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Moshkelgosha

All major indexes overviewWhen hard days come, it is always good to see the bigger picture! I checked all the major companies with a +100 billion market cap, they are all in the red zone except Wells Fargo which was +1.05%. This is not a good sign by any means! As you can see all the major trend lines are still intact although the sentiment in the market has changed a lot! IMO: We are going to experience a correction, not a crash..! because we don't have the evidence for a crash yet. I believe sitting outside the market and watching the turbulence would be a better strategy for the short term while searching for new opportunities that could pop up every now and then. to wrap it up: please put your stop loss in place and let it take care of your capital. it would be in your best interest to protect your profit and never let a winner trade turn into a looser one! Moshkelgosha
SP:SPX
by Moshkelgosha
7
Americans get ready to go on trips..!Potential gain:55% Reward/Risk:6.5 Timeframe:9 months I always try to present the charts in a simple comprehensive format to prevent any confusion. This is just my technical view, neither a fundamental comment,nor a recommendation to trade..! Please review my track record and calculate the odds for yourself..! You’re likes and comments encourage me to continue this. Stay tuned great live stream and quality content videos coming soon..!
NASDAQ:TRIPLong
by Moshkelgosha
7
Warren Buffet started buying back his share..!Potential gain:20-65% Reward/Risk:2-6 Timeframe: 6 months I always try to present the charts in a simple comprehensive format to prevent any confusion. This is just my technical view, neither a fundamental comment,nor a recommendation to trade..! Please review my track record and calculate the odds for yourself..! You’re likes and comments encourage me to continue this. Stay tuned great live stream and quality content videos coming soon..!
NASDAQ:SABRLong
by Moshkelgosha
3
Risky but could be rewarding, keep it in your watchlistPotential gain:40 to +150% Reward/Risk:2.5-10 Timeframe: 1-6 months I always try to present the charts in a simple comprehensive format to prevent any confusion. This is just my technical view, neither a fundamental comment,nor a recommendation to trade..! Please review my track record and calculate the odds for yourself..! You’re likes and comments encourage me to continue this. Stay tuned great live stream and quality content videos coming soon..!
HLong
by Moshkelgosha
7
How Reward to Risk ratio could help us making better decisions!CCIV experienced a +545% bullish rally in 38 days, and experienced a 21% drop after that. At this moment what should we do??? Buy? Hold? Sell? Let’s look at Reward/Risk: Reward to Risk ratio at this point shows 0.97 for sell position, which means the risk of stop loss being touched is almost the same as the chance for target price. For buy it is 1.03 and you see the chance of closing the trade with loss is the same as closing it with profits. Let’s look at a simple analogy: “COIN FLIPPING” In Coin flipping any time you try there is 50% chance of HEADS or TAILS. It doesn’t matter how many times you repeat it, any single try is independent from the last or the next try! But statistically, in 1000 coin flips you should have equal heads and tails..! Similarly, in any trade we do there is a 50% chance of success or failure! Independent of the pervious or the next one! It is important to know that You can’t be a constant winner in any market if your statistics are equals to coin flipping. If your statistics shows your results are even below 50%, please stop trading immediately for your own sake and for the sake of your capital..! It is good to know that in a bullish market everyone feels like they are “WOLOF WALL STREET”, but when market sentiment changes those who have no action plan tries hard to swim against the current, and no need to say they soon will be exhausted and may experience the catastrophic experience of losing all their profits and capital. What differentiates a usual trader from a good one is having strategy to increase the odds of success in different market situations. In conclusion, we need different strategies for different market situations, BULLISH, BEARISH or trend less. Moshkelgosha
C
by Moshkelgosha
12
