Get started

Moving_average

Hodlers Addresses vs Bitcoin Price(3/3) This is the third and final part of my study on "Ownership by Time Held" . The first two parts are in the links below: 👨‍🦲Hodlers: Addresses that have been holding for over one year. These are seen as long-term investors 📈 This indicator always points up. Placing an 8-week exponential moving average, it is rare to see it below it. 📅This only happened on June 6, 2011, February 12, 2018 and December 28, 2020. 🔻Every time this happened, it was a harbinger of the top of the Bitcoin price. So, if by chance the indicator is below the average again, I deduce that the price of Bitcoin will fall even more.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by andre_007
Trader addresses vs Bitcoin price 📝Definitions According to IntoTheBlock , we can classify bitcoin addresses by the amount of time they have held their investments. The classification is done by looking at the weighted average time an address has been holding, split into three groups: 🧑‍🦳Hodlers — Addresses that have been holding for over one year. These are seen as long-term investors 🧑Cruisers — Addresses holding for over a month but under a year. These are mid-term or so-called swing traders 🧑‍🦲Traders — Addresses holding for under a month. These are short-term speculators 📈Graphic analysis There is a positive correlation between the number of traders and the Bitcoin price most of the time. It is interesting to note that the number of traders is at the same level as July 2019, while the Bitcoin price is in the same zone as the 2017 top. 🟢The scenario will be bullish if the number of traders break through the blue rectangle and seek the upper part of the symmetrical triangle; 🔴on the other hand, the scenario will be bearish if this indicator seeks the bottom of the triangle. ⚠️And it would be extremely bad if it broke the triangle below. 📆This week promises a lot of volatility, with US inflation data being released on 12/13/2022, and on the 14th the interest rate release, along with the FOMC projections. 🇪🇺 In addition there will be a hectic agenda in the European Union.
BLong
by andre_007
2
Cruisers Addresses vs Bitcoin Price... This is a complementary study of this idea: 🧑Cruisers: addresses holding for over a month but under a year. These are mid-term or so-called swing traders. 📈The correlation is positive most of the time with the price of Bitcoin. 🐢However, when looking closely at this indicator, we can see that it has a strong characteristic of a lag indicator (a delayed indicator). ⏳ I'm waiting for this indicator to reach 10 million or if there will be a reversal, to conclude on something. 🎂 And to conclude, December 17, 2022 will be the 5th anniversary of the top of 2017... -------- ℹ️ Clarification: The moving average plotted on the chart is 8 weeks or 55 days (exponential smoothed)
B
by andre_007
NVDA - Setting up (to Long)The semicons have been rising quite steadily since hitting the lows in mid October. NVDA has risen 63% from it's low in October and is now flirting with the 200 day Moving Average and a neckline resistence. Last Friday's candle was an inverted hammer which suggests it could consolidate below the neckline for a while more. With overall market momentum lacking, we are also seeing a fair number of false breakups. Hence always trade a breakup with only "test" positions with tight initial stops just slightly below the breakup levels. A more conservative trader would probably wait for the first pullback from the break up, ensure that the pullback do not invalidate the breakup (eg any pullback that went back below neckline) and then wait to buy the break high of the initial break up (point 4 on daily chart). While this means we are buying at a high level, it also help us avoid many fake breakups which a weak market is often fraud with. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Juliac
The Impact of Economic Factors on the Stock MarketHi there! So, I heard that the economy is in a bit of a rough patch because the FED is raising rates, there's some quantitively tightening happening, and there's a potential recession on the horizon due to a supply shock from the Russia-Ukraine war and China's pandemic restrictions. It looks like we might be heading into a recession, which is sooo not good news. The stock market will definitely be feeling the effects if the index falls below its moving average of 200 days. It's not looking great, I have to say. But don't worry, there are still ways to protect your investments. Some technical indicators you might want to keep an eye on include the relative strength index (RSI), the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator, and the Bollinger bands. These can help you evaluate the strength of the current trend and potentially identify opportunities to buy or sell. Also, outside the SPX index there are still ways to further protect your investments. For example, you might want to consider reducing your exposure to risky assets and increasing your holdings of safe-haven assets like government bonds. Just remember to stay positive and keep an eye on the market!
SP:SPX
by jhnes95
BILI - will the next break up succeed?Chinese stocks have been on a roll recently due to a combination of factors: 1. the potential easing of their zero-covid policy 2. hope that the tensions between US and China could be thawing after the recentG20 summit 3. very attractive valuations Preferably we wait for a breakup and a retest back towards the neckline and with higher lows in place. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:BILI
by Juliac
EL - Strong Price ActionEL formed a bullish divergence on the monthly chart after capitulating on 3 Nov. It then began a "recovery" where there were several attempts to break a resistence zone (228 - 231.5), and finally breaking above on 18 Nov. Alas this proved to be a fake break as it went back below the neckline, eventually finding support only at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of it's recent AB swing. The last 3 candles then showed a decisively bullish momentum in it's "recovery" : a huge bullish candle (30 Nov) on high volume that propelled it above the neckline again followed by small inside day near the previous candle high, and then another strong candle (last Friday) that did a quick retest and strong rebound from the neckline. Clearly it's momentum is bullish now although it could hit into short term resistence when reaches the 200 day moving average in the coming days. Trail stops up according to your trading pesonality (20 or 50day MA, last pivot low, fib retracement levels, trendline support etc). Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NYSE:ELLong
by Juliac
FOREXN1:SWING TRADING - MADE IT EASY - A GREAT STYLE OF TRADINGSwing trading is a style of trading that attempts to capture short- to medium-term gains in a stock (or any financial instrument) over a period of a few days to several weeks. Swing traders primarily use technical analysis to look for trading opportunities. Swing traders may utilize fundamental analysis in addition to analyzing price trends and patterns. Some general Rules before going in the Deep of the Strategy : - Swing trading involves taking trades that last a couple of days up to several months in order to profit from an anticipated price move. - Swing trading exposes a trader to overnight and weekend risk, where the price could gap and open the following session at a substantially different price. - Swing traders can take profits utilizing an established risk/reward ratio based on a stop loss and profit target, or they can take profits or losses based on a technical indicator or price action movements. Rules of entry : Swing trading means " Surfing the trend " Using the Swing points as an entry inside a trend. The Swing point is basically retracements inside an already-started trend. Let's see the picture below. I personally call the Swing point or retracements " V " points. Let's look together. . As you can see the retracement inside a trend looks like a " V " point. In a Bearish scenario, the " V " is upside down meanwhile inside a Bullish trend the " V " is on the correct side. Let's note, the " V " points can look also like " W " or generally is correct to call them a " Pullback " Area. In this example, EUR/USD we can see how the price used the " V " shape as Pullback to continue the downtrend. In the picture below I add the Moving averages, the 200 and the 50. This easy and simple technical indicator can help you to determine the direction of the trend. If the price is below 200, generally it means the price is in a Downtrend, and Vice-versa when the price is above, generally it means is in an Uptrend. The 50 Moving average can help you to understand if the price it's started to grow, and when the moving average crosses the 200, generally it means that the price is started a bullish impulse. You can use any kind of indicator to determine the direction of the main trend, the moving average is one of the most used in this style of trading. As you can see, the moving average, like the 50 in this case, in EUR/USD has been used from the price as a Pullback trigger to continue the downtrend. I explain better... The price inside a Pullback Area or " V " point, in a downtrend, below the 200 Moving average, has used the 50 Moving average as a dynamic resistance and rejected the price in the direction of the main trend. Swing trading as explained use technical analysis to look for trading opportunities. Look how conventional support and resistance can work in this, another clue to add to our idea of entry. Additionally, in our plan of action, we can add some technical indicators, look how the Stochastic indicator can give a clear overbought reversion signal. Not least, the use of the Fibonacci retracement can give the Swing trader a clear metric of entry and exit point with relative stop loss and take profit area. In This last example, we can add together all the previous clues given by the Technical indicators, the use of support and resistances, and adding also Fibonacci retracements as targets for Stop loss and take profits. Remember, Swing traders may utilize fundamental analysis in addition to analyzing price trends. Advantages and Disadvantages of Swing Trading Many swing traders assess trades on a risk/reward basis. By analyzing the chart of an asset they determine where they will enter, where they will place a stop loss, and then anticipate where they can get out with a profit. If they are risking $1 per share on a setup that could reasonably produce a $3 gain, that is a favorable risk/reward ratio. On the other hand, risking $1 only to make $0.75 isn't quite as favorable. Swing traders primarily use technical analysis, due to the short-term nature of the trades. That said, fundamental analysis can be used to enhance the analysis. For example, if a swing trader sees a bullish setup in a Forex pair, they may want to verify that the fundamentals of the asset look favorable or are improving also. Swing traders will often look for opportunities on the daily charts and may watch 1-hour or 15-minute charts to find a precise entry, stop loss, and take-profit levels. Pros It requires less time to trade than day trading. It maximizes short-term profit potential by capturing the bulk of market swings. Traders can rely exclusively on technical analysis, simplifying the trading process. Cons Trade positions are subject to overnight and weekend market risk. Abrupt market reversals can result in substantial losses. Swing traders often miss longer-term trends in favor of short-term market moves. Hope this guide can be useful for everybody.
