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Moshkelgosha

The past 3 weeks..!In the past 3 weeks, Nasdaq 100 has lost 11.53% of its value! At the first glance, it may seem normal after such a long bullish rally, but I asked myself: Could this be considered normal for Nasdaq 100? Did this happen before? To answer this question I change the time frame to 3 weeks and wrote a simple script to flag the candles with equal or more negative closures! As you can see, there were 20 times in the past 40 years that Nasdaq 100 experienced a correction as big as -11.53% in 3 weeks! 11 times during .com bubble 3 times during 2008 market crash and 5 other sporadic times: December 2018 August 2011 June 1990 and... The big question is now this phenomenon is going to be sporadic or will be followed by more red flags? In the lower charts, You can see what could happen if this is not the end of the story. What do you think? The author has no long position at the time of writing this article! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Moshkelgosha
10
US Oil Forecast..!It is very likely that we see at least a 10% correction in the coming weeks! Closing above 88 will make this analysis obsolete! You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:USOILShort
by Moshkelgosha
The Right &The Wrong side of the Equation (-51.29% /232 days)!12 years ago when I started this journey(trading/investing), I told myself: you have to review the background of the most successful traders and investors and pick the bullet points that work the best for you! Before I came to the US 2 years ago, I have never heard about ARK invest. I remember the first time I search for the best-performing hedge fund in the past 5 years, ARK invest and Cathie Woods. I was reading about their strategies and checked all their fund's holdings one by one, I built a watchlist of ARKG, ARKK, ARKW...etc. From the fundamental point of view, I noticed they invest in companies that barely have revenue and if they generate revenue they are not profitable and will not become profitable in the next 5 years! Moreover, they have invested more than 99.9% of the funds and it will limit their action! Another common feature between their investing was a beautiful story and multi-trillion dollars disruption! Usually, they mention 30 trillion dollars in their interviews..! The bigger Fool theory: Story of Fake gurus on YouTube: I notice there are lots of YouTubers with the same mantra: "I buy because ARK invest has bought", some times even a rumor was enough to cause the price jump, like BNGO's +3000% move in less than 40 trading days! By the time I found out Bill Hwang was the one who provide the seed money for the first 4 ARK's funds I became confident that something must be wrong..! After finishing my research, I have published more than 20 short articles on ARKK and other ARK funds in the past year, Althogh, I received much criticism, today ARKK is trading -51.29% from its All-Time-High..! and I'm confident that is not the end of the story..! I think in the best scenario it will go down to 60, and the worst scenario could push it down to 30-35..! You may think I am crazy, but reviewing Cathie Woods's performance in 2008, shows her disruptive thematic investment had -38-48% performance! In the past year, those who hold their positions were on the Wrong Side of the Equation..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
4
QQQ Updated Forecast..!For those who like the Darvas Box method: I change the forecast from Short to neutral The Red box is a clone of the Yellow box! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. Education: www.investopedia.com
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Moshkelgosha
9
My NVDA Forecast change From Short to Neutral..!NVDA has reached the lower border of the Bearish channel and bounced back! In the past 60 days, NVDA has lost 32.8% of its value, and this process could be extended further..! Meanwhile, there is a possibility that NVDA Approaches the upper border of the channel before going lower! Good entry will be published if the reversal pattern is confirmed..! I change the status from short to neutral..! ou can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Moshkelgosha
1
Moment of truth for NVIDIANVDA closes below 50EMA for the 3 days in a row, for the first time in the past 3 months! I believe closing below the support line (270) can push it lower to 230 in the next 5-6 weeks! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. *You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!(Based on Option wall data) **Yellow line Shows Maximum Pain level. ***You can see more details and educational materials by reviewing the previous posts!
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Moshkelgosha
3
Possible scenario if AMD close below 130!AMD closes below 50EMA for the 3 days in a row, for the first time in the past 3 months! AMD is in a complex correction, this phenomenon has been explained with details in the previous posts! based on the similarities between the current correction and the previous one, I think it is highly likely that AMD go down to 120 in the next 5-6 weeks! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. *You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!(Based on Option wall data) **Yellow line Shows Maximum Pain level. ***You can see more details and educational materials by reviewing the previous posts!
