Get started

Moshkelgosha

A review on my Coinbase analyses, trading the opportunities..!Jim Simons: There is something called the efficient market theory which says that there's nothing in the data, let's say price data, which will indicate anything about the future. Their price is always right in some sense, but that's just not true. So there are anomalies in the data, even in the price history data. For one thing, Commodities are especially used to Trend, not dramatically Trend, but Trend so if you can get the trend right you bet on the trend, and you'd make money more often than you wouldn't. Whether we're going down or going up that was an anomaly and that in the data, but gradually we found more and more and more and more anomalies. None of them is so overwhelming that you going to clean up on a particular anomaly, because if they were, other people would have seen them, so they have to be subtle. My goal from this post is to describe my view on trading. I believe we should trade the opportunities in the market based on price patterns, regardless of fundamentals! In such an approach, Liquidity and Money Flow becomes more important than fundamentals. It may sound ridiculous, but I believe any asset could be a buy / short opportunity at some point. The Art is to find the right point..! I published my first analysis on COIN before it was traded publicly..! April 13, 2021: Should I buy Coinbase tomorrow? I know this could be a totally different story, but it is good to review this post! If you are an active trader: I believe no matter what is the opening price for Coinbase tomorrow, it could be possible to buy it at a lower price the day after tomorrow..! if you have doubts, check the biggest companies opening days! If you are a long-term investor: you have to be more careful, in most cases, the opening day bubble will bust in a couple of months. Even the biggest tech companies like Facebook had experienced the same story! please check my previous post about the opening day of BMBL. April 14, 2021: It is time to check the fact, and analyst abilities..! yesterday I published an analysis about opening days with 8 examples! April 20, 2021: how deep Could Coinbase go? I repeatedly ask my followers not to participate in this..! now I believe it could go down to 240-250 in a couple of weeks! April 22, 2021: Time proves how accurate is the analysis! I asked my followers not to participate in any opening day, why??? because I reviewed all the IPOed stocks in the past 3 years..! 80-85% will go down between 30-90% in a couple of weeks or months..! Even big names did the same, do not believe ??? continue reading: May 6th, 2021: A Non Random Walk Down Wall Street..! What Is the Random Walk Theory? Random walk theory suggests that changes in stock prices have the same distribution and are independent of each other. Therefore, it assumes the past movement or trend of a stock price or market cannot be used to predict its future movement. In short, random walk theory proclaims that stocks take a random and unpredictable path that makes all methods of predicting stock prices futile in the long run. Efficient Markets are Random The random walk theory raised many eyebrows in 1973 when author Burton Malkiel coined the term in his book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street." Some people think technical analysis is absurd, nonsense, or...etc. Some think it could be a science when it is approached scientifically..! June 3, 2021: WallStreetBets and ARK invest use the same PUMP??? If anyone uses the same pattern of behavior it becomes easy to detect it. I remember the very first time I found similarities between Crisper and NASDAQ:TSLA Tesla , then similarities between NASDAQ:AQB and NASDAQ:BNGO . there are many different companies with the same price pattern and the missing part of the chain was always ARK invest..! July 25, 2021: A classic Tipple Bottom Entry: 225-235 Stop loss: 213 Reward/Risk:3-7 Target range: 255-300-325 Time Frame: 2-4 wks Possible gain: 30% Possible loss: 7.5-10%
NASDAQ:COINEducation
by Moshkelgosha
1
Bitcoin, Tesla, and My approach to Technical analysis..!My approach to technical analysis: I try to find price patterns that are repeated in different assets and using correlation studies to see if they could be good matches. I believe tesla price patterns could be used as the best predictive indicator for bitcoin price patterns. What happens inTesla could be followed by Bitcoin with 2 months delay. Look at my analysis comparing Tesla and Bitcoin on April 9th, 2021. 