Road map for a market that losing it's momentum..!Let’s begin with the definition of momentum: Momentum used to determine the strength or weakness of a stock's price. Momentum measures the rate of the rise or fall of a stock price and is a very useful indicator of strength or weakness in the price trend. History has shown that momentum is far more useful during rising markets than during falling markets; the fact that markets rise more often than they fall is the reason for this. In other words, bull markets tend to last longer than bear markets. (Investopedia) If you check the closing price of the companies with over 100 Billion market cap, soon you will notice only 6 out of 86 were ending the market with more than 1% gain, none above 2%..! I also check the market heat map and incredibly more than 92% of industries and sectors were ending the day in red, this number for the weekly heat map is 75%, and the monthly heat map is just 40%. Additionally, another important thing to check is the volume price of Tesla, Apple, and Amazon which are the top 3 in most of the days. If you check this you will notice a significant decrease, which is also a good indicator of losing momentum. When we see a constant loss of momentum for more than a week in a market after 11 months of exceptional bullish rally, we should raise the ALARM..! In conclusion, I believe we are about to experience a correction in the market, at least we don’t have enough evidence of a market crash yet. To me, a market crash is a less likely scenario! Now we should think of our action plan suitable for this scenario..! But before that, I believe we have to explain the difference between a trader and an investor. Trader: a person who buys and sells stocks and currencies. Investor: a person or organization that puts money into financial plans, property, etc. with the expectation of achieving a profit. I assume most active users on the TradingView platform are traders, not investors! So I will elaborate on the scenario suitable for them. There are simple questions that will be the answer to many questions, and we should ask them from ourselves: DO I HAVE A PREDEFINED STRATEGY? Is SITTING OUTSIDE and REEVALUATION of the situation a part of my strategy or not? I don’t know what your answers to these questions are, but mine is YES, to both questions. I believe there will always be opportunities to trade, and we can find them if we search diligently, but the ODDS of success is lower in a market with 92% RED tickers! Please keep in mind that in a trendless market we can always find 1-3 days trades with single/double-digit returns. *Most important point for lovers of options trading: when something is not a BUY, it doesn’t mean it is a SELL and vice versa. My own strategy for the next week is to sit outside and reevaluate to find new opportunities! I know it might be hard for people who become addicted to trading, but I will explain the mechanisms of being addicted to trading in another post. Moshkelgosha
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by Moshkelgosha
18
Inter-market analysis, MARKET CRASH vs. CORRECTION Market crash usually have a devastating effects on prices in commodities and energy market. As you see in the charts, we see how .com bubble, housing bubble, burst and COVID-19 pandemic affected oil price in the past. What we see started since early February 2021 in the market has not the defined criteria of a market crash, and seems to be a correction. Although the stock market is in the red zone, we see slight changes in prices in commodities and energy market. In conclusion, whether it is a correction or early market crash, it would be better to sit out, monitor and reevaluate the situation. Keep in mind the future outlook is pretty much different from Feb-March 2020, when a pandemic was just started(once in a lifetime experience). IMO: soon recovery phase will start in most developed countries followed by developing countries. The future outlook is actually bright and United States market could experience an economic boom because: A: a year from now, most of the population will be vaccinated and ready to back to business! B: Expansionary Monetary policy will enhance exports, stimulate the demand, and cause inflation. *** some sector like commercial real state & fossil fuels will not fully recover because their outlook is compromised by e-commerce and clean sustainable energy companies.
TVC:SPXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
4
The difference between Prediction and Analysis..!A prediction, or forecast, is a statement about a future event. They are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference from "estimation"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations. Analysis is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts in order to gain a better understanding of it. The technique has been applied in the study of mathematics and logic since before Aristotle (384–322 B.C.), though analysis as a formal concept is a relatively recent development. It would be a learning opportunity if you review my RIOT,MARA,and BITCOIN analysis since November 2020. Please read the comments below the posts, some said RIOT is a scam, some said “haha” to price target. But they did not bother themselves to read the merits behind my analysis..! Moshkelgosha
NASDAQ:RIOT
by Moshkelgosha
7
