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Moshkelgosha

Cryptocurrency and lots of speed bumps..!I believe the most probable scenario for the coming week will be : moving toward 2.05 trillions and we should wait for reaction to 2.05-2.075 level! Answering these question will help you make better decision regarding your crypto currency journey! Investing vs. Trading: What's the Difference? Investing and trading are two very different methods of attempting to profit in the financial markets. Both investors and traders seek profits through market participation. In general, investors seek larger returns over an extended period through buying and holding. Traders, by contrast, take advantage of both rising and falling markets to enter and exit positions over a shorter time frame, taking smaller, more frequent profits. Traders generally fall into one of four categories: Position Trader: Positions are held from months to years. Swing Trader: Positions are held from days to weeks. Day Trader: Positions are held throughout the day only with no overnight positions. Scalp Trader: Positions are held for seconds to minutes with no overnight positions. Traders often choose their trading style based on factors including account size, amount of time that can be dedicated to trading, level of trading experience, personality, and risk tolerance. How would you define yourself and your strategy in the crypto market? Reference Article: www.investopedia.com
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Moshkelgosha
1
Interesting Gold pattern !Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Hourly Chart: At the middle of the downward regression channel (Neutral) Daily Chart: Inside bar after at 0.381 Fibo level.(Neutral) Weekly Chart: At the middle of the downward regression channel (Neutral) Important Weekly pattern: in the past 127 weeks, gold has never closed at lower levels for four consecutive weeks..! Monthly Chart: Rejection from 1800 level.(Bearish) Conclusion: Neutral is the most probable scenario, Fluctuation between 1740-1785. Since gold has been closed at lower levels in the past 3 weeks, closure above 1750 level is very probable..! Good opportunity for Binary option trading! DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
FX:XAUUSD
by Moshkelgosha
1
Next support level???130 could be the next support level for the biggest Chinese company in the market! While everyone talks about the 300 Billion dollars problem of Evergrande, No one pays attention to a 1.5x bigger problem of BABA. If you are looking at the fundamental of BABA it could be the most undervalued stock in the market but systematic risk push it lower and lower every day! 220-230 is the fair value for BABA according to fundamentalists, but it seems in the near future BABA will not pay attention to these numbers! We will wait and see, but its rebound should not be missed. Shorting BABA at these prices is not recommended..! DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:BABA
by Moshkelgosha
5
Why Cryptocurrency could not be a good store of value?First I would like to write about the number of days with more than -10%,-15%, -20% volatility in 2021: When you are looking at the total cryptocurrency market in 2021, you will notice in the past 266 days we have had 23 days with -10%, 11 days with -15%, and 5 days with -20% or more decline in the total cryptocurrency market cap. for Bitcoin these numbers are: -10%(15 days), -15%(9 days), -20%(2 days), and for Ethereum is , -10%(30 days), -15%(11 days) and -20%(8 days). I would like to call the day, washout days because if you consider leverage, more than 10% decline is enough to washout many ..! I believe these numbers clearly show Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and speculative digital assets, because: The cryptocurrency market could experience more than a 10% decline every 11.5 days. Bitcoin could experience more than a 10% decline every 17.7 days. Ethereum could experience more than a 10% decline every 8.8 days. this level of volatility will cause problems for cryptocurrencies in the future unless they become more stable which makes them less favorable for traders..! Why Currencies Have Value Currency is usable if it is a store of value, or, to put it differently if it can reliably be counted on to maintain its relative value over time and without depreciating. In many societies throughout history, commodities or precious metals were used as methods of payment because they were seen as having a relatively stable value. Currencies have value because they can function as a store of value and a unit of exchange. Successful currencies have six key attributes—scarcity, divisibility, utility, transportability, durability, and counterfeit ability. The cryptocurrency Bitcoin has value because it holds up very well when it comes to these six characteristics, although its biggest issue is its status as a unit of exchange because most businesses have yet to accept it as payment. The reason behind the 500 K scenario: Bitcoin's utility and transferability are challenged by difficulties surrounding the cryptocurrency storage and exchange spaces. However, if Bitcoin gains scale and captures 15% of the global currency market (assuming all 21 million bitcoins in circulation), the total price per bitcoin would be roughly $514,000. I do not believe Central banks let bitcoin gains 15% of the market and if it happens, it means Ethereum has another 10% share of the market! Today, Bitcoins at its lowest cryptocurrency market dominance has 41.6%, I believe 514K can not happen because it means cryptocurrencies should have more than 50% of the global currency market..! at this moment US dollar share of the central banks' reserve is 59%..! You calculate the numbers for yourself and see if 500k could be realistic..! Reference article: www.investopedia.com blogs.imf.org
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Moshkelgosha
9
Multi time frame analysis for FordMulti-Timeframe Analysis: Hourly Chart: Getting out of a trendless (sideways) phase after 5 weeks. Bullish Daily Chart: Getting out of a downward channel. Bullish Weekly Chart: Price reacted to the trend line and bounce back. Bullish Monthly Chart: first sign of recovery after 3 months of correction Daily average trading value Conclusion: In the price pattern we have shreds of evidence that Ford's correction is finished but Volume and Price volume do not support this idea and make it likely to be a Bull trap followed by whipsaw..! I would rather wait and see if volume supports this breakout! What Is a Bull Trap? A bull trap denotes a reversal that forces market participants on the wrong side of price action to exit positions with unexpected losses. Bull traps occur when buyers fail to support a rally above a breakout level. Traders and investors can lower the frequency of bull traps by seeking confirmation following a breakout through technical indicators and/or pattern divergences. What Is Whipsaw? Whipsaw describes the movement of stocks in a volatile market when a stock price will suddenly switches direction. There is no set rule as to how to manage whipsaw movements in a volatile market as it is an unexpected movement. Whipsaw in trading securities often results in trading losses. Day traders expect whipsaw movements and often assume long-term, buy and hold positions to ride out the fluctuations in price to avoid a loss. Educational Articles: www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
NYSE:F
by Moshkelgosha
8
Trendless MicrosoftAfter a 26% rally in 55 days, Microsoft has become trendless in the past 22 days. In the past 4 days, Sellers showed their power to buyers and made the possibility of further decline more likely. Microsoft needs to be closed above 305 to continue its bullish rally. You can not find a single analysis on the web writing against Microsoft, Buy or hold is the only thing you can find, and for long-term investors, it could be the best choice. 10X better than investing in index funds. MSFT vs S&P 500:
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Moshkelgosha
1
Is this a good time to buy Apple?Apple has been closed below the 50 EMA for the last 4 days, this happened after a 98(68) days rally. In the past 10 days, sellers have shown their overwhelming power. you can see only 3 green candles between the last 11 candles, a +0.61,-0.16, and yesterday a +1.69. looking at the price volume of the day's price declined in comparison to the day's price went up, I think this correction is not finished yet. Stagnation could be a possible scenario.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Moshkelgosha
How likely Reversal is ?What Is a Reversal? A reversal is a change in the price direction of an asset. A reversal can occur to the upside or downside. Following an uptrend, a reversal would be to the downside. Following a downtrend, a reversal would be to the upside. Reversals are based on overall price direction and are not typically based on one or two periods/bars on a chart. Reversals typically refer to large price changes, where the trend changes direction. Small counter-moves against the trend are called pullbacks or consolidations When it starts to occur, a reversal isn't distinguishable from a pullback. A reversal keeps going and forms a new trend, while a pullback ends and then the price starts moving back in the trending direction. What Does a Reversal Tell You? Reversals often occur in intraday trading and happen rather quickly, but they also occur over days, weeks, and years. Reversals occur on different time frames which are relevant to different traders. An intraday reversal on a five-minute