VIX trading sideways VIX trading sideways. If breaks to the upside, PT 40. 42 is a level to watch out for as it also represents the upper weekly Mogalef band, which typically sets for a top on volatility spikes.
Move
THE MOVE iNDEXit measures the price liquidity and volatility of the bond or market
could be the FLOW of FUNDS ahead of the underlying assets in the OPTiONS market
a crystal ball that provides you a 3 week headscarf to POSiTiON scale in or out of your beloved PETS
MOVE INDEX SIGNAL another SELLOFF in BONDS setting upThe chart post is the MOVE index from Bank of America . There seem to be forming a Complacency with traders Way to long bonds .I smell a BULL TRAP
Bitcoin 2023 nding WaysAs of now, Bitcoin is priced at $42,815, accompanied by a 24-hour trading volume of $24 billion. Its market capitalization stands at $843 billion, commanding 54% of the market share. In the past 24 hours, BTC has encountered a 0.96% decrease in price. With a circulating supply of 19.46 million BTC out of a maximum possible supply of 21 million BTC.
Bitcoin's recent attempt to breach the $44,000 resistance faced selling pressure, triggering a decline in its value. Currently, resistance is noted at $44,982, while support for BTC/USD is established at $41,784. The analysis for December 26 indicates that bears have initiated a robust selling pressure, eroding buyer confidence around the $44,000 mark. Consequently, BTC is experiencing a significant decline, setting the stage for a downward correction.
Examining the 1-day chart reveals a diminishing buying demand for Bitcoin as it grapples with this decline in value. Bio for more..................
Exploding MOVE/VIX Ratio: A Major Warning SignHey everyone 👋
Guess what? This post was created by two TradingView users! @SquishTrade and I collaborated on this post.
We wanted to share our thoughts about the MOVE/VIX ratio, which has been exploding recently, and which may be presenting a warning about the future movement of the S&P 500 ( SPX ).
Before we begin, here's a bit more about the MOVE index:
The MOVE Bond Market Volatility Index measures the expected volatility of the U.S. Treasury bond market. It is calculated based on the prices of options contracts on Treasury bonds. The higher the price of these options, the higher the expected volatility of the market. The MOVE index is widely used by investors, traders, and analysts as a measure of risk in the bond market, as changes in market volatility can have a significant impact on the prices of bonds and other financial instruments.
The above image shows a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond issued in 1976.
Here's a bit more about the VIX volatility index:
The VIX is a measure of volatility in the stock market. More specifically, the VIX measures volatility by using weighted prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates. When the VIX volatility index was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) in 1993, it was calculated using at-the-money (ATM) options. In 2003, the calculation was modified to include a much wider range of ATM and out-of-the-money (OTM) strikes with a non-zero bid. The only SPX options that are considered by the volatility index calculation are those whose expiry period lies within more than 23 days and less than 37 days.
The above image shows the highest VIX ever recorded at the close of a trading day. It occurred near the start of the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown.
Recently, @SquishTrade discovered that the ratio between the MOVE bond volatility index and the VIX volatility index has been rising along a trend line (as shown below).
Indeed, since 2021, the MOVE/VIX ratio has been exploding higher and is now approaching the highest level ever.
@SquishTrade identified that the daily chart of the MOVE/VIX ratio has shown a moderately strong positive correlation to moves in the S&P 500, this correlation appears to be statistically significant.
Citing the above chart, @SquishTrade further explains that:
The peaks in MOVE/VIX seem to correlate with peaks in SPX, especially since late 2021 (exceptions in yellow circles). This makes sense. When a rise in MOVE occurs, but VIX stays low, this raises the ratio. Of course, when VIX stays low, it's almost always because SPX price has risen or remains supported. Overall, higher MOVE and lower VIX suggest underlying problems in broader bond markets / financial system / economy AND that this is not being reflected in implied volatility (IV) for SPX. In other words, for a variety of reasons, some of which may have to do with volatility players, equity volatility shows that equities don't care yet.
When the VIX rises, the ratio falls. The interesting thing is that the peaks in MOVE/VIX correspond with the peaks in the SPX. The other interesting thing is the general trend up in MOVE/VIX and the corresponding trend down in SPX since late 2021.
So when MOVE/VIX peaks, it is as if rates markets are flashing red, and SPX is rallying like all is well. That process continues until a top in both SPX and MOVE/VIX occurs, at which time SPX gets the memo, VIX rises, and the MOVE/VIX and SPX fall together.
