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Motherfatherandsmallchildtheory

30 Months Channel of Nifty suggesting Father line supportThe 30 month channel in which Nifty is travelling seems to suggest that we are near 3 critical support zones. We might see a bottom formation within this week or the next week beginning. Perhaps the pain of retail investors might end soon with chances of sectoral rotation. Let us have a look at medium to long term outlook. As we have indicated time and again Nifty comes to meet the father line and take ashirwaad of father once in a while this is that phase. Last time Nifty came to take father line support was in October 2023. It has been more than one year now and it was imperative for Nifty to meet the Father line. FIIs helped in the process by selling enmass. Three Major Supports for Nifty are: 1) 200 day EMA or Father line at 23542. 2) High before Lok Sabha Election Results 23352. 3) Parallel Channel Bottom near 22845. Either of these 3 levels can be the come back zones. Three Major Resistances for Nifty going forward will be: 1) 24040 Critical short term trend line resistance. 2) Major Mother line (50 days EMA) Resistance at 24608. 3) Shoulder of the Head and Shoulder Breakdown from where the free fall started 25436. 4) Other important resistances will be at 26277 (Previous All Time High) 5) Channel Top resistance will be in the zone of 27037 to 27705. To Know more about Parallel Channel and Mother, Father and Small Child theory mentioned in the above message. Do read my book (The Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation) available in E-version on Google Play books and Kindle. Paperback Edition is available on Amazon.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Continuing the Moon Phase Vs Nifty chart further. Yesterday in the message we understood how The dark circle resonates with the dates of no moon day and Grey circle indicates the day when we saw a full moon. Invariably in most of the no moon days as can be seen in the chart index is at the peak near no moon day. Then there is a fall seen in Nifty. Recovery starts in few days of Full moon day and then again Nifty makes a peak near no moon day. We were trying to contemplate if it is a coincidence. Now we saw a small turnaround today. We do not know if this will hold and if the recovery will start from here and now but we will juxtapose Moon Phases Vs Nifty chart with our Mother, Father and Small Child theory, RSI and Bollinger bands and see what levels we get for support and resistances further. RSI is currently on daily chart is at 41.27 having taken support near 37 zone. This seems to be a good support zone for RSI as it as bounced from there and there about several times. Nifty took baby steps to recovery on Friday as Full Moon is done. Lowest RSI on daily chart was around 32 that was exactly one year back so we can expect either of these two levels to hold fort. Father line support is near 23404. Bollinger band shows a support zone near 24373 range in case Nifty takes a dip from here. Mother line resistance is near 25026 and Bollinger Median resistance is near 25372. Resistance for nifty based on Bollinger band top seems to be at 26372. Mother, Father and Small Child theory is explained in my book Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation. The book is available on Amazon in Paperback and Kindle version. Do read it as many reviewers on Amazon consider it as a Hand book to equity investment. In this way we have tried to deduce support and resistance levels of Nifty with the help of Mother, Father and Small Child theory, Bollinger band, RSI. We tried to predict the turnaround phases for Nifty’s upward and downward runs by juxtapositioning it with phases of Moon. To a normal eye all this looks a little complicated and difficult but when you dissect it and spend time with the chart you will be able to deconstruct it bit by bit, frame by frame and level by level. Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risk please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart or any other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. They are not recommendations of any kind. We will not be responsible for Profit or loss due to descision taken based on this article. The names of the stocks or index levels mentioned if any in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
EMA, SMA and which one to choose? Educational PostArticle Written by Author of the book: The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. There is always a lot of debate while using chart whether to use EMA or SMA. EMA = Exponential Moving Average. SMA = Simple Moving Average. In the below chart Black and Orange lines represent 50 and 200 EMA. Blue and the Lavender line represent the 50 and 200 SMA. Simple Moving average is the actual average of the kind of SMA you are using that is 50 SMA is average of last fifty closings. Exponential moving average gives more importance to the recent price and less to the past prices in that order. For example, if you are calculating 50 EMA the weightage given to yesterday’s price is more than the weightage given to the price before 49 days. I personally use EMA for my charts when I want to take entry to some stocks. As I feel recent price influence the move of the candles more than past prices for future upward movement. At the same time for Profit booking I give more importance to SMA and 21 SMA in particular as I base my trailing stop losses based on monthly average. To know more about EMAs and SMAs and importance of EMAs in particular you can read my book. The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation available in Paperback and Kindle version on Amazon where I have explained my Mother, Father and Small Child theory where I consider 50 EMA as mother line 200 EMA as father line and movement of a candle is compared to movement of a child playing in garden. In a very simple way I have tried to explain Techincal analysis related to stock price movement and their relation to EMAs. Now whichever EMA or SMA you use. What I feel is you should remain consistent with it. Do not keep switching between the two. As you can see from the chart there is no major difference in position of both lines in the chart specially when the EMA or SMA is smaller in number. Moving averages are very helpful in determining the trend of the stock. Chances of its correction and support the stock price will get while falling down or resistance it might face if the price is below those lines. EMAs and SMAs are excellent support when the stock price is above them and become fierce resistnace when the stock price is below these lines. Thus knowing where they are with respect to price is very important. My advice will be EMA or SMA should be part of your chart. Which one you use is a matter of choice. Staying consistent to the moving average you choose is important as Harivansh Rai Bachhan the famous Poet has said in his most famous poem Madhushala and I quote him, “Rah Pakad tu ek chala chal pa jayega Madhushala”. Meaning be consistent to your path and you will find your target. Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risk please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart or any other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. They are not recommendations of any kind. We will not be responsible for Profit or loss due to descision taken based on this article. The names of the stocks or index levels mentioned if any in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment