BTC At Critical Support on 200DMA + RSI Way Oversold₿itcoin testing critical support on the 200DMA 🚨
Last time it closed under on July 4, 2024 it ranged for 101 days.
RSI hasn't been this oversold since August, 2023.
Last time BTC was at this RSI level and closed under the 200DMA it ranged for 60 days.
HOWEVER, the only time BTC has ever closed under the 200DMA on a Post-Halving year was in May 2021, where it then went on to rally to another new ATH.
I'm personally buying here 💯
Moving Averages
Nucor May Be StallingNucor has trended lower since April, and some traders may expect another push to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the November 6 gap after Donald Trump was reelected U.S. President. The steelmaker failed to hold that bounce and proceeded to a new 52-week low by early January. It then rebounded and may have made a lower high.
Next, prices are stalling at a low from October 2023 where NUE bounced several times in late 2024. Has old support become new resistance?
Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is below the 100-day SMA. Both are under the 200-day SMA. That may be consistent with a longer-term downtrend.
Finally, MACD just turned negative.
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XAUUSD 1hr
The 5th Elliott wave has concluded. In the 1hr timeframe the 4hr ZLSMA (Length: 32) has broken the 200 EMA and 200 SMA and the chart has pulled itself back up to the EMA and SMA and then it's broken off the 4hr ascending channel. My opinion is that it will correct until the Fibonacci 0.5 mark ($2769).
Target 1: $2821 (Fibo 0.3618)
Target 2: $2769 (Fibo 0.5)
Stop Loss: $2921
This is not financial advice, I'm simply sharing my own analysis and opinions. Be cautious and conscious with your trades and don't take my word for it.
$SPY February 27, 2025AMEX:SPY February 27, 2025
60 Minutes.
The move to 598-599 and a retrace to 592-594 levels was completed yesterday.
Now for the fall 613.23 to 589.56 i expect a retracement around 598-600 levels being 38.2 and 50 percent retracement moves.
At the moment is trend is down.
Uptrend only above 608 levels.
601-604 levels should be a good level to short again.
In 60 minutes, we have 50,100,200 averages converging around 603-604 levels which is the next area of resistance.
Bitcoin at Key Support: Could We Be Nearing the Bottom?Bitcoin is at a critical support level, bouncing off the 200-day moving average. The Fear & Greed Index is at extreme lows, bearish sentiment is peaking, and Trump’s crypto policies could fuel a rebound. With strong technical and psychological factors aligning, is this the turning point? Watch for key insights and price levels to watch!
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GOLD Trendline Break ShortGold has just broken the upward trendline that has acted as support numerous times (At least 6). It has just been broken after a few failed attempts to rally further. We have also lost the 100 moving average (on the 4H time frame)
I believe that Gold is stalling out ahead of the psychological figure of $3000 as it has done previously at $2000 to give an example.
Stop Loss above the red downward trendline that has been formed from the highs that will act as my trailing stop loss.
Take Profit level is a confluence of Fibonacci retracement levels and the upward trendline that I believe could act as support if the red downward trendline doesn't get broken first.
BTC DOWNTREND FOLLOWSThe cryptomarket is facing a sell-off pressure as Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has fallen below the $85,000 mark to trade at $83,740 on Thursday during intra-day, which is over 20 per cent down from its January peak of $109,350. This is the largest sell-off in 2025. Experts said ETF outflows and US President Donald Trump’s EU tariff threats have pressured the market, and Bitcoin (BTC) might experience a potential drop to $74,000.
As of 10:38, the live price of Bitcoin stood at $84,916.18 per (BTC/USD) with a current market cap of $1,683.86B. The 24-hour trading volume is $67.37 billion. Bitcoin declined by 4.61 per cent in the last 24 hours with a circulating supply of 19.83 million, according to binance.com.
EXPECT TO 78,000 AND BELLOW
NIO Has A Broken Neck! Can we take advantage?NIO is showing a textbook head and shoulders (Bearish) pattern. It is characterized by a change in market structure where the left shoulder forms the initial high and low, the head signifies the continuation and the right shoulder is the failure in the resumption of the trend. In this chart, we notice that the right shoulder fails to make a new high and proceeds to make a new low. By connecting the pivot lows, we can identify a H&S neckline near the $5 mark. We recently fell below this line which is our first signal to enter the short.