Education
by FOREXN1
33
SHOP - formed a baseAfter falling more than 80% from it's peak of 176.29 on 19 Nov 2021, SHOP began to range sideways since May 2022, forming a rounded base. There was an attempt break up the neckline @ 45.43 on 11 Aug 2022 but it failed after filling a prior gap that happened on 4th May. It is now close to making another attempt at breaking up and there is a chance it could stall at the neckline (again). However, now that it is crossing above its 200 day moving average, its odds of breaking up successfully in the near future has increased. Long the breakup with an initial stop just slightly below it's 20 or 50 day moving average. Its momentum is strong as long as it continues to trend up along or above it's 20 day moving average. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
SLong
by Juliac
4
Overbought/Oversold Zones RSI + Moving AverageHello everyone! Today, using a simple but working strategy, we will analyze the GBPUSD. Technic It is quite simple to work with the indicator: 1. We are waiting for the price to enter the overbought /oversold zone; 2. We wait for the price to cross the moving average and only then open a position. History If you look at the history, you can see how on December 19, 2019, the price entered the overbought zone and the price crossed the moving average from top to bottom. If you had opened a position at this point, you could have caught a 13% drop. This movement lasted until the price entered the oversold zone. And when the price crossed the moving average, it was possible to open a position. You can close positions the way you want, but if you learn to identify a real reversal, you can catch a good movement. On March 2, 2021, the indicator again gave a good sell signal. This movement lasted for a long time and gave a 12% drop. It was possible to close the position when the indicator gave an ignal to buy. Now the price is rising, after the indicator gave a signal to grow and so far there has been no signal to sell, which means that the position can be held. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have an opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Long
by Lingrid
13
NZDJPY - LONG TRADE SETUPHello everyone 🙂 The good news is that everything is trending bullish and the 4-hour has recently crossed MA 20/50, confirming a bullish bias. On the 1-hour chart, we can see a nicely broken head and shoulders pattern crossing MA 200 with a recent bullish engulfing candlestick closure to confirm our entry. Powell's speech later in the day may have an impact on the trade, but the overall setup and price action appear to be favourable for an upward move.
Long
by fxtraderkristina
MSFT - Potentially bullish on monthly chartAlthough MSFT is still trading below it's 200 day MA, the bullish candle that is forming on it's monthly chart is now screaming "buy". To keep risk manageable, long with an initial stop loss slightly below 234 (confluence of it's 20day moving average and also the 38.2% fib retracement level of its' recent AB upswing). If and when the trade goes out way, trail stops upwards. There are several ways to place our stops depending one's risk tolerance: 1. place a stop loss just slightly below the 20day moving average (smaller losses but also smaller profits as trade could get whip sawed out prematurely) 2. place a stop loss slightly below it's 50 day moving average (to catch a larger move but potentially giving back more profits at the end) 3. wait for a pivot (higher low) to form on the daily chart and place the stop loss just below this new pivot Trading is not just about entry but also about risk management. Multiple smaller losses but several large profits is enough for one to be a (potentially very) profitable trader. p/s if stopped out, look for entry again only when MSFT is at least trading above both it's 20day and 50 day MA. Plus some other compelling signals that might be present. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Juliac
GGRC11 Possible downtrend start Price is below the 20 period moving average and is now testing a support line(light blue 116.68) which is a key support due to the fact that it acted already as support and resistance in the past for a few times. This area is also a convergence point between the support line(116.68) and the 56 period moving average(dark blue) and downtrend line(light purple). If price respect the downtrend line and goes bellow the 56 moving average and reject the support line(116.68) it is possible downtrend start. Strategic I will wait to see if a downtrend start or if the price will revert and continue the big uptrend. If the uptrend is confirm by respecting the moving average, the support line and pass over the downtrend line and forming a higher highs after, I will by in the confirmation to increase my position. If the downtrend is confirmed then I will wait more until I saw another sign to increase my position with a lower price.
BMFBOVESPA:GGRC11Short
by gmm_invst
HD - could it break up soon?HD had been building a base for the past 9 months, forming a double bottom. It began to break above the 200 days moving average on 10th November and had sustain above this MA since. Currently it looks close to attempting a break above a neckline @ 327. However with still much uncertainty and volatility in the market, it is safer to long the breakup with a test-sized position. Any pullback to retest the neckline could be a safer place to increase position size if the neckline proves to be a new support and trailing stops should be in place. There is a chance the market could continue to whipsaw sideways for a while more until more economic data comes in. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NYSE:HDLong
by Juliac
2
Gold Looks Bullish :)Hello friends. today i'd like to analyze gold in daily and 4H charts. lets take a look in daily timeframe we saw a breakout from an old decending channel. this is the first positive point for bull run according to TA. The price record 3 BGD candles in recent week and this is the second + point. now price reach a resistance level in 1770 and 38.2% fibonacci level. but lets take a look at 4H timeframe for more details: we see a strong support level that show Buyers are Stronger than Sellers. and in 1770 level we see some strong candle patterns such as Bullish engulf and Hammer. so i think the price can reach 200MA and 1800 resistance level easily like the green path i darw. and after that we will check condition and analyze the next run. thank you for your attention,please share me your opinion in cooments do you think so???
TVC:GOLDLong
by TraderAmin-KZ
2
RETA - breaking upAfter a huge plunge in Dec 2021, RETA had been consolidating in a wide range for the past 11 months. It's 200 day moving average has begun to flatten out since 27 September and the stock has also started to trade above this moving average since 14 Oct. The 200 day moving average have been tested a couple of times since and has proven to be the support so far (@ 29). Last Friday RETA finally had a close above the long term consolidation neckline @40.65, on good volume, with Golden Cross about to materialise soon. The stock is a long with initial stop loss just under it's 200 day Moving Average and recent pivot low (currently @ 29). Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
RLong
by Juliac