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Bearish Divergence on Daily BTC Chart and SMA200/W ResistanceIf we look at the current situation, we are faced with an unexpected rise in the BTC table, considering both the USA inflation data, the global markets and the US Dollar Index. We've come to the resistance zone of an already rising channel, as if that wasn't enough, there is a weekly period death cross presence. In addition, there was a serious negative mismatch between the price and the relative strength index in the daily timeframe. Considering these data, it would not be surprising if the price tries the channel subband $18.5K from this point.
Short
by the6ylal
Pivotal week (or 2) ahead for the S&P The S&P500 / ES is sitting right at a critical point which I believe will break this week or next The weekly chart shows that the S&P is now above most key moving averages, including the 200 moving average (displayed in black), the 20 moving average (displayed in white) and the 50 moving average (displayed in yellow). Also it has broken above the upper resistance trend line (displayed in red), these are all obviously very bullish but a few major headwinds remain that may upset this upwards momentum. Price last week touched the 100 moving average (displayed in blue) but then rejected back down to end up finishing right at the Fib Extension 0.236 level. Ironically the 100 moving average has been a menacing level that has been difficult for the S&P to break through, 7 weeks ago and 21 weeks ago exactly the same touch and rejection of the 100ma occurred. Further to this we are about to enter one of the most bearish seasonal periods of the year for the S&P, I've included a seasonality indicator in my chart which shows 3 year, 6 year and 9 year tendencies and they all have exactly the same downwards pattern starting in February. The indicator below the Seasonality scan is RVI (relative volatility index), this is good for measuring both the volatility along with direction. Inline with what the market has been doing the past few years the RVI had been generally trending up and created a support line that was largely unbroken from end 2018 - Jan 2022, and since been broken the RVI is now showing a downwards trend and instead of a support line there is a resistance level over head that price is close to approaching. The last indicator on the chart includes Larry Williams Vix_Fix which had turned red recently (2 bars/weeks), signalling we are in historically low volatility period in the VIX, most traders know that large moves often follow periods of very low and/or contracting volatility. This last indicator also includes a display for the bond yield curve and this is currently shown in the maroon/deep red which confirms a fairly long period inverted curve which is also known as a precursor sign of recession and market sell off. The recent closed weekly candle was an indecision candle so this week that is coming or perhaps the one that follows should tell a lot about where the market will be heading over the course of the next few months A bullish bias would mean Price this coming week will disregard the seasonal bearish tendency and instead break above both the 100ma and the 0.236 Fib and close the week above these levels. A bearish bias would mean Price has closed back below the resistance level on the chart (both price resistance & RVI resistance) and price has tracked the normal declining seasonal pattern that plays out around this time of the year. I see more chart evidence of a coming decline than an incline but in any case we still need to wait for direction confirmation which should look like one of the above scenarios. So it is time to pay very close attention to the charts and In the week that follows the market direction confirmation signal I suspect we will see some large and fast moves of either sideline money coming into the market to cause one last blow off top before some kind of recession sell off later in the year or heavy selling as these key levels get rejected and the seasonal sell of takes hold.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gary_trades
Consider the Long-Term ChartI'm not going to call if the bottom is in or "not so fast" but just want to point out that we may only be halfway through a significant long-term downturn. It's concerning to me that RSI has broken significantly below 50 for the first time since the market recovered from the lows in early 2009. It's also concerning that price looks like it wants to retest the 50-mo. EMA after seemingly finding support a couple months ago. There's still considerable downside risk to the 200-mo. EMA where it has found long-term support in the past and it also happens to currently line up with a double bottom with the covid panic low from early 2020. Will it go down to the 200-mo EMA now? I'm not sure, I'm just saying that it could and you need to be prepared for that. I do know that if it continues to drop it would be a blood bath down at those levels and also a great long-term buying opportunity in my opinion (it could find support above, at or below the 200-mo EMA and an interesting level would be the top from the tech bubble around 2000 which lines up with a period of sideways consolidation from 2015-2016.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by PatientContrarian
GBPAUD - short opportunityHi everyone and Happy Friday! The GBPAUD is trending towards the downside on the main higher time frames. The weekly chart is attempting to develop a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern and is aiming to break below the 20 and 50 moving averages. This bearish scenario is also visible on the daily chart. The 4-hour chart is providing further confirmation of a entry point with a bearish engulfing candlestick closure and a new 4-hour low, indicating incoming bearish pressure. However, it's important to have in mind that a pullback towards the moving averages may occur before the continuation of the downward trend. Overall, the analysis suggests that the GBP may be weaker compared to the AUD.
Short
by fxtraderkristina
SPX - Buy the dips?SPX is approaching a critical resistance @4100 (long term trendline / 200 day moving average) and a near term pullback is certainly possible from here. However, looking at the bigger picture, any pullback this month could be an opportunity to long some stocks with the right technicals. Yes, Fed is pivoting. However, interest rate could stay high for some time, the yield curve is inverted and the economy could be dipping into recession etc., etc., could we be in a major bull trap or could the market have already factored in these scenarios? On the technical front, I am seeing more and more stocks that appear to be bottoming or have bottomed. The market could remain volatile for a while more but it is probably time to look for opportunities. I will remain cautiously bullish as long as any dips in the near term do not go below 3900 (50% fib retracement of the recent AB upswing on daily chart). Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
SP:SPX
by Juliac
6
Knowing if a trend is still valid or is beginning to failin the above image you can see, that when all moving averages do not cross or overlap one another, this indicates a strong trend/price sentiment in this direction, even after a major pullback, you'll notice the moving averages still dont cross or overlap. also on the chart image ive touched upon the very popular 1, 2, 3 trading pattern and highlighted that there's a not so obvious 4 reset wave before the 1, 2, 3 pattern starts again, the trick is check to see if the phase 4 wave causes any of the moving averages to cross/overlap before setting up your 1, 2, 3 move! because if they have crossed or one of them is overlapping the other, this signals the trend is weakening and the market may be looking at beginning a range or and new trend in the opposite direction.
Education
by algoquantix
EURUSD DailyCan I just say WOW at the rejection at the 200MA ?!? Honestly this is playing out how I would like to see the market. I recognize a price action candle, the shooting star. The shooting star often occurs when the market is buying and begins to react at some level of resistance. I am identifying my level of resistance as the 200MA. I would like to see todays candle (11/16) to close as an engulfed candle. ONLY IF todays candle close with momentum, the market is likely to continue to sell… But as of right now, I am going to sit on my hands and continue to watch the market form.
by Vanaaad
The Future For Gold (XAUUSD) Here I've provided my prediction for the future of gold. I do believe the DXY will make a final rally to the upside, making contact with the most recent weekly resistance. Based off the fibs I predict price of XAUUSD to move to the upside next week, maybe even the following week. Hopefully giving us that sweet rejection off the 61.8 fib level. Once I get the break of my 50 EMA I will be entering for the sell and holding until the bottom of the channel we are currently in. Feel free to leave your thoughts and opinions in the comments. OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TheMoneyMavs
2
Total market cap not looking goodHello! I have been busy studying alot about TA . Seems like this is the first post of mine on this year.. Total market cap trying to break the 200MA on weekly which it has never been broken . If we lose the 760 area next target is 440 . 45% drop! Bitcoin already used the same 200MA as a resistance . First time ever. I do think we still need to cleanse the markets more. When all the moon boys has went to hiding and quiet it is time to get greedy . Risk assets not looking good at all and dollar stays strong. When fed starts to pivot with rates, markets are going to sniff that and turn Get ready for possible more pain and start to get greedy slowly When buying long term remember the long term view. Crypto ain't going away. Ps. If you want to learn TA =technical analysis and find great mentors/traders tell me. I can put a list of few ones who I have learned really a lot. I don't know where I would be without them. -Jebu
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by PalenTrade
8
Buy XRP around the zoneBuyers did not tolerate breaking of the level! Generally, by breaking a level down more sellers join the market, if buyers be able to move the prices even higher the broken level it's a good sign of their power. some classical analyzer may find a Head and shoulder here! Bulls are so strong and price react bullishly to the dynamic levels. I'll buy some XRP around the level and keep them until the VP line is touched. If it easily broke the line I'll keep them to the next level but if I see enough rejections in LTF I'll sell them all. In case of SL I suggest the stabilizing under the trend line as the SL.
BINANCE:XRPUSDLong
by AliSignals
US Dollar Reversal Signals Brew, But Will the Key Uptrend Hold?The DXY Dollar Index confirmed a breakout under a near-term rising trendline from August as prices confirmed a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. This might open the door to some weakness in the near-term. But, will the dominant uptrend hold? Keep a close eye on the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). These could reinstate the dominant upside focus. Resuming the uptrend entails clearing the 78.6% Fibonacci extension at 110.9316. That exposes the 100% level at 112.643. TVC:DXY
TVC:DXY
by QM_Dubrovsky
JICPT| USDCNH is likely to test 7.01Hello everyone. USDCNH has been moving sideways for the past 3 months until the weaker-than-expected July economic data released this week. In addition, the unexpected rate cut to MLF gave a boost to the pair. The offshore Chinese currency fell sharply against the dollar by over 700 bps. Now, it pulled back from the previous high around 6.83. Technically, the all my moving averages are heading to the upside, with a quick retest of my long key MA. That may indicate that previous high is likely to be penetrated. By the measure move method, the upper range after the breakout is 7.01. The weaker Renminbi can help China's export, offsetting the impact of sluggish domestic demand. Companies and consumers are reluctant to take on more debt amid fresh Covid flare-ups. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
Long
by JICPT