Looking for additional confluence, we note that there was significant support that was broken in the pink zone which stems from March 2024. That zone has been tested several times since March 2024. We have also broken below the 200ma which confirms the long-term downtrend. On the most recent candle, we broke below these key levels with above-average spread and above-average volume suggesting strength to the downside. Finally, since Trump has won the presidency, he vowed to increase tariffs, especially for China. This is terrible fundamental news for the Chinese stock.
Aggressive traders may take the short as is and may ride the short to the first target (~$4) which I have identified as a potential support area. There is a second target which is projected by the head and shoulders pattern (~$3.50)
For more conservative traders, we can wait for the retest of the neckline which happens to coincide with the 200 MA and sits just above the former support turned resistance. I like this level better because it provides a better risk-reward ratio.
Key notes: Earnings are coming up in a few days. This could be a volatile event that works in the trade's favor or works against it. Please be aware of that risk while trading.
GLTA
$SPY February 26, 2025AMEX:SPY February 26, 2025
15 Minutes.
100% extension move was completed yesterday. Now i expect a bounce before next fall.
For the rise 589.56 to 596.67 holding 593.5 - 594 is important for 597.5 to 599 levels.
We are still in a series of LL and LH pattern and below 200 averages too.
For the extension 589.56 to 599.96 to 593.02 I have a target 597-598 levels.
That should be a good level to short again.
(ETH) ethereumWhen can we expect to see reports on the new concepts about Ethereum in the future?
Buying mode, price of Ethereum well under the dotted line. Ethereum has not had a strong position for some time and is likely to find profits. One large drop in price does not usually follow another than another than another and especially not with such large volume and capital. Am I in control of the flow, no. Do I have billions to make heavy movements, no. Am I interested in the progress of Ethereum despite holding little to no value in Ethereum, yes.
btc finds 200 ema support, whats next?As I have been posting in these "Ideas" for the past few weeks about market direction and where the price for BTC will go. It now has come to pass where the 200 EMA has been tested and support has been found, It however has not generated any relief among buyer sentiment unable to push price above the previous days close leaving the digital asset to continue to bleed out and cause positions from all the 93k Bulls to liquidate.
Its a shame people cannot make the connection that the only way price can go higher is to go lower in a market. That Is why I am going to warn people about where we may go , I believe the 200 EMA will be tested again and if support is broken it will send is into the low 70k area where there are open orders and It is possible this may happen. The Bull market support band is the 200EMA however there may be institutional money that may drive us down to cause massive liquidations and fear and panic among those holding bags while greed causes big players to push more into the fringe of where we can maintain a recovery.
Watch for a retest of the 200EMA . which is a bit of a fuzzy zone , use the high and low to denote the area for support as well as keep an eye on the RSI and CCI , we are also watching on balance volume drop off which is not a great sign that there is market confidence however this will play out over the weekly and the weekly candle will start to materialize in the next few days.
MSFT ChannelBetween January 2023 and July 2024 NASDAQ:MSFT had a nearly 100% expansion showing aggressive growth. For the last 8 months however, MSFT has been trading sideways in a channel between ~$455 and ~$400. During the last earnings report future growth guidance came in under expectations. Technically, there was large gap down following earnings and a retraction to the 21 EMA offering a short entry window. I took a short position here with a stop loss placed above the 21 EMA, I will be adding to this position when price breaks the support of $400 and again if it continues to fall and retracts to the $400 level. First target is the previous $373 support level, second target is the $330 support level.
BIDU: MAs coiling tightly + Double bottomI really like BIDU stock here, so I entered more than my usual size.
What I like about this setup
- MAs coiling super tightly across all timeframes. 10, 20, 50, 100, 200. Tight MAs represent volatility contraction and this often leads to volatility expansion, i.e. large price movements. All the MAs are now within 5% range. When the MAs crossover, its like this combo nuclear reaction igniting one another, propelling the stock upwards. And its possible you get a sustained one.
- 10 and 20 MA are already above 50MA. short term, we are up. And now I'm waiting for the next nuclear reaction to happen.
- We have attempted to break above this 94.5 key resistance for many times now. If we do, easily 113 as price target.
- Double bottom formation. Yes, its not a double bottom yet since it hasn't break above the neckline. But that false breakdown earlier gave me extra confidence that we have bottomed.
- Fibo retracement at 50% line now. Good support. (did not draw it in, else it becomes cluttered)
- Tailwind from China internet sector.
When will I stop loss
- Break below previous low at 96.8 and stay below 50MA for 5 days.
Others
- I note that Im front-running this a little. If it goes to 92.5 above the flag, and 200sma, it would be better confirmation. But I entered with options, so I wanted a better price before the pump actually happens.
