Be careful of earning calls..!This is a clear example of earning call effect that can not be calculated or predicted by technical analysis!
There was almost no chance to predict this move base on technical analysis, at least as far as I know. Short (Sell) signal was the most probable scenario yesterday! Today yo see a +10% jump!
Anything in the world has its own limitations! Technical analysis is no exception!
on Sunday I published an analysis for my private followers with the title “walking to unknown” and predicted that there could be no relationship between chart and outcome of the earning call.
You can read that using the link below:
Moshkelgosha
Tesla’s earning callOn Saturday I published my analysis (for private followers) on Tesla and mentioned the bearish case is more probable for Tesla after earning call. Do you want to know why???
First check the evidence:
Now the reason:
Tesla's (TSLA) Regulatory Credits Help Results!
www.investopedia.com
My followers are way ahead the Market!
One Swallow Does Not Make a Summer (or Spring)Meaning:
A single instance does not indicate a trend.
The fable related to the expression goes something like this:
A young man spends all his money on gambling and luxurious living until he has just the cloak on his back to keep off the cold weather. Seeing a swallow fly past on an unusually warm day, he concludes that spring has come and sells his cloak in order to be able to place one more bet. Not only does he lose the bet but the weather turns cold again. He finds the swallow frozen to death and blames it for deceiving him. In some versions the young man also dies.
www.bookbrowse.com
I still believe Bitcoin trend has changed to bearish in the longterm and it will not be able to reach new highs!
Don’t believe it, read this:
Learn from Tesla experience..!
Bitcoin & Altcoins slipped into Bear market!In these 6 charts, you see the total cryptocurrencies market cap, the total cryptocurrencies market cap without bitcoin, and the bitcoin price chart.
watching them all together will help you decide better and provide a better picture of the situation!
While many think the Bitcoin crash will be an opportunity for altcoins, numbers don't show this! Actually, altcoins are more vulnerable to bear market! and they experienced a 32% price drop in 7 days!
Anyone who denies this reality will pay for that soon!
The last 11 days..!Do you see that Bitcoin price chart has made 11 “ Lower Highs ” or not?
Why it is important?
Because in the last 11 days 300 Billion US Dollars was washed out just in Bitcoin(Max was 1.206 Trillion)! In the whole cryptocurrencies market this number was as big as 500 Billion US dollar.(Max market cap 2.27 Trillion)
coinmarketcap.com
Let’s see what are the differences between uptrend and downtrend ..!
An uptrend, which is a series of higher swing highs and higher lows, reverses into a downtrend by changing to a series of lower highs and lower lows.
A downtrend, which is a series of lower highs and lower lows, reverses into an uptrend by changing to a series of higher highs and higher lows.
Another key point is to know the difference between retracement and reversal !
Retracements are temporary price reversals that take place within a larger trend.
Retracements in an uptrend are characterized by higher lows and higher highs
A reversal, on the other hand, is when the trend changes direction.
With a reversal, the price is likely to continue in that reversal direction for an extended period.
Reversals are often characterized by patterns that are contrary such as double tops.
www.investopedia.com
Now let’s see who reliable were my previous analysis about Bitcoin and related assets:
1- October 2020, Target 100K when Bitcoin was 10K
2. Bitcoin vs Miners performance in a bullish rally (October 2020)
3. Recommendations to add more Bitcoin to portfolio when it was 15k November 2020
4. Recommendation “Should we panic??? When price dropped from 19.5k to 16k in November 2020
5. Update in Target price and Timeframe when Bitcoin was 19k in November 2020
6. Comparison between Bitcoin and miners performance, and Tesla (January 2021)
7. Recommendation to buy more Bitcoin when price falls from 42k to 30k in January 2021
8. Prediction of a sharp bullish rally in February 2021
9. Comparison between Coinbase IPO effect on Bitcoin with Bitcoin.com phenomenon 2017
10. First short analysis when Bitcoin was +62k(10 days ago)
Trust me this time is different, Bitcoin could go down to 20-10k in year!
Greater Fool TheoryThe greater fool theory states that you can make money from buying overvalued securities, This is because there will usually be someone (i.e. a greater fool) who is willing to pay an even higher price.
Eventually, as the market runs out of fools left, prices will sell off.
Due diligence is recommended as a strategy to avoid becoming a greater fool yourself.
youtu.be
www.investopedia.com
Correction, Crash, or Burst of a Bubble?A market crash is a rapid and often unanticipated drop in prices. A market crash can be a side effect of a major catastrophic event, economic crisis, or the collapse of a long-term speculative bubble.
A bubble is an economic cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets.
This fast inflation is followed by a quick decrease in value, or a contraction, that is sometimes referred to as a "crash" or a "bubble burst."
www.investopedia.com
Time proves how accurate is the analysis!I asked my followers not to participate in any opening day, why???
because I reviewed all the IPOed stocks in the past 3 years..! 80-85% will go down between 30-90% in a couple of weeks or months..!
Even big names did the same, do not believe ??? continue reading:
this is the result of research-backed trades..!
Interesting? not?
Learn From Past Experiences, History repeats itself in different ways!
don't believe it?
look at this:
Still don't believe?
I can not do anything to convince you not to put your money in the wrong place, you are good prey for the wolves of Wallstreet.
Bitcoin closed below its 50EMA, the worse has yet to come..!No matter what time frame are you looking at, Monthly, Weekly, Daily, or hourly, all have made Bearish patterns!
In a couple of years, we will see if these cryptocurrencies become a "Ponzi Scheme" or "Tulip Mania"!
do you want to know what is a Ponzi scheme or a Tulipmania?
read these articles!
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
Wake up, Bulls said goodbye to bitcoin on April 4thI want to challenge everyone to search all the trading days between March 13 2020 and April 14, 2021, and see if they could find bitcoin has had 8 consecutive days with lower highs..!
As you see in the last 8 days bitcoin experienced a unique situation and has had 8 lower highs..!
A reversal is when the direction of a price trend has changed, from going up to going down, or vice-versa.
Traders try to get out of positions that are aligned with the trend prior to a reversal, or they will get out once they see the reversal underway.
Reversals typically refer to large price changes, where the trend changes direction. Small counter-moves against the trend are called pullbacks or consolidations.
When it starts to occur, a reversal isn't distinguishable from a pullback. A reversal keeps going and forms a new trend, while a pullback ends and then the price starts moving back in the trending direction. www.investopedia.com
+11000% gain in 9 months, what could happen next?2 Billion dollar market cap for a company with zero dollar revenue!
What could happen if this bubble burst?
Sounds impossible? Then check the last 3 correction!!! 60-73% correction happened in each!!!
Potential price drop: 40-70%
Reward/Risk:3
Timeframe: 3-6 months
I always try to present the charts in a simple comprehensive format to prevent any confusion.
This is just my technical view, neither a fundamental comment,nor a recommendation to trade..!
Please review my track record and calculate the odds for yourself..!
You’re likes and comments encourage me to continue this.
Stay tuned great live stream and quality content videos coming soon..!
Evidence Base Tradingon April 15, I did a thorough analysis of the market for my private subscribers, asked them to close all their positions, and predicted the market will be challenged in the next week and small-caps in particular. I offered them to buy inverse ETFs to benefitted from the negative market ahead.
Today, I asked them to buy TWM..! so far +5.4% gain in a single day..!
for evidence, check the related link below..!
option vs stock trading???-2.2% may seem nothing to you, but it could generate +100% gains in less than 24 hrs trade.
don't believe it?
check the related link for evidence! Yesterday I published a private Idea when WFC was above 44, today it closed with+100-150% in the first few minutes of the market!
There is a positive correlation between Nasdaq and Bitcoin.Having noticed a positive correlation between NASDAQ and Bitcoin, I asked my followers to close all their long position Last Friday..!
I also predicted the tough week and did not publish any buy analysis or recommended portfolio for the coming week.
find the evidence in the related link.
A Comparison of Bitcoin historical All times Highif you are still in doubt and hoping for 100k or anything above 65k, please look at these charts and see compare the bitcoin chart with the previous two major tops which followed by a -80% crash..!
I believe it is so obvious that doesn't need more explanation.
I warned every one 10 days before it happens! check my previous analysis for evidence!
Gold vs S&P500this is a comparison between Gold and S&P500 in the last 50 years. (since 1971)
In the last 50 years, Gold performs 8.4% better than S&P 500.
In the last 20 years, Gold performs 153% better than S&P 500.
In the last 10 years, S&P 500 experienced the longest bullish rally ever and outperform Gold by +860% which is incredible..!
In the last trading year, since the begging of the pandemic, S&P 500 outperform Gold 3.5x..!
In my opinion, this is going to be changed sooner or later and Gold will push the accelerator pedal.
What do you think?
keep in mind, during the last market Crash, Gold rewarded its investors with 180% in less than 3 years..!
Correlation study of Gold and Bitcoin in the last 10 yrsCorrelation, in the finance and investment industries, is a statistic that measures the degree to which two securities move in relation to each other. Correlations are used in advanced portfolio management, computed as the correlation coefficient, which has a value that must fall between -1.0 and +1.0.
As it is obvious in the chart the correlation between Gold and Bitcoin lies somewhere between 0 to -1, which means they tend to move in the opposite direction..!
Why this time is different..?The first 5 charts are daily charts and show Bitcoin’s reactions to its resistance levels during this Bullish rally.
The last chart is weekly chart of Bitcoin.
There is a difference between the most recent and the previous four times that Bitcoin passed its resistance, can you identify what is that
Share your answer in the comments