Movement #MOVE Price / Crypto / Technical Analysis StudyThe transparency in the graphics in this image is quite clear, I am sharing the example for educational purposes, I have been trading in these farms many times. You can make it a classic, the red horizontal line is a strong resistance area that has been tried many times, it is the first area that must be crossed in order to say that the price is rising. The green horizontal line is the current movement support of the price and its closing below the level reduces the price to the test of the yellow line, the main important demand area, and when it cannot find sufficient demand in the yellow line, the price continues its downward movement for exploration and the price tags in the round circle become the minimum target areas.
Move
LGVN(Longeveron Inc.): Stock Trade Analysis - 4xLGVN: Stock Trade Analysis and Sentiment Overview
I spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more.
Market Overview (Current Price $1.86):
- LGVN has activated the buy entry at $2.13, showing bullish potential as speculative interest grows around small-cap biotech stocks.
- Sentiment in the healthcare and biotech sector has improved recently due to increased funding and positive market momentum.
Technical Overview:
- Support Levels: $1.50, $0.78 (Stop-Loss)
- Resistance Levels: $5.00 (TP1), $8.50 (TP2)
- Indicators: RSI on the daily chart indicates the stock is approaching a neutral zone after prior selling pressure. MACD shows early bullish divergence, aligning with potential upward movement.
Fundamental Catalysts:
- Company-Specific News: LGVN has been gaining attention for advancements in clinical trials, which could drive investor interest.
- Sector Trends: The biotech sector has been experiencing renewed speculative interest due to an influx of venture funding and increased M&A activity.
- Market News: Broader market recovery trends in small-cap stocks favour upside potential for LGVN.
Scenario Planning:
- Bullish Scenario: Positive momentum could drive the stock price to TP1 ($5.00), with the potential for a longer-term move to TP2 ($8.50).
- Risk Scenario: Negative trial outcomes or broader market weakness could test the SL at $0.78.
Trade Setup:
- Entry Price: $2.13 (Activated)
- Stop-Loss: $0.78
- Take-Profit Targets:
- TP1: $5.00
- TP2: $8.50
When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, We’ll Brave It All!
MOVE - 1H A Promising OpportunityTechnical Perspective: BINANCE:MOVEUSDT has successfully broken through a significant resistance zone, a bullish indicator of strong upward momentum. Following this breakout, the price has entered a consolidation phase above the previous resistance, effectively turning it into a robust support zone. This price action indicates accumulation and provides a solid foundation for further growth. With clear targets marked at $1.5000 and $1.7000, MOVEUSDT presents an excellent buying opportunity, offering significant potential for short-term gains.
Fundamental Perspective:
MOVE is gaining traction in the market as a project leveraging innovative decentralized finance (DeFi) mechanisms and gamification in crypto trading. Recent collaborations and updates from the MOVE team have amplified its utility, including integrations with high-performance blockchain networks. The increase in trading volume and growing community support highlight strong market confidence in the project.
Moreover, the overall bullish sentiment in altcoin markets, coupled with MOVE’s unique position in providing accessible DeFi solutions, supports a potential price rally. With these solid fundamentals aligning with the technical breakout, MOVEUSDT has the potential to reach higher price levels in the near future.
This setup provides both technical and fundamental justification for an upward move—don’t miss out on this opportunity! 🚀
MOVE INDEX BONDS SET TO HAVE CRISIS The chart of the move index aka BOND VIX is showing a high level of Complacency as the bonds are in sharp decline phases The worst is yet to come as the Panic in the debt markets has not been seen. Inflation and deep recession is in my model and forecast for the next 18 plus months .
Movement MOVE price predictionWhile the entire crypto market is adjusting, the price of TVC:MOVE is growing!)
Now, the capitalization of #Movement is $1.7 billion
However, as long as the OKX:MOVEUSDT price is below the conditional “sell zone” of $0.78-0.88, we are not ready to buy it.
But it would be very tasty to buy it for our portfolio at $0.38-0.47)
_____________________
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d Buy Signal for MOVE/USDT📈 Investment and Buy Signal for MOVE/USDT
✅ Suggestion: This asset is bullish, and you can open a market long position now.