4 days before the all-time high of Bitcoin I published an analysis with this title: (even recorded a YouTube video for this analysis) Learn From Tesla Experience: what do you think is more important? moving average itself or moving average slope? your answer to this question will save your capital in the market and will change the game forever..! while moving average is a delayed indicator, I believe its slope is a predictive indicator! Don't believe me, check how I predicted the market crash in EV makers before everyone else! While everyone fools themselves about the EV makers' stock price and talking about 7000 USD tesla price and for NIO, I was the one who predicted the crash in EV makers as early as February 18th, when tesla was 800 and NIO was 56. I predicted 32 for NIO and it slipped to 31.91. (please check the related links for evidence) Please review my Bitcoin analysis as well: 1st: Sep 12, 2020: Bitcoin could technically soar to 100k ( Bitcoin price 10457) 2nd: Oct 21, 2020: Do not trade Bitcoin invest in Bitcoin for the next 2 years. ( Bitcoin price: 12441) 3rd: Nov 10, 2020: short term in contrast with long-term ( Bitcoin price: 15186 4th: Nov 11, 2020: fresh out of consolidation: Bitcoin price 15861 5th: Nov 25, 2020: Next 10-12 months of Bitcoin: Bitcoin price: 19090 (target 50k-72k in less than 1 year) 6th: Nov 26, 2020: Should we panic? Bitcoin price 16508 7th: Jan 10, 2021: It May sounds crazy, but this is an opportunity to buy Bitcoin: bitcoin price 35565 8th: Jan 27, 2021: the more it consolidated the further it goes. Bitcoin price 31262 In conclusion, I believe the 100K scenario is less likely to happen soon! On the other analysis on January 9th, 2021 I compared these: Bitcoin vs Tesla: It is crystal clear that no asset class can beat Bitcoin’s gain of +500,000% in the last 10 years, but it is not the whole story. In the last 2 years, investors in Tesla have been rewarded 9 times! We should keep in mind that in the last 6 months, Bitcoin performs 50% better and in the last 3 months performs twice better as Tesla. It seems in 2021 Bitcoin will perform better than Tesla. Bitcoin mining demands energy while Tesla’s vision is to revolutionize the energy consumption in the world. Tesla performs better than all the big names in the stock market in the last decade and also beats Bitcoin in the last 2 years. With current momentum, it could pass Apple in terms of market cap in several months unless something extraordinary happens. Last world: keep both in your portfolio..! unless something extraordinary happens. This is the key, why I changed my views on both of these assets! They Both lost their momentum..! Fixed or Dynamic Approach: What Is a Posterior Probability? A posterior probability, in Bayesian statistics, is the revised or updated probability of an event occurring after taking into consideration new information. The posterior probability is calculated by updating the prior probability using Bayes' theorem. In statistical terms, the posterior probability is the probability of event A occurring given that event B has occurred. What Does a Posterior Probability Tell You? Bayes' theorem can be used in many applications, such as medicine, finance, and economics. In finance, Bayes' theorem can be used to update a previous belief once new information is obtained. Prior probability represents what is originally believed before new evidence is introduced, and posterior probability takes this new information into account. Posterior probability distributions should be a better reflection of the underlying truth of a data generating process than the prior probability since the posterior included more information. A posterior probability can subsequently become a prior for a new updated posterior probability as new information arises and is incorporated into the analysis. Dec 2017- March 2018: What happened in the next 9 months: Trends are important, but their time frame is more important..! A bullish rally is defined as reaching higher highs..! Any bullish moves in bitcoin should be considered as a temporary correction unless bitcoin closes above 63760..! can you benefit from a temporary move? of course yes..! if you can detect them why not..! Links: youtu.be www.investopedia.com
BITMEX:XBT
by Moshkelgosha
5
Money flows matters..!I usually check the price volume leaders of the market every single day..! Almost every day, SPY is ranked 1st in the market, and in 99% of the past trading year, Tesla was ranked first among stocks! Today 12.37 Billion dollars were poured into a 40 billion dollar company and increased the closing price 50%, however, at some point, this was an 85%..! Price volume of: TSLA : 12 Billion market cap 700 B AAPL : 8.2B market cap 2450 B AMZN : 7.3 market cap 1700 B But this job by stampede group of traders who caused this rally is far away from finished..! Triple-Digit price tags in the next 1-3 days..! The question is: how much risk do you able to handle??? I was written about all sorts of craziness in HOOD yesterday..! No recommendation to join them or play against them..! This lottery ticket like all others will have few winners and many losers..!
