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Movement

Aussie/Canadian Movement IncomingI'm going to be looking for movement here in this region. 3 things could happen. 1.) Pair rebounds quickly without coming close to the resistance/trend-line, in which case I will skip this trade. 2.) Pair falls further into the resistance zone and bounces off of the trend-line. If confirmed, I will enter long. 3.) Pair falls into zone and breaks below trend-line. If confirmed, I will enter short - or look to see if a double top is forming, in which case I will hold off on the trade until that is confirmed.
by Apheleia
Weekly Journey X - Range movement, breakouts, support+resistanceAs you can see, there are 4 important points that might be the crucial checkpoints tomorrow. Predicting that Nr. 1 is a 99% probability (the only way we can pass that range is if it gap opens up or down by +-40 cents). Nr. 2 has 45% probability from Nr.1, Nr 3 has 55% probability from Nr. 1. Nr. 3 has 75% probability from Nr. 2, with 25% probability of a continuous move downwards. Nr. 4 has a 55% probability from Nr. 3, with 45% probability of a continuous move upwards. At Nr. 4, there is a 60% chance of staying in range, and moving upwards, and a 40% chance that we will see a continuation of moving downwards. - Percentages are derived from my personal research that include news, "smoke", data, recent movement, fibb lines, medians, support and resistance strength, fake/true breakouts and more. They are also strictly my personal opinion. - Probabilities and statistics are always part of my work, which I will publicly incorporate into charts from now on after testing them for a month privately. Nr. 2 is a very good point for a Long entry, Nr. 3 would be a decent Short entry, whereas Nr. 4 might be a solid Long entry if the MLH holds (staying in range) with a tight S/L.
NYMEX:CL1!
by NickBlack
SP500 SP1! Monthly PATTERN suggests sell in DecemberThe S&P500 has a pattern that is extremely interesting. I've devised an indicator I call Range-Movement, which I say Range-Move and shorten to RgMov on the chart below. It measures the way the market is moving and compares ranges to ranges, side-by-side. It also gives very interesting indications of TREND and sometimes more importantly it shows the level of "psychology" in the market. Oddly enough, all of these 5 signals allows the market to fall a little in the current month (September 2015), but then rebound in the next two months into November. So, we can say with decent probability that we can rebound after this month but sorry to say that we can decline this month too. At the end of September we can look for a bounce since in each occasion there is a bounce after the next month ends. The way to trade it is to buy the end of September, and then hold for 2 months. Then trade the breakout of Novembers range. Buy a new high over Nov's range or sell short a break down through Nov's low. The average winning trade here is quite sizable: 1a. Sold 459, covered 476. 4% loss. 1b. Buying over 3rd month high gets you long in March 1995 for the bull market. 100%+++ gain. 2. Sell short under 3rd month low gets you short for a major bear market into 2003 = 38% gain. 3. Sell short under 3rd month low gets you short for a major bear market into 2009 = 45%+ gain. 4. Sell short under 3rd month low (November 2015).... So, sorry for the "heads up" this early. But just wanted you to see what patterns the market is revealing to me. Tim
S
by timwest
23
MACRO VIEW: WTI OIL SEVERE COMPRESSION: EXPLOSIVE MOVE AHEADIt is a very interesting and highly explosive situation now on WTI OIL market Price has been trending laterally since the start of September, causing volatility on quarterly basis to contract unusually tight (measured by 1.25 standard deviations from quarterly (66 day) mean) It means that when price eventually breaks from the 1st standard deviation, a move in that direction will have a lot of energy to release - in other words, it will be a significant and very possibly a sharp move. At this point from a technical point of view it is impossible to tell which direction it will break, but what will help us is to monitor the compressing range, marked by the same 1st standard deviations from quarterly mean. A breakdown below 42 will hint us about downward direction and a breakout above 52 - about upward direction of the high-potential move.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Killy_Mel
DAX German Stock Index -Daily -"If the log rolls over". SELLDAX potential "smack down" from a 5-day time at mode signal ending on Thursday's close and note that the new 5-breakout-failure where a 5-day consolidation failed to lead to a new buy signal could be a sign of exhaustion up here ... A little drop and a sell signal is triggered (and CCI has crossed under +100 for a 4th time in this rally = typical of a bull market move. A main cause for concern is the "internal strength" of the rally as measured by my proprietary "range movement" indicator is saying this is a "weak rally" with a sub-par 50% retracement... So, I am looking to SELL under The previous 3-day lows and target 9080 minimum. 9291 last... If we get a range completely above the purple "6" rectangle area, then a new buy signal will register. Cover any shorts and go long.
INDEX:DEU40Short
by timwest
15