My response to @SquishTrade's above analysis is that: It is my belief that the explosive move higher in the MOVE/VIX ratio relates to the capital dislocation hypothesis, which I explain in further detail in my TradingView post below:
In short, the capital dislocation hypothesis is that there is far too much capital in the stock market (SPX) for bond yields to be as high as they are (and while GDP growth is also as low as it currently is). Similarly, S&P 500 volatility (VIX) is far too low for bond volatility (MOVE) to be as high as it is, as @SquishTrade alludes above.
Exeter's inverted pyramid (shown below) ranks financial assets according to safety, with the safest assets at the bottom of the inverted pyramid. Whenever an asset lower down on the inverted pyramid becomes volatile, riskier assets above it tend to experience some greater degree of volatility. This often occurs on a lagging basis since macroeconomic processes are not instantaneous.
Therefore, we can extrapolate that the extreme volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds will likely precede extreme volatility in riskier asset classes, including stocks. Consequently, the exploding MOVE/VIX ratio is likely a warning that the VIX may move much higher soon. Chart analysis of the VIX, as shown below, potentially supports this conclusion.
Bond volatility, as measured by the MOVE index, has likely increased due to the market's extreme uncertainty about the future of interest rates and monetary policy. This extreme uncertainty underpins the stagflation paradox: persistently high inflation pulls the central bank toward monetary tightening (higher bond yields) while liquidity issues and slowing economic growth pull the central bank toward monetary easing (lower bond yields), thus resulting in bond volatility. The explosion of bond volatility is likely a sign of impending stagflation, which may be severe. For more of my stagflation analysis, you can read the below post:
Certain futures markets, such as the Eurodollar futures market, which typically guides the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, have been experiencing historically high volatility, as shown below.
The above futures chart suggests that the uncertainty about future interest rates stems directly from ambivalent market participants. Since the Federal Reserve generally follows the market, if there is extreme uncertainty and ambivalence about the future of interest rates among market participants then the result will likely be a period of whipsawing monetary policy (whereby the Fed hikes, cuts, hikes, and cuts interest rates in rapid succession). In the quarters and years to come, we will likely see extreme monetary policy whipsaw as the Federal Reserve grapples with the dueling high inflation and slowing economic growth crises that characterize stagflation.
Be sure to follow @SquishTrade on TradingView, and let us know in the comments below if you would like us to collaborate on additional posts! If you're interested in collaborating with us, also let us know!
Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
Why we’re watching the Bond/Equity Volatility
With the action-packed week of global central bank meetings for September now behind us, we believe it's an appropriate time to review where we stand. The current phase, in our view, can be aptly summarized by the words of Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist: a ‘Table Mountain’ scenario rather than a ‘Matterhorn.’ Recent announcements have positioned the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve as adopting a pause stance. Meanwhile, the ECB suggests that it is in the final stages of its hiking program, and Sweden’s Riksbank has just executed its final hike. While we remain slightly skeptical that these hikes may indeed be the final ones, let's entertain this thought and examine what transpires during periods of a defined pause.
Defined pause periods raise alerts for us, as highlighted in our previous piece on US Equities. In that article, we pointed out the impact of a Fed pause, as it has often preceded periods of equity drawdowns. This pattern becomes even more evident when we consider other variables like shifts in the dollar and interest rates.
Looking at the S&P 500 index —in 2000 and 2006—where a clear pause was observed, significant equity drawdowns followed thereafter.
Furthermore, the 10-Year, 2-Year, and 3-Month yields have just reached their highest levels since October 2007, June 2007, and January 2001, respectively. These yields mark the highest nominal interest rates seen in decades across the interest rate curve.
More significantly, this shift has brought real yields back to positive levels, something investors haven't seen for a while, all while the yield curve inverts to unprecedented levels. All of these factors have spill-over effects on investors accustomed to decades of low real interest rates.
Another observation worth noting is that the ratio of Bond to Equity volatility has proven to be a reliable indicator for predicting the next market regime. For instance, during the 2008 period, a break in this ratio was followed by significant moves lower in the market.
A similar phenomenon was observed in 2019, where a sharp break in the ratio of MOVE to VIX preceded the market's next downturn. What captures our interest now is a recent, significant break in this ratio, reinforcing our bearish outlook on equities.
In terms of daily charts, the recent gap down places the index at a precarious juncture as it grapples with both a sharp break of the 100-day moving average and trend support. Compared to the last two instances when the index broke lower, the current RSI stands at even lower levels. Adding to this, only 18% of S&P 500 stocks currently trade above their 50-day moving average.
