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Adam Smith - Moving Average Cross StrategyThis can be backtested using stocks and currencies. For stocks, depending on which stock and its voltility, backtest shorter chart frequencies such as 3min to 1hr. For currencies, backtest longer chart frequencies such as daily to month depending on backtest you see fit. A quick note such as USDJPY, a week is sufficient for example. You will see high Net Profit and low Max Draw Down. However, do backtest for insurance. A key indicator is the Max Draw Downs. Make sure you compare how much the backtest recognizes to indicate how much money will be estimated or required during the bad times and/or bearish times.
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by TK37
2
GBP/USD,240After the release of the Manufacturing PMI this morning with actual figures being better than previous and forecasted figures there has been a spike in GBP up to the two descending trend line channels of which have been rejected up to now. I am expecting a little bit more retracement to the downside following this spike, however will be looking to see if there is a breakout from this outer trend line, at which point i will be trading bullish. Although i don't trade fundamentals, there is a few news events which could cause big fluctuations in this pair today and tomorrow, especially with non-farm payroll so i will trade with caution.
by MitchellShoesmith
2016 U.S EQUITY SELLOFF AND GLOBAL CRISIS TO HIT 2008 LOWSTechnical Analysis: Along with the technical indicators that I have outlined in the graph, the following fundamental analysis supports the reason for the incoming financial 2016 crisis. Outlined in the chart are my target dates for the bottom of the market, ranging from Q1 2017 to Q4 2018. Additionally, the right shoulder that formed in the 2001 and 2008 cycles has now been formed, indicated by the magenta arcs. The 1Week, 100D vs 50D moving average has officially crossed at the 2016 top, in which the last tops were 2001 and 2008. Fundamental Analysis: We are currently seeing bear market rallies in both S&P and TSX to instill investor confidence, Yesterday was likely the top for both oil and stocks. Here are my 7 reasons 1. Unemployment figures offered to the fed are very manipulated. They involve part time unemployment which was 90% of the added jobs in february, and a part time job does not offer the same economic contribution as a full time, although counted the same. 2. A clear way to gauge consumer confidence is to see how sales are doing in a consumer's biggest expenses: cars and homes. Despite sales, Auto loan delinquencies at all time high and home sales just saw biggest decrease in 6 years 3. A few U.S states are already facing recessionary contraction 4. Debt levels for both central banks and individuals are at extremely dangerous levels . Income is decreasing and leverage is at all time highs, always an indicator at top of market, also M&A activity is at highs from 2008. 5. There is currently a major 30% divergence between the value of junk bonds and US stocks (see $HYG junk bond ETF vs. SPX) 6. I believe the yield curve is fooling everyone; its extremely hard to have an inverted yield when the financing rate is 0.25, and was 0% for 6 years, we would have almost negative yields on 30 year t-bonds. Artificial 0% rates has manipulated the yield curve and QE went directly into equities 7. Japan has still unsuccessfully recovered from 0% fed policy and QE stimulus from the 90s, which shows how dangerous it can be. Keep in mind that the crisis we are currently facing is global, and extremely deflationary due to credit and liquidity risks. Most people are underestimating its potential damage.
DJ:DJIShort
by YungFinance
Pennies To Thousands Material About To Breakout On Weekly CloudIn our book Pennies to Thousands we look for low price cost stocks that trade above $1 up to $8, the reason we like this type range is because there maybe some research but the institutional research is light in this area. The reason we don't include stocks under $1 is we believe there are too many stocks promotions and scams in the sub - one dollar area. We also like stocks in growth industries. This stock meets our strict standards of technical analysis like. On a daily chart: It is above the cloud, above the 50 and 200 day moving average, it is above the 8 EMA which we call the goal line, the MACD crossed, the Relative Strength Index set to 2 is above 80 and the PVT is sloping upwards and positive. On a weekly chart: It is setting up to come out of the weekly cloud. These are the type of candidates along with fundamental analysis that we look for as our potential multi baggers. In our book, which you can buy on Amazon (www.amazon.com) we have strict entry and exit rules, please read them. Thank you
ALong
by penniestothousands
OBV Triangle and it's price equivalentI drew a triangle based on OBV's 50 hour moving average (orange), and mirrored the triangle on price. Red and green areas are 80/20 % overbought / oversold zones. At this moment we are in the overbought zone so you can try a short here. I expect a big move of ca. 50% after price breaks out of the triangle. Targets: Upside: 333-375 Downside: 130-90 Cheers : ] -- PS: Here is the pine script code for the OBV indicator with moving averages: pastebin.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MagnusTradingGroup
MCD Long; 150EMA Support - Risk:Reward Of 62:1This trade setup is pretty simple and doesn't require any rocket science. McDonald's, or MCD, is a component of the DOW30. MCD has been in a trading range on the weekly chart for quite some time now. We are currently at the bottom of this range, providing an excellent opportunity to get long. I'm using covered calls in this name to get long the stock at as cheap a price as possible. The RSI show at label (A) is finding support in the oversold zone we have seen it bounce from before. In addition, we have moved off the 150EMA Weekly, which if you look at the green ellipse has previously held up since about 2007-2008 (not shown in this chart). There are two long possibilities here for me: 1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 100 Call for $0.27 making your cost basis $93.41. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.36 to make a maximum of $6.59. That's a risk reward of 18:1. 2) 1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 97.5 Call for $0.57 making your cost basis $93.11. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.07 to make a maximum of $4.39. That's a risk reward of 62:1. (I traded #2) The risk reward is assuming we could close out the position on the penny. This of course is not entirely true because we do not know how far below the market can close. It give you an idea however of just how well this trade is setup. You can tailor your stops to your liking. For example from this level, my stop is on a close below $93.05 or a touch of $92.35. This is because I never risk more than 2% on a single trade. I traded play number 2 because it brought my cost basis closer to the EMA reducing risk, while limiting profit. To compensate I doubled the size of my MCD position so the profit would match that of Trade Play #1, with my total risk being less than 2% still, and appropriate stops in play as mentioned. $97.50 is the closest and more likely target, with $102.00 being the top and more extended part of the range. So by using the $97.50 calls and doubling my size, my chances are better yet that I will achieve the same profits as Trading Play #1, simply because it only requires MCD to head towards $97.50 and not $102.00. Good luck, and may the markets be ever in your favor!
NYSE:MCDLong
by TheProfitcy
US Oil Short From Bullish Flag; High Risk:Reward RatioUSO has broken it's uptrend a few weeks back, and since has been heading violently lower with no signs of stopping, at least not yet. Not in my eyes. I had a plethora of converging indications, so I've marked them in the chart A - F, and then explained my trade setup. Good luck. A) RSI has broken above the 35 level, but this is likely because it bounced a bit from being oversold. It remains below 50 which is a bearish indication and still has resistance at the 40 level. B) The cream of the crop. B marks the head of a head and shoulders pattern in USO. You can see when the neckline was broken here, while simultaneously breaking a series of important EMAs, USO began it's slide. We would expect some sort of throw back to this neckline. This will be important in our trade setup later. C) Here is our bearish flag and Andrew's Pitchfork. You can see the slight countertrend movement off the lower bollinger band, and what now looks to be a hanging man. This entire move up is hitting resistance in the pitch fork, as well as the flag formation, and has formed entirely on declining volume. That's not a positive sign for continued upward momentum. D) PSZ (Prior Support Zone) from way back when. I'm expecting a move down into this zone where it will coincide with support at the lower BB or lower median pitchfork line. We may get a bounce down here, or more consolidation. E) Volume Decline Throughout Bear Flag F) Declining & Still Negative MACD The one thing I didn't like here was the RSI, and that the weekly chart shows that we may need a throwback before extended downward momentum. This is where that neckline comes into play. We may very well see a throwback to the 66 area before we are awarded with any serious downside momentum. However the weekly RSI is also in a downtrend, reinforcing our bearish outlook. I'm short a directional diagonal on this play, to take advantage of Theta decay, and let oil slowly drift lower in my favor until we reach that prior support and I debate what the next play will be. More downside, or a retracement? Maybe a renewed uptrend? Who knows?
AMEX:USOShort
by TheProfitcy