chart doesn't matter to a long-term investor who is watching for a reversal on daily or weekly charts. Yet, the five-minute reversal is very important to a day trader. An uptrend, which is a series of higher swing highs and higher lows, reverses into a downtrend by changing to a series of lower highs and lower lows. A downtrend, which is a series of lower highs and lower lows, reverses into an uptrend by changing to a series of higher highs and higher lows. Trends and reversals can be identified based on price action alone, as described above, or other traders prefer the use of indicators. Moving averages may aid in spotting both the trend and reversals. If the price is above a rising moving average then the trend is up, but when the price drops below the moving average that could signal a potential price reversal. Trendlines are also used to spot reversals. Since an uptrend makes higher lows, a trendline can be drawn along those higher lows. When the price drops below the trendline, that could indicate a trend reversal. If reversals were easy to spot and to differentiate from noise or brief pullbacks, trading would be easy. But it isn't. Whether using price action or indicators, many false signals occur and sometimes reversals happen so quickly that traders aren't able to act quickly enough to avoid a large loss. S&P 500 Corrected 50% of the gains of a 74 days period in 11 days: What do you think? Is this a correction or an early stage of a reversal? write comments and mention your reasons. Best, Moshkelgosha Reference article: www.investopedia.com
Editors' picks
TVC:SPX
by Moshkelgosha
66
S&P 500 Corrections, Similarities and Differences TVC:SPX has had experienced 10 corrections in 2021. 4 out 10 were as little as 2 - 2.5% and last 3 - 5 days. Bigger corrections were as big as 3.2 - 5.75%, last between 4-12 days. Correction 3,6, and 10 crossed below the previous low (lowest level of the previous correction). If you are looking at 3rd and 6th corrections, you see several strong rebounds (Green candle with long bodies) during these corrections. These rebounds were as big as 1.3 - 2.4 %. The biggest difference between the 10th Correction with the previous big corrections is: 1- in the past 12 days, we do not see any meaningful rebound, one was +0.23%, and the other one was +0.85%. 2- Red corrective candle's bodies become bigger and bigger. 3- We don't see long upper or lower shadows, and in 10 out of the last 12 days candles finished the day lower than the openings. To wrap it up, we are just 4.35% away from the top and this must be considered as a correction, however, you should not forget that this is the longest bullish run ever and the longest time in S&P 500 history without a 10% or more correction. Best, Moshkelgosha
TVC:SPX
by Moshkelgosha
4
Does Uber waiting for us at the support level?reversal pattern in 5-minute chart: Market Cap: 72b Shares Outstanding: 1.8B Average Trading Volume (10 days):21M Shares Short: 79.5M Short Interest(%): 5% Days to cover: 3.8 Change in Short Interest:+5% Ownership Breakdown: Institutions: General Public: Hedge Funds: Individual insiders: Sum: Option profile: Total OI: 2.2M Put Call Ratio:0.34 Put OI: Call OI: Highest Put:50 Highest Call:45 Max Pain: 43 Open Int (30-Day): 2.2M DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:UBERLong
by Moshkelgosha
1
Major indexes Review and Support level UpdateAll major indexes started the week with a down gap and have continued sinking so far. These are the fact we should pay attention to: 1- 4786 out of 5816 traded assets are trading at lower prices today, 82.2%. 2- All major indexes trading below their 50 days moving averages 3- They are all trading near to the lowest daily numbers, which shows they are not settled down. 4- They just experienced 4-7% correction from their tops..! 5- This is the longest time in the history of the S&P 500 without a 10% correction. 6- September historically is the worst month of the year in comparison to other months in the past 70 years. 7- This correction must be considered as a correction unless we have enough evidence of trend reversal. 8- S&P 500 and Dow Jones have been closed at lower numbers 8 days out of the last 10 trading days, and NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 7 out of last 10 days closed at lower numbers! this clearly showed in short term more correction is more likely..! In conclusion, I believe we should wait for a sign of reversal, and we do not have any sign yet. Being ready is important: Let's review the process of this analysis in the past few weeks: DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:SPXShort
by Moshkelgosha
5