Given the breakdown in the MOVE/VIX ratio, the global pause in interest rate policy, and supporting technical indicators, we are inclined to maintain a bearish stance on US equities. We can express this view via a short position on the CME E-mini S&P 500 Futures at the current level of 4347, with the take profit at 3800 and stop at 4500. Each 0.25 point move in the E-MINI S&P500 index Futures is equal to $12.5. We can also express this same view with the CME Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index. With each 0.25 point move equating to $1.25, its smaller tick size compared to the standard contract offers greater flexibility in position-building or averaging your entries.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
MACRO MONDAY 12 - Positive MOVE IndexMACRO MONDAY 12
A Positive MOVE Index - TVC:MOVE
The U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index – the “MOVE” is similar to the VIX volatility index that lets us know when volatility/uncertainty is high or low in the stock market by monitoring options contracts. Instead the MOVE measures how much investors expect bonds prices to fluctuate in the future. The bond market is particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates thus the MOVE also can also advise of expectations of future interest rate volatility.
The MOVE index calculates the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options using a weighted average of option prices on Treasury futures across multiple maturities (2, 5, 10, and 30 years). It reflects the level of volatility in U.S. Treasury futures.
When the MOVE Index is high, it means investors are worried and expect big price swings, which can be a sign of uncertainty or instability in the financial markets. When it's low, it suggests that investors are more relaxed and don't anticipate significant price movements.
In essence, the MOVE Index helps us gauge how jittery or calm the financial markets are by looking at the expectations of future price changes.
The MOVE Index can help inform us of the following:
1. A potential flight to safety: When the MOVE or Bond Option Market Volatility increases this can be a signal of a flight to safety as people exit riskier assets positions such as stocks and reallocate funds to less riskier government backed assets such as Bonds.
- The chart illustrates that increases in bond volatility
negatively impact the S&P500.
2. Future Interest Rates: By capturing investors’ expectations of potential future fluctuations in interest rates, the index serves as a proxy for the bond market’s overall sentiment regarding future interest rate movements.
- The MOVE can provide insights into the bond
market’s expectations about future interest rate
volatility, thus providing a heads up of upcoming
change to future interest rates.
The importance of the MOVE index lies in its ability to provide insights into the bond market’s expectations about future interest rate volatility and market volatility.
The Chart
With an understanding of the MOVE Index we can now dive into the chart and the implications we can draw from it;
- Above the 85 level is above average bond market
volatility and below the 85 level is below average
bond market volatility.
- Historically when the MOVE Index increases higher
than the 126 level it has resulted in significant
S&P500 price decline (red on chart).
- Conversely when we are below the 126 level this
has corresponded with positive price action for the
S&P500 the majority of the time (green on the
chart). This makes sense as a MOVE below the 126
level would suggest the bond market volatility is
reaching down to the average 85 zone or under
suggesting stable financial markets with moderate
bond & interest rate volatility expected. Under such
circumstances there is certainty and an element of
calm in financial markets allowing for capital to flow
more freely into riskier assets (instead of the safer
bonds).
- When the MOVE Index falls back into the 126 – 100
zone (orange ) this zone has been a zone of
indecision with a potential increase and bounce
back out of the zone higher or a fall lower. I would
consider this a zone a wait to see what happens
next zone.
- At present we appear falling into 100 – 85 level
(green zone). Should we fall below the 85 level this
could be considered a confirmation signal of
stability returning to the bond market which could
lead to a flow of capital to riskier assets such as
those in the S&P500.
In the period from 2007 – 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis bond volatility remained elevated above the 126 level for approx. 23 months (in the red zone on the chart) and this consisted of three peaks in bond volatility that reached a high of 265 on the MOVE Index.
At present we have had 16 months of increased bond volatility reaching in and out of the 126 red zone. Similar to 2007 – 2009 period we have had three peaks in bond volatility however we only reached a high of 173 (in 2007-2009 it was a high of 265).
We are currently moving back down towards the 85 level and this appears to be positive for markets however I would remain cautious until we make a definitive move below the 85 level. We are aware that bond volatility can remain elevated for up to 23 months and we have only been elevated for 16 months and did not reach the highs of 265 like in the 2007 – 2009 period.
The chart does not have to play out the same, reach the same levels or follow a similar time pattern as the 2007 – 2009 period however we are aware that it can move higher and that it can remain elevated for longer therefore we can remain cautious until the volatility moves under the 85 level (below the historical average).