NASDAQ:HOOD
by Moshkelgosha
3
Broadening Formations Or Megaphone Profiting from Broadening Formations Broadening formations are generally bearish for most long-term investors and trend traders since they are characterized by rising volatility without a clear move in a single direction. However, they are good news for swing traders and day traders, who attempt to profit from volatility rather than relying on directional movements in a market. These traders rely on technical analysis techniques, such as trendlines or technical indicators, to quickly enter and exit trades that capitalize on short-term movements. The trendlines help them anticipate turning points where they are able to profit from trading decisions if they time the trade successfully or to cut their losses short if the price moves against their position. Reference article: www.investopedia.com
NYSE:TWTREducation
by Moshkelgosha
6
Market is pregnant, let's see it is a cattle or a baby bear?“Harami” is the Japanese word for pregnant. What Is a Bearish Harami? A bearish harami is a two-bar Japanese candlestick pattern that suggests prices may soon reverse to the downside. The pattern consists of a long white candle followed by a small black candle. The opening and closing prices of the second candle must be contained within the body of the first candle. An uptrend precedes the formation of a bearish harami. Reference Article: www.investopedia.com
TVC:DJI
by Moshkelgosha
1
Bulls are getting weaker and weaker..!In the past 5 days, they tried to raise the roof but they couldn't ..! When Debit Balances in Customers' Securities Margin Accounts is at all-time highest, 882,103 Billion, as of 21 June..! There are very limited interesting investing opportunities... If you are looking at the major indexes in July, they all make the same patterns in the charts! Now let's look at them in a longer timeframe! All the charts are in a weekly timeframe! TVC:IXIC TVC:NDX TVC:SPX TVC:DJI TVC:RUT TVC:RUA The most important thing is the different behavior of small caps in comparison to others. They started correction earlier than others..!
NASDAQ:NDX
by Moshkelgosha
Which sector has the chance to outperform in the coming months?Pandemic era: Mid Feb 2020 - mid-March 2020 Everything went down. March 2020 - Feb 2021 Everything went up. Energy, Consumer discretionary, Information technology. and the Material sector beat others constantly. Feb 2021- 1 August 2021: Real state shine and separates itself from the pack with a +21.7% gain. It will become more interesting when you know Real Estate has had the 3rd worst performance between Feb 2020 and Feb 2021 with a -6.31% performance! In the same period, the Information technologies, Consumer discretionary, and Materials sectors had +28.4-30.3% gains, almost twice as much as S&P 500 (+16%). The past 3 months: Real Estate ranked 1st, with a +9.345 gain, almost twice as much as 4.74% of the S&P 500. Dec 2018 - Feb 2020: Real Estate performance = S&P 500 = 34.51% =34.56% Highest Gap ever: The Most probable scenario: This gap will shrink in favor of the Real Estate sector in the next few months! Moshkelgosha
TVC:SPX
by Moshkelgosha
5
Bull Trap vs PullbackWhat Is a Bull Trap? A bull trap denotes a reversal that forces market participants on the wrong side of price action to exit positions with unexpected losses. Bull traps occur when buyers fail to support a rally above a breakout level. Traders and investors can lower the frequency of bull traps by seeking confirmation following a breakout through technical indicators and/or pattern divergences. What is a Pullback? A pullback is a temporary reversal in the price action of an asset or security. The duration of a pullback is usually only a few consecutive sessions. A longer pause before the uptrend resumes is generally referred to as consolidation. Pullbacks can provide an entry point for traders looking to enter a position when other technical indicators remain bullish. This may help you decide better! Related Articles: www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
TVC:SPXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
6
100 days after All Time High..!This can not be a coincidence..! 100 days after the Highest price ever, trading in the territory of the candle 100 days before the Top! Amazing Statistic: April 14: Green /Red candle in the past 100 days:55/45 (lowest in the past 200 days) you can not find a single day in the past 100 days with a higher ratio..! Pure mathematics, and nothing else matters: Gaussian kernel None Logarithmic: % Chart: Logarithmic Chart: Link to my analysis on September 12, 2020: When bitcoin was 10k I talked about 100K Link to my analysis on April 14, 2021: When bitcoin was 63810.01, I compared it with December 2017 crash! I want to dedicate this post to all my followers who are Mathematicians, Machine learning experts, Programmers, and Data scientists. There is a big difference between a small fish and a small ambitious shark..!
BITMEX:XBT
by Moshkelgosha
4
If you can not differentiate the Bull market from correction...If you can not differentiate the Bull market from correction, you will pay for it in the coming months. let's review a few posts to have a much better idea of what I am talking about. XBT April 26th, 2021: One Swallow Does Not Make a Summer (or Spring) NASDAQ:TSLA June 24, 2021 Honeymoon is finished..!!! NYSE:NIO July 1st, 2021 Check and Mate..! NYSE:AMC June 9th, Apes blood bath I received many unfair, Rude, and etc. comments, but none of those cowards have the courage to admit they were wrong..! However, I wrote one answer to most of them: "Kneel". I am happy they pay for it, they deserve it..! The good news is the worst has yet to come..! What goes around comes around...
BITMEX:XBT
by Moshkelgosha
10