🎯 Target Levels: The labeled price targets will be achieved soon. 🚀
📊 This is a great opportunity for investment and trading.
💬 To manage this signal effectively and access more opportunities:
1️⃣ Follow my TradingView page 📊
2️⃣ Send me a private message for personalized guidance.
💎 Let’s profit together from this bullish move! 💰
$MOVE to 1$ (MOVEMENT)Support 1 (Main zone): 0.65–0.68
This is a major support area which is also visible as a green Area of Interest (AoI) on the chart. If the price is able to stay in this zone, there is great potential to continue the increase towards the target.
Support 2 (Strong zone): 0.58–0.60
If the price breaks below the main support, this becomes the next significant support based on the previous low structure (Lower Low or LL).
Resistance 1 (Initial target): 0.85
This is the first target which is also visible as a red zone (Area of Interest) on the chart. This level must be broken with strong volume to reach the next target.
Resistance 2 (Psychological target): 1.00
This level is the final target, which is also a strong psychological resistance. If this level is broken, it will mark a larger trend change towards long-term bullishness.
TVC:MOVE $MOVE/USDT MOVEMENT
BINANCE:MOVEUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:ETHUSDT CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
MOVE soars after airdrop, yet enters correction. What's next?Movement (MOVE), an Ethereum-based layer-2 blockchain, has surged 50% in price within the past 24 hours. The MOVE token price spike came just a day after the project’s official launch, which included distributing rewards through an airdrop to its early users.
On the 1-hour chart, the MOVE price hovers around the $0.6 mark but has previously rallied to $1.56. However, as it stands, the token is still in price discovery mode.
In crypto, price discovery is the process where buyers and sellers interact to establish a cryptocurrency’s fair market value. Since the token of the layer-2 project just launched, there is a high chance that it is yet to reach an agreed fair value.
But if the volume continues to climb, the altcoin might trade higher in the short term. However, if airdrop recipients begin to sell in large volumes, this might not happen. Instead, the token might experience a correction.
Bitcoin 2023 nding WaysAs of now, Bitcoin is priced at $42,815, accompanied by a 24-hour trading volume of $24 billion. Its market capitalization stands at $843 billion, commanding 54% of the market share. In the past 24 hours, BTC has encountered a 0.96% decrease in price. With a circulating supply of 19.46 million BTC out of a maximum possible supply of 21 million BTC.
Bitcoin's recent attempt to breach the $44,000 resistance faced selling pressure, triggering a decline in its value. Currently, resistance is noted at $44,982, while support for BTC/USD is established at $41,784. The analysis for December 26 indicates that bears have initiated a robust selling pressure, eroding buyer confidence around the $44,000 mark. Consequently, BTC is experiencing a significant decline, setting the stage for a downward correction.
Examining the 1-day chart reveals a diminishing buying demand for Bitcoin as it grapples with this decline in value. Bio for more..................
Exploding MOVE/VIX Ratio: A Major Warning SignHey everyone 👋
Guess what? This post was created by two TradingView users! @SquishTrade and I collaborated on this post.
We wanted to share our thoughts about the MOVE/VIX ratio, which has been exploding recently, and which may be presenting a warning about the future movement of the S&P 500 ( SPX ).
Before we begin, here's a bit more about the MOVE index:
The MOVE Bond Market Volatility Index measures the expected volatility of the U.S. Treasury bond market. It is calculated based on the prices of options contracts on Treasury bonds. The higher the price of these options, the higher the expected volatility of the market. The MOVE index is widely used by investors, traders, and analysts as a measure of risk in the bond market, as changes in market volatility can have a significant impact on the prices of bonds and other financial instruments.
The above image shows a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond issued in 1976.
Here's a bit more about the VIX volatility index:
The VIX is a measure of volatility in the stock market. More specifically, the VIX measures volatility by using weighted prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates. When the VIX volatility index was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) in 1993, it was calculated using at-the-money (ATM) options. In 2003, the calculation was modified to include a much wider range of ATM and out-of-the-money (OTM) strikes with a non-zero bid. The only SPX options that are considered by the volatility index calculation are those whose expiry period lies within more than 23 days and less than 37 days.