Its hard to ignore that this chart looks bullish for the market as we move down into the green zone and into lower bond market volatility. This creates a stark argument to some of the charts I shared in previous weeks. I would be more comfortable in confirming the bull thesis from this “one” chart should we move below the average 85 level. Furthermore, it is one chart and for me it would not be enough to rely on alone.
I was listening to market guru Raoul Pal this morning and he made an compelling argument to suggest that we are already in the deep trough of a recession and might be about to start climbing out of it. It’s worth considering as recessions are typically declared up to 8 months after they have started and with many countries having already established 2 quarters of negative GDP, we certainly could be in the trough. If there is one chart that would back up Raoul Pals thesis, it is the MOVE Index which is suggesting a move to lower than average bond volatility, suggesting we are potentially beginning to enter a period of stability and certainty which would allow for capital to feel more comfortable flowing towards riskier assets.
This chart will be a great chart to keep an eye on for those with a positive or negative market lens. You can press play on the chart on trading view and it will update and tell you if we are moving into low risk levels or high risk levels, you also have boundaries for the extremes.
This chart and the others I have completed on Macro Mondays are all designed so that you can revisit them at any point and press play and see if we are breaking new into higher or lower risk territory. I hope they all help towards your investing and trading frameworks.
PUKA
Possible Inverse Head and Shoulders on XRP There is an identifiable inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern on XRP daily chart that has a break out measured move of $0.70 as long as we are able to break and hold support above $0.53
$APT/USDT 1D (#Bybit) Symmetrical triangle breakdown and retestAptos got rejected on 50MA resistance and seems likely to continue with the retracement down towards 150MA support.
⚡️⚡️ #APT/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Short)
Leverage: Isolated (2.4X)
Amount: 5.0%
Current Price:
11.6280
Entry Targets:
1) 11.8450
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 8.9145
Stop Targets:
1) 13.8050
Published By: @Zblaba
$APT #APTUSDT #Aptos #L1 #PoS #Web3 #DApp
Risk/Reward= 1:1.5
Expected Profit= +59.4%
Possible Loss= -39.7%
aptoslabs.com
SUI SUIUSDT Price analysis (1h)Hello dear TradingView community!
While the article was being written, the price of SUI experienced a breakout from the 1.14 level on the 1-hour timeframe , indicating a potential upward movement. This breakout suggests that SUI may continue to rise to higher levels. However, it is important to exercise caution and consider other technical indicators.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator suggests a continuation of the upward move, supporting the potential for further price appreciation. On the other hand, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is showing an overbought condition, which could signal a potential reversal in price.
Considering these indicators, it is crucial to closely monitor the market and observe whether there is strong demand to support SUI's price at these levels for the long term. Traders and investors should keep a watchful eye on any signs of a price reversal or a potential correction.
Remember that technical indicators provide insights, but they are not foolproof. It is recommended to conduct thorough analysis, consider multiple indicators, and evaluate market conditions before making any investment decisions.
The SUI project has emerged as a highly promising project.
Strong Financial Backing:
SUI benefits from substantial financial backing, which indicates confidence in its potential for success. Ample funding allows for the development and deployment of a robust decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, setting the stage for future moves.
Innovative MOVE -Based Ecosystem:
Following the success of APT, SUI is the second hyped MOVE-based ecosystem that promises to create a thriving environment for users and developers. The MOVE protocol's centered around derivatives and price volatility.
Expanding DeFi Ecosystem and Use Cases:
With an extensive ecosystem consisting of 230 projects and 47 DeFi protocols in the pipeline, SUI demonstrates a vibrant and diverse range of applications. This breadth of development attracts users and increases the demand for SUI tokens, contributing to long-term growth potential.
Competitive Advantage over Rivals:
When compared to its closest competitor APT, SUI exhibits an advantage in terms of ecosystem vibrancy. With a higher number of DeFi protocols and a focus on building a thriving ecosystem, SUI shows potential for adoption.
Solid Fundamentals and Market Position:
SUI's strong fundamentals, including a low initial supply and involvement of market makers, contribute to a controlled token emission process. This controlled emission prevents significant price dilution and fosters price appreciation over time. Additionally, strategic partnerships, exchange listings, and community engagement enhance SUI's market position and success potential.
