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Moshkelgosha

A lesson from Tesla's Bitcoin position..!These days everyone talks about Tesla closing 75% of its bitcoin position. Let's evaluate it and see if there is anything that we can learn from it: 1- A Perfect Entry: according to Tesla's earnings call average entry price was $31,620..! Considering 27829 was the lowest price of 2021 and bitcoin traded only 22 days below Tesla's average. 2- Missing opportunity to realize +100% gain in less than 1 year, Twice..! 3- Closing below Entry with 170 million USD loss: Tesla sold $936 million worth of Bitcoin at the price of $28,888! As you can see to be successful in Trading or Investing you need a perfect entry and exit strategy, but you should not forget that your gains are not yours unless you realize it! As you can see Tesla had the chance to make a 1.7 Billion USD profit in 2021, but they lost that opportunity and shareholders should pay for Elon's 1.5 Billion USD gamble..! Education: Minimal requirements for a good effective trading/Investing system: 1- Entry Criteria 2- Exit Criteria: Target, Stop Loss 3- Profit protection Plan: Trailing Stop loss The last one is very important because you should never let a winning trade turn into a loser one..! If your trading setup lacks any of the above-mentioned requirements, you will lose money even if you are Elon Musk..! Best
BITMEX:XBTEducation
by Moshkelgosha
5
End of Rally, based on Wyckoff analysis..!This rally was pretty much similar to the previous one and could be followed by a similar pattern..! I expect a 17-27% decline in the coming weeks..! This means Apple will break below the previous low..! Best, Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Moshkelgosha
7
10% Decline in Revenue in comparison to the previous quarter!Tesla reported revenue of 16.93 Billion USD which is 10% lower than the previous quarter with 18.75 Billion USD. Let's Review my post published 3 days ago: "* Everyone knows I prefer not to participate in earnings ..! because I couldn't develop a good system to predict the outcomes! My best guess: Moving toward 790-800 and then drop to 700!" What is going to happen now: I already open this position and move the stop loss to entry (12) when my position moved into +20% profit in less than 30 minutes! best,
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Moshkelgosha
10
Intermarket analsis:A review on my analysis published 2 days agoIn the analysis I published 2 days ago I mentioned that a weaker US Dollar will lead to higher prices across the board in other classes: "Generally speaking, a weaker dollar means higher prices in the Stock market, commodities, and stronger currencies against the USD in the Forex market!" However, we should not mistake this for a bullish market, this could be ended by the FOMC meeting next week. The question is 75 or 100 base point rate hike? While 75 could let the markets breathe for a while, 100 points will drag down everything..! Best,
TVC:DXYShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
Wyckoff analysis, Redistribution PhaseUsing Wyckoff analysis helped me to outperform the market and 99.99% of others in the past 2 weeks, and I believe my followers are the happiest crypto traders on earth in July 2022: You may have been shocked, But after looking at the following trade setups you will be convinced..! July 2nd: 1-BTC: Long at 19285 targets 21700, +12.34% in 5 days 2-ETH: Long at 1067 target 1280, then modified +17% in 5 days July 9th: 1- BTC short at 21616, trailing stop triggered at 20300 at +7% profit 2-ETH short at 1242, stop triggered at 1100 at 12.9% profit So far 19.34% positive in Bitcoin and +29.9% for ETH in less than 2 weeks..! This is the difference between good and being The Best in something..! Best,
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Moshkelgosha
14
Squeeze or No Squeeze, that is the question?The First Public post Since April 27, 2022 However, I published more than 50 analyses but did not publish them publicly..! Will post them soon! What Is a Short Squeeze? A short squeeze is an unusual condition that triggers rapidly rising prices in a stock or other tradable security. The security must have an unusual degree of short-sellers. When Contrarian investors try to anticipate a short squeeze (around Quadruple Witch: June 17) and buy heavily shorted stocks and the short-sellers coincidentally decide to exit their positions, a squeeze begins. Both short-sellers and contrarians make risky moves. A wise investor always manages the Risk..! Never invest more than 1-2% in these stocks! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. * I have a long position.
NYSE:AMCLong
by Moshkelgosha
10
Is this a good time to open position in Tesla?This is the 1-hour chart of tesla which shows: 1- A harmonic pattern reached its 1st target 2- Tesla is at the upper border of a Triangle 3- Tesla could possibly make a diamond pattern after a +17% move For a long position, R/R is 0.9 which is below coin flip (1) Opinion: This is not a good place to open a position! Action plan: If you have a long position and you are in profit, lock it by realizing your gains or updating your stop loss. Best, Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Moshkelgosha
21
NASDAQ will break below the support soon..!Let's See why I think so: I think NASDAQ100 will soon Break below its support level and we are about to see another 10% correction in the next few weeks. The technical reason: NDX components are breaking below their previous support levels one after the other: *Do not forget: it is very possible to see sharp rallies of short coverings in MAy-June before June 17th which is the next Quadruple Witch..! The fundamental Reason: QT+ Slower Economy+ Inflation Quantitative tightening (QT) is a contractionary monetary policy that is the reverse of QE. ***If you find some terms strange, check my previous posts..! 1- NFLX: 2- LCID: 3- NVDA: 4- PYPL: 5- MATCH: 6- AMD: 7- DDOG: 8- ISRG: 9- FB: 10- ALGN: 11- MRVL: 12- SBUX: 13- AMAT: 14- IDXX: 15- WDAY: 16- SWKS: 17- GOOG: 18- OKTA: 19- ANSS: 20- LRCX: 21- ILMN: 22- MU: 23-ADSK: 24- MSFT: 25- ADBE: 26- CHTR: 27- CSCO: 28- ATVI: Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Moshkelgosha
22
A neutral Market waiting for FOMC on June 15,2022What will be out on June 15, 2022: 1- The United States Fed Interest Rate Decision, 1 yr, 2yr, and longer projection 2- The United States FOMC Economic Projections, longterm 3- United States Fed Press Conference, (Jerome Powell Effect) What is the Jerome Powell's Effect? In a Nutshell: High Volatility For further information read the post below: Action plan: 1- Wait for a clear breakout from the consolidation zone! 2- Update the stop loss for long position to entry or above it. FOMC Forecast: 1- Blaming War in Ukraine and COVID for high inflation. 2- Further rate hikes until Neutrality. 3- Although the GDP forecast will be lower, They will say the Economy is strong, and no risk of recession, or it will be shallow. Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:SPX
by Moshkelgosha
5
4-6 week opportunity with 20% gain opportunity..!Entry: at the market opening Stop loss: closing below 95 Reward/Risk: 2 Target range: 120 Time Frame: 4-6 wks Possible gain: 20%% Possible loss: 5-10%% Position size: 5 % of trading capital You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:COPLong
by Moshkelgosha
Crack Spread and Valero Gross Prfit corelation..!Let's combine Technical analysis and Fundamental analysis: Valero Energy Corp. engages in the manufacture and marketing of transportation fuels and other petrochemical products. It operates through the following business segments: Refining, Ethanol, and Renewable Diesel. The Refining segment consists of refining operations, associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its refining operations. The Ethanol segment includes its ethanol operations, associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its ethanol operations. The Renewable Diesel covers the operations of Diamond Green Diesel Holdings LLC. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, TX. Crack Spread and Valero Gross Profit correlation: Crack Spread and Valero Net Income correlation: Gasoline will still remain the primary transportation fuel in the US through 2050, but its consumption is on the verge of peaking in either 2022 or 2023, the EIA projects. (spglobal) Moreover, demand will be strong! At least we have 1-2 good years ahead..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. * I have a long position.
NYSE:VLOLong
by Moshkelgosha
1
A possible 46% opportunity in less than 6 months..!Notice: this trading setup is based on higher oil prices in the coming months, because of the geopolitical tensions..! Entry: 86-87 Stop loss: 75 Reward/Risk: 3.35 Target range: 127 Time Frame: 24 wks Possible gain: 46% Possible loss: 13.5% Position size: 10% of trading capital You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. *I have long position in VLO
NYSE:VLOLong
by Moshkelgosha
9
Buying SARK vs Shorting ARKKFirst, let's look at SARK: The Fund is an actively managed exchange-traded fund that attempts to achieve the inverse (-1x) of the return of the ETF for a single day, not for any other period, by entering into a swap agreement on the ETF. What is a Swap Agreement? Swaps are financial contracts in which two counterparties agree to exchange or “swap” payments with each other as a result of such things as changes in a stock price, interest rate, or commodity price. Difference between Swap and Short Selling: If you short ARKK you need to cover your short position, but buying SARK decreases the possibility of a short-covering rally..! Short covering is generally responsible for the initial stages of a rally after a prolonged bear market or a protracted decline in a stock or other security. Education: Total Return Swaps A total return swap gives an investor the benefits of owning securities, without actual ownership. A TRS is a contract between a total return payer and total return receiver. The payer usually pays the total return of agreed security to the receiver and receives a fixed/floating rate payment in exchange. The agreed (or referenced) security can be a bond, index, equity, loan, or commodity. The total return will include all generated income and capital appreciation. Assume Paul (the payer) and Mary (the receiver) enter into a TRS agreement on a bond issued by ABC Inc. If ABC Inc.’s share price rises (capital appreciation) and pays a dividend (income generation) during the swap's duration, Paul will pay Mary those benefits. In return, Mary has to pay Paul a pre-determined fixed/floating rate during the duration. Benefits: Mary receives a total rate of return (in absolute terms) without owning the security and has the advantage of leverage. She represents a hedge fund or a bank that benefits from the leverage and additional income without owning the security. Paul transfers the credit risk and market risk to Mary, in exchange for a fixed/floating stream of payments. He represents a trader whose long positions can be converted to a short-hedged position while also deferring the loss or gain to the end of swap maturity. The Bottom Line Swap contracts can be easily customized to meet the needs of all parties. They offer win-win agreements for participants, including intermediaries like banks that facilitate the transactions. Even so, participants should be aware of potential pitfalls because these contracts are executed over the counter without regulations. (Investopedia) Example: Conclusion: SARK could reclaim its previous high in 5 weeks. Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. * I have a long position. Reference article: www.investopedia.com
NASDAQ:SARKLong
by Moshkelgosha
4
Copycats don’t deserve to be on the front page..!Some people Thinks if they stole others ideas and change the color it will become an original analysis..! And some fools picks them and reward them..! These are my bitcoin analysis published between April 13-23: April13: April 17: April 23: Now look at the front page of TradingView..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
BITMEX:XBT
by Moshkelgosha
17
Elon's Effect"Truth Social is currently beating Twitter & TikTok on the Apple Store" this tweet from Elon Musk could be enough to pump it higher..! This is the effect of Social media, and Elon Musk knows it better than anyone else..! I believe SEC should investigate Buyers of (out of money call) options on DWAC..! A company with a 1.5 Billion USD market cap and less than 100 million USD average daily trade value could not be among the top 10 most traded options, unless..! I do not want to talk about what he already did in the Crypto market with Dogecoin, Bitcoin, or his famous tweet (Canada, USA, Mexico) But, How you can justify this: 1 day before he published his famous poll on Twitter, Tesla's options trading volume increased by 3.5x, and the TSLA Put/Call ratio jumped hugely..! (2.29) or his brother selling his stock just before a 37% crash: You may think I (the writer) am delusional, but what if I am able to explain the mathematical theory of Market manipulation by Social media..! What if that theory could explain the cornerstone of Robinhood or Wall Street Bets? Think about it. Think out of the box. Dig History, go back more than 100 years..! What if Elon just needs Twitter for Analysing its data and using its data in the Financial and Crypto Market??? I shared this before market opening today: Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
DEducation
by Moshkelgosha
6
Why Elon and Tesla shareholders should afraid of Bill Gates..!I am not a fan of Elon Musk, or Bill Gates, because of morality issues. However, I can not deny that I learn a lot of things from their success story. Maybe it would be better to say, I was a fan of both before I know about Elon's role in market manipulation(Pump and Dump in Crypto Market) or Gate's friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. Now let's go to the news: "Bill Gates has a large short Tesla position" There are a couple of things we do not know: 1- How big that position is? 2- When did Gates open it? 3- Is this a simple short position or a complex options position? But, what I know about Gates is: He is an old business partner of Warren Buffet, who famously said: "I will never buy Tesla nor Short it." Moreover, I know Gates is superb at predicting what is about to happen in the future thanks to the data modeling forecasts..! Two most recent examples: 1- Predicting a Pandemic in 2015, TED Talk: If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. 5 years later COVID started and killed 6.22 million people so far. 2- "The Farmer Bill": you might be shocked to know Bill Gates and Melinda Gates own more private farmland than anyone else..! They build their farmland portfolio between 2011-and 2020, and their biggest acquisition was 520 million in 2017. Having said that, Let's look at Corn, Wheat, Soybean, and Oat performance since the Pandemic: - Corn: +172% - Wheat: +189% -Soybean:+75% -Oat: +226% Think about it: This can not be a coincidence nor luck..! Elon Musk's prediction about the coming recession:(December 30, 2021) "Predicting macroeconomics is challenging, to say the least. My gut feel is maybe around spring or summer 2022, but not later than 2023." We all know during recessions stock market tends to go down, and the most overvalued will go down more than others..! It does not matter how good the financial situation of the company is. My opinion: Elon Musk should not be angry with Bill Gates, he did the right thing..! Tesla has already started the deflation phase..! Tesla Generates more money but failed to pass above November 2020 high..! Tesla could be the next Facebook or Netflix in the coming months..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Moshkelgosha
13
How to trade Bearish channels???A channel is an area between two parallel lines, the upper trend line (resistance line) and the lower trend line (support line). A channel can be used as an entry pattern for the continuation of an established trend..! 1-AAPL: 2- MSFT: 3- GOOG: 4- AMZN: 5-TSLA: 6-FB: Keep in mind: We are going to move toward the lower borders of these channels in the coming weeks! Education: Channels are much more reliable than other technicals analysis tools..! Set up your Alarm function to "Exiting from Channel" and frequency at "once per bar" and trade if you see reversal patterns at top or bottom of the channel! Example: My last bullish NIO analysis on January 2nd, 2021: or BABA: Conclusion: looking for short opportunities near the upper border and price action near the lower border for short-term bullish moves! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Moshkelgosha
8