The importance of exit strategy..,I published 9 analysis on workhorse so far,let’s review them once again 1st- September 8, 2020, Long: price 21.92( target price 36) 2nd- Oct 23, 2020, Long: price 20.30 3rd- Nov 9, 2020, Long: Price: 19.78 4th- Dec22, 2020, Long:price 23.22 5th- Jan 6,2021, Long: price 23.74 ( target price 40-42 short-mid term) 6th- Jan 15,2021, Long: price 23.47 7th- Jan 26, 2021, Long: price 28.55 My exit plan activated 8th- Jan 31,2021, Short: price 34.27 9th- Feb 11, 2021, Short: price 37.21 Please check the people comments below the last 2 posts, there are lots of lessons to learn. As an analyst I believe I should try my best to give you a clear picture to help you decide better, my obligation is not too write in one direction, but to cover the both sides based on evidences! At the end, workhorse experienced a fantastic +11500% gain rally in 2 years.But don’t forget in previous correction in the past 2 years, it showed it could easily go down 50-70%..! At this point I believe my analysis of 70-110 target price has no chance to become a reality in near future! Moshkelgosha
NASDAQ:WKHSEducation
by Moshkelgosha
6
Trading could be fun and profitable if you have Strategy..!Review on my SPCE analysis 1st- LONG: Nov 3, 2020, price: 18.45 2nd- LONG: Jan 14, 2021, price: 32.76 3rd- LONG: Jan 26, 2021, price: 42.44 Price soared to 62.8 on 62.80 4th- Short: Feb 17, 2021, price 50.36 IMO: SPCE is not a buy in short term unless closes above 62USD. Educational point: 1-You need strategy to enter a trade, maximize your profit, protect your profits, and getting out at the right time! 2-Remember only liars enter at the lowest price and gets out at the highest price..! 3-Always trade based on evidence. Moshkelgosha
NYSE:SPCE
by Moshkelgosha
4
Correction vs Market Crash (1)My definition of Correction: During any rally whether it is Bullish or Bearish, there are times when traders and investors start to reevaluate their positions, take some profits or accept their loss and make changes in their portfolios composition. Usually it happens a couple of time during any rally regardless of its nature(Bullish/Bearish). My definition of Market Crash: Any bullish rally almost always leads to a Bubble formation and a major catalyst (election, wars, pandemics..etc) is going to burst the bubbles! Most asset classes experience a sharp decline in value during market crash and it is usually more than 30%. But the real reason behind any market crash is not the difference between market values and intrinsic value of the asset class. In my opinion it is the change in the view of most investors for the outlook and future of that asset that cause the crash. To wrap it up, compare the next 1-4 year outlook we have with the situation we experienced in 2020. To be continued... Moshkelgosha
TVC:SPXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
6
Americans are suiting up to get back to business in post COVID ePotential gain:up to +75% Reward/Risk:3-10 Timeframe: 6 months I always try to present the charts in a simple comprehensive format to prevent any confusion. This is just my technical view, neither a fundamental comment,nor a recommendation to trade..! Please review my track record and calculate the odds for yourself..! You’re likes and comments encourage me to continue this. Stay tuned great live stream and quality content videos coming soon..!
NYSE:JWNLong
by Moshkelgosha
My recommended portfolio of 25 stocks for 16-19 Feb 2021My weekly portfolios in the last 5 week have beaten all major indexes and ARKK returns! They made 64.14% compound return in 5 weeks..! Let’s take a look at the next week portfolio to beat the market: (put your orders +/- 1% change of weekly close) 1-AAPL 2-AQB 3- BTCS 4-CRSP 5- DB 6- DSS 7- FB 8- FDX 9- GNUS 10- HCDI 11-GOEV 12- HYLN 13- NGD 14-NVDA 15-PFE 16- QCOM 17- SDC 18- SNOW 19-TLGT 20- TSLA 21- VLDR 22- WRAP 23-X 24- FSM 25- FSR ( If your platform doesn’t let you trade a ticker: a good substitute would be MRVL) Please consider these bullet points * My recommendation for investing in the list is to invest equal amount of capital * in each stock( make a pie/ volume-weighted). * Try not to deviate more than 20% from the list. * Changes in portfolio will be made on Friday/Monday trading section. * stay tuned for real-time update during the week! There will be always some degree of risk in trading, please do your diligent work before making any decisions to trade or invest I will keep eyes on Apple call option for perfect entry point this week..! Wish you endless profits Moshkelgosha(Sniper Trader)
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Moshkelgosha
27
Don’t waste time trading cryptos, Stock is the Hottest market!You may not believe it but I published several intermarket analysis that could be a learning opportunity for avid traders and investors. Most Bitcoin traders and investors think they have the best performance with 254% gain since November 2020. But they will become depressed if they check the Bitcoin miners stocks performance such as RIOT(+1400%),MARA (+1730%), or a biotechnology company BNGO(2640%) gain in the same time period..! Seems unbelievable, but I published my analysis on RIOT @3.87, MARA @2.37 and BNGO @0.52 ..! Please check the related topic and judge yourself! There lots of opportunities if you know how to pick the correct stocks.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Moshkelgosha
12