The above image shows the highest VIX ever recorded at the close of a trading day. It occurred near the start of the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown.
Recently, @SquishTrade discovered that the ratio between the MOVE bond volatility index and the VIX volatility index has been rising along a trend line (as shown below).
Indeed, since 2021, the MOVE/VIX ratio has been exploding higher and is now approaching the highest level ever.
@SquishTrade identified that the daily chart of the MOVE/VIX ratio has shown a moderately strong positive correlation to moves in the S&P 500, this correlation appears to be statistically significant.
Citing the above chart, @SquishTrade further explains that:
The peaks in MOVE/VIX seem to correlate with peaks in SPX, especially since late 2021 (exceptions in yellow circles). This makes sense. When a rise in MOVE occurs, but VIX stays low, this raises the ratio. Of course, when VIX stays low, it's almost always because SPX price has risen or remains supported. Overall, higher MOVE and lower VIX suggest underlying problems in broader bond markets / financial system / economy AND that this is not being reflected in implied volatility (IV) for SPX. In other words, for a variety of reasons, some of which may have to do with volatility players, equity volatility shows that equities don't care yet.
When the VIX rises, the ratio falls. The interesting thing is that the peaks in MOVE/VIX correspond with the peaks in the SPX. The other interesting thing is the general trend up in MOVE/VIX and the corresponding trend down in SPX since late 2021.
So when MOVE/VIX peaks, it is as if rates markets are flashing red, and SPX is rallying like all is well. That process continues until a top in both SPX and MOVE/VIX occurs, at which time SPX gets the memo, VIX rises, and the MOVE/VIX and SPX fall together.
My response to @SquishTrade's above analysis is that: It is my belief that the explosive move higher in the MOVE/VIX ratio relates to the capital dislocation hypothesis, which I explain in further detail in my TradingView post below:
In short, the capital dislocation hypothesis is that there is far too much capital in the stock market (SPX) for bond yields to be as high as they are (and while GDP growth is also as low as it currently is). Similarly, S&P 500 volatility (VIX) is far too low for bond volatility (MOVE) to be as high as it is, as @SquishTrade alludes above.
Exeter's inverted pyramid (shown below) ranks financial assets according to safety, with the safest assets at the bottom of the inverted pyramid. Whenever an asset lower down on the inverted pyramid becomes volatile, riskier assets above it tend to experience some greater degree of volatility. This often occurs on a lagging basis since macroeconomic processes are not instantaneous.
Therefore, we can extrapolate that the extreme volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds will likely precede extreme volatility in riskier asset classes, including stocks. Consequently, the exploding MOVE/VIX ratio is likely a warning that the VIX may move much higher soon. Chart analysis of the VIX, as shown below, potentially supports this conclusion.
Bond volatility, as measured by the MOVE index, has likely increased due to the market's extreme uncertainty about the future of interest rates and monetary policy. This extreme uncertainty underpins the stagflation paradox: persistently high inflation pulls the central bank toward monetary tightening (higher bond yields) while liquidity issues and slowing economic growth pull the central bank toward monetary easing (lower bond yields), thus resulting in bond volatility. The explosion of bond volatility is likely a sign of impending stagflation, which may be severe. For more of my stagflation analysis, you can read the below post:
Certain futures markets, such as the Eurodollar futures market, which typically guides the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, have been experiencing historically high volatility, as shown below.
The above futures chart suggests that the uncertainty about future interest rates stems directly from ambivalent market participants. Since the Federal Reserve generally follows the market, if there is extreme uncertainty and ambivalence about the future of interest rates among market participants then the result will likely be a period of whipsawing monetary policy (whereby the Fed hikes, cuts, hikes, and cuts interest rates in rapid succession). In the quarters and years to come, we will likely see extreme monetary policy whipsaw as the Federal Reserve grapples with the dueling high inflation and slowing economic growth crises that characterize stagflation.
Be sure to follow @SquishTrade on TradingView, and let us know in the comments below if you would like us to collaborate on additional posts! If you're interested in collaborating with us, also let us know!
Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
Why we’re watching the Bond/Equity Volatility
With the action-packed week of global central bank meetings for September now behind us, we believe it's an appropriate time to review where we stand. The current phase, in our view, can be aptly summarized by the words of Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist: a ‘Table Mountain’ scenario rather than a ‘Matterhorn.’ Recent announcements have positioned the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve as adopting a pause stance. Meanwhile, the ECB suggests that it is in the final stages of its hiking program, and Sweden’s Riksbank has just executed its final hike. While we remain slightly skeptical that these hikes may indeed be the final ones, let's entertain this thought and examine what transpires during periods of a defined pause.
Defined pause periods raise alerts for us, as highlighted in our previous piece on US Equities. In that article, we pointed out the impact of a Fed pause, as it has often preceded periods of equity drawdowns. This pattern becomes even more evident when we consider other variables like shifts in the dollar and interest rates.
Looking at the S&P 500 index —in 2000 and 2006—where a clear pause was observed, significant equity drawdowns followed thereafter.
Furthermore, the 10-Year, 2-Year, and 3-Month yields have just reached their highest levels since October 2007, June 2007, and January 2001, respectively. These yields mark the highest nominal interest rates seen in decades across the interest rate curve.
More significantly, this shift has brought real yields back to positive levels, something investors haven't seen for a while, all while the yield curve inverts to unprecedented levels. All of these factors have spill-over effects on investors accustomed to decades of low real interest rates.
Another observation worth noting is that the ratio of Bond to Equity volatility has proven to be a reliable indicator for predicting the next market regime. For instance, during the 2008 period, a break in this ratio was followed by significant moves lower in the market.
A similar phenomenon was observed in 2019, where a sharp break in the ratio of MOVE to VIX preceded the market's next downturn. What captures our interest now is a recent, significant break in this ratio, reinforcing our bearish outlook on equities.
In terms of daily charts, the recent gap down places the index at a precarious juncture as it grapples with both a sharp break of the 100-day moving average and trend support. Compared to the last two instances when the index broke lower, the current RSI stands at even lower levels. Adding to this, only 18% of S&P 500 stocks currently trade above their 50-day moving average.
Given the breakdown in the MOVE/VIX ratio, the global pause in interest rate policy, and supporting technical indicators, we are inclined to maintain a bearish stance on US equities. We can express this view via a short position on the CME E-mini S&P 500 Futures at the current level of 4347, with the take profit at 3800 and stop at 4500. Each 0.25 point move in the E-MINI S&P500 index Futures is equal to $12.5. We can also express this same view with the CME Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index. With each 0.25 point move equating to $1.25, its smaller tick size compared to the standard contract offers greater flexibility in position-building or averaging your entries.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
MACRO MONDAY 12 - Positive MOVE IndexMACRO MONDAY 12
A Positive MOVE Index - TVC:MOVE
The U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index – the “MOVE” is similar to the VIX volatility index that lets us know when volatility/uncertainty is high or low in the stock market by monitoring options contracts. Instead the MOVE measures how much investors expect bonds prices to fluctuate in the future. The bond market is particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates thus the MOVE also can also advise of expectations of future interest rate volatility.
The MOVE index calculates the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options using a weighted average of option prices on Treasury futures across multiple maturities (2, 5, 10, and 30 years). It reflects the level of volatility in U.S. Treasury futures.
When the MOVE Index is high, it means investors are worried and expect big price swings, which can be a sign of uncertainty or instability in the financial markets. When it's low, it suggests that investors are more relaxed and don't anticipate significant price movements.
In essence, the MOVE Index helps us gauge how jittery or calm the financial markets are by looking at the expectations of future price changes.
The MOVE Index can help inform us of the following:
1. A potential flight to safety: When the MOVE or Bond Option Market Volatility increases this can be a signal of a flight to safety as people exit riskier assets positions such as stocks and reallocate funds to less riskier government backed assets such as Bonds.
- The chart illustrates that increases in bond volatility
negatively impact the S&P500.
2. Future Interest Rates: By capturing investors’ expectations of potential future fluctuations in interest rates, the index serves as a proxy for the bond market’s overall sentiment regarding future interest rate movements.
- The MOVE can provide insights into the bond
market’s expectations about future interest rate
volatility, thus providing a heads up of upcoming
change to future interest rates.
