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Moving_average

GBP/CHF massive Buy opportunity 100pipsBasically the market structure is still in upward trend, we see a nice pull back to 38.2% fib level and nice triple bottom, we already got a nice confirmation on H4 candlestick (engulfing candle ) that indicate a nice bullish momentum, which is in confluence the the triple bottom, So we need price to break the neckline to continue to our target 1 of 100pips we have a nice risk to reward Follow me for more breakdown like this Thank you so much
Long
by ShinForex1
Let the FOMC front running begin.It's not Deja Vu that brings us back here. It certainly feels like Ground Hog day in the markets every time Jerome Powell speaks. All the Trend Lines and Moving Averages Converge for the next FOMC meeting. Bond Bears are calling this latest move in markets as a mistake to price in 2 rate cuts in 2023. The game has changed in the past year. In fact, It's no longer a game but a single flat line at 4k Hedged Equity Funds are positioned with supportive flows. And S&P Dealer Directional Gamma Exposure remains supportive and consistently positive. A Pull back overnight in Futures indicates to me that FOMC will be done at around ~3960 ES. At or around the 20D converges with 50D and 200D. 9D VIX has been telling a different story than stocks and this pullback was expected days ago. 9D VIX is up 50% in the last 7 days from a Low of 14.82 up to 21.84 30D Vix is down 10% in the last 7 days from a High of 21.21 down to 19.19 Naive SPX (total open interest) gamma is 3990 and should be considered a volatility trigger below. Volatility is expected below 4000 and I'll update if S&P dealer directional gamma exposure goes negative this week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME
SPX - expect short term pullback (bearish divergence)The markt has been more bullish than bearish lately. However it is getting overbought in the near term and a bearish divergence is now seen on the daily chart. Hence some pullback from here will not be too surprising. Bearing in mind divergence usually result in only a short term trend change lasting several candles. I am looking at possible near term SPX support at 3885 (recent pivot low). While SPX managed to break above its 200 day moving average and even the longer term trendline resistence that had proven to be a tough one to crack in the past few months, there are still a lot of skepticism especially when "bad" news (eg mass layouts by big techs) still abound. The fact remains that the bigger picture (say 2 monthly chart) remains in a sideway "diamond pattern" consolidation. Assuming the market is indeed on the recovery, It will be weeks (or even months) more before the 200 day moving average can flatten and turn up. Hence, SPX could continue to whip saw around the 200 day MA for a while. There are more and more stocks that are forming/have formed basing patterns, ready (or have already begun) to reverse into an uptrend. The way to navigate this market is to trade those stocks showing high conviction technicals. The more we see such stocks, the more we will be convinced the market is probably turning the corner (albeit it will still be volatile for a while until it becomes too obvious). More importantly is also to have strict exit rules (ie stop losses) in place in case we are wrong. Keeping losses small and letting winners run is the way to go although it is definitely easier said than done. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
SP:SPX
by Juliac
CHFJPY possible scenarios Okey guys, soo CHFJPY is at veery delicate level, tbh I don't have any idea what this pair will do from here, that's why I will wait for more price action and then i'll react to it. So let me go in details about these setups: Setup 1: So 50EMA is on the same level on 1H and 4H, so if we see a breakout to the downside be sure to enter short on the next adequate pullback, maybe something like I've shown on the chart. Setup 2: So, this one is obvious for reasons, BUT if price reach this zone, enter only if candle rejection is shown, that means wicks to the upside especially, in other words be sure to see seller pressure at this level, because there is a big chance to see a continuation to the upside. Setup 3: IF price breaks the DTL, the last significant high and the daily 4HEMA, I'll be looking for any pullbacks for long for sure. I know it is a bit confusing, but right now the price stays at very unclear level, so make sure to react if price manages to do something from above :)
by JivkoXristov
1
CDAY - on the verge of trending up?CDAY had been basing since hitting low on 16 June 2022 (7 months now). It formed a Golden Cross on 17Nov 2022 (2 months+ ago) but continued to trade flip flopped within a sideway range while it's 200 day moving average began to flatten out. With it's 200 day MA having shifted from a downtrend to a flat line, the odds have increased for start of a sustainable up trend in the near future esp when it can start trading above it's last recent hi @ 73. Let see! Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
CLong
by Juliac
NVDA - approaching neckline (bull watch)NVDA was gyrating in a wild and wide base in the last 6 months. On 14 Dec it even went above the 200 day moving average but alas it proved to be shortlived as it began to retace 61.8% of the swing (AB) , forming what is now apparent a potential inverse Head & Shoulders pattern. As of now NVDA is trading above it's 200 day moving average again (a postiive) and a golden cross could happen (although not yet) in the near future (2nd positive if and when it does happen). The odds of a successful breakup is higher than it was earlier. An aggressive trader would buy the next breakup @ 184 (#1 in chart) with initial stop loss below 170 while a more conservative approach is to wait for the 1st pullback after the breakup and only enter the trade as it rebound and starts to surpass the first high above the neckline (#2). The #2 or more conservative way of going long is to wait for the upside momentum to be firmer such that retracements are likely to be less steep by then. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. I may or may not enter into this trade. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Juliac
1
SPX - case for optimismOn Jan 3, I posted that SPX had been trading in a diamond pattern since late May, a potentially bottoming formation in a bearish market. It has been 2 weeks since and this pattern continues to play out. 2 days ago, SPX managed to close above its 200 day moving average and stopped right at the critical longer term trendline resistence again. This is the 3rd attempt testing the 200 day MA as well as the trendline resistence in the past 1.5 months. The odds have increased that it will eventually test the 4100 level in the not too distant future, We may face some resistence at 4100 but the next pullback could be an opportunity to buy the dips, especially if pull backs do not bring it below the 200 day moving average again or formed a higher low. Signs that a new bull could have returned (in the following order): 1. trading above both longer term trendline resistence (black) AND 200 day moving average 2. Golden cross, ie 50day MA crossing above 200day MA. May happen within the next couple of weeks? However, the market could continue to gyrate wildly for weeks more until the 200 day MA can flatten out 3. finally, trading above the 4100 level and by then the 200 day MA could be starting to slope upwards Let's see. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. I may or may not enter into this trade. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