Downtrend in Applied Materials?Applied Materials has struggled since the summer and some traders may see further downside in the provider of chip equipment.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher lows between late December and mid-February. Earnings beat estimates on February 13, but conservative guidance pushed the stock below that line. The result is a potential bear-flag breakdown.
Second, short- and long-term moving averages may show bearish trends. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed under the 100-day and 200-day SMAs in September. Two months later, the 100-day SMA slid below the 200-day SMA.
The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed under the 21-day EMA two weeks ago. MACD has also been negative.
Finally, you have the big event of NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia earnings tomorrow afternoon. Given its importance to the entire semiconductor industry, AMAT could be especially volatile around the news.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
$SPY February 25, 2025AMEX:SPY February 25, 2025
15 Minutes
As expected, AMEX:SPY retraced and fell back. Took support at 596 levels.
592 is downside target for the extension 610.70 to 596.48 to9.47 to 603.02.
For the fall 603.02 to 596.48 AMEX:SPY retraced 78% to around 601 levels. And made nearly double bottom around 596 levels.
At the moment upside is limited to 603 levels being 20 averages in 5 minutes.
Trend is down until 610 is taken out.
I am cautiously calling the bottom on NVOIt might be a bit early to call this a bottom, especially given the unpredictable market, but I’m noticing a few key signals aligning:
The 8/21 curl following a double bottom
A break above the 50-day SMA occurring on a red day like today
Momentum shifting positive and being released from a squeeze
That said, stay cautious—this setup has tricked me before.
$SOL RSI Most OVERSOLD Since June 2023!Still no clear signals on CRYPTOCAP:SOL yet.
However, the RSI on the DAILY IS THE MOST OVERSOLD its been SINCE JUNE 2023.
I personally opened a long here.
Not for the faint at heart.
Could dip down to $133’ish and range between $146.
We DO NOT want to range too long in this area as you can see there has already been HEAVY consolidation.
Look for a V-Shape reversal trying to reclaim that ~$157 level for bullish confirmation.
Nifty formed falling wedge on daily time frame - Towards 20,300On daily time frame, Nifty has falling wedge breakdown.
It has good support at 20,550 on weekly closing base.
Below 20,550 it will have following targets possible,
22,000 / 21,680 / 21,300 / 20,900 / 20,600 / 20,300
Technically 20,300 possible to fill gap on day time frame.
DEEP - Finding The Next Trade SetupDEEP recently took out the January 13, 2025 low at $0.12345 with a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP), followed by a successful retest. This led to a bounce that hit a key level at $0.12141, presenting a solid long opportunity with minimal risk.
After this, the market turned bullish, forming a 5-wave structure and rallying to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.18643 (measured from the $0.20473 high to the $0.11922 low). This was a key take-profit zone for longs and a great short opportunity.
Adding confluence, the anchored VWAP also acted as resistance just above at $0.19, offering another low-risk short setup. Additionally, a key resistance level at $0.1809 further reinforced the rejection zone.
Current Price Action & Short Setup
From the 0.786 Fib retracement, DEEP retraced 20% downward, nearly touching the 0.618 retracement of the 5-wave structure before bouncing. Now, price is finding resistance at the golden pocket (0.618 at $0.17347 and 0.666 at $0.17534) of the recent drop, aligning perfectly with the daily 21 EMA ($0.1757) and daily SMA ($0.17347).
This setup suggests an ABC corrective move is forming.
Using the trend-based Fibonacci extension, the 0.786 extension aligns with the 0.618 retracement at $0.1457, creating a strong short setup.
Short Entry: Between $0.17347 - $0.17534
Target: $0.1457 (0.786 trend-based Fib extension / 0.618 retracement)
Stop Loss: $0.1845
Risk/Reward: 2.5:1
There’s also potential to extend the target to the 1:1 trend-based Fib extension at $0.13733, but this would depend on price action.
Potential Long Setup
If price reaches the $0.1457 support zone, this could present a high-probability long opportunity.
Entry: Around $0.1457
Risk/Reward: 2:1 or better, but confirmation is needed before executing the trade
HSI breakout: 21377 price targetHSI has broken out of the descending daily trend line, and also found support at the 200. day EMA.
With a potential bottom having formed, the first price target for the coming move up would be 21377 which price previously rejected twice from.
Beyond that, price can target 22686, then 25048 which is the top of the golden pocket, being the 0.65 retracement of the entire move down from ATHs.