The importance of the MOVE index lies in its ability to provide insights into the bond market’s expectations about future interest rate volatility and market volatility.
The Chart
With an understanding of the MOVE Index we can now dive into the chart and the implications we can draw from it;
- Above the 85 level is above average bond market
volatility and below the 85 level is below average
bond market volatility.
- Historically when the MOVE Index increases higher
than the 126 level it has resulted in significant
S&P500 price decline (red on chart).
- Conversely when we are below the 126 level this
has corresponded with positive price action for the
S&P500 the majority of the time (green on the
chart). This makes sense as a MOVE below the 126
level would suggest the bond market volatility is
reaching down to the average 85 zone or under
suggesting stable financial markets with moderate
bond & interest rate volatility expected. Under such
circumstances there is certainty and an element of
calm in financial markets allowing for capital to flow
more freely into riskier assets (instead of the safer
bonds).
- When the MOVE Index falls back into the 126 – 100
zone (orange ) this zone has been a zone of
indecision with a potential increase and bounce
back out of the zone higher or a fall lower. I would
consider this a zone a wait to see what happens
next zone.
- At present we appear falling into 100 – 85 level
(green zone). Should we fall below the 85 level this
could be considered a confirmation signal of
stability returning to the bond market which could
lead to a flow of capital to riskier assets such as
those in the S&P500.
In the period from 2007 – 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis bond volatility remained elevated above the 126 level for approx. 23 months (in the red zone on the chart) and this consisted of three peaks in bond volatility that reached a high of 265 on the MOVE Index.
At present we have had 16 months of increased bond volatility reaching in and out of the 126 red zone. Similar to 2007 – 2009 period we have had three peaks in bond volatility however we only reached a high of 173 (in 2007-2009 it was a high of 265).
We are currently moving back down towards the 85 level and this appears to be positive for markets however I would remain cautious until we make a definitive move below the 85 level. We are aware that bond volatility can remain elevated for up to 23 months and we have only been elevated for 16 months and did not reach the highs of 265 like in the 2007 – 2009 period.
The chart does not have to play out the same, reach the same levels or follow a similar time pattern as the 2007 – 2009 period however we are aware that it can move higher and that it can remain elevated for longer therefore we can remain cautious until the volatility moves under the 85 level (below the historical average).
Its hard to ignore that this chart looks bullish for the market as we move down into the green zone and into lower bond market volatility. This creates a stark argument to some of the charts I shared in previous weeks. I would be more comfortable in confirming the bull thesis from this “one” chart should we move below the average 85 level. Furthermore, it is one chart and for me it would not be enough to rely on alone.
I was listening to market guru Raoul Pal this morning and he made an compelling argument to suggest that we are already in the deep trough of a recession and might be about to start climbing out of it. It’s worth considering as recessions are typically declared up to 8 months after they have started and with many countries having already established 2 quarters of negative GDP, we certainly could be in the trough. If there is one chart that would back up Raoul Pals thesis, it is the MOVE Index which is suggesting a move to lower than average bond volatility, suggesting we are potentially beginning to enter a period of stability and certainty which would allow for capital to feel more comfortable flowing towards riskier assets.
This chart will be a great chart to keep an eye on for those with a positive or negative market lens. You can press play on the chart on trading view and it will update and tell you if we are moving into low risk levels or high risk levels, you also have boundaries for the extremes.
This chart and the others I have completed on Macro Mondays are all designed so that you can revisit them at any point and press play and see if we are breaking new into higher or lower risk territory. I hope they all help towards your investing and trading frameworks.
PUKA
$APT/USDT 1D (#Bybit) Symmetrical triangle breakdown and retestAptos got rejected on 50MA resistance and seems likely to continue with the retracement down towards 150MA support.
⚡️⚡️ #APT/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Short)
Leverage: Isolated (2.4X)
Amount: 5.0%
Current Price:
11.6280
Entry Targets:
1) 11.8450
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 8.9145
Stop Targets:
1) 13.8050
Published By: @Zblaba
$APT #APTUSDT #Aptos #L1 #PoS #Web3 #DApp
Risk/Reward= 1:1.5
Expected Profit= +59.4%
Possible Loss= -39.7%
aptoslabs.com