Looking at the 10yr treasury as a gauge for the overall rate environment and the revised GDP data, I'm predicting the US will see rates rise for roughly the next year before coming to a peak around 3.75% on the 10yr before beginning a new wave lower, just in time for the coming recession in the summer of 2019. Expect to see 30 year fixed US Mortgage rates above...
Using Cycle Analysis we can see multiple Intermediate Cycle Lows (ICL) of about 4 to 5 years in duration with the next one due in the second half of 2020. The next event that will signal the direction of rates is if the 10 YR Bond breaks the upward cycle trend line from the last ICL. This could occur two ways: the bond moves sideways and breaks the trendline in...
I don't particularly enjoy breaking the bad news but we are at record low levels for insured unemployment which is kind of scary for cycle followers. What we have seen for the last 50 years, a dip in unemployment usually followed by an economic downturn and we see a sudden jump on unemployment numbers. There are many underlying factors to this, which I will not...
The 10 YR Treasury Note Yield appears to have met strong resistance near the 3.0 mark and is starting to roll over on the weekly charts. Notice the RSI above 70 and starting to hook downward. Every other time the RSI rolled over at or above 70 for the last decade, the trend was down shortly afterwards. The next likely support is at the 2.5 area, which by then...
The 10 year appears to want to either break above the resistance or take on more small trip down to the e wave on this a,b,c,d,e triangle. If it hits the lower triangle boundary and then bounces, then probability is greater that it will then break the upper resistance. So if you are looking to lock a rate, or float watch both triangle boundaries to see what...
USDCAD, 1 Hour. Elliott Wave - suggests corrective waves (we're basically at the end of the B leg at the time I'm writing this), it might form an advanced pattern to go short. But nothing is complete yet, I'll update this topic when I see changes in the market. News - RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) as well as other banks changed their mortgage rate (they actually...
macd crossed get entry and exit rules like violated 8 ema goal line bearish candles hitting strong ma not moving cloud overhead on weekly but thin always have stop loss order
Something I noticed today while look at the 10-yr bond in general (reflecting loan rates). If you didn't already know, the price of the 10-yr bond directly affect any and all loan rates available. Mostly of course affecting housing loans. That's another point aside, but it does look like the price of a mortgage will be expensive over the summer. Anyway, what I...
Notes on chart. Radian has been somewhat beleaguered until recently. Now it's heading higher on loose monetary policy statement. With some volume this week, could go much higher. Target 20.00 in 3 months.