Cycle Analysis we can see multiple Intermediate Cycle Lows (ICL) of about 4 to 5 years in duration with the next one due in the second half of 2020. The next event that will signal the direction of rates is if the 10 YR Bond breaks the upward cycle trend line from the last ICL. This could occur two ways: the bond moves sideways and breaks the trendline in the next several months, or a sharp decrease pierces the trend line. Either way, this signals a failed daily cycle and the move into the next ICL has begun. The final destination could be either at 2.00 which would be equal to the left shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern, or even lower if the pattern forms a triple bottom.
TVC:US10YShort
by HoosierHODL
ARE WE HEADING TO ECONOMIC CRISIS?I don't particularly enjoy breaking the bad news but we are at record low levels for insured unemployment which is kind of scary for cycle followers. What we have seen for the last 50 years, a dip in unemployment usually followed by an economic downturn and we see a sudden jump on unemployment numbers. There are many underlying factors to this, which I will not mention here - but fundamentally it is because people start to become too loose and take their current situation for granted and start to overspent which is also encouraged by the media, government & banks! What shall we do? Assume it will happen and start planning ahead! and KEEP IT REAL!
FRED:CCSA
by Keep-it-Real
1
To Lock a Mortgage Rate or Not in The Short TermThe 10 YR Treasury Note Yield appears to have met strong resistance near the 3.0 mark and is starting to roll over on the weekly charts. Notice the RSI above 70 and starting to hook downward. Every other time the RSI rolled over at or above 70 for the last decade, the trend was down shortly afterwards. The next likely support is at the 2.5 area, which by then the rates should have come down by at least 1/8th percent on average across the different mortgage products. Do your own due diligence. This is not investment advice, but is only my observations and opinions.
TVC:TNXShort
by HoosierHODL
10 Year Treasury rates to break resistance or one more dip firstThe 10 year appears to want to either break above the resistance or take on more small trip down to the e wave on this a,b,c,d,e triangle. If it hits the lower triangle boundary and then bounces, then probability is greater that it will then break the upper resistance. So if you are looking to lock a rate, or float watch both triangle boundaries to see what happens. If it breaks lower boundary, then rates could drop so you can float if the rate drifts down into the lower boundary as long as it does not break the upper boundary first. Not intended as investment advice. This is an opinion only. Make of it what you will after doing your own analysis first.
TVC:TNX
by HoosierHODL
1
Short article on USDCADUSDCAD, 1 Hour. Elliott Wave - suggests corrective waves (we're basically at the end of the B leg at the time I'm writing this), it might form an advanced pattern to go short. But nothing is complete yet, I'll update this topic when I see changes in the market. News - RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) as well as other banks changed their mortgage rate (they actually increased it) and investors might not like this, causing a small devaluation of the canadian dollar. According to these news, the pair would do a upward move. USDollar - We can also see that the US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) is going up and almost touched a 14-year old high today (November 16th). So theorically, the value of the USD is increasing, and the value of the CAD is decreasing a little bit. I might go for a short-term LONG position, from B to a little bit higher than A, than take profit (SL just below 5). But to be honest, with the USD going up and CAD going down, I think the currency rate won't be so good for Canadians. (USD/CAD going up on a long-term).
by bbatrading
10-Yr Treasury Note, Follows Major Market MovementsSomething I noticed today while look at the 10-yr bond in general (reflecting loan rates). If you didn't already know, the price of the 10-yr bond directly affect any and all loan rates available. Mostly of course affecting housing loans. That's another point aside, but it does look like the price of a mortgage will be expensive over the summer. Anyway, what I also uncovered while looking at this is how well the peaks in the 10-yr bond correlate to the major market changes for the US. Take a look at this Wiki link for time frame references - en.wikipedia.org Most every major direction change (and peak) is associated with a market event since the 1980s to today. I have highlighted those peaks on both price and RSI with vertical lines and bubbles respectively. It's also worth noting that the burst before the 2008-2009 housing bubble crash was preceded by a rising wedge...which finished out its pattern as you would have expected. (spoiler: rising wedges end in price trend correction - downward price movement). Looking forward to the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, we have another peak. This one is not very close to the price trend line BUT shows an obvious peak in the RSI chart. Judging from previous events like this, I assume the market will not react graciously? Do I know? Of course not. It's just a guess. More important than that is the new pattern being formed (Symmetrical Triangle) from the 2011 to 2016-17 time frame. This could be a continuation pattern OR a reversal pattern (sym triangle vs. pennant). Can't be sure until we see the pattern finish itself out to the end, however, I can take a pretty strong guess at what lending rates will look like for the next 2-3 years. Lending rate guess: 2015 (Summer): rates will peak by September then start to fall 2016 (Spring): rates will fall to its low (on the trend line) then start to rise (March-ish) 2016 (Summer): rates will peak by June/July 2016 (Fall): ??? For rates past Fall 2016 I'm not sure what may happen. I do not have a viewpoint past that time frame other than to "wait and see". My guess is that this pattern is going to be a reversal but it still has a long way to go to break through the long term price trend line.
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by cmharkey
2