Crypto market may experience another flash crash soon..!Looking at the weekly chart of the Total crypto market shows whenever we have a bearish Outside bar in the weekly chart, there will be a 22- 44% decline in the following week! If you look at the mid-July weekly candle, you see after a bullish reversal out bar crypto market went up 73%. Take weekly outside bars seriously..! What Is an Outside Reversal? An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session. Outside reversal is also known as either a bullish engulfing (after a downward price move) or a bearish engulfing pattern (after an upward price move) when observed on candlestick charts. Reference article: www.investopedia.com
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
The Magical 50 days Exponential Moving Average (50EMA)In 2021, we should take the price reaction to 50EMA very seriously! Especially if you like to buy the dips! I believe it could be single best tool to help you find the best entry and exit point in many tickers..! Let's review few examples: 1- NASDAQ:NVDA 2- NASDAQ:MSFT 3- NASDAQ:AAPL 4- NASDAQ:GOOG 5- NASDAQ:FB 6- NYSE:CRM 7- NASDAQ:CSCO 8- NYSE:SNOW 9- NYSE:BAC 10- NYSE:XOM and major indexes: SP:SPX TVC:NDX TVC:DJI What is Price Action? Price action is the movement of a security's price plotted over time. Price action forms the basis for all technical analysis of a stock, commodity, or other asset charts. Many short-term traders rely exclusively on price action and the formations and trends extrapolated from it to make trading decisions. Technical analysis as a practice is a derivative of price action since it uses past prices in calculations that can then be used to inform trading decisions. Price action generally refers to the up and down movement of a security's price when it is plotted over time. Different looks can be applied to a chart to make trends in price action more obvious for traders. Technical analysis formations and chart patterns are derived from price action. Technical analysis tools like moving averages are calculated from price action and projected into the future to inform trades. How to Use Price Action Price action is not generally seen as a trading tool like an indicator, but rather the data source off which all the tools are built. Swing traders and trend traders tend to work most closely with price action, eschewing any fundamental analysis in favor of focusing solely on support and resistance levels to predict breakouts and consolidation. Even these traders must pay some attention to additional factors beyond the current price, as the volume of trading and the time periods being used to establish levels all have an impact on the likelihood of their interpretations being accurate. Limitations of Price Action Interpreting price action is very subjective. It's common for two traders to arrive at different conclusions when analyzing the same price action. One trader may see a bearish downtrend and another might believe that the price action shows a potential near-term turnaround. Of course, the time period being used also has a huge influence on what traders see as a stock can have many intraday downtrends while maintaining a month-over-month uptrend. The important thing to remember is that trading predictions made using price action on any time scale are speculative. The more tools you can apply to your trading prediction to confirm it, the better. In the end, however, the past price action of a security is no guarantee of future price action. High probability trades are still speculative trades, which means traders take on the risks to get access to the potential rewards. Conclusion: Monitor asset reaction to 50EMA and define your entry and exit strategy based on this simple tool! Reference Article:: www.investopedia.com
Editors' picks
TVC:SPXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
18
Wall Street Bets new plays..!These 3 stocks are ranked 8, 9, and 10 in WSB's mentioned tickers, as you can see they are all small companies with a market cap of 1-3.5 Billion dollars market cap. Another mutual pattern is that they all got dumped heavily before they got pumped..! If securities have any intention to see who is behind this they just need to check the past 10days trades..! and face off the group behind all these market manipulations..! I do not recommend participating in their madness..! DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
L
by Moshkelgosha
Quadruple Witching is here ..!Today many of those who shorted tesla in the past 4 months are in big red..! Tesla put/call ratio is 1.2 which means 634,465 put contract with today expiry becomes worthless or deep red! But this cycle will be reversed from Monday..! Tesla put/call ratio for the next week is 2 which means professionals know how to consider Quadruple witching in their trades..! Do not worry about Michael J Burry, he has shorted tesla when it was above 900..! and his contracts are multi-year expiration..! I prefer Steve Cohen Strategies for options trading..! My today's put options are in +20% profit in less than 30 minutes..! and already put the stop loss at entry..! It would be nice to review this as well:
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Moshkelgosha
7
Be an inquirer, Not a Believer..!Words cannot express how much my followers mean to me. I’m eternally grateful for all the support and kindness I have received in the past few months from my followers on this platform. I came across an interesting story written by Friedrich Nietzsche, so I decided to share it here. I believe it will give you a clear pathway on how to follow others in life and trading as a part of your life. The Bestowing Virtue Zarathustra—a sage who is also the central character of the book—tells his followers to stop following him. He says, “I now go alone, my disciples! You too go now, alone! Thus I want it. I advise you: depart from me, and guard yourselves against Zarathustra! And better still: be ashamed of him! Perhaps he has deceived you.” A young student (S) spent years searching for enlightenment. He traveled across many countries and lived among various groups of ascetics, but after searching for years, he found his quest to be fruitless. Finally, he gave up and decided to work on a farm. The farmer (F) he worked with was a simple man. He didn’t talk much, but when he did, he enjoyed a good philosophical debate with the student. At first, the student was open to debate, doubting much of what the farmer said, thinking he was similar to the other ascetics the student had met in the past. But after some time, the young student sensed an immense wisdom and tranquility inside the farmer. He started to agree with the farmer more and more. The students desire for enlightenment had returned, and so the student worked with the farmer for months, absorbing his knowledge. Eventually, the farmer noticed that the student had stopped debating with him, and the following conversation ensued. F: I think it’s time for you to leave me. S: Leave? Why? F: Listen, when you first arrived here, we had many things to teach one another. We grew together and learned from each other. Your mind was inquisitive. But recently, you’ve begun to believe everything I say. You’ve gone from an inquirer to a believer, and I won’t let you do that to yourself or to me. We’re both better off if you leave. S: But I came seeking the truth, and I found it in you. F: The truth! You’re lost kid. S: Why would you send me away like this? How can you do that to me? F: Let me show you something. Take a look at this map. What do you see? S: I see our farm, the river nearby, and the mountains. F: No, you see /an image/ of our farm, the river nearby, and the mountains—not the things themselves. Now tell me, what can you learn from this map? S: I can learn where the farm and the river are, the height of the mountain, where the berry trees are, where we plant our carrots… F: No you can’t. Give it a few millennia. The river will dry up, the mountains will move, and this farm may be a city. You can’t learn anything about the farm as it is, you can only see an image of it as it was at some point in time. See, a man’s memory is like this map. It can capture a shadow of reality, and he can share that with you, but he can never give you the reality itself. A man can give you his memories of the truth, but he can never give you the truth itself. He can tell you where the farm was, but you’d still have to verify it for yourself. If you want the truth as you say, there can be no intermediaries, no middlemen. If there’s a middleman, then he is the one you are following, not the truth. S: But what’s wrong with following you? F: If you follow me, you’ll live according to /my/ memories. You’ll live according to /my/ map, and you’ll never learn to construct your own. What if my map is wrong? Then you’ll be lost with me, and you won’t be able to correct me because you never learned to navigate on your own. And if you can’t correct me, then we’re no longer able to help each other. But if you learn to see for yourself, if you learn to construct your own map of reality, then we can come together as friends and individuals. We can compare our maps and help one another see reality as it really is. And when we both see reality as it is, we can journey through it together, as equals. S: I guess you’re right. I’ll start packing my things. I believe if you change some words in this conversation and read it again it would be nice: Farmer: Analyst Student: Trader Map: Analysis Farm: Market River: Trend Mountain: price pattern ... Nothing would be better than to finish my post number 1111 than expressing my gratitude once again: I am more grateful to you than you’ll ever know. Best, Moshkelgosha Reference: freedominthought.com
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by Moshkelgosha
40