Investors seeking short-term opportunities in the cryptocurrency market should consider the potential of the SUI project. Its well-funded development, innovative MOVE-based ecosystem, and expanding DeFi ecosystem present promising prospects for sustainable growth.
However, it is crucial for investors to conduct thorough due diligence, understand associated risks, and make decisions based on their own risk tolerance.
Please let us know your feedback and thoughts in the comments section below. We value your input and would appreciate hearing your perspective on the potential of the SUI project as an investment opportunity. Feel free to share your insights, questions, or any additional information that could contribute to the discussion. We look forward to engaging with you!
MOVE/VIXUncharted waters as the caption suggests since we've closed monthly above the long term channel. What does it mean? A shift in monetary policy, hence the attractiveness in bonds or a potential peak during uncertain times. No hard convictions, but the odds are not looking great for high risk plays.
Near Protocol coming down?Based upon the daily time frame I see multiple levels of confluence forming, the measured move projected from the inverted cup and handle suggest a move back to 0.68 cent. Stay tuned
Uninverting yield curveHere we can see Japan is slurping up bonds to hold down oil prices. (vs. USD: Red) (vs. SAR Green)
Simultaneously the us05y (orange) is compressing below the us30y (yellow), uninverting the yield curve and firing off our famous recession signals.
But people wonder why the MOVE index is so wildly off the charts..
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG AND STEADYThe war that is often referred to in the context of Bitcoin's trend analysis is the ongoing battle between Bitcoin bulls and bears. Bulls are investors who believe that the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise, while bears are investors who believe that the price will fall.
This battle between bulls and bears can have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. If bulls are in control, they will buy more Bitcoin, driving up demand and therefore the price. On the other hand, if bears are in control, they will sell more Bitcoin, driving down demand and therefore the price.
There have been several instances in the history of Bitcoin where this battle between bulls and bears has been particularly intense. One such instance was in late 2017 when Bitcoin reached an all-time high of almost $20,000. At that time, the market was dominated by bulls who were buying up Bitcoin in anticipation of further price increases. However, once the price reached its peak, bears started to take control, and the price eventually fell by more than 80%.
Another instance was in early 2021 when the price of Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of over $60,000. Again, bulls were in control of the market, buying up Bitcoin and driving up demand. However, as the price approached $60,000, bears started to take control, and the price eventually fell by more than 50%.
In both instances, the battle between bulls and bears had a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. As Bitcoin continues to mature and gain wider acceptance, it is likely that this battle will continue, and investors will need to be aware of both the bullish and bearish trends in order to make informed investment decisions.
GBPCHF - Video Top-Down Analysis!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for GBPCHF .
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
bata india 15 minBata india is looking good setup for tomorrow bata india is at ceucial support area
this is the deciding level of further upmove or down move it formed a consolidation
at the crucial level after candle closes above that consolidation then it is confirmed that
up movement target will be 1662 big target trail your stoploss
Thank you
BSE:BATA1!
BTC WILL BOOM ... FOR SHORT TIME ....!!!!!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support it with a like and follow.
We can see how the price shattered the triangle resistance line on the 3H chart.The resistance line became a support line after the price broke through it.Within a couple of hours, the price retests.The price has the potential to return to the resistance level following an anticipated retest; consequently, I have set our objective at 17.4k to 17.6k.This is my opinion, and I sincerely hope that it will be of use to you.
If you like my ideas then do support them with like and follow.
Also, share your views in the comment section.
Have you remembered.I have been published an idea previous weeks that market will fall , especially bitcoin.
Now i am going to clear this for you people that bitcoin is making inverse cup and handle form.
So bitcoin will fall to 13k to 16k soon , then it will step on on the bullish track.
Its on higher time frame so you have to wait for proper long term investment 😉🙂.
The moveHi everyone,
Update on free signal on TradingView: We hit our take profit in 3 days. 👌 (link down below)
Yesterday I mentioned that we are seeing an ascending triangle on ETHUSDT, which was bullish, and we were also looking at a double bottom and retest on the same coin. However, We couldn't confirm the next move since we had rising wedge on VETUSDT, which is bearish.
Today, we had some volatility and we also broke a resistance on BTCUSDT after forming a head and shoulders pattern. After breaking the last high, price rejected the major resistance, which is what I said 3 days ago on one of my posts.
Right, I expect the price to pullback to the last high (shown on the chart) and then retest it.
If we see a rejection from 23500 level, then we are going to retest the last major resistance and probably break it too.
Please comment if you have any questions, I will try my best to answer them.
Thank you😊