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
Storm is coming?Netflix earnings beat the expectations, yet you see a -24% in one day! I believe this is clearly talking about what you should expect from the earning season! If anyone has enough money to bet against(buy puts) all the coming earnings, and all the positions must be equally weight-adjusted(1% of the trading capital) I believe he could make a great deal of money! NFLX could go down to 360-330..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Moshkelgosha
5
How strong Selling pressure is?looking at the Nasdaq and S&P 500 charts in the past 3 days shows 3 consecutive red days which are very similar to the famous black crows! The only difference is you expect 3 black crows after a bullish rally, not after a 5-10% correction! this indicates sellers are strong and in control! Reviewing the last market hour in the past few days will show you all daily gains will fade away when markets come to closure! This phenomenon shows this correction could become deeper and longer in the time frame in comparison to the previous ones since the pandemic! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:SPXShort
by Moshkelgosha
3
New Forecast for Ethereum!Since my last analysis (January 5th) reached its target level with 100% accuracy, this is a good time to publish a new forecast for Etheruem. Another 1000 USD drop is likely in less than 2 months! and ETH could be less than 1700 in the next 8 weeks! Keep in mind there will be always a few green days between the majority of reds! You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Moshkelgosha
6
Possible target Zone in the next 2-3 weeks!With the current momentum, it is highly likely ETH will retest the 2650-3150 zone in less than 3 weeks! Keep in mind this is a 3 weeks forecast and there will be some positive days in between that could be used for day traders! However, the probability of having more red days is higher! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. *You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
Light at the end of the tunnel(channel)As you can see in the chart SPX responded very well to the lower border of the channel and now the question is: Is this a good time for entry? The answer could become more clear after reviewing the previous correction and how they were ended..! Reviewing the past correction reveals a common pattern at the end of the corrections: a complex of 4 candles (Red, Green, Red, and Green) and then change in the direction! I think today could be candle 2 out of the 4..! So this is very likely that you can buy what you want at lower prices in the next 2 days! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:SPX
by Moshkelgosha
14
Netflix plays Squid Game with investors in the past 2 months!25% decline in less than 2 months for NFLX is not what many people expected, but option data suggest more volatile days ahead. Looking at the options date for the next 4 weeks, you can see 1.37 Put/Call ratio which is very high and indicate more bearish momentum! Option wall:400-580 Maxpain: 550 Be careful with the earning in the next 8 days! The big question is if it first move toward 580 and then slips down toward 400 zone or the opposite??? Since I do not have the answer, I will stay neutral. You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Moshkelgosha
5
Is this a good time to buy the dip???My answer to this question is: No this is not a good time and we are going to see lower prices in the next 2 weeks and then there could be recovery! 50 days rate of change is negative and SPY seems rejected from 50 days EMA. Most probable scenario: another leg of decline in the next week: You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
Important target levels for Silver in 2022Fear of stock market crash and Inflation push commodities higher and higher! Silver price experienced an 8.6% gain in the past month and this will not be the end of the story! My forecast is a 15-30% gain for silver in 2022! which is above the index funds! (10-15%) However, I like the yellow shiny metal more..! and physical is superior to paper..! ETFs have sold many times more than what they have..! You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Moshkelgosha
Critical support level for the biggest company in the world!Breaking below the 167 level could push apple prices to 150-155 level..! If you are looking at the chart from Time cycle and price point of view the last hour of today's market is very important! Watch it closely for price action! You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Moshkelgosha
2
Gold will pass its all time high before 2022 ends!I learned technical analysis on Gold, and I can say there is no chart in the world that I looked at more than the gold chart..! I have published more than 109 Tesla analyses, 92 bitcoin, 80 S&P, and 65 NADAQ100 in the past few months! In 2022 all the markets were red except Gold and energy! Now you see why I chose the gold chart for my happy new year message to my followers ;-) Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Moshkelgosha
3
A comparison between ARKK and NASDAQ 100 in 3 diffrent window!Part one: April 2020 to February 2021: ARKK outperform NASDAQ 100: While ARKK gained 289%, NASDAQ 100 gained 84% in the same time frame! Part two: Feb 2021 to Jan 2022: While ARKK has lost more than 51% Nasdaq 100 gained +9.7% Part three: March 2020 to Jan 2022: ARKK gained 102% while NASDAQ 100 outperform with a 116% gain in the same time frame! Part 4: ARKK since inception: Since Oct2014 ARKK gained +273%, in the same time frame NASDAQ gained 264%! Conclusion: ARKK outperforms NASDAQ by 9% in 8 years..! Although social media tries to depict a Legendary portfolio manager, Numbers show the ARK team is not what you think they are..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
3
Confirmed Rectangle TopToday We can say a Rectangular Top pattern has been confirmed and small-cap will experience another 10-15% decline! This is the lowest level since Jan 29th, 2021. This could happen very fast in the next 2-6 weeks! TZA (Small-cap 3x inverse ETF) volume doubled in volume in the past 3 months, and could go up to 37-42 levels! You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:RUTShort
by Moshkelgosha
2
What Could be the possible target for NASDAQ 100???In this analysis, I will try to cover the different possibilities for NASDAQ 100: Since we have not seen a lower low in the weekly chart, we can assume this could be a correction! Scenario A: Closing below the bullish channel could lead to a decline equal to the width of the former bullish channel: In 5 weeks we will see another 8% decline (total 16.5% from all-time high) Scenario B: Rounding Top, another 5.4% decline in the next 4 weeks, Total correction 14.2% from the all-time high: It is really hard to differentiate between a correction and the early Bear market..! But I think George Soros's experiences could help us! First, A Joke: It is an old joke that the stock market has predicted seven of the last two recessions. Then an expensive mistake: The crash of 1987 came just as unexpectedly as the crash of 1929. There had been a general awareness that the worldwide boom was unsound and unsustainable, but few people got their timing right. I was as badly caught as the next fellow. I was convinced that the crash would start in Japan, which turned out to be an expensive mistake. Fed's role: In retrospect, it is easy to reconstruct the sequence of events that led to the crash. The boom had been fed by liquidity; it was a reduction in liquidity that established the preconditions for a crash. In this respect also 1987 resembles 1929, it will be recalled that the crash of 1929 was preceded by a rise in short term money rates. The real economy was stimulated by credit expansion. Why should it not be negatively affected by credit contraction? And Finally, his most important lesson: In my financial dealings, the discovery of error would often present an opportunity to take whatever profits I had made from my flawed initial insight or cut my losses if the insight had not yielded even a temporary profitable result. Most people are reluctant to admit that they are wrong; it gave me positive pleasure to discover a mistake because I know it could save me from financial grief. You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Moshkelgosha
6
EV chargers run uot of charge themselves..!As you can see in the charts lower prices are very likely in these 4 EV chargers companies..! You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:CHPTShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
Airlines landing once again?!Pandemic + jet fuel prices + selling pressure will take a toll on the airlines! In these weekly charts, it is clear that major airlines already are in a Downward channel, and they will retest their previous supports which could be another 10-15% correction in the coming weeks! You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:DALShort
by Moshkelgosha
2
More correction in banks..!It seems Banks will correct in the coming days..! Considering their weight it will affect the S&P 500 and Dow! You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:GSShort
by Moshkelgosha
1