SP:SPX
by Juliac
ETSY- Flag formationETSY has been trading above it's 200 day MA since 10 Nov22 and a Golden Cross since 30 Nov22. The trend is still up despite the steep pullbacks that this stock is prone to. At the moment we are seeing yet another "flag" formation, the next buy will be triggered should it start to break above this flag (124-127 depending on when the breakup occur, if it happens). So let's see! Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:ETSYLong
by Juliac
DIS - Long term support heldA look at the monthly chart revealed that DIS has establised a strong support between 79 - 84 since 2015. This zone has been tested several times (2015, 2016, 2020) and the last time being just recently in the last week of Dec2022. A bullish divergence is seen on it's monthly chart, increasing the odds of a bounce lasting a couple of (monthly) candles. (bullish divergence usually predicts a short term reversal that may last 2-3 candles and does not necessarily predict a longer term trend change). It's probably a good opportunity for long term investors to accumulate at current levels or at any near term dips (as long as it does not breach $79). Bear in mind that it could remain volatile as it has yet to clear above its 200 day moving average. In the unlikely even of the stock breaking below the long term support of 79, then all bullish bets will be off. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NYSE:DISLong
by Juliac
SPX & NQ - Still a mixed bagJust a quick update. SPX closed the year 2022 with a Diamond Pattern. This pattern is potentially a reversal pattern (potentially bearish if it occurs at Market Tops, and potentially bullish if it occurs at Market Bottoms). Where it is occuring now, it could be a bottoming process for the SPX. However, Nasdaq is still the weakest link right now and still looking bearish. A short term bounce could happen for NQ as a bullish divergence is seen but in the larger picture, any bounce right now could still be a "Bull Trap". Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:NDX
by Juliac
DJI & NQ - a tale of 2 "cities"We have DJ that looks to be steadily on the rebound since hitting low on 30 September, climbing above it's 200 day moving average as well as a major trendline resistence by 10 Novemeber and has not looked back since. However, it is the only index that is no longer "bearish" On the other hand, both NQ and SPX hit a low in mid Oct, attempted to rally but failed at it's major trendline resistence around 13-14 Dec and then retraced sharply, with NQ being the weaker of the 2. With such mixed bag, it is no wonder we aren't seeing real fear nor real greed. In fact, DJI's strength has been a silver lining. However, until NQ (tech stocks) can break above it's trendline resistence and 200 day MA and take the momentum lead to the upside, we could continue to be whipsawed between short term greed and fear. So until then, short term traders (long or short) could fear better in current market. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:NDX
by Juliac
DOCU - test longDOCU is looking attractive for a short term trade with near term target @67-68 (18% upside from current price). There is potential for a longer term ride should the stock be able to trade and stay above it's 200 day moving average going forward. Reasons for going Long: 1. On the monthly chart, we can see that DOCU could have formed a double bottom @ 35 2. downward trend has been slowly shifting to neutral with slight upward bias at the moment 3. some accumulation has been taking place in the past 2 weeks+ as with the marked increased in average daily volume 4. recent pullback to 50% fib retracement (acceptable range) 5. bullish morning star formation (trigger for Long entry) Initial stop loss just below the morning star pattern (around 51.50) with near term target at 67-68 (horizontal resistence and 200 day moving average). Potential for a longer term ride with trailing stops. Go long at the next candle as soon as we have price trading just above the close of yesterday's candle with initial stop placed just slightly below the low of the morning star pattern (~ 158). Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:DOCULong
by Juliac
Hodlers Addresses vs Bitcoin Price(3/3) This is the third and final part of my study on "Ownership by Time Held" . The first two parts are in the links below: 👨‍🦲Hodlers: Addresses that have been holding for over one year. These are seen as long-term investors 📈 This indicator always points up. Placing an 8-week exponential moving average, it is rare to see it below it. 📅This only happened on June 6, 2011, February 12, 2018 and December 28, 2020. 🔻Every time this happened, it was a harbinger of the top of the Bitcoin price. So, if by chance the indicator is below the average again, I deduce that the price of Bitcoin will fall even more.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by andre_007
Trader addresses vs Bitcoin price 📝Definitions According to IntoTheBlock , we can classify bitcoin addresses by the amount of time they have held their investments. The classification is done by looking at the weighted average time an address has been holding, split into three groups: 🧑‍🦳Hodlers — Addresses that have been holding for over one year. These are seen as long-term investors 🧑Cruisers — Addresses holding for over a month but under a year. These are mid-term or so-called swing traders 🧑‍🦲Traders — Addresses holding for under a month. These are short-term speculators 📈Graphic analysis There is a positive correlation between the number of traders and the Bitcoin price most of the time. It is interesting to note that the number of traders is at the same level as July 2019, while the Bitcoin price is in the same zone as the 2017 top. 🟢The scenario will be bullish if the number of traders break through the blue rectangle and seek the upper part of the symmetrical triangle; 🔴on the other hand, the scenario will be bearish if this indicator seeks the bottom of the triangle. ⚠️And it would be extremely bad if it broke the triangle below. 📆This week promises a lot of volatility, with US inflation data being released on 12/13/2022, and on the 14th the interest rate release, along with the FOMC projections. 🇪🇺 In addition there will be a hectic agenda in the European Union.
